Most here believed that Church would outproduce Milledge in 2008; the real kicker here is their relative performance following this season, and if ZIPS is anywhere close to correct, Lastings will have the far better career between the two.

True, it hasn't necessarily _hurt_ the Mets this season.. but that in and of itself doesn't change the fact that it was a horrible, horrible trade.

Milledge has already been benched this season for more antics. I think he is going to end up in some trouble over the course of his career.

My belief was that for 2008, the two would provide even production, meaning the Mets traded Milledge's future for Brian Schneider. That still looks like a bad swap to me, but 2008 certainly hasn't been even so far. Still, I'm awfully hesitant to judge this deal based on a month.

But this is my favorite part of the article.

New York Mets fans never embraced Lastings Milledge, but many on the blogs and radio call-in shows made him out to be another Roberto Clemente after he was dealt for Church and catcher Brian Schneider over the winter.

Who does Delcos believe blogged or called in? Neutral observers?

True, it hasn't necessarily _hurt_ the Mets this season.. but that in and of itself doesn't change the fact that it was a horrible, horrible trade.

Not only has it not hurt the Mets, it has helped them tremendously this year.

Of course, the fact that you think it was a horrible, horrible trade doesn't necessarily make it true.

"Revelation" ... get it?

Could the Milledge deal be another one BTFers hated that Minaya actually got the better off?

What were the others? Haven't most of his trades been pretty clearly a win or loss?

.256/.321/.352, .310 BABIP (24.2 LD%)

Isn't that an absurdly high LD% for that kind of line?

Isn't it still May?

What were the others? Haven't most of his trades been pretty clearly a win or loss?

There was the Seo-Sanchez deal and, to a lesser extent, the Nady-Cameron deal. A lot of people considered Seo a number three type starter and Sanchez just an average reliever.

Cameron's injury in his collision with Beltran made for some mixed reviews regarding the trade but many people here said he should have gotten much more for him. Cameron rebounded from his injury and has performed well but Nady has put up a 116 OPS+ since the trade with averagish defense in right. Considering the difference in salary, I think Minaya got the better of that deal although it was hardly one-sided. Nady is a good player.

My belief was that for 2008, the two would provide even production, meaning the Mets traded Milledge's future for Brian Schneider.

That's a poor way of looking at things. Church won't be a free agent until the end of the 2011 season.

I thought Lastings would struggle a little bit this year against righties which is why I thought Church would be better in 2008. I think Milledge will hit eventually but his defense worries me. I am not sure he can be average in even a corner spot. Church is an excellent defender.

I also have more doubts about Milledge's ability to be a 25-homer guy than I did at the time of the trade.

Cameron rebounded from his injury and has performed well but Nady has put up a 116 OPS+ since the trade with averagish defense in right. Considering the difference in salary, I think Minaya got the better of that deal although it was hardly one-sided. Nady is a good player.

Wow, there is some disagreement, I think Minaya pretty clearly lost that trade.

I'll give you the Seo-Sanchez trade.

Too early to judge

Yes.
Can Church maintain 30.9 LD% and .382 BABIP?

Can Church maintain 30.9 LD% and .382 BABIP?

Probably not but he doesn't have to maintain a .328/.394/.541 batting line either. If Church can keep his OPS+ around .825, he's one of the better rightfielders in baseball because his defense is so good. That's the thing that has surprised me most about him so far. He has caught everything out there in right.

CP, Cameron has put up a 110 OPS+ since the trade with good defense in center. He's been better overall but the difference is small and considering the fact that he was coming off a serious injury and makes much more than Nady, I'd call the deal even or a small win for Minaya. I could see someone disagreeing but I think it is fair to say that Minaya did not get taken in that trade.

I could see someone disagreeing but I think it is fair to say that Minaya did not get taken in that trade.

Cameron was signed to a great contract and put up his numbers in 1318 PAs. Nady put up his in 732. Nady has been worth 13.6 Btruns (10 coming from his hot start this year). Cameron has been worth 22 Btruns. So without adjusting for position, Cameron was worth nearly a win more than Nady in 2 years and a month and worth way more defensively. I guess it depends on how you value the 11.5 million (Cameron made 14 and Nady made 2.5 in the last two years) plus what ever they're making this year difference. I'd be ticked if Cashman had made that trade.

CP, Cameron has put up a 110 OPS+ since the trade with good defense in center. He's been better overall but the difference is small and considering the fact that he was coming off a serious injury and makes much more than Nady, I'd call the deal even or a small win for Minaya. I could see someone disagreeing but I think it is fair to say that Minaya did not get taken in that trade.

Also; would the Pirates have taken Cameron instead of Nady in the Perez trade?

Cameron was signed to a great contract and put up his numbers in 1318 PAs. Nady put up his in 732. Nady has been worth 13.6 Btruns (10 coming from his hot start this year). Cameron has been worth 22 Btruns. So without adjusting for position, Cameron was worth nearly a win more than Nady in 2 years and a month and worth way more defensively. I guess it depends on how you value the 11.5 million (Cameron made 14 and Nady made 2.5 in the last two years) plus what ever they're making this year difference. I'd be ticked if Cashman had made that trade.

First, your math is wrong on the number of PA Nady has had. He has 1128 PA, not 782. Second, the Mets already had Beltran so he was less valuable to the Mets than he was to other teams. Third, the injury was a big deal to me. If you didn't think Cameron's injury was a big deal, then the deal is different. Fourth, Cameron was under control for only two years, while Nady was under control for 4 years. All these factors are important and the 15 million dollar difference in salary to this point isn't chump change.

I don't think you can consider the Perez deal as part of Nady's value anymore than you can consider Sanchez's freak injury as part of his.

Church has always been an undervalued player, especially by the Nationals. The question remains, is he really this good (I don't think so), and how his upside (peak and while under Mets control) compares to the upside (peak and while under Nationals control) of Lastings Milledge. When all is said and done, I think the Nats will come out significantly ahead in this trade.

This is what I wrote on a different board moments after the trade went down:

Church and Schneider are both solid regulars. Church is a better hitter than Milledge today, and Schneider is an outstanding fielder and at least as good a hitter as, say, Torrealba.

But my first thought is that Milledge is too valuable for this to make sense.

I'm happy with that assessment. Still seems right to me. But 6 weeks in, the trade (of course) does seem better. Suppose Ryan Church can keep up an OPS around 850 for a few years - and suppose Milledge evolves into a guy that can hit like Rondell White but remains a lightning rod for criticism and maybe bounces around teams because of it. That doesn't look like an awful trade at all. That is ignoring the acquisition of a "just good enough to start" catcher.

First, your math is wrong on the number of PA Nady has had. He has 1128 PA, not 782.

My bad.

Second, the Mets already had Beltran so he was less valuable to the Mets than he was to other teams.

That's entirely Minaya's fault, he doesn't get extra credit for that.

Third, the injury was a big deal to me. If you didn't think Cameron's injury was a big deal, then the deal is different.

I didn't think it was a big deal.

Fourth, Cameron was under control for only two years, while Nady was under control for 4 years.

I'll take two years of a good starting CFer over four years of a 4th OFer and 12 million dollars.

The only reason this is even close is because of Nady's absurd start this year, something that no one could have expected out of him and something that is not likely to last. I have a hard time accepting that Nady's hot start 3 years after the trade has some how justified that trade, even if the numbers bear it out. However, they do, and I think I'm wrong here, it's much closer than I gave Omar credit for, but I hadn't realized exactly how valuable Nady had been over his last 150 PAs. I don't like it when people assess trades without considering what happened afterwards, and despite the fact that this trade looked awful for the Mets a month ago, I would be a hypocrite if I didn't admit that it now it looks respectable.

Second, the Mets already had Beltran so he was less valuable to the Mets than he was to other teams.

That's entirely Minaya's fault, he doesn't get extra credit for that.

How do you mean it is his fault? He shouldn't have acquired Beltran?

The Mets had Cameron first, then signed Beltran. Maybe you think it's Minaya's fault because he acquired Cameron when he knew was going to be a RF and had less defensive value? But that isn't the case.

Fourth, Cameron was under control for only two years, while Nady was under control for 4 years.

I'll take two years of a good starting CFer over four years of a 4th OFer and 12 million dollars.

But Cameron wasn't going to be a good starting CFer for them. And Nady isn't a 4th OF either. He has put up a 277 EQA in those 1100 PA since the trade. This year the average corner OF has a 271 EQA.

Isn't it still May?

Yes, but season ends My 9th, didn't you know?

Minaya did not acquire Cameron. He was a Met before Omar was hired.



Yes, but season ends My 9th, didn't you know?

Don't be like that. I know it's way too early to judge and said that. Right now, Livan Hernandez has an ERA that is 2.60 runs better than Justin Verlander. Just because it's early doesn't make what has happened so far this season irrelevant. It's just something to talk about.

How do you mean it is his fault? He shouldn't have acquired Beltran?

The Mets had Cameron first, then signed Beltran. Maybe you think it's Minaya's fault because he acquired Cameron when he knew was going to be a RF and had less defensive value? But that isn't the case.

Minaya had Cameron, then he lessened Cameron's value to the Mets by acquiring another CFer. Tell me who else is at fault for that? At no point did I criticize the Beltran signing. I don't see why Minaya should get any bonus points for making Cameron less valuable to the Mets, even if it made the team better.

But Cameron wasn't going to be a good starting CFer for them.

Again, that's because of Minaya's decision.

And Nady isn't a 4th OF either. He has put up a 277 EQA in those 1100 PA since the trade. This year the average corner OF has a 271 EQA.

All of that is his production from this year. The past two years, he has put up slugging heavy OPS+s of 102 and 107. His ZR last year would have ranked last among qualifiers in RF (he's played all of 22 games since the trade in LF and CF), middle of the pack in 06. Nady has 1700 Major League ABs that say he's a 4th OFer and 129 that say he's an All-Star. I'll go with 4th OFer, if he hits .350 all year, you can bookmark the thread and call me a moron in October.

you can bookmark the thread and call me a moron in October.

Why wait for the Halloween rush and be elbowed by the crowds, when you can get your insults in now?

You're a moron. ;-)

Seriously, all this back-and-forth over one deal, that is (after all) a pretty minor piece of the Minaya record. Even if it is an on-field negative (and I think by the end of the year it will be back to that), the money difference brings that at least largely into balance, and it is true that Cameron just was NOT as valuable to the Mets, because he wasn't a CFer to the Mets. Say what you want about "blame" -- that was the situation Minaya faced when he made the deal, and that's all that's relevant to the discussion. So at the very most, he gets a tiny demerit for it.

To the subject at hand: Ryan Church. The meta-lesson from the Nady discussion is . . . if Nady's early season run of Ruthiness doesn't really tell us anything meaningful, than the same is true about Church. He's been great for fewer than 35 games. That's great . . . for what it is.

The Mets had Cameron first, then signed Beltran. Maybe you think it's Minaya's fault because he acquired Cameron when he knew was going to be a RF and had less defensive value? But that isn't the case.

Minaya had Cameron, then he lessened Cameron's value to the Mets by acquiring another CFer. Tell me who else is at fault for that? At no point did I criticize the Beltran signing. I don't see why Minaya should get any bonus points for making Cameron less valuable to the Mets, even if it made the team better.

I mean, I guess. It's hard for me to blame him because he signed Carlos Beltran though. (Using the word "fault" maybe made it seem like more of a shot than you intended.

And Nady isn't a 4th OF either. He has put up a 277 EQA in those 1100 PA since the trade. This year the average corner OF has a 271 EQA.

All of that is his production from this year. The past two years, he has put up slugging heavy OPS+s of 102 and 107. His ZR last year would have ranked last among qualifiers in RF (he's played all of 22 games since the trade in LF and CF), middle of the pack in 06. Nady has 1700 Major League ABs that say he's a 4th OFer and 129 that say he's an All-Star. I'll go with 4th OFer, if he hits .350 all year, you can bookmark the thread and call me a moron in October.

First of all, it isn't "all" this year. He entered this season with a combined 269 EQA (or so, I just weighted his EQAs from the last 2 years, should be close enough.) He's not a great defender, sure, but I don't see how that takes you to 4th OF. And you can't just dismiss his numbers from this year.

Nady has 1700 Major League ABs that say he's a 4th OFer and 129 that say he's an All-Star.

Nady has a career 271 EQA. So he's around an average hitting corner OF, and probably a below average defender. I also don't know what his career before 06 matters, since we were discussing what happened since the trade. Since the trade, Cameron has been a better player but not by a ton. The Mets saved a ton of money in making the trade; so I don't see that it's clear he lost the trade.

Why wait for the Halloween rush and be elbowed by the crowds, when you can get your insults in now?

You're a moron. ;-)

Good point, you'll have to take a number to get your chance to call me a moron by the end of the season.

The Mets saved a ton of money in making the trade; so I don't see that it's clear he lost the trade.

12 million over two years is not a a whole lot of money in baseball terms when you're trying to acquire talent and I already admitted I was wrong in post 17.

I don't see how that takes you to 4th OF.

You don't see how the combination of below average hitting and sucky defense makes a fourth outfielder? You need to look a little harder, then.

Don't be like that. I know it's way too early to judge and said that. Right now, Livan Hernandez has an ERA that is 2.60 runs better than Justin Verlander. Just because it's early doesn't make what has happened so far this season irrelevant. It's just something to talk about.

I didn't mean that directed at you. I was just saying in general, because of the article linked.

You don't see how the combination of below average hitting and sucky defense makes a fourth outfielder? You need to look a little harder, then.

I see that, but for Nady, I see a guy who is an average hitter and while not a great defender, and probably below average, not a sucky one.

Maybe I am wrong; how many teams start 3 above average OF?

Minaya had Cameron, then he lessened Cameron's value to the Mets by acquiring another CFer. Tell me who else is at fault for that? At no point did I criticize the Beltran signing. I don't see why Minaya should get any bonus points for making Cameron less valuable to the Mets, even if it made the team better.

I understand your point, but isn't the lessening of Cameron's value by signing Beltran a demerit that should be applied to the Beltran signing and not the Cameron trade. It's probably parsing things a bit too finely, but moving Cameron to RF was a cost of signing Beltran and everybody agrees that it was an acceptable cost. By the time Cameron was traded though, he was already a RF for the Mets. His value to other teams was as a CF, but his value to the Mets was as an RF. I think the appropriate valuation for Cameron at the time of the trade was somewhere between his value as an RF and as a CF.

This is stupid. "Cowboy popup" just says incendiary things to make himself feel better. I can't believe it's wasted 20 posts.