That should clinch 4th place for the Jays...

You had to know he'd become a one-armed man...

How old is Dr. Yocum?

I remember his name from when I first started following the Angels, and that was 26 years ago.

Litsch is a pretty good backup plan, anyway.

Why is this (and the Beckett injury thread) tagged under Yankees?

The thing with this injury is that it kicks out a major leg from the rotation depth. Right now, Litsch is the only real 5th starter aside from throwing bad pitchers out there...and we all know what happens if you rely on #### at the back of the rotation (see: 2006). With Burnett and McGowan, we need rotation depth badly. I'm not as worried about the pen.

I say sign Kyle Lohse. Doesn't cost talent.

What could a package of Lind and Thigpen get? Something decent?

Also, how does this clinch 4th place for the Jays? They'll still pummel the Rays in the standings.

Sign Lohse!!

Ofcourse, Ricky Romero should be ready anytime now :)

You have to be joking. The Rays have much more talent than the Jays.

Could Thigpen or Diaz net one of Bush, Capuano or Vargas?

I don't think so, maybe in a year or so. But not now.

Maybe the Jays can trade Lyle Overbay for Dave Bush :)

You have to be joking. The Rays have much more talent than the Jays.

That's stretching things, the Blue Jays are a pretty solid team with or without Janssen, though not a playoff team. I think the odds are they're better than the Rays this year though I'd give the two teams about the same chances of making the playoffs since the Rays have a lot more capacity to surprise with breakout seasons that could propel the team to an unexpected record while the Jays are pretty well established in being good but not good enough.

Could Thigpen or Diaz net one of Bush, Capuano or Vargas?

As I said in the other thread, I would take Diaz for Vargas straight up. You want to throw in Lind, I'll throw in Tony Gwynn.

Knowing JP's statements on pitcher injuries, I can only conclude from this headline that Casey Janssen is completely healthy and will start opening day.

You have to be joking. The Rays have much more talent than the Jays.

2B Iwamura vs Hill
LF Crawford vs Stairs / Stewart / Johnson
1B Pena vs Overbay
CF Upton vs Wells
RF Floyd vs Rios
3B Longoria vs Rolen
DH Gomes vs Thomas
C Navarro vs Zaun
SS Bartlett vs Eckstein / McDonald

Kazmir vs Halladay
Shields vs Burnett
Garza vs McGowan
Jackson vs Marcum
Sonnanstine vs Litsch

On paper, I'd say the talent levels are closer than I thought, though the Jays' pitching looks to be clearly better, including a much better bullpen (too lazy to list). The Rays certainly have the higher ceiling, but also the larger number of question marks(Longoria, back end of the staff).

TB's youth, TO's injury possibilities (Burnett, Thomas, et al) are the obvious wildcards.

Knowing JP's statements on pitcher injuries, I can only conclude from this headline that Casey Janssen is completely healthy and will start opening day.

Or dead.

Adipoceral Regards

John

Um, Lind for Tony Gwyn Jr.? Yeah right, not happening.

Knowing JP's statements on pitcher injuries, I can only conclude from this headline that Casey Janssen is completely healthy and will start opening day.

Based on recent headlines, I think you'd have to conclude that the Jays just didn't want to admit that Janssen got semen in his eye or something.

Based on the 13 'position' match-up you list, I have it 11-2 for Toronto (with 1 that could go either way).

For Tampa to finsih third a lot more things will have to go wrong for Toronto than just this.

Defence matters.

Based on the 13 'position' match-up you list, I have it 11-2 for Toronto (with 1 that could go either way).

Really? I like both teams but am a Braves fan so I consider myself unbiased. Here's my crack at it.

2B Iwamura vs Hill - Edge Jays
LF Crawford vs Stairs / Stewart / Johnson - Big Edge Rays
1B Pena vs Overbay - Edge Rays
CF Upton vs Wells - Even (I'd rather have Upton but am being generous)
RF Floyd vs Rios - Big Edge Jays
3B Longoria vs Rolen - Even (I'd rather have Longoria, yadda yadda)
DH Gomes vs Thomas - Edge Jays
C Navarro vs Zaun - Edge Jays
SS Bartlett vs Eckstein / McDonald - Edge Rays

Kazmir vs Halladay - Even
Shields vs Burnett - Even
Garza vs McGowan - Edge Jays
Jackson vs Marcum - Edge Jays
Sonnanstine vs Litsch - Edge Rays

Jays - 6
Rays - 4
Even - 4

The biggest differences are at LF, where the Rays have a huge advantage; RF, where the Jays have a huge advantage; and SP #4, where the Jays have a significant advantage.

I generally agree with PECOTA, so if there's a line item here you question, PECOTA is the reason why. For instance, third base. PECOTA has Longoria at 25 VORP and +11 on defense. It has Rolen at 8.8 VORP and +9 on defense. I called it even because I think Rolen will outperform his offensive projection.

Or, look at SP #1. Halladay is projected at 35 VORP; Kazmir at 49. I called it even.

If you really think the Jays have a big edge, please justify that.

Based on the 13 'position' match-up you list, I have it 11-2 for Toronto (with 1 that could go either way).

Really?

Tampa Bay clearly wins in LF and 1B, and Toronto clearly wins in RF.

The rest of the positional players are all tossups to me, but I prefer the Tampa players as a group.

I slightly prefer the Rays in the rotation at every spot except #4.

The Jays do have a better bullpen, but the Rays have way, way more talent in the minors to fill in for injuries/ineffectiveness.

I have it 8 to 4 for Toronto, NOT including bullpen, which of course would be a big win for Toronto:

2B Hill over Iwamura
LF Crawford over Stairs / Stewart / Johnson
1B Pena over Overbay
CF Wells over Upton (Wells was injured, so I'm not about to anoint Upton as better than him already)
RF Rios over Floyd
3B Longoria, Rolen (I'm gonna say draw, too unknown to declare a winner, for this year)
DH Thomas over Gomes
C Zaun/Barajas over Navarro
SS Bartlett over Eckstein / McDonald

Halladay over Kazmir (remember injury concerns here)
Shields over Burnett
McGowan over Garza (very close)
Marcum over Jackson
Sonnanstine, Litsch (draw)

Also, since Tampa is so young they are very at risk for injuries as well.

Other areas I had even:

CF - Upton (28 VORP, -4 defense) vs Wells (19 VORP, -5 defense)
SP #2 - Shields (33 VORP) vs Burnett (34 VORP)

I think I was pretty conservative with my rankings.

Let's see

2B Hill vs. Iwamura: Offensively they look like a wash, defensively big edge to Hill. Hill wins
LF Stairs+ vs. Crawford: No contest, Crawford in a big win
1B Overbay vs. Pena: No contest, Pena in a big win
CF Wells vs. Upton: Offensively its Upton, defensively its Wells. A wash
RF Rios vs. Floyd: No contest, Rios in a big win
3B Rolen vs. Longoria: Having watched Rolen a lot over the past few years, I give it to
Longoria, who's upside is better and is currently less toasty.
DH Thomas vs. Gomes: No contest, Thomas in a big win
C Zaun+ vs. Navarro: Its either a big win for Zaun or a push in Navarro plays well. Zaun wins
SS Eckstein+ vs. Bartlett: Re-creation of the Cardinals infield is a bad thing, Bartlett wins

P Halladay vs. Kazmir: Kazmir wins, just more dominant than Halladay at this point
P Shields vs. Burnett: Wash, Burnett is a little better inning per inning, Shields will have
more
P McGowen vs. Garza: At best, Garza pitches to potential and its a wash. McGowen wins
P Marcum vs. Jackson: Marcum wins
P Litsch vs. Sonnastine+: Litsch has more upside, by TB has more depth, a wash.

7 wins for TOR, 5 wins for TB. I personally think Rolen is unlikely to bounce back, but its more a gut feeling than anything concrete. TOR's bullpen is much better. The big question for me is not the performance of the frontline talent. I think Longoria's going to hit, I think Upton's going to hit, and I think Pena will hit. I like TB's depth a lot more when injuries strike, even in the pitching staff. The even-ness of these two teams is going to make it harder for them to compete. I see two 83-85 win teams here. Everything breaks right, they win 95, with injuries happening two top players, I think they're both around 75 wins. They're still both closer to the Yanks than the Orioles.

C Posada/Zaun+/Navarro/Hernandez: NYY in a walk,BAL/TOR/TB, with TB having the most upside
1B Giambi/Overbay/Pena/Millar: TB in a walk, TOR/NYY/BAL, Pena if he hits his CAREER
averages, is likely better than the rest, including D
2B Cano/Hill/Iwamura/Roberts: NYY/BAL/TOR/TB, but BAL's will be leaving
SS Jeter/Eckstein+/Bartlett/?: NYY/TB/TOR/BAL, but another offensive decline with Jeter
makes it a win for TB/TOR
3B A-Rod/Rolen/Longoria/Mora: NYY in a walk, TB/TOR/BAL, with TB having the highest
upside, but not A-Rod Upside
RF Abreu/Rios/Floyd/Markakis: TOR, but by less than you think. BAL/NYY/TB. Markakis
projects very well.
CF Cabrera/Wells/Upton/Jones: TOR/TB (TB on offense,TOR on D)with BAL just behind, NYY is
very weak in this position in this division, though not
overall.
LF Damon/Stairs+/Crawford/Payton: TB in a walk, TOR/NYY/BAL, TOR with the upside (Lind)
DH Matsui/Thomas/Gomes/Gibbons: NYY/TOR even, TB/BAL, with TOR having the upside (health)

P Wang/Halladay/Kazmir/Guthrie: TB with TOR close behind, NYY/BAL, with BAL best chance of
implosion
P Pettite/Burnett/Shields/Cabrera: TOR/TB/NYY even, way down BAL, TOR with the upside (AJ)
P Hughes/McGowen/Garza/Loewen?: TOR/NYY/TB, way down BAL, upside for everyone (not BAL)
P Kennedy/Marcum/Jackson/Olson?: TOR/NYY, way down, TB/BAL, upside for everyone, best case
for TB/worst for TOR/NYY, its a wash.
P Mussina/Litsh/Sonnastine+/Trax: Its a wash all around, but NYY/TB have the upside in
Joba/Price.

Bullpen: TOR/NYY/TB/BAL, TB has the upside advantage

5 wins for the Yanks, 4 wins for the Jays, 3 wins the Rays. All it takes is a couple of injuries to the Yanks for the Jays or Rays to pass them up, or a couple of players on the Jays/Rays to hit their optimistic projections. On the other hand, if the Yanks young pitchers come through, they'll take the division over the Sox, so its a double edged sword. This division is going to be alot of fun.

2B Cano/Hill/Iwamura/Roberts: NYY/BAL/TOR/TB, but BAL's will be leaving

I think when SG ran his offensive + defensive projections, Hill, Roberts and Cano were all within a couple runs of each other, with Hill being the best. I'd still take Cano myself obviously.

#25 seems about right to me.

A couple nits: Scott will be the starter in LF over Payton, and Huff will DH over Gibbons, but that doesn't change much.

The only thing I strongly disagree with is the bit about Loewen not having upside.

No love for post #2?

How has Loewen looked in ST? I haven't seen him yet

Loewen walks too many. He has 3rd starter upside.

Not that it matters, but:

LF Damon/Stairs+/Crawford/Payton: TB in a walk, TOR/NYY/BAL, TOR with the upside (Lind)

(Bal's LF is Scott, Payton's slated as 4th OF).

and

DH Matsui/Thomas/Gomes/Gibbons: NYY/TOR even, TB/BAL, with TOR having the upside (health)

(Bal's DH is Huff, Gibbons will hopefully be taking tickets at the Yard.)

Unfortunately, I think you're a bit too optimistic about Baltimore's pitching there.

(Well, maybe not, it's only the first 6-7 spots of the rotation that have serious questions... but at least Guthrie's looked good.)

How has Loewen looked in ST? I haven't seen him yet

Healthy but wild.

Loewen walks too many. He has 3rd starter upside.

He also has a good strikeout rate and gets a ton of groundballs.

But you're probably right, 23-yo pitchers with control problems are doomed to third starter upside.

Yeah, I think "upside" (that is, best case scenario) is being confused with "most likely scenario".

Forgot completely about Scott, who's probably about even with Stairs+ (but does not have Lind's upside). Huff is barely better than Gibbons, but I forgot him too. Thing is, I remember that Luis Hernandez is penciled in as their shortstop, I just don't think he'll last the month of April. I think Loewen has far less upside than the other pitchers listed on that line, and probably less upside than Jackson (far less than Joba/Hughes). I also think a pitcher with a screw in his elbow is unlikely to last long before injuries strike. Its going to be a long season in BAL, though, so I hope for your guys sake that I'm completely wrong about Loewen.

I think Loewen has far less upside than the other pitchers listed on that line, and probably less upside than Jackson (far less than Joba/Hughes). I also think a pitcher with a screw in his elbow is unlikely to last long before injuries strike.

I don't agree at all. Loewen's injuries and control problems absolutely make him a bigger risk than anyone on that line. However, in the unlikely event that everything does go right, his upside is as high (or higher) than any of those other three.

PECOTA's 90th percentile eqERA:

Loewen: 2.84
Hughes: 3.24
McGowan: 3.29
Garza: 3.36

Thing is, I remember that Luis Hernandez is penciled in as their shortstop, I just don't think he'll last the month of April.

He may not even make it through March...

Here's what manager Dave Trembley said about shortstop Luis Hernandez, who committed another throwing error today: "He definitely rushed it. Fielding slumps are just like hitting slumps. You've got to work your way through it."

Here's what he didn't say: "And quickly if you want to be my starting shortstop."

I wonder if he was thinking it?

Brandon Fahey's next. He might project to an OPS of .625. D's maybe not as good, though.

63 Wins, baby!

Taking Pena as a huge improvement over Overbay might be weighing 2007 too heavily. Overbay was at .307/.375/.508 in 2006- Pena couldn't best those numbers at AAA. Overbay's only a year older. This isn't to defend the series of moves that brought him to Toronto, but let's not write the guy off yet. Just because he's named Lyle doesn't mean he shouldn't get some respect....

When did Bartlett become better than Eckstein? Bartlett's faster and plays better D, but Eckstein gets on base more. The Jays are going to have a sweet team OB% this year. If LF/SS/1B/CF all improve from last year's atrocious numbers, they could get a nice 30 point bump from 4 lineup spots...

PECOTA opines on these players:

Pena - 30 VORP, +3 defense
Overbay - 5 VORP, +2 defense

Bartlett - 12 VORP, +5 defense
Eckstein - 5 VORP, -3 defense

I saw the PECOTA forecasts, I think they have the same error of assuming Pena will repeat '07 and not regress at all, which is possible. But I think PECOTA is way off on Overbay. I don't have my '07 Prospectus in front of me, but I'm guessing Overbay was projected a lot better for '07 than he was for '08, and I don't think there's much reason to suspect he won't return to form after last year's injury. Pena was without a job a year ago. He might have established a new level of performance, but I don't think he's a lock to approach last year's numbers.

Bartlett was pretty bad with the bat last year. It's also worth keeping in mind that slick pairings will allow the Jays to mix and match McDonald and Eckstein to minimize the impact of Eck's weak arm. And I have never put any stock in BPro's defensive numbers, which have seemed to suck always. They've got projecting hitters down better than anyone, but I, and even some of their own writers, don't put much stock in their defensive metric. Some people are pretending Bartlett is the same guy who was getting screwed out of a job at the start of 2006, not the one who hit .265/.339/.361 last year. Eckstein has hit right around .300 with an OB% in the .360 range for the last 3 years. PECOTA is projecting a 30 point dip in those numbers to .275/.327, which would be a huge drop, probably making him a liability at SS instead of an asset. You can pretend that's already happened, but until it has he's a better hitter than Bartlett.

More on Janssen. This Blair is essential reading:
http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080312.wsptblair12/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/home

And a blurb on shoulder injuries at BA (which is recent):

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=807

Bartlett and Eckstein's offense is about the same, especially when you consider that Eckstein is moving from the NL Central (weakest division in baseball) to the AL East (strongest division). The AL Central and the AL East are about the same. The difference is that most defensive metrics like Bartlett's defense alot more. Also, pretending its already happened? Bartlett's OPS+ the last two years: 99,88 Eckstein's: 81,93. Bartlett is 28, Eckstein is 32. All the factors favor Bartlett, and their is absolutely no doubt that Bartlett is better on D. TB wins the SS duel. That's not even taking into consideration the Rays superior depth at SS (Brignac is on his way)