God forbid the worst position player in the National League last season might have to prove himself in Spring Training.

And Darin Erstad wasn't any good even when he was good.

Add to that the influence of newer statistics on front offices and it’s easy to understand why a club convinced that a 23-year-old straight out of Triple-A is statistically comparable or better than a 39-year-old with more than a decade of big league service time would go with the kid.

Shocking, isn't it?

...Paul Cohen, the agent for Edmonds, sat by in disbelief when his client—who had hit 382 home runs, compiled a career .905 on-base-plus-slugging percentage, won eight Gold Gloves and made four All-Star teams in a fantastic 16-year career—couldn’t get a big league offer.

Stan Musial is even more miffed that he can't get a big league offer now with even a better resume!

The oldest story in athletics. There's not a single player listed in the excerpt I'd want my team to give a job to except for Thome.

the worst position player in the National League last season

Last season, Brian Giles - the guy who finished second in the NL in OPS+ in 2002 - had a slugging percentage worse than that of Willy Taveras. I'm not sure that I can wrap my mind around that.

And Darin Erstad wasn't any good even when he was good.

Erstad posted an OPS+ of 111 in his first four full seasons - 112, 114, 74, and 137. After he hit over .350 in 2000, it looked like the bad 1999 was the fluke.

Anyway, still, he was at one point pretty good, especially when his defense is taken into consideration. If he can still play defense, he at least has a use. Kevin Millar, on the other hand, has had two terrible seasons in a row with the bat, and I can't imagine that he's ever been in the lineup for his glove.

Anyway, still, he was at one point pretty good, especially when his defense is taken into consideration.

At his best, when he still played CF, he was a hell of a valuable player. Once he had to move to first...not so much.

MLB: Big league jobs tough to find for many 35 and older

Ah, that explains why I haven't been snarfed up yet. Rank age discrimination.

Ah, that explains why I haven't been snarfed up yet. Rank age discrimination.

Naw, it's your reputation as a clubhouse cancer and your abuse of the postgame spread that has you blackballed.

Thome's a very strange case. I first thought that maybe his numbers had taken a tumble in the last year and I hadn't noticed. But I'm looking over his bb-ref case right now, and the Dodger trade still doesn't make sense to me, and his apparent difficulty finding a job today doesn't make sense. Is there something I'm missing?

He's a one-dimensional DH at this point. But I can still think of a bunch of AL teams for whom Thome would represent a significant upgrade.

the Dodger trade still doesn't make sense to me

It was a pure gift to Thome - give the old guy a chance to be on a World Series winner. It's one of those trades where it's best not to think of it in terms of actually baseball talent exchanged.

He's a one-dimensional DH at this point. But I can still think of a bunch of AL teams for whom Thome would represent a significant upgrade.

Out of curiostity, which ones? From what I can tell, most AL teams either have a DH already under contract, or don't have the cash for someone like Thome.

Naw, it's your reputation as a clubhouse cancer and your abuse of the postgame spread that has you blackballed.

Nobody appreciaties the artistry of his American Pie reenactments.

Out of curiostity, which ones? From what I can tell, most AL teams either have a DH already under contract, or don't have the cash for someone like Thome.

The A's could non-tender Cust. The Rangers might be able to use him. If the Rays can find somewhere to dump Burrell, he's a fit there. He could end up back in Chicago. If Vlad doesn't re-up with the Angels, I can see Thome landing there. Thome will get a job, but the game of musical chairs needs to get in full swing before it happens. Nothing is going to start happening until the non-tender date, I think.

I don't think the "new age stats" have anything to do with those particular guys only having a marginal chance at big league jobs. Like others have said, it isn't news that many 35+ year old players with declining skills lose their jobs to younger players. That has always happened.

Erstad, at least, recognized two years ago that he was no longer a starting player and was willing to accept a pinch hit, defensive-replacement reserve role. I doubt that the Astros will re-sign Erstad, even though I wouldn't be shocked if they did. I suspect he would have to take a pay cut to have a chance at getting a bench job. He can still play good defense in the corner outfield positions, and occasionally in CF (he was a good fielder in CF in 08, but the Astros didn't use him there in 09).

Additionally, once an older player has been put into the pinch hitter or reserve role, it can be hard to tell what their true remaining batting skills might be, because the sample sizes are so small.

Jim Thome hitting in the right field wind tunnel at new Yankee Stadium might be an interesting sight.

I'd take Randy Winn on the Twins if they would dump Delmon Young on some other organization.

If you actually look around at what teams need which holes filled, which players are on the market, and which teams are likely to spend because they're on the fringes of contention, it looks like this is going to be a bloodbath for a good chunk of these FA.

Thome's a great example. He's a useful player, but who's actually in a position where they'd want to sign him?

Marco Scutaro is supposedly looking for like 3/$18. I don't see any team in the league signing him for that. Where's the market for him?

There are some interesting pieces below that top Lackey tier, but if you actually look around and try to fit them somewhere, there's no place for a lot of these guys.

If I were a player, I'd be telling my agent to take the first $3-4 million offer anyone gave me. There's going to be decent number of players left without chairs once the music stops in Spring.

Jim Thome hitting in the right field wind tunnel at new Yankee Stadium might be an interesting sight.

I concur, but might those conditions be altered a bit once the original Yankee Stadium building is torn down? (Has that work begun yet?)

Marco Scutaro is supposedly looking for like 3/$18. I don't see any team in the league signing him for that. Where's the market for him?

Boston.

True. That is where shortstops go to die.

Boston.

Yeah, I don't think Marco will get the third year because of his age, but 2/12 from Boston with an option for the 3rd year sounds right. A lot of teams could use him. Hell, I wish the A's would sign him for that. The pick is protected, Billy, bring Marco home! Insurance for Pennington possibly sucking, for Mark Ellis' eventual injury or plug him in at 3rd base. Do it do it do it. Do it!

That's the thing. There are lots of teams where that would make sense. But are the A's really going to spend money this offseason? If they're not willing to pay Jack Cust, what, $3 million, are they really going to bring Marco back?

There are lots of teams where that would make sense.

Like the Jays. Unfortunately, they've instead decided to go with the craptacular combination of McDonald and Gonzalez, for $4.25M per season.

He left out Orlando Cabrera, Jason Kendall, Miguel Tejada, Mike Cameron, Jermaine Dye, Jason Giambi. Notice none of these names are pitchers.

That's the thing. There are lots of teams where that would make sense. But are the A's really going to spend money this offseason? If they're not willing to pay Jack Cust, what, $3 million, are they really going to bring Marco back?

1. The problem with Cust is that he's not all that good. So it's less about the money there than if you can improve your production going outside the organization.

2. Of course the A's aren't going to sign Scutaro for 2/12. They should, and I think they have the money to do it, but they won't even if it would be nice if the team brought in a player that would bring some joy to the fanbase. That's why I said "I wish".

When the White Sox signed Andruw Jones and Omar Vizquel within days of each other, I declared to a friend that:

"In 1999, they'd be unstoppable."

Garret Anderson, Brian Giles, Jim Thome, Nomar Garciaparra, Kevin Millar, Darin Erstad, Miguel Batista and Randy Winn

Expect the White Sox to get at least one of these guys to continue their 1999 All-Star Team.

It reminds me of the 1998 "Jurassic Park at Camden Yards" Orioles (batting age= 33.3, pitching age= 30.5), which the joke was was created from a 1992 Topps Set.

Evidence that drug testing works or evidence that teams are stressing range more than they did for a while?

He left out Orlando Cabrera, Jason Kendall, Miguel Tejada, Mike Cameron, Jermaine Dye, Jason Giambi. Notice none of these names are pitchers.

Heck, Craig Counsell reportedly has a dozen teams interested.

I expect most of the guys that can field a little will find a job before Spring Training. But, if you can't really field and your bat is in serious decline, why should anyone be particularly interested?

Naw, it's your reputation as a clubhouse cancer and your abuse of the postgame spread that has you blackballed.

I did not abuse the postgame spread--it consented fully and freely. (EDIT: Does Ryan get a Coke for #10? You make the call...)

The clubhouse cancer part, I'll cop to.

I'm willing to forfeit the Coke, if you're willing to change your handle to retro-shiite, pie ######.

I knew that Meatwad violates futons, but I didn't know this about 'Shiite.

I knew that Meatwad violates futons, but I didn't know this about 'Shiite.

You should see what he does with Dodger Dogs.

"Old shitty players who want to be paid millions of dollars struggle to find employment."

Stop the presses.

The difficulty in older, often one-dimensional, and most likely declining players getting contracts is not surprising. If those players listed did not have difficulty it would be newsworthy.

Here are the issues affecting their opportunities:
There are limited roster spots 40/25.
For some/most teams there are limited funds.
Teams are beginning to realize that often a young good player contributes more than an old used to be very good player at a fraction of the cost.

The Rockies used to haul in guys like Steve Finley and Scott Podsednik for veteran presence among their backup outfielders. They finally realized last year that if you bring a young player up from AAA instead, he's not only cheaper but has the possibility of getting better, rather than the inevitable regression you get from the likes of Fins and Pods. And it really paid off for them, since they ended up with five reasonably good outfielders on the team.

Jim Edmonds really hit in his 300 PAs in Chicago in 08 (.256/.369/.568). I was shocked that he couldn't get an offer last year (to at least compete for a LF job). Not that I think it was anything nefarious.

Two words: Brian Sabean

"Look, Jim made a lot of money in the game, and when it was his time to step away from the game, he moved on," Cohen said.

Take a look a the cumulate salaries earned by the players named in TFA, for the years listed, from bb-ref.com, sorted by order of appearance in TFA. Obviously it does not include earned bonuses or endorsement money earned.


Player              Years         Salary<br>
Frank Thomas      1991-2008  $104,634,000<br>
Jim Edmonds       1993-2008   $85,572,907<br>
Ray Durham        1995-2008   $67,204,000<br>
Paul Lo Duca      1999-2008   $30,195,874<br>
Garret Anderson   1994-2009   $75,973,000<br>
Brian Giles       1995-2009   $81,023,667<br>
Jim Thome         1991-2009  $136,961,667<br>
Nomar Garciaparra 1996-2009   $78,467,394<br>
Kevin Millar      1998-2009   $20,535,000<br>
Darin Erstad      1997-2009   $49,225,000<br>
Miguel Batista    1992-2009   $45,130,000<br>
Randy Winn        1998-2009   $41,130,000<br>
Rich Aurilia      1995-2009   $31,959,500<br>


They earned this money, but now they're crying about being unwanted?!? Boo f---ing hoo.

By comparison, Brendan Donnelly looks like a poverty case: 2003-2007: $3,470,000 + (from Cot's Contracts) 2008: $750,000 + 2009: $950,000 = a mere $5,170,000

The difficulty in older, often one-dimensional, and most likely declining players getting contracts is not surprising.

How much does Vlad Guerrero get? Is he worth as much as Carlos Delgado?

Using data from the Lahman database, I estimated the mix of plate appearances (using AB+BB+HBP+SF+SH) by player age (as of June 30) for the last 50 years.

From what I can see, over the last 50 years, the mix has shifted slightly from the 29-and-under segment to the 30-and-over segment, but in wildly different trends over that time.

Note the shift towards younger players from 1959 to 1974, and then the shift towards older players after that. These trends after 1975 are probably correlated with / explained by expansion, adoption of the designated hitter rule, philosophical shift towards power over speed, increase in home run and strikeout rates, improvements in sports medicine, and free agency and increases in television dollars, baseball revenues and player salaries. (I wonder if the shift away from older players in the 1980s was a response to the increased salary costs due to free agency and maybe an artifact of collusion.)

Percent share of plate appearances (est.) by player age segment:

Year -29 30+
1959 62 38
1962 67 33
1969 72 28
1973 69 31
1975 74 26
1977 72 28
1981 60 40
1986 63 37
1990 65 35
1993 65 35
1998 57 43
2003 59 41
2008 59 41

Breaking down the age segments further, age 35+ players share of PAs has generally increased since 1959 and declined only recently.

Percent share of plate appearances (est.) by more detailed player age segment:

Year -24 25-29 30-34 35+
1959 17 45 31 7
1962 23 45 27 5
1969 22 50 24 4
1973 24 45 25 5
1975 27 47 20 6
1977 24 48 24 4
1981 14 46 34 6
1986 16 47 23 14
1990 13 51 29 6
1993 15 50 29 6
1998 16 41 34 8
2003 10 49 29 12
2008 17 41 31 10

How much does Vlad Guerrero get? Is he worth as much as Carlos Delgado?

Maybe he gets the 2009 Bobby Abreu deal: 1 year / $5 million?

I think he's worth more than Delgado. In 2009, Delgado played only 26 games to Vlad's 100, and Delgado has a degenerative hip condition IIRC that is not likely to improve much even with surgery.

I'm willing to forfeit the Coke, if you're willing to change your handle to retro-shiite, pie ######.

Hm. You'd let me just have that sort of PR, for nothing, AND forfeit the Coke? What's the catch?

Another "how much is he worth" question: How about Hank Blalock? Like a lot of Rangers, he has some mighty impressive home-hitting stats, but not so much on the road*. (Part of that, of course, is due to the odd-nature of the AL West.) Blalock has fallen off. I was thinking he might be worth a flier for the Giants for a one-year contract to play 1B. But I wouldn't give him more than a minimal deal, with maybe a team option on a second year for more money. ... FWIW, I like Russ Branyan more than Blalock as an option for the Giants. However, I suspect Branyan, who was good last year and underpaid, will get paid too much by someone next season.

*Career Home OPS = .874; Road OPS = .714; difference = +.160. For comparison, Mark Teixeira's career home OPS is +.104; Michael Young's career difference is +.119 at home; and (to consider a player who plays in a pitcher-friendly park) Adrian Gonzalez's home OPS is -.140 compared with his road OPS.

Vlad vs. Delgado? Easy money is on Vlad. As far as value, as a free market capitalist I think value is what you can get some idiot to pay you. True value? Does true value mean how many doubles, walks, steals, post game buffets, a player gets per dollar of salary? Or does it mean his value to the team by putting butts in the seats. I've argued for years that for some teams adding a big bat (Manny, whoever) could equal enough added ticket sales to almost pay his salary. Where teams (like the Indians go wrong) is adding middling kind of players (Delucci) that don't generate any excitement and thereby don't add to ticket sales.

They earned this money, but now they're crying about being unwanted?!? Boo f---ing hoo.

No, an agent is crying; it's his job to cry for his client. :-)

No, an agent is crying; it's his job to cry for his client. :-)

True. If he's not crying for you, then he deserves the boot.

There is a reason to sign a veteran on a one year deal instead of using a similar quality rookie, if the rookie is eventually likely to be any good. You don't want to use up pre-arbitration service time playing a guy as a backup. I think the real issue is that a lot of these guys want high salaries and starting jobs. A lot of them would have plenty of suitors if they were willing to play a backup role happily for low salaries. Most of the guys listed are still good enough to do that quite well.

I really would have loved Delgado not be injured and make a push for the Hall, but there's no way that happens now. Ah well.

It reminds me of the 1998 "Jurassic Park at Camden Yards" Orioles (batting age= 33.3, pitching age= 30.5), which the joke was was created from a 1992 Topps Set.

And the 1995 Yankees. I remember some breathless articles from NY writers about Mattingly, Boggs, and Fernandez forming an all-star infield.