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Friday, March 14, 2008

Miles: Hey, Piniella, what’s up with your lineup?

If Manny can read The Secret...why can’t Lou read The Book?

Question: Does Soriano need to get his on-base percentage up, or with the other things he does, is that not a concern?

“His on-base percentage last year was .330 or so,” Piniella responded.

Question (phrased as a statement): A lot of people say that’s not good enough for a leadoff man.

“How many home runs did he hit last year, 33?” Piniella asked back. “Is that good enough for a leadoff man? I think that’s good enough for any spot in the lineup, right? He’s had a lot of success out of the leadoff spot. He’s played on winning teams out of the leadoff spot, including last year’s team. “Is he a prototype leadoff hitter? No, but depending on how your lineup is put together, I think Alfonso fits into any spot in the lineup in the top five or six spots, and you’ve got no complaints one way or another.”

Lou then started getting a little exasperated at the whole thing.

“We’re making too much of this,” he said. “This is the 13th of the month. We’ve still got 2½ weeks to play, and we’ll just take a look at this. I said coming into spring training that we wanted to see Fukudome in the 5-hole, and this frees that situation, too.”

Repoz Posted: March 14, 2008 at 07:14 AM | 15 comment(s)
Related News: General, Chi Cubs

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1. retro-shiite Posted: March 14, 2008 at 09:11 AM (#2712598)

Better Soriano than Theriot, is all I can say.

Sox fan coworker of mine was telling me he heard noise about The Riot batting leadoff; he seemed impressed by the idea for all the usual dumb reasons (he's scrappy, he has good speed).

2. thedad01 Posted: March 14, 2008 at 11:42 AM (#2712717)

Lou may have a point and I am not being sarcastic in asking this.

Does anyone know if there is a calculation as to how many hypothetical walks a player needs to achieve to actually produce the same hypothetical run a home run achieves? In other words, if the prototypical leadoff hitter has a .357 OBP with 13 homers while Soriano was .337 with 33 homers does the 20 additional points in OBP that MAY lead to more runs hypothetically exceed the 20 runs the additional homers (assuming all solo homers) do produce?

Obviously four walks in a row produce a run so, in this case, would the prototypical lead off hitter have to walk 111 times to just match the 20 homer advantage Soriano has? If so, there were only 5 NL batters who exceeded 100 BBs last season (Dunn, Howard, Burrell, Helton and Bonds) and none of them would be considered a lead off hitter.

3. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: March 14, 2008 at 11:50 AM (#2712734)

Does anyone know if there is a calculation as to how many hypothetical walks a player needs to achieve to actually produce the same hypothetical run a home run achieves?

Linear Weights (and Super Linear Weights) are based off the context neutral run values of events like these.

Of course, we're talking about a leadoff hitter so context is going to be important here.

4. retro-shiite Posted: March 14, 2008 at 11:52 AM (#2712737)

I don't know how the math shakes out, but I do know that (1) Soriano is a productive hitter despite his average OBP; (2) he a has long history of hitting better in the leadoff spot than elsewhere, and (3) I'd rather have a productive hitter with an average OBP in the leadoff spot (thus, getting more PAs than anyone else) than a weak hitter. At the risk of stating the obvious.

Look--I don't pretend to think Soriano's an ideal leadoff man, but he's hardly a drain on the offense hitting leadoff--he just provides his offense in a different form than the "typical" leadoff hitter. I'm inclined to think his skill set's more suited to hitting behind a big on-base guy to take advantage of his power, but as I mentioned, hitting lower in the order has never worked out that well for him, for whatever reason, and the Cubs have other guys with power to fill that middle-order role.

Now, putting Theriot leadoff would irritate the hell out of me. He gets on base as little as Soriano (or less), and has NO power.

5. zonk Posted: March 14, 2008 at 11:55 AM (#2712738)

I really hate the fact that The Riot's game pretty much precludes me from feeling the love for him I truly do want to feel.

6. retro-shiite Posted: March 14, 2008 at 12:03 PM (#2712743)

Yeah, I feel the same way about him. I certainly don't have any personal dislike for him, he plays hard, he seems to get the most out of his modest talents...it's just that his talents are, well, modest, and the results reflect it. He's a fun guy to root for, but I really don't want the Cubs putting him in anything resembling a key role, if he has to play every day to begin with.

If the Cubs stick him in the leadoff or 2 slot, it won't be his fault, but it won't make continuing to like him that easy.

7. thedad01 Posted: March 14, 2008 at 12:19 PM (#2712758)

Linear Weights (and Super Linear Weights) are based off the context neutral run values of events like these.

I looked at linear weights and the formula includes the segment ".33 x (BB + HBP)". If we can assume zero HBP for this example on both parts, the prototypical lead off hitter would need just over 3 walks to produce a run that a home run would do. This would mean a total of 91 walks to make up the difference of 20 homers. This means we could add Fielder, Wright, Berkman and Pujols to the previous list and still not find another lead off hitter. Soriano is looking better and better as a lead off hitter.

Unfortunately, the site I checked also stated -

"In game 2 of the World Series, Alfonso Soriano went 1 for 3 (HR) with a walk and a CS. By linear weights, he created 1.40 + .33 - 2 \times .25 - .60 = .63 runs."

It's that sort of post that would drive Lou to madness.

8. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: March 14, 2008 at 12:33 PM (#2712770)

the prototypical lead off hitter would need just over 3 walks to produce a run that a home run would do

Don't forget that a home run will have a value greater than 1 because it drives in others.

9. Moses Taylor: armed with a will, the past, a brick Posted: March 14, 2008 at 12:45 PM (#2712787)

If the Cubs stick him in the leadoff or 2 slot, it won't be his fault, but it won't make continuing to like him that easy.

I don't think Theriot is going to stay in that role, and this is Lou's way of getting Soriano some more to get comfortable elsewhere.

10. Eric J Posted: March 14, 2008 at 01:08 PM (#2712814)

I'm pretty sure the question isn't whether Soriano is a productive hitter, or whether he'd be more productive by trading homers for walks. Soriano is what he is - a very powerful, pretty low-OBP hitter who will steal a few bases if his legs hold up. The question is where he'd be best deployed in the lineup. Leading him off, where he'll hit with nobody on base more often than anyone else in the lineup (probably), negates some of the value of his home runs, so for it to be a good decision, that loss in value needs to be replaced by his being on base for the other powerful hitters in the lineup. That's why Bobby Bonds and Rickey Henderson were successful power-hitting leadoff men. They were on base enough for the other sluggers on their teams to make up for the fact that their home runs were less valuable in the leadoff spot. Soriano doesn't do that to nearly the same extent.

11. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: March 14, 2008 at 02:30 PM (#2712901)

Given Soriano's preference for (and typically better production in) the leadoff spot, would Lou consider taking a page from the Brewers and hitting Theriot ninth? Ryan's decent OBP, low SLG, and excellent baserunning would seemingly make him at least as good a candidate as Kendall, if not better. As an added benefit, it would keep him out of the top 2 spots in the order and thus allow us as fans to like him again. I think the strangest trend in lineup construction is the willingness to put a team's worst hitter second because he can steal a base and execute a bunt or hit-and-run. Why can't they just put Fukudome second, allow the middle of the order to be entirely right-handed, and take solace in the fact that all the worst hitters will get the fewest plate appearances?

12. Bunny Vincennes Posted: March 16, 2008 at 08:53 PM (#2713893)

Soriano reminds me of Andre Dawson in his Expos tenure.

13. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: March 17, 2008 at 12:11 AM (#2713958)

Yeah, I think a Home Run is worth 1.4 runs so about four and a quarter walks equal one home run.

And I agree with Dandy Little Glove man, this isn't about hwo good a hitter Soriano is (he is really good) but instead about whether he is best suited to the leadoff role. The cubs would most likely be better off even with someone like Fukudome (who apparently has some OBP chops) hitting leadoff and letting Soriano smack him bombs while he is on base instead of the other way around. It is not whether a play is good or not but instead whether the manager is using his lineup to maximize its production.

Finally, if it is true that Soriano doesn't hit well outside of the leadoff spot (where did he hit for Washington?) then it may be best to keep him there. However, I doubt taht this is true and somehow think that his 'manhood' won't be hurt too much if he hit say, 4th in the lineup.

14. Dag Nabbit Posted: March 17, 2008 at 12:17 AM (#2713959)

I think Piniella is a great manager, but as I noted in a column last year historically, picking the best leadoff hitter isn't his strong point. In fact, on some occassions, he's done a historically lousy job picking leadoff hitters.

15. Monty Posted: March 17, 2008 at 12:36 AM (#2713965)

"In game 2 of the World Series, Alfonso Soriano went 1 for 3 (HR) with a walk and a CS. By linear weights, he created 1.40 + .33 - 2 \times .25 - .60 = .63 runs."

It's that sort of post that would drive Lou to madness.

Yeah, it sounds weird that a player who hit a home run would have less than 1 Run Created. I guess the penalty for a CS is greater than I would have imagined. It also seems odd that a player could hit one home run and then go 0-for-6 and the formula says he cost the team a tenth of a run overall, but that sort of result is inevitable in any linear system, I think.

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