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Monday, April 21, 2008
Mets Geek: Peterson: Interview: Tom Tango
New findings from the Tango Investigation Group…
Do you think it’s important that baseball researchers share findings and discuss process? Or can interesting and worthwhile things happen when someone like Bill James does his own thing and isn’t really aware of what others are doing?
Sure, interesting things can get done, but also a whole lot of redundant and terrible things too. Bill James has a few pieces that are simply things that I have already done. Why he would waste his time doing that, I don’t know. But that’s the way he is, by his own admission. Sometimes, you get a pearl out of it. So be it. Researchers at The Hardball Times is the model, as far as the web is concerned. I get immense satisfaction of reading sabermetric works. You’d think all researchers would think like that.
You always seem to be working on the next great statistical project. Tell us what you’re working on right now.
I’ve got a list I posted on my site somewhere called Tango On Demand. Next up for me is creating a Fielding Database. Normally, I would be tacking the PITCHf/x data, but (a) there’s a lot of bright people already there, so I’m happy to be an interested observer at the moment, and (b) the data is still in flux, and I’d rather work on stable datasets.
Repoz
Posted: April 21, 2008 at 01:32 AM | 26 comment(s)
Related News: General, Sabermetrics, Projections, ZIPS, NY Mets
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Not sure how this will affect the PITCH f/x sleuths out there, but I have it from a very credible source that MLB Gameday will remove the PFX data point from all pitches later on this year, most likely in the second half of the season. They'll still post the type of pitch, speed at release, break, and result, but will no longer share the pfx data. [Edit: the reason, of course, is that some powerful people within baseball complained about the release of the pfx data, the same way the umpires union complained about the imposed strike zone on mlb gameday and had it removed... but this time, it wasn't the umps complaining]
I think it wasn't so much that fielding was thought to be overrated, so much so as we didn't have a good idea of how to measure it, so statheads thought it was better to give it less weight in valuing a player. Similar to how in fantasy auctions, you generally want to spend most of your money on hitters. It's not that pitching is less valuable than hitting, it's that it's less predictable, so investing your resources there makes less sense.
At least that's where I was at.
That’s true.
Actually, I give some credit to BIll James' "Rolling in the Grass" essay in his managers book.
Um ...
All three words?
So you're saying Bradley and Cameron aren't guys?
is different from
( NOT Gutsy AND NOT White AND NOT Guy )
First, the claims of fielding superiority were much more stretched back then. Even the non-stathead types are much more careful nowadays about making claims that a player saves a run or saves two hits a game. Early stathead fielding measures in the early-mid 90s had a run prevention distribution similar to today's. Of course statheads are going to say it's overrated when they're dealing with people that think a good fielder can save 50-100 runs a year.
It was also still the early days of a new offensive era and a lot of analysts were slow to realize that the days of being able to carry a glove man with a .550 OPS were gone.
Also, Ken Phelpsers were more common as Japan wasn't as viable an alternative for AAA players as it is today. It's one thing to replace a mediocre-hitting good defensive guy when you have Roberto Petagine or Ralph Milliard or Tom Evans to replace them with essentially for free (ignoring for a second that Evans was the Human Injury Machine), but good offensive fringe players are more expensive now that they're going the route of Greg LaRocca or the aforementioned Petagine and making a few million a year in Japan.
Actually, that's Chris Snelling.
-- MWE
No, I'm not even certain Snelling's even human. He's like some Styrofoam Baseball Robot prototype that the Japanese made.
Nick Johnson?
Alex Escobar?
Even the early 90s work of DA/DR didn't sway people very much - I say that because when I got on in 1996, that was what I heard. Until I started doing my fielding analysis with Runs Saved, and posting that on rsb, it was still pretty common to think that a great glove couldn't make up for a bad bat. It's essentially demonstrated so now. I used Rey Ordonez as my example, and he couldn't, but a fielder like Pokey Reese could.
That’s true.
Actually, I give some credit to BIll James' "Rolling in the Grass" essay in his managers book.
the last time this came up, I cited multiple posts where this was already on the way out, and Tippett's piece moved the chains pretty far.
When was Tippett's piece? I don't recall from the other thread.
Tippett wrote a summary of it.
Given:
Ax[ ( Pot(x) AND Watched(x) ) -> ( NOT Boiling(x) ) ]
By modus tollens:
Ax[ Boiling(x) -> NOT( Pot(x) AND Watched(x) ) ]
By De Morgan's law:
Ax[ Boiling(x) -> NOT Pot(x) OR NOT Watched(x) ) ]
Therefore, I think we can conclude that your statement is basically correct with a slight alteration:
If it boils, then no one was looking, or it's not a pot, or both.
Anyone care to write a computer sim to test this? This is a question that desperately needs answering!
Not related to anything here, but I think that's a terrific book, really overlooked amongst James' work, I think.
(From what I was exposed to anyway. I'm sure others' personal history is different.)
(From what I was exposed to anyway. I'm sure others' personal history is different.)
This is a pretty good timeline. I'd insert from 1998-2002, Ron Johnson wrote most of Tippett's piece to the general stathead population.
AFAIK, Tippett's bunt piece was like Moneyball - for people in the sabermetric circles, "we knew that".
For example, he gave the breakeven sucess rates for various Mets players on the bunt (Fonzie, 97%, Payton 76%, Appier 56%, Leiter 28%). Against Koufax 1965, an average hitter would have to be a 90% bunter to breakeven. There's alot of stuff where you have a general idea but you wouldn't know exactly everything, but he works it all out for you and considers several parameters and how they interconnect.
It was certainly one of the best things to come out of sabermetrics in 2002.
Right, but my issue with that is, as MGL says, you can't ever account for everything. I think there's a point of diminishing returns in the analysis.
I agree, as do several others here.
To again echo others, what Dan said (11) and what Chris said (16). The one place I've changed over time on this issue is in crediting/debiting a greater percentage of variance from league norms on BABIP to/from the defense than I once did.
Haven't moved on bunts though - always took the singles and errors into account. ;)
***
Tom (this is in response to some of the comments on the site from which this is linked) - I liked your tone in the interview - clear, honest (duh), often amusing answers.
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