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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Monday, September 29, 2008Mike Greenberg: CC 4 NL MVPMG 4 ABCENILE
Repoz
Posted: September 29, 2008 at 07:04 PM | 33 comment(s)
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Authorities believe alcohol is involved.
AO
Both literally and metaphorically.
I watched the replay of the post-game-ending-DP celebration. The sheer tonnage involved with Sabathia/Fielder is impressive.
I have been impressed with CC's willingness to do this the past 3 weeks and has been inspiring, I also think that the Brewers have been downright liable in their use of a pitcher that they clearly only view as a player as a rental and willing to literally tear his arm off if it meant playing in the post season.
Going into the year I thought CC and his waistline were the poor bet for a contender to risk 7 years on. After the way he has been abused by the Brewers the last 2 months I would say it would be a train wreck waiting to happen.
On the bright side? Hankee might just be paniced enough now to spend the 5-7 years at 20-25 mil on Sabathia, and that would just make me happy.
Going into the year I thought CC and his waistline were the poor bet for a contender to risk 7 years on. After the way he has been abused by the Brewers the last 2 months I would say it would be a train wreck waiting to happen.
On the bright side? Hankee might just be paniced enough now to spend the 5-7 years at 20-25 mil on Sabathia, and that would just make me happy.
I agree - I don't really have a problem with what the Brewers are doing to CC, but if CC's physique and overused arm do damage to Hankenstein's wallet, I'm even more fine with it.
Any talk of CC for MVP (ludicrous) or Cy (slightly less crazy) benefits from being able to conveniently overlook those first four atrocious starts in the AL, which did unfortunately count for the Indians. Even discounting the AL stats (which is only appropriate, I guess), CC doesn't come close.
To me if you are going to give a big time second half performer in the NL the CY Young over Timmy, that pitcher has to be Santana. Not that CC doesn't deserve praise (and some CY Young and MVP votes), but IMO he should be 4th or 5th in the vote. (Behind Timmy-Webb/Santana).
I'd give it to Lincecum also, with Santana not that far behind and Webb back a bit more. Not sure how Webb can be considered ahead of Johan.
Would you take 34.5 million and a World Series? That's what CC's earned in his career through the end of the season.
Brewers winning pct, post-C.C.: .556
Wow.
I remember in 1985, when the Cardinals and Mets were battling it out for the NL East crown and the right to play in the postseason. In mid-September, the Mets held a slim lead, but the Cardinals edged ahead, and with 4 games to play held a one-game lead. The Cardinals would go on to win the division, eventually losing in the World Series.
The Cardinals had an unassuming lefty without obvious overpowering stuff, but he went 6-0 in September, and 5 times in his final 8 starts pitched at least 9 shutout innings. I say "at least" because in two of those starts he threw 10 shutout innings, including a 1-0 win over those very Mets that pulled the Cardinals into a first-place tie with them.
From July 2, 1985 (roughly analagous to Sabathia's July 9 acquisition) he went 14-1 in 20 starts with 8 shutouts and 11 complete games and a 1.38 era. His team played .651 ball over that span, compared to .589 before then.
And needless to say, he didn't win the MVP award.
Even with those four atrocious starts, CC arguably had a better year than any of the other NL contenders, if you find the extra 19-26 innings pitched over Santana and Lincecum more significant than the 1 and 2 points of ERA+.
Crazy talk. Johan's team didn't make the playoffs so everything he did had was completely meaningless.
To be fair, they weren't .556 in NON-CC starts after the trade. They were .556 in games he didn't start before the trade, .491 in games he didn't start after the trade, and .824 in his starts after the trade.
Tune in again tomorrow to hear Mike Greenberg make the case for Sabathia as NL ROTY:
it frustrates me when inside-the-box guys say "well, he's played in the AL before, so we’re not going to vote for him." C'mon! C'mon! He was 11-2 in the National League, ERA of 1.65. That is the most impressive debut since Fernando. And has he ever pitched for an NL team before this year? No. Which is about all I need to know when picking a rookie.[/Greenie]
I don't think making or missing the playoffs has anything to do with Cy Young voting. Obviously, a pitcher on a good team is more likely to win the award because he's more likely to pile up more wins, but there doesn't appear to be any effect beyond that.
While I agree it's stupid to give league awards to players who spent less than half the season with that league, it would bother me much less if Manny or CC won MVP or CYA than it would if someone like Howard or Delgado won. Because at least the former DID have MVP/CYA caliber seasons, even if it was split between leagues. The latter two didn't have MVP caliber years at all.
The '85 Cardinals were .850 in John Tudor starts after July 2, and played only .594 ball in games he didn't start. Meanwhile the Mets played .614 ball in that same timeframe...
My point was that every year chances are some playoff team has benefited from a pitcher's ridiculous hot streak over the second half, without which there's a good chance they would not have made the postseason. But that pitcher (in lieu of any other obvious candidates) doesn't normally get talked up for an MVP award...
German chemists warn that if Prince Fielder climbs on CC Sabathia's shoulders, the two will collapse into a black hole that will swallow the earth.
No, that's not right. It's just a normal hole.
No, that's not right. It's just a normal hole
Oh, this is pure hyperbole. Fielder on CC's shoulders would do nothing more than shift the earth's precession a half of a degree or so.
From July 2, 1985 (roughly analagous to Sabathia's July 9 acquisition) he went 14-1 in 20 starts with 8 shutouts and 11 complete games and a 1.38 era. His team played .651 ball over that span, compared to .589 before then.
And needless to say, he didn't win the MVP award.
There is one other thing that deserves mention regarding Tudor's 1985, which is that he was not the only pitcher pitching that well, but one of two, and so he didn't stand out in the way that Sabathia did this year. Doc went 13-1 with a 1.41 ERA with 9 CG and 5 SHO in 18 starts over that same time period. The Mets went 16-2 in his starts.
C.C. Sabathia: 11-2, 1.65 ERA 130.2 IP
Francisco Rodriguez: 2-3, 2.24 ERA 68.1 IP 62 SV
Do you give more weight to the fact that F-Rod spent his entire year in the same league or do you give more credit to the fact that Sabathia pitched almost twice as many innings even though he spent just half the season in the league?
I know those who stump for him or Manny Ramirez for post season honours aren’t taken seriously but I’m genuinely curious what is everybody’s take in such a situation--what’s more important; the innings or length of time in the league?
Best Regards
John
CC is 10x a better choice for MVP than Ryan Howard, who is a platoon player. I would vote Pujols, but after that, I'd go CC for MVP. Tiny Tim for CY.
Santana had led the league in ERA and innings pitched. He had a nearly identical ERA+ to Lincecum (164 v 163), pitched seven more innings, had a better WHIP and strikeout to walk ratio. Did the stats guys lock in on Lincecum early (when it looked like Lincecum v Webb) and make up their minds before Santana's scorching September?
I believe there is a tendency to give the tie-breaker to the guy with more strikeouts.
Only one of them is ahead of Ryan Dempster in wins. You can't finish behind him and win the Cy.
Seriously, though, I think you're correct. I hadn't realized the extent to which Santana had closed on Lincecum's rate stats in September - including a short rest start. There has also been a lot of talk about Santana's dropping K rate. I think that has caused some of us to neglect his still excellent peripherals.
That pretty much sums it up for me.
I know it goes against my earlier sentiment, but I'd certainly take CC in this case- I am one of those that devalues (maybe even undervalues) the importance of a closer. I have to say CC's innings/starts would carry much more weight with my vote than F-Rod's length of service, in this example.
His FIP is nearly a run lower and if you consider unearned runs they gave up runs at about the exact same rate while BR has Shea more pitcher friendly.
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