If he signs with the Dodgers, he will get hurt.

If he changes his number to honor Babe Ruth, and signs with San Francisco, will he be three sheets to the wind?

And I just bought a Brewers shirt on Sunday that says "Sheets 15" on the back. I should have held out a year and got it for 75% off.

I mean... is anyone involved pretending there's a chance Sheets might still be a Brewer in 2009? I don't know of any such person.

It's a possibility, albeit a slim one. His last contract came as a bit of a shock, as he was presumed to be a goner.

5 years $80 million. Pass.

I would have tried to get him a few years ago. I am with BeanoCook- pass.

I bet the Red Sox kick the tires on him. A guy that isn't healthy often but kicks ass when he's healthy seems like a Red Sox kind of guy, and after all, their current guy filling that role just croaked, so there's an opening...

Tying in with Sheets is the Sabathia speculation - the Brewers have (somewhat surprisingly) been mentioned as being one of the possible frontrunners if the Indians put him on the market.

The Brewers seemingly can crap bats (often of the defensively challenged sort) at will out of their system (but have little in the way of starting pitching depth at the upper level). They've got that Huntsville lineup that Baseball America drools over - and quite a few of those bats are likely to be superfluous.

So they could move some of those guys, and they could rent Sabathia, take a pair of picks when he walks, a pair of picks if Sheets walks, and have tons of high picks for the second straight draft to replenish the system.

Or we could be subjected to another summer of rumors of Maddux reuniting with his brother.

I hear that the Yankees have Carl Pavano's contract coming off the books this offseason...

NTNgod, that is precisely what I would be trying to do, were I the Brewers and I was somewhere near the wild card lead come mid-July.

I think teams are not going to offer him 5 years cause he's so injury prone, but give him a higher AAV because of it. 4 years at 18. 4/72.

Zack Greinke, Brewers ace.

I think teams are not going to offer him 5 years cause he's so injury prone, but give him a higher AAV because of it. 4 years at 18. 4/72.

Madness, I say! From 2005-2007 Sheets averaged 21 starts a year. And he's very good when he pitches, but not great. Do you really think a solid but not spectacular number 1 starter who starts 21 * 1.5 = 31.5 games a year is worth $18 * 1.5 = $27 million a year?

That can't be right.

Let's see . . . what team would sign an oft-injured, 30 year-old pitcher with a declining strikeout rate to a huge, overly long deal?

He'll be coming to meet them at a stadium named after a bank.

He'll be coming to meet them at a stadium named after a bank.

Or a telephone company.

Ben needn't be "p"i"ssy" about the situation. Melvin's approach is perfectly reasonable. For heaven's sake, if history holds it's more than likely that Sheets goes on the DL in late July to make a few scattered starts in September.

I am more than a bit disappointed that my prediction before the season is coming true. That after three years of frustration Ben is suddenly the Rock of Gibraltar in the rotation. I believe that Ben's injuries were real and that perhaps he wasn't handled the best but still, it lends one pause.

Bah. Brewer fans will work to enjoy it while it lasts and then at his last start at home give Ben a rousing ovation as a sendoff.

And then it will be done.

Sigh........

NTNgod, that is precisely what I would be trying to do, were I the Brewers and I was somewhere near the wild card lead come mid-July

Particularly when the team has a young core, like the Brewers do - a number of those guys tearing up AA don't have any shot of seeing meaningful time in Milwaukee, barring injury or major league players getting traded away.

4/$72 is the offer I would make as well, with one or two option years triggered by games started. A rotation without Sheets next year would not be fun. And I would much rather pay $18 million to Sheets than $10-$12 million for Derek Lowe or the like.

As NTN points out, the Huntsville team is loaded with talent that is near major league ready or should be within a couple of years. The Brewers can afford to pay Sheets so much, because they should be to field a quality roster of position players that aren't expensive. It might mean trading away players like Fielder, Hardy or Weeks, but their production is much more easily replaced than Sheets.

Fistful:

That's crazy money for a guy who has more than a zero percent chance of being stung by a scorpion or contracting sleeping sickness.

That's crazy money for a guy who has more than a zero percent chance of being stung by a scorpion or contracting sleeping sickness.

Yes, that's true. But I'd rather rely on the chance of those crazy calamities happening than the chance of a rotation without Sheets of making the playoffs.

I think last year is a great exanple of what Sheets means to the Brewers. The Brewers cratered when Sheets went on the DL late in the year. Yes, that also points out that Sheets has been injury prone and is a major risk, but the Brewers wouldn't have been in a position to make the playoffs without Sheets. I'd rather roll the dice on Sheets being healthy and get the big payoff rather than cobbling together a rotation that doesn't have a stopper like Sheets who saves the bullpen.

If he signs with the Dodgers, he will get hurt.

If he signs with the Yankees, he'll crash his biplane into the Empire State Building and collect on his entire contract while lying in a coma.

Sheets will get at LEAST 5/$80M, assuming he does not suffer a serious pitching-related injury between now and the end of the season. My guess would be closer to 6/$108M though. First team to offer the 6th year gets him (assuming it's not the Rangers or Rockies, that is).

Is Sheets going to be worth $36M in 2013-14? Considering that, by then, gas will probably be $7.50/gallon, then yeah, he will be.

Sheets will get at LEAST 5/$80M, assuming he does not suffer a serious pitching-related injury between now and the end of the season.

I don't see it. The only pitchers to get that kind of money over the past few years are Santana, Zambrano, Zito, and Peavy, right? So throw out the clearly insane overpay for Zito, and you have 3 of the, what, 5 best pitchers in baseball? Is Sheets really perceived as being in their class?

is anyone involved pretending there's a chance Sheets might still be a Brewer in 2009? I don't know of any such person.

I think it is likely, pending his inevitable season ending injury in August. Its only June, don't assume Ben will be healthy.

Oswalt got a 5/75 extension, I think.

I don't see it. The only pitchers to get that kind of money over the past few years are Santana, Zambrano, Zito, and Peavy, right? So throw out the clearly insane overpay for Zito, and you have 3 of the, what, 5 best pitchers in baseball? Is Sheets really perceived as being in their class?

Well, only one of those 4 deals was an actual FA deal, the other 3 were extensions. I think Zito is a much better comparison than the other 3.

We go through the same thing every year a top player is about to hit FA. Back and forth "No way he gets that much" and "Yes, and here's why" and then we get the Zito and Soriano deals and everyone's surprised. There's so much money in baseball, and guys at this level on the market are few and far between. I'll be shocked if Sheets gets less than $100mil guaranteed.

I don't see it. The only pitchers to get that kind of money over the past few years are Santana, Zambrano, Zito, and Peavy, right? So throw out the clearly insane overpay for Zito, and you have 3 of the, what, 5 best pitchers in baseball? Is Sheets really perceived as being in their class?
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I think free agent classes have shown that who is available in a given year and how many teams are competing for free agents will have more to do with the deal that a player gets than a rational valuation of a player compared to past deals.

Sheets 2004 season was better than Zambrano's, better than any Sabbathia season, better than Peavy because Sheets had more innings in 2004 and Sheets is having a great season so far. Sheets last 3 years have obviously been disappointing, but he did pitch over 200 innings in the three years before that.

I don't know how he is perceived in front offices, but if Sheets continues this season he will have a huge payday. The Yankees alone are probably going to drive up the market because they will be able to get an ace caliber pitcher without giving up their current talent. The only question is whether Sheets will take the most money. There is a hopeful belief among some that Sheets would want to avoid a media circus like New York.

I do think it's interesting that of the pitchers you mentioned, only Zito reached free agency. All others were signed to extensions. Pitchers of Sheets caliber don't often hit the free agent market.

There's so much money in baseball, and guys at this level on the market are few and far between.

I don't disagree with your premise, I'm just questioning whether Sheets is thought of as among the "guys at this level." Especially given his injury history. Just a question.

It obviously helps his case that good pitchers don't tend to hit free agency any more, and the two New York teams will certainly be in the market for starting pitching, among others.

There is NO WAY IN H#LL Doug Melvin offers more than 3 years at 12 per.

If Ben stays healthy for 30 off starts he is gone. Period.

There is NO WAY IN H#LL Doug Melvin offers more than 3 years at 12 per.

If Ben stays healthy for 30 off starts he is gone. Period.
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Is this your opinion, or based on things you've heard? He was willing to offer that to Coco, I don't see why he wouldn't do the same for Ben. Really, if they have absolutely no intention of keeping Sheets they might as well try to trade him for prospects that are more valuable than the compensation picks they will get when he leaves.

I don't see it. The only pitchers to get that kind of money over the past few years are Santana, Zambrano, Zito, and Peavy, right? So throw out the clearly insane overpay for Zito, and you have 3 of the, what, 5 best pitchers in baseball? Is Sheets really perceived as being in their class?

Zambrano got 5/$91 with a vesting option for year 6 without testing free agency.

The Padres bought out three years of Peavy's FA two years in advance for $52M.

Stories regarding both of these contracts mention that they left money on the table by not getting to FA.

Sheets isn't in the class of Santana or Zambrano, but he's closer to Peavy than you might think IMO. Peavy's nominal stats are more impressive because of playing in Petco, but I think most GM's can figure out park effects by now.

I think the most relevant contract isn't Peavy or Zambrano, but Gil Meche. If he can get 5/$55 with a track record of 99, 82, 91, 94 ERA+ in the four preceding seasons, what would Sheets be worth? He has 3 All-Star appearances on his resume, a top-10 Cy finish, and ERA+'s of 117, 119, and 128 in the last three seasons (and a 166 ERA+ thus far this season).

I don't think ANY team wants to go six seasons on Sheets, but some team will go five early in the FA process, forcing all the serious competitors to do the same or get out of the bidding. Maybe the best he can do is five with a vesting option on 180 IP in 2013 or 375 IP in 2012-13 combined, but...I still see some team going the full six for him.

And I just bought a Brewers shirt on Sunday that says "Sheets 15" on the back. I should have held out a year and got it for 75% off.

Don't worry, it'll be retro-cool by December.

The Brewers will keep him through the season.

And then he will become richer via another team.

The only caveat is if history holds and he gets a boo-boo in the second half.

I'm with #23. It seems high upside pitchers like Sheets always get more than you think they should, especially if they are coming off of a productive season. Somebody is going to look at Sheets' 2004 and (potentially) his 2008, talk themselves into believing that his injuries in 2005, 2006 and 2007 were fluke things that he is over and hand him a really big check. I think he breaks $100 mil.

I still think Peavy is better than Zambrano.

And also, like I was saying, he has great upside but poor injury record. Hence no one will go 5 years but the AAV will go high, up to 18 and maybe higher. I'm still calling 4/72. His injury history is too great to get 100 million guaranteed.

I still think Peavy is better than Zambrano.

Thats because you aren't properly valuing their offensive contributions. :)

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

I could see 5/90 myself, but not too much higher than that. The weird thing about the market recently is that there hasn't been a huge distinction between mediocre talent (the Jeff Suppans of the world) and elite talent. Perhaps that's been because players have chosen to re-sign with their current teams rather than testing the market, but even if that's the case, you'd think they could negotiate better deals for themselves. Roy Halladay is going to average $15mm per season the next two years. Is he only worth $4mm per year more than Gil Freakin' Meche? Puzzling.

If Sheets and Sabathia both hit the market this offseason, it will be the first time in several years that two really good starters have hit free agency at the same time. Thinking back, I can't recall the last time it happened. Anyone?

And also, like I was saying, he has great upside but poor injury record. Hence no one will go 5 years but the AAV will go high, up to 18 and maybe higher. I'm still calling 4/72. His injury history is too great to get 100 million guaranteed.

That theory works if and only if the GM who offers the contract has to pay it out of his own wallet. Do you think a GM who is worried about getting through 2009 with his job really gives a flip whether the team is hamstrung by a potentially horrific contract in 2013?

Assuming Sheets gets to 175 IP this season (he's at 104.1 right now) and doesn't have arm surgery, he will get 5 years - no doubt about it. Given that set of circumstances, I'd put the odds at pick'em whether or not he gets a 6th year guaranteed.

I'm so sure of 5 guaranteed years that I'm willing to make a wager to that effect (with proceeds to charity or B-R, of course).

"Let's see . . . what team would sign an oft-injured, 30 year-old pitcher with a declining strikeout rate to a huge, overly long deal?

He'll be coming to meet them at a stadium named after a bank."

I'd actually be OK with it if the Pirates signed him. At least we wouldn't have to see him pitch against us anymore.

If Sheets and Sabathia both hit the market this offseason, it will be the first time in several years that two really good starters have hit free agency at the same time. Thinking back, I can't recall the last time it happened. Anyone?

Hampton and Neagle.

I said two really good starters! The year before he hit free agency, Neagle threw 207 innings of 106 ERA+ ball. The year before, 111 innings of 110 ERA+. The year before, 210 innings of 117 (a good year, granted, but ancient history at that point). Hampton, I'll give you, but not Neagle - he was mediocre at best when signed, and then fell apart.

Just read a note in Jamey Newberg's latest missive...Ben Sheets currently lives in the Metromess.

I'm ready to be at Opening Day '09 in my home Rangers' Sheets gamer...c'mon Hicks.

I'm going to bookmark this thread and bring it out when Sheets signs that huge deal. Don't be surprised when they both happen.

I'm going to bookmark this thread and bring it out when Sheets signs that huge deal. Don't be surprised when they both happen.

Then I'm going to go on record with 16 or less per year.

I was actually trying to be sarcastic/funny with Hampton and Neagle, but I didn't do a good job.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

Oh man, that was funny.

Hampton, I'll give you, but not Neagle - he was mediocre at best when signed, and then fell apart.

Moose was a FA that year as well.

In that case, I think Hampton/Moose wins. Who is this year's Denny Neagle?

I would be excited if the Brewers got CC and they traded LaPorta to get him. Prince is still under control and it is rather easy to replace 1b.

Either way, a proven winning formula the past decade has been Wild Card + 2 aces in the post season = WS Champion (sometimes). With Sheets and CC, Milwaukee has a real shot to make the WC and win the World Series. They certainly have a punchers chance in the post season with 2 real aces.

I take that chance. Milwaukee's window of winning is not forever, it is perhaps 4 years, maybe 5 and one of them was last season.

If CC & Sheets walks\, likely, no big deal. The 4 draft picks would be another haul.

"Who is this year's Denny Neagle?"

Denny Neagle.

From Cot's:

Starting pitchers
The highest-paid starting pitchers, by average annual value:

Johan Santana, $22,916,667 (2008-13)
Carlos Zambrano, $18,300,000 (2008-12)
Barry Zito, $18,000,000 (2007-13)
Jake Peavy, $17,333,333 (2010-12)
Andy Pettitte, $16,000,000 (2008)
Jason Schmidt, $15,666,667 (2007-09)
Mike Hampton, $15,125,000 (2001-08)
Roy Oswalt, $14,600,000 (2007-11)
Mark Buehrle, $14,000,000 (2008-11)
John Smoltz, $14,000,000 (2008)
Roy Halladay, $13,333,333 (2008-10)
Pedro Martinez, $13,250,000 (2005-08)
Randy Johnson, $13,000,000 (2007-08)
Chris Carpenter, $12,700,000 (2008-11)
Bronson Arroyo, $12,500,000 (2009-10)
Kevin Millwood, $12,000,000 (2006-10)

Something in the Pedro Martinez/Chris Carpenter neighborhood (or a little higher adjusting for inflation) seems about right.

Who is this year's Denny Neagle?

Do Derek Lowe's tastes favor meth 'hos?

Then I'm going to go on record with 16 or less per year.

I'm with the murph, here, but if Sheets gets to around 200 IP this year, some GM is going to think it's still 2004 and go nuts

jwb, I think they run to skanky tv announcers, but I think you're right on target.

...more than a zero percent chance of being stung by a scorpion or contracting sleeping sickness.

No mention of Ross River Fever? Too soon?

Particularly when the team has a young core, like the Brewers do - a number of those guys tearing up AA don't have any shot of seeing meaningful time in Milwaukee, barring injury or major league players getting traded away.

I dunno the AA roster, but I look at the MLB roster and I see a young promising 1B who's going to start getting very expensive next year; a young, promising LF who's going to start getting very expensive in 2011; and a 26-year-old RF who's probably peaking at slightly above-average (as a hitter) corner OF and will be arb-eligible in either 2009 or 2010. (Or have I not been paying attention to arb buyouts?) Other than that, I see nothing that would keep me from promoting a promising youngster at any other position. In fact, I'd really be wanting promising youngsters at C, CF and 3B ... and I'd be getting kind of tired of Weeks.

The whole AA lineup, with the exception of the 2B, is raking, and the Southern League isn't exactly a superb offensive league.

a young, promising LF who's going to start getting very expensive in 2011

He's signed for $4 mil in 2011 (and signed until 2015 or something like that)

In fact, I'd really be wanting promising youngsters at C

Yeah, they have a couple of those (22YO Salome .346/.404/.534 at AA, 2007 draftee Lucroy .311/.384/.527 at two levels of A-ball).

CF

Shifting Hart back to CF post-Cameron is a strong possibility, otherwise 21YO Michael Brantley (.320/.403/.409 at AA - Mickey's kid)

3B

Have a couple of those, too (22YO Gamel .373/.434/.630 at AA, 21YO Taylor Green .302/.384/.459 in the FSL)

As I said earlier, the Brewers seem to be able to crank out bats w/o too much trouble. LaPorta would seem to be the most probable to be dangled for any possible mid-season deal (instead of Gamel).

They had six picks of the first 60 or so this past draft; if they end up with a similar bounty this next draft due to defection and picking up a rent-a-pitcher on top of THAT, there's good reason to think they'll be able to restock from dealing a few guys away.

So it's in Nedley's best interests to ride Ben as hard as possible and put him away wet, is how I'm reading this.

When did LaPorta sign?

I was under the impression a player can't be dealt in the first year after he signs as an amateur.

I do envy the Brewers' offensive depth in the minors, though... of course - I also remember when the Cubs' biggest problem was figuring out who from among Eric Hinske, Ryan Gripp, and David Kelton was going to play 3B for the next decade.

When did LaPorta sign?

June 25, 2007 - so that's no problem.

Polish:

Correct. And Ben wants to show teams he can handle the load. It's a boom or bust approach with all parties involved in agreement.

Folks may go "tsk-tsk" but if you take more than a second to ponder the context it makes sense. I have outlined this before so won't bore anyone.

zonk:

I don't recall Kelton hitting .370 in the Southern League with power and walks. The shocker to me is Brantley. I still think his season is flukish. Salome just amuses me. Little squat guy hitting line drives all over the place.

The shocker to me is Brantley. I still think his season is flukish

They promoted him to AA towards the end of last year, so they must see something in him, given his age.

I was surprised when they bumped him up so soon last year.

Little squat guy hitting line drives all over the place.

Bill Madlock.

Hmmm ... b-r lists Madlock at 5'11" ... sure didn't seem that tall to me.

#59 ... the main point I was trying to make is that the Brewers' current MLB roster has 4 holes in it (C, 2B, 3B, CF) -- not holes as in need to be filled right away but as in want replacements no later than next year. Neither Hardy nor (probably) Hart are studs. And their current bench ain't much. So it was the statement (by whoever) that these young kids wouldn't have anyplace to play given the Brewers' ML roster, so you should deal them. LF and 1B are the only spots I'd say that's true.

Which isn't to say they shouldn't deal some kids for help this year, just that a team with a perfectly solid but hardly astounding 103 OPS+ shouldn't be scratching its head over where they are going to find playing time for promising young players. Except for LaPorta obviously.

The shocker to me is Brantley. I still think his season is flukish.

There's nothing flukish about Brantley. He's younger than all but two players at Brevard (Braddock & Periard), despite being a level above them. He's always been a .300 AVG/.400 OBP guy, but has had zero power; this year, the power has come around slightly, as he hit more HR in June than he'd ever hit in his entire career up to that point.

Corey Hart might not be a stud, but he's pretty good. I wish he played for the Braves.

Corey Hart might not be a stud, but he's pretty good. I wish he played for the Braves.

It's funny, because Corey Hart pretty closely resembles Jeff Francoeur's upside circa 2005.

Entering the day, OPS+/Age/Salary

Hart 122-26-$444K
Fukudome 122-31-$7m