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Can't wait to see Greg Vaughn's article!
Nope. He made it back for another go-around. I expect him to fall from contention this year, but if not I'll keep predicting it every year until it does happen.
What if I told you there is an eligible pitcher on this year's ballot who average almost a K per IP, who racked up 5 seasons of 20+ saves before he hit turned 28, and is 47th all time in games finished? What if I further told you that since retiring, he's found time to not only host pre and post-game baseball shows -- but also train harness race horses?
Sounds like a sure Hall of Famer -- unless his name happens to be Dan Plesac.
The numbers don't really back this up, but if he was relegated to platoon duty (one of these trades was in his prime, even), then perhaps he shouldn't be a Hall of Famer...
HoVVG IMO but not an immortal and believe me--I'd love to be convinced he belongs.
Best Regards
John
Always one of my favorite players too. I made some offhand remark in a column years ago, when the common wisdom was that it was a disaster to trade Sosa for Baines, that Baines would end up with more career RBI than Sosa would ever dream of. Damn if I wasn't nearly right – Sosa had to play his Indian Summer year for the Rangers to catch Baines in career RBI.
tOPS+ Split-----+------------+
106 2 outs, RISP
103 Late & Close
98 Tie Game
95 Within 1 R
96 Within 2 R
98 Within 3 R
98 Within 4 R
115 Margin > 4 R
Not bad, but "I've never seen a more clutch player?" There are plenty of arguments you can make for putting Harold Baines in the Hall of Fame (many of which begin with attacking the 3,000 hit non-standard) but clutchitude isn't one of them.
I'm sure Sosa could have dreamed of a few more RBI if he hadn't actually gotten them.
It would help Harold to go on a "Mr. 3000"-like comeback and get those last bunch of hits. Granted, he'd wind up hitting like .080/.110/.160, but it doesn't look like he's getting in otherwise.
edited because i looked up how badly he sucked seven years ago
And 1995. He averaged about a hit per game when he played in 1981 and 1994, and 1995 was only 18 games lost. Give him an extra 120 hits, and he's neck and neck with Sam Rice.
I remember his first half of 1999. I had just started going online that year, and everyday I'd check ESPN.com (stats in real time!!!) to see what Baines was up to. Halfway through the year, he was on pace for new career highs in virtually every offensive category. Unreal.
If he had reached 3000 hits, then there would have been a serious reconsideration of the "3000 hits = automatic entry" rule. I like the DH, but in his case, you've got to consider that his career would have been over in the late '80s had he not been able to DH.
I remember that as well, because I had moved out of the country that spring and was homesick. To fill the void, I turned to baseball updates on the internet, and Baines was having an unconscious season. He faded in the second half, making his final numbers unremarkable, but still had some moments of glory like an RBI double for Cleveland just an hour or so after arriving in the city in a trade and some key hits in the ALDS vs. Boston.
My sentiment is identical to John's. Baines is my alltime favorite player, but I'd rather see his HOF case fade away, because it pushes people to focus on how he came up short. When he was traded in 1989, he was expected to have maybe 3-4 more seasons on bad knees. Ten years later, he was on the AL All-Star squad. He got all he could out of his career.
Much like it's companion hitting mark, 500 home runs, I'm skeptical that automatic entry rule was ever in place. The only 3,000-club member whose HOF membership is questionable is Lou Brock, who might have been inducted without 3,000 hits due to his place atop the all-time steals mark.
There simply hasn't been a player reach 3,000 hits with no other reasons for induction, so I think the rubber stamp is more presumed (by folks both inside and outside the BBWAA) than real.
We also need to know if any money is going from Chicago to Atlanta.
Boy, I don't know... a career .380 OBP, favorite toy puts him at 558 career homers, likely to have a nice run of 8-10 40 HR/100BB seasons. I don't care how bad he is defensively or that his career batting average is just north of Gorman Thomas - that's a HOFer to me.
Ironically, though -- I bet it actually would eliminate the 500 magic mark since the writers don't like Dunn at all.
But I still think if Dunn ages reasonably well, he's a deserving HOFer.
Most of his best years with the bat came as a DH. He has to be considered mainly as a DH candidate (1644 games as a DH; 1061 games in the OF), and, at that, his hitting wasn't good enough to merit induction.
I've always thought of him as the anti-Edgar. Edgar was mainly a DH who was a great hitter but had a relatively short career; Baines was mainly a DH who had a long career but was only a very good hitter.
Considering Palmeiro isn't getting anywhere near the HOF, the mythical magic mark will have long since been eliminated.
Palmeiro's situation is a little unique. Ditto for Mark McGwire.
By that standard, Rose destroyed the 3,000 and the 4000 hit marks.
Heh. I don't think that word means what you think it means.
Considering one will be eligible and the other isn't, they really aren't that comparable.
It doesn't really matter. 500 Home Runs has never been an automatic ticket, unless automatic means qualified HOFers must wait through 4-5 votes then barely get the required 75 percent.
He's the only 500-HR player who's been suspended by MLB for PEDs. I think that's unique. At the very least, it's an apples-and-oranges situation to compare his HOF chances to those of Adam Dunn.
Yeah, but it's a Fuji-and-Gala situation compared to McGwire.
Dunn has a decent shot at 600 homeruns. He has hit 40 homeruns for 5 consecutive years. He is 28. Basically 8 more years like the last 5, and he gets 600. At 36 years old. No easy task, but possible.
The question really comes down to how you think Dunn will age. I don't know that he can keep up his present pace until he is 36. I also don't know if he is going to be one of those guys that plays until they are 40. I figure he makes 500 pretty easily (in his early 30's), but that 600 will be a stretch.
Now, I think that 600 makes Dunn a HoF lock. I also figure that he will make the HoF with 550, and barring injury 550 is quite likely. Some people are going to forget his defense after he retires. Of course, OBP is becoming better appreciated every year. In 2020, HoF voters might view Dunn in a different light than they would view him today.
Dunn 2006: 40 HR, 101 RBI
Dunn 2007: 40 HR, 106 RBI
Dunn 2008: 40 HR, 100 RBI
4-yr avg::: 40 HR, 100 RBI
Anyone seen any 2009 power forecasts for Dunn yet?
Baines' resume deserves Hall's notice
It should read:
RAINES RESUME DESERVES HALL'S CONFIRMATION
That's better.
That'd be fun
That is correct, and reinforces my point thhat the idea of automatic induction for reaching certain round numbered milestones is a myth. All the previous 400 home run hitters were inducted into the HOF, and if you use HOM selections as a guideline, deservedly so. It wasn't until Kingman cleared the plateau that the streak was broken. And Kingman was never close to gaining HOF admission because everyone knew he wasn't a HOF caliber player.
The main reason 400 or 500 HRs, 3,000 hits or 300 wins have correlated so perfectly with induction is that those feats historically required greatness to achieve them. And if Kingman had stumbled into 500 HRs or Bill Buckner had somehow squeezed out 285 more hits, I don't think those extra numbers would have converted 75 percent of the voters to suddenly find these otherwise undeserving candidates Cooperstown worthy.
Turn 285 of Buckner's outs into singles and he's at .319/.348/.438 115 OPS+. Still not a HOF 1B. Worse than Tony Perez by a good margin.
Turn 58 of Kingman's outs into HR and he's at .244/.309/.513 126 OPS+ in fewer than 7500 PA. Still not a HOFer. Worse than Orlando Cepeda by a good margin.
Much better players? Sure. Possibly Hall-worthy? No.
Well, I didn't mean HOF-worthy so much as considered HOF-worthy by those who vote. Yes, Kong's BA would still be pretty low, but it would've been much harder to deny him the MVP in '79 if he'd hit 55 HR and driven in 125, and that would elevate him more than 500 HR would do. If Buckner hits .319 for his career, he's in like Flynn, I don't care what his OPS+ would be.
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