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Saturday, May 31, 2008

Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel: Brewers sticking to picking plan

The Brewers don’t pick in the first round until No. 16, but shortly after that, the action will get fast and furious. As compensation for losing free-agent relievers Francisco Cordero and Scott Linebrink last winter, they get supplemental picks Nos. 32 and 35 after the first round.

As additional compensation for losing those free agents, the Brewers have picks Nos. 53 and 54 in the second round (previously belonging to Cincinnati and the Chicago White Sox) as well as their own selection at No. 62.
...
No organization scouts Canada better than the Brewers, so another player to keep an eye on is outfielder / infielder Brett Lawrie, a prep slugger from Langley, British Columbia. Finding a set position might take some time - he plays shortstop now but probably will be moved to second or third base - but Lawrie’s offensive prowess has him moving up the draft charts.
...
This draft is deep with college first basemen, such as Justin Smoak of South Carolina and Yonder Alonso of Miami, as well as college relievers, including Georgia’s Joshua Fields and TCU’s Andrew Cashner. The relievers might not fit the Brewers’ drafting profile, however.

“Not many college closers have become long-term guys (in the majors),” Melvin said. “(Oakland’s) Huston Street and (Washington’s) Chad Cordero did it. It’s a little bit of a gamble with those guys.”

Good bat, questionable glove/undefined position?  Sounds like the Brewers’ kind of player!

NTNgod Posted: May 31, 2008 at 11:12 PM | 44 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralMilwaukeeProspect Reports

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   1. battlekow Posted: June 01, 2008 at 01:13 AM (#2801900)
I have been advocating Fields (or Cashner, or whomever the team feels is the best fast-track reliever), but I'm now solidly in the Lawrie camp. Please no prep pitchers, and please no Hewitt.

I do find it odd to see no mention of Lawrie possibly being able to catch, especially since it seems opinion is swinging towards that opinion, not away from it.
   2. 1k5v3L Posted: June 01, 2008 at 02:51 AM (#2801922)
“Not many college closers have become long-term guys (in the majors),” Melvin said. “(Oakland’s) Huston Street and (Washington’s) Chad Cordero did it. It’s a little bit of a gamble with those guys.”
Well, Joey Devine is doing pretty well in Oakland, now that he's finally gotten a chance. Billy Bray and Royce Ring have bounced around with rather limited success, but should carve out decent careers as middle relievers if they stay healthy. Ryan Wagner got hurt. J. Brent Cox is pitching again, whatever happened to him in 2007, did he blow his arm out? And don't the Red Sox have anyone Cox (Bryson?), was he also a closer in college? And lest we forget, Jonathan Papelbon was a closer in college, but he's a little bit of a gamble...
   3. Miko Supports Shane's Spam Habit Posted: June 01, 2008 at 03:22 AM (#2801925)
And don't the Red Sox have anyone Cox (Bryson?), was he also a closer in college?

Craig Hansen. Maybe Melvin is thinking of him.
   4. Jonk Posted: June 01, 2008 at 04:12 AM (#2801926)
“Not many college closers have become long-term guys (in the majors),” Melvin said. “(Oakland’s) Huston Street and (Washington’s) Chad Cordero did it. It’s a little bit of a gamble with those guys.”

Is it a lower percentage success rate than any other position?
   5. JoeHova Posted: June 01, 2008 at 05:10 AM (#2801927)

Is it a lower percentage success rate than any other position?


Maybe or maybe not, but wouldn't it have to be a significantly better success rate than other positions to make it worthwhile?
   6. BeanoCook Posted: June 01, 2008 at 07:20 AM (#2801931)
Please no prep pitchers, and please no Hewitt.


Agreed on prep pitchers. But why no Hewitt?

I watched video on him, albeit, 10 swings. He has a very nice, compact, powerful swing. He is very athletic and apparently has a good arm. He is already "thick" so staying at SS may not pan out, but he should have the athleticism to play just about anywhere else.

He appears to be a Bill Hall type. But stronger. I really do like his swing. I should have gone to see him in person, he is just an hour away.
   7. BeanoCook Posted: June 01, 2008 at 07:36 AM (#2801932)
Let me be the first to predict Yonder Alonso is the next Antoine Williamson. I'm not impressed.
   8. BeanoCook Posted: June 01, 2008 at 07:57 AM (#2801934)
I'd be very happy if the Brewers drafted Aaron Hicks as a hitter. Tim Melville, Kyle Skipworth and Hewitt are also fine choices. I really think Aaron Hicks can be a special hitter.

Other opinions, I think G Cole is going to have to change most of his throwing motion otherwise face shoulder issues. I like Tim Beckham, but he looks like a taller H Kendrick and I'm not sure if a H Kendrick is worthy of a #1 overall choice. This draft is shallow at the top.
   9. BeanoCook Posted: June 01, 2008 at 08:05 AM (#2801935)
Let me be the first to predict Yonder Alonso is the next Antoine Williamson. I'm not impressed.


Actually, Brett Wallace fits that comp better.
   10. Keith Law Posted: June 01, 2008 at 09:05 AM (#2801938)
I have not seen Lawrie catch, only play 2b (and not well), but I've talked to several scouts who've seen him catch, and none thinks he stays there. Third base would be interesting; he has the arm for it, but not the feet/footwork, but it looks like his bat will profile there.

I don't think Hicks or Skipworth reaches 16. Melville might. And word last night is that Lawrie won't.
   11. battlekow Posted: June 01, 2008 at 01:41 PM (#2802019)
Yeah, Lawrie's not supposed to make it past the Twins at #14, unfortunately. As for the catching, Baseball America and PG Crosschecker, respectively, imply at least some teams think he can stick at catcher:
The more scouts we talk to, the more we find who think Lawrie could stick as a catcher, which could put him in the Twins' mix at 14.
Canada's top prospect has put on a show with the bat this spring, and his value is enhanced for teams that think he can catch in the future.
Also, in regards to your assessment of Lawrie's hitting ability:
Lawrie can hit, maybe. He's got a good swing and has had some success this year with metal, but was a cipher with wood last summer, which is a significant concern.
Patrick Ebert responds:
I'm not sure what Law is talking about. Lawrie's been hitting with wood this entire spring, and is used to hitting with wood since most Canadian Leagues use wood bats. He impressed scouts last summer on the showcase circuit (the East Coast Pro comes to mind), and again, they use wood bats, which is part of the main point about showcase events.
   12. battlekow Posted: June 01, 2008 at 01:45 PM (#2802024)
But why no Hewitt?

Just seems like too much of a gamble to me. I'd prefer a surer thing with a first round pick. If he's available in the supplemental (unlikely), great; he can be Brent Brewer II.
   13. Templeusox has reached his genetic threshold Posted: June 01, 2008 at 01:49 PM (#2802027)
Hewitt is this year's CJ Henry special.

If you pass on Reese Havens, you're passing on greatness. Keep that in mind.
   14. Mike Emeigh Posted: June 01, 2008 at 01:58 PM (#2802036)
If you pass on Reese Havens, you're passing on greatness. Keep that in mind.


Goodness, maybe. Greatness, not likely, especially if he has to move off SS as many people think he will.

-- MWE
   15. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: June 01, 2008 at 02:00 PM (#2802038)
Lawrie's not supposed to make it past the Twins at #14, unfortunately.
Really! I had no idea that he was rated so highly.
I'm waaaay out of the draft loop this year, but I like his bat a lot. Guess I'm not alone...

I also like Havens and made a Hewitt/Henry comp yesterday... cool. No way Havens stays at short though - I (naively) think he could be pretty good behind the plate, if given a shot.
   16. BeanoCook Posted: June 01, 2008 at 02:02 PM (#2802042)
#12) Well the Brewers like to "gamble" quite a bit in this business. Such as making/drafting Lawrie as a catcher...

I do agree with the overall frustration on prep 1st rd pitchers, especially ones Milwaukee drafts in the 1st. I believe the only, ONLY, prep 1st rd pitcher ever drafted by Milwaukee to make the Majors was Jeff D'Amico. This is out of (9-10) 1st rd prep pitcher choices. Not even a cup of coffee for a 2nd. Milwaukee used to and still does to an extent, have the worst medical staff or (luck) of any franchise with regards to young pitching.

Yet, I don't think you can totally pass on them. I just want my team to have conviction in their pick. For example, I'd pay to see the Twins or Brewers draft board. You'd see different opinions for sure. That to me would be worth it. Although I will "settle" for Keith's list, it is pretty good, of course, I agree with his observations most of the time. I'm sure he doesn't care what I think.

*I wouldn't crap on Brent Brewer yet. I think he has to be given several years, he has shown ability to progress. I still think he is just as likely to be playing SS in Milwaukee in 2012 than Escobar.
   17. battlekow Posted: June 01, 2008 at 02:28 PM (#2802089)
I wasn't really crapping on Brewer, though I'm not particularly high on him. I was just saying, when you have a guy as raw as Hewitt (or Brewer), you don't take him in the first round, no matter how much of a tools god they are. As for Brewer playing SS for Milwaukee in 2012, you're probably the only person on Earth that thinks he can stick at short, and that's leaving aside his issues with the bat. I'll bet you anything you want on Escobar vs. Brewer.
   18. battlekow Posted: June 01, 2008 at 02:30 PM (#2802095)
I'll give Brewer this, though: at least he's not Josh Murray.
   19. BeanoCook Posted: June 01, 2008 at 02:36 PM (#2802106)
Im really not that high on Escobar. Odds are another player will be playing SS in 2012, but I would not count out Brewer yet.
   20. battlekow Posted: June 01, 2008 at 02:40 PM (#2802111)
Escobar has made more significant strides than any other prospect in the system this year.
   21. Templeusox has reached his genetic threshold Posted: June 01, 2008 at 02:42 PM (#2802117)
Brewer over Escobar? That's crazy-talk.
   22. BeanoCook Posted: June 01, 2008 at 02:48 PM (#2802127)
I never said Brewer over Escobar, I said both are just as likely to be playing SS in 2012. In that both have major hurdles to overcome before they are everyday MLB players.
   23. battlekow Posted: June 01, 2008 at 02:49 PM (#2802129)
For those of you not up on the Brewers minor league system, first of all, what the hell are you doing in this thread?, and second of all, Escobar is hitting .322/.359/.438 at AA Huntsville to go along with his elite defense. His power is really coming around.
   24. battlekow Posted: June 01, 2008 at 02:50 PM (#2802130)
Relative to Escobar, Brewer has a damn steeplechase course to cover.
   25. BeanoCook Posted: June 01, 2008 at 02:56 PM (#2802152)
Escobar has 2-3 years more time in pro ball than Brewer and is older, obviously he is more advanced. My niece could tell me that.
   26. Templeusox has reached his genetic threshold Posted: June 01, 2008 at 02:57 PM (#2802153)
He's one year older and one level more advanced.
   27. battlekow Posted: June 01, 2008 at 03:01 PM (#2802160)
Exactly. Escobar was born 12/16/86, Brewer 12/19/87. We could round those three days up to another year, I guess.
   28. BeanoCook Posted: June 01, 2008 at 03:06 PM (#2802168)
For those of you not up on the Brewers minor league system, first of all, what the hell are you doing in this thread?,


If you are talking about someone in particular, why don't you name them? If you are talking about me, you need to grow up a little. Brewer is more raw than Escobar. So what? Raw players develop into excellent players all of the time. Most don't, but then again, most players never make it, raw or not. As for your comment that a team should never draft a raw player (such as insert example here) in the 1st, you need to expand on that a little.

There are many team that draft raw players high and are able to development them into a nice payoff. It happens all the time.
   29. battlekow Posted: June 01, 2008 at 03:16 PM (#2802193)
Relax dude, I wasn't talking about you at all. I was honestly trying to fill in a hypothetical BTF lurker, and then making a joke. Yeesh.
   30. BeanoCook Posted: June 01, 2008 at 03:20 PM (#2802201)
Escobar was signed into pro ball in 2003 6th year in pro ball
Brewer was signed into pro ball in 2006 3rd year in pro ball

Obviously neither of you can read what I wrote in #25

Beyond that, I stand by my claim that Brewer and Escobar are both just as likely to be playing short in Milwaukee in 2012. That speaks to the relative difficulty of reaching the big leagues in general just as much as it speaks to Escobar being better than Brewer or Brewer being better than Escobar. Odds are neither of them will be playing SS in Milwaukee in 2012.

Hitting wise, Brewer still has had better success with the bat than Escobar did in his full season debut. Escobar's record with the bat was behind that of Brewer at the same age/level. Of course there is a 1 year age difference in that, so you have to consider that, but that is what makes this an in-exact science and very difficult to project. Escobar has seen a jump to another level in the past year, this happens all of the time to developing players, it can just a likely happen to Brewer and he has more upside to reach. So much of Brewers value is in his strength and power upside, which is real.

Your overconfidence speaks volumes about your immaturity Horry-Kow. Both have to show a lot to prove they can play everyday in the Majors. I'm done talking about this.
   31. Templeusox has reached his genetic threshold Posted: June 01, 2008 at 03:24 PM (#2802206)
Your overconfidence speaks volumes about your immaturity Horry-Kow.
I'm done talking about this.

Fun stuff.
   32. battlekow Posted: June 01, 2008 at 03:26 PM (#2802211)
This conversation went downhill quickly.
   33. BeanoCook Posted: June 01, 2008 at 03:27 PM (#2802216)
Check out my handle, I'm Beano Cook, I'm supposed to be a grizzled old man.
   34. BeanoCook Posted: June 01, 2008 at 03:30 PM (#2802220)
Ok new topic.

When does Gamel get a cup of coffee? M Gamel's D can't be worse than Hall's D at 3rd can it?
   35. battlekow Posted: June 01, 2008 at 03:44 PM (#2802244)
According to Director of Administration for Player Development & Scouting Tom Flanagan, Gamel's defense is improving greatly, as is Angel Salome's. Apparently, Salome spent his suspension working with Charlie Green, and it appears to have paid off.
   36. battlekow Posted: June 01, 2008 at 03:44 PM (#2802245)
Branyan just hit his third HR. Something tells me he just bought Gamel another half year of development time.
   37. BeanoCook Posted: June 01, 2008 at 03:49 PM (#2802247)
A Hall/Branyan platoon has to be a 40 HR platoon.
   38. Mike Emeigh Posted: June 01, 2008 at 04:08 PM (#2802279)
Gamel's D can't be worse than Hall's D at 3rd can it?


Yeah, it can.

-- MWE
   39. NTNgod Posted: June 02, 2008 at 01:02 AM (#2802807)
MN Star-Tribune:
The Twins held a pregame workout for Brett Lawrie, the top Canadian prospect in this week's draft.

Lawrie, an infielder from Burnaby, British Columbia, recently hit five home runs in a doubleheader playing for the Canadian junior national team against players from the Dominican summer league.

Baseball America ranks Lawrie as the 37th-best prospect in the draft. The Twins have picks No. 14, 27 and 31, including the two picks they gained for losing Torii Hunter to free agency.

Twins scouting gurus Terry Ryan, Mike Radcliff and Deron Johnson turned out to watch Lawrie take batting and fielding practice. Lawrie showed a terrific arm when he threw from the outfield.
   40. battlekow Posted: June 03, 2008 at 01:18 AM (#2803956)
Escobar went 4-6 with a double, a triple, two walks, and one stolen base in Huntsville's doubleheader today. He's now hitting .331/.371/.456/.827.
   41. battlekow Posted: June 03, 2008 at 01:21 AM (#2803959)
Oh, and Jim Callis sez, with regard to Lawrie:
I wouldn't call him a "lock" but I think he'll go in the first round.
And about whom the Brewers will select:
Athletes (Zach Collier, Anthony Hewitt) or high-ceiling high school pitchers (Tim Melville, Ethan Martin).
   42. battlekow Posted: June 03, 2008 at 08:24 PM (#2804645)
Jonathan Mayo now has Lawrie going to the Brewers at #16.
   43. NTNgod Posted: June 05, 2008 at 12:30 AM (#2806512)
Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel: 'Unique' draft could bring a couple of surprises
"This is a very unusual year," said Zduriencik, who will supervise his ninth June draft today as the Milwaukee Brewers' scouting director. "It's a very unique group of players."

So unique that the Brewers could end up drafting a college first baseman, even though it would seem the last thing they need at this point.
...
"This particular year is a great year for first basemen," said Zduriencik "There are more first basemen at the top of the draft than there's been in recent years.

"We'll have to look at that as an option. Not that we'd do it or address it, but if it was a superior player then I think we would have to consider it."
...
The Brewers have several other options to ponder in the first round. They are enamored of the hitting skills of Canadian high school infielder/outfielder/catcher Brett Lawrie and keen on the athleticism of Connecticut prep shortstop Anthony Hewitt. Lawrie and Hewitt reportedly had strong workouts for the Brewers, so keep an eye on them.

A couple of high school pitchers, Tim Melville of Wentzville, Mo., and Gerrit Cole of Orange, Calif., also have caught the attention of the Brewers. And there is an unusual trio of prep pitchers/position players - Anthony Hicks (Long Beach, Calif.), Ethan Martin (Toccoa, Ga.) and Casey Kelly (Sarasota, Fla.), who has a scholarship to play quarterback at Tennessee.
   44. NTNgod Posted: June 05, 2008 at 06:08 PM (#2808152)
Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel: Lawrie expects to rise fast
Lawrie, who has played in the infield, said he considers himself a catcher now, and so do the Brewers. Lawrie has been catching primarily for a year or so.

"We've talked and they see me as a catcher," said Lawrie. "I'm looking forward to competing. Hopefully, I'll be up to the big leagues as quick as possible and it'll be behind the dish.

"I've worked hard from behind the plate, given all I can do."

Lawrie said he has been in contact with Russell Martin, another Canadian who has emerged as one of the top catchers in the game with the Los Angeles Dodgers. "He called me today and congratulated me," said Lawrie. "We've trained together."
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