What are the chances that Cliff Lee is considered above average this year?

Only more evidence that we should have a "Best Hitter" award voted on by the players and that Cy Young voting should be for the "Best Pitcher" and, again, voted on by the players with the MVP being for Most Valuable Player and voted on by the media.

This is one of those things that the NHL gets right (or at least pretty much right) and MLB gets wrong.

Cliff Lee is a dead lock for the Cy Young Award.

He leads the league in wins, winning percentage, and ERA. It's over.

They changed the inscription on the CYA plaque a while back. It used to say, "Most Outstanding Pitcher." Now it says "Most Valuable Pitcher." So the Cy Young Award literally is an "MVP" award.

Brandon Webb, circa 2006 says hi. and he doesn't care that part of the answer references AL-only. the question was directed at both leagues.

hopefully lee will win it. and i'm not an indians fanboy (still mad that sabathia won it over beckett)...he's just been outstanding so far.

Roy Halladay has a lower WHIP & BAA than Lee and could very easily catch him in ERA, while throwing 25-30 more innings. 10 complete games is within reach... I'd say Lee is the prohibitive favorite today, but it wouldn't be inconceivable for Halladay to win, as he's won before and has the MSM "name brand" recognition.

It's over.

Agreed. The lack of Cy Young winners on bad teams is mostly the result of it being, by definition, more difficult for a pitcher to get wins on a bad team than a good team. While writers have gotten away from relying on wins in other aspects of analysis, it still plays a role in CY voting.

He leads the league in wins, winning percentage, and ERA. It's over.

I don't know that it's over ... but MCoA has it right. Pitchers on losing teams have no problem winning the CYA per se, the problem is that they rarely have dominant W-L records ... cuz they're on sucky teams. I'm curious -- are there cases where pitchers on losing teams were clear CYA choices (by the writers' standards) but didn't win it?

Lee's competition is Halladay who's 3 wins and a quarter-run of ERA back but has 21 more IP (he should end up around 250) and 8 complete games. Toronto should end up with a winning record but probably not by much and given they've been about 10 games back in the standings forever, it would be impossible to say that Halladay pitched in more meaningful games than Lee.

Oddly, assuming we think the Yanks are out of it, if you limited yourself to the 5 teams in contention you'd have a hard time with the CYA. The writers would choose K-Rod out of that group with Dice K as their other choice. I'd probably give it to Danks.

The NL, on the other hand is a big cluster of viable candidates: Sheets, Sabathia, Dempster, Peavy, Zambrano, Haren, Webb, Lincecum, Santana, Hamels, Volquez...

All of those players but three are on playoff contenders. One of the others is the defending Cy Young and second in ERA, another is probably the best pitcher in the NL and the third guy not on a contender might be the best story.

Halladay has a worse HR/9 (0.66 to Lee's 0.42), and has given up 9 unearned runs compared to Lee's 2.

I would bet my left nut that Webb wins the NL Cy Young.

if I had my drothers, I'd give it to Halladay because of those CGs. But then again, I'm just a fan of old-school guys who go the distance.

It's just really hard to argue with Lee, even though I think Halladay is the best pitcher in the American League. I'd probably put Lester third in the balloting, Joe Nathan fourth. Dice-K, Rivera and Mussina are in there somewhere.

It'd really be a shame if the writers go nuts and give it to K-Rod given that he's been the fourth best reliever in the AL behind Nathan, Rivera and Papelbon.

Halladay has pitched 20.1 more innings and given up 17 more runs.

Halladay has pitched 20.1 innings and given up 17 more runs.

Which, when compared to how the Cleveland bullpen has performed, doesn't look all that bad.

Cliff Lee is a dead lock for the Cy Young Award.

He leads the league in wins, winning percentage, and ERA. It's over.

I think Lee will win, but I certainly don't think that it's a given that he will, since he could still be shellacked in his remaining 6 to 7 starts, thus giving Halladay a chance to sneak past him.

Indians bullpen has given up 5.53 runs/9. So would theoretically give up 12.48 runs in those 20.1 IP.

I would bet my left nut that Webb wins the NL Cy Young.

I would never place anything that important on the outcome of a BBWA vote. Call me chicken but ...

Lee's IP/ERA by month:

Month IP _ERA
Apr 37.2 0.96
May 34.1 2.88
Jun 31.2 3.41
Jul 42.0 3.14
Aug 24.0 1.50

Sometimes your model is wrong.

I would never place anything that important on the outcome of a BBWA vote. Call me chicken but ...

You're a chicken butt.

I thought Halladay could easily close in but when I saw his record was 17-2, it seems pretty clear that he could win. You really can't say without seeing what happens in the last few starts.

In other news, Halladay's K:G is back up to 8.0 this year.

I think Lee will win, but I certainly don't think that it's a given that he will, since he could still be shellacked in his remaining 6 to 7 starts, thus giving Halladay a chance to sneak past him.

Well, obviously if Lee can do bad, so can Halladay, but if Lee holds serve, that WP will speak volumes. How do you lose just two games with that bullpen? Or win 17? Give it to him.

Halladay has pitched 20.1 more innings and given up 17 more runs.

That type of argument didn't work for Esteban Loaiza back in '03, so who knows what will happen.

Refresh my memory about 2003?

we should have a "Best Hitter" award voted on by the players and that Cy Young voting should be for the "Best Pitcher" and, again, voted on by the players

The players voted Varitek into the All-Star Game.

I know the voting process was screwy but does anyone have confidence that MLB wouldn't foul it up?

Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips. It still boggles the mind.

Indians bullpen has given up 5.53 runs/9. So would theoretically give up 12.48 runs in those 20.1 IP.

I don't think this is a good argument. A logical extension of this argument would be that if a guy's bullpen had a 2.50 ERA and he had a 2.60 ERA, he would be more valuable if he pitched 5 innings a start than 7 innings a start.

Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips. It still boggles the mind.

Don't forget Lee Stevens.

If Lincecum doesn't win I will pie Bud Selig.

I don't think this is a good argument. A logical extension of this argument would be that if a guy's bullpen had a 2.50 ERA and he had a 2.60 ERA, he would be more valuable if he pitched 5 innings a start than 7 innings a start.

I didn't make the argument. Post #15 seemed to indicate Halladay's innings are more valuable considering the Indians bad bullpen. I was just responding to that.

My local bias may be showing, but I really want Doc to get the hardware. And I truly believe he's the best pitcher in the AL. But, hey, as has been said before, it's hard to argue against Lee's case for a handful of reasons. I think Lee wins it. Doesn't mean I'd take him over Doc on a given day though.

If the season were to end now, Lee would win in a landslide. Pitchers on bad teams very rarely have league leading ERAs, win totals, and winning percentages. For the CYA, there is no expectation that the team be good. It's just that pitchers who win CYAs are usually 15-20 games over .500 by themselves. How often will you get a pitcher like that on a below .500 team?

The Halladay throws more innings argument only carries any weight if you place a huge amount of weight on the extra 15 or so innings of rest he's given the Blue Jays bullpen. The way Halladay pitches might be instructive to other pitchers with the stuff to pull it off, but I can't see how it provides more value than what Lee has done.

If Frankie Rodriguez breaks the saves record, he might win the CYA, also. I don't think he should, but he might.

I would never place anything that important on the outcome of a BBWA vote. Call me chicken but ...

Eh, I barely use the left one.

The players voted Varitek into the All-Star Game.

They voted Joe Mauer into the all-star game, in a landslide.

The idiotic roster rules, though, took the players' second choice their choice. Varitek wasn't the best second choice, but we're talking about a very small percentage of the players here.

The idiotic roster rules, though, took the players' second choice their choice. Varitek wasn't the best second choice, but we're talking about a very small percentage of the players here.

Those were the rules the first year the player's voted, but after a lot of unworthy players got into the game because of it, they changed it. Varitek was the first choice.

My local bias may be showing, but I really want Doc to get the hardware. And I truly believe he's the best pitcher in the AL. But, hey, as has been said before, it's hard to argue against Lee's case for a handful of reasons. I think Lee wins it. Doesn't mean I'd take him over Doc on a given day though.

I really want Halladay to win it too. However, the only ways I can see it happening is if Cliff Lee completely falls apart over the next month and a half - and I mean "Lima Time!" falls apart, or Halladay does an 1988 Hershiser impression. Otherwise, Lee has this one wrapped up, and Halladay is looking at a 2nd or 3rd place finish in Cy voting, depending on how K-Rod is treated.

if I had my drothers, I'd give it to Halladay

I'd screw a chimpanzee.

Those were the rules the first year the player's voted, but after a lot of unworthy players got into the game because of it, they changed it. Varitek was the first choice.

Citation?

The players voted in eight reserve position players for the AL and eight for the NL. Did they choose differently from the fans in all sixteen cases? That can't be right.

Some funny self-congratulating about "correctly" predicting that Cliff Lee would decline in this thread by Tango et al. Of course, I completely agreed with them at the time and have been short Cliff Lee all season. Just goes to show how great this game is that the smartest people can miss something by that much.

For reference, Cliff Lee from 6/14 to today: 7-1, 2.33 ERA, 64 Ks, 10 BBs, and 4 HRs in 88 IP. Also, in his one loss, he threw 8 innings of 1 run ball while striking out 11.

Don't forget Lee Stevens.

I recall reading somewhere that the first time Shapiro saw the trade reported in the media, it said that the Indians had traded Bartolo Colon for Lee Stevens and some prospects. Needless to say, he cringed when he saw it reported that way.

And nice Primus reference, Leroy.

Oh, and I was absolutely, unequivocally, 100 percent wrong about Cliff Lee. I said a number of times in '06-'07 that I thought he was running on fumes and that they should trade him before the bottom completely falls out.

I can't imagine having been more wrong about anything, ever, in my nearly 33 years on this planet.

There's no question Lee wins if the season ends today. But some of you folks are under-rating Halladay's chances.

Now, first, Halladay has to win most of his remaining 9 starts and Lee do no better than 500. But if Halladay is at 20-10 and Lee at 20-6 or even 21-6, say, then voters will start looking at some secondary numbers more closely.

What do writers whine about the most? Not unearned runs that's for sure. Those won't matter to a single voter. Writers love to whine about pitchers not throwing innings, not going deep into games, not completing games. Halladay is on pace for 250-260 innings and maybe 10 complete games. Nobody's had that many complete games since Johnson in 99, goes back to Erickson in 98 in the AL. Halladay is also only 6 back in the strikeout race. It's within the realm of possibility that Halladay will finish with the league lead in ERA and strikeouts and, less likely, wins -- in which case he wins it easily.

But yes, if Lee finishes, oh, 22-3 or he gets 19-20 wins while Halladay is stuck at 17, then Lee wins. But if you tell me Halladay finishes the season within one win of Lee, I'd put my money on Halladay because I'm guessing he'll have the ERA lead before the season's over. For comparison, his ERA by month:

3.26
2.52
2.83
2.68
1.14

Halladay's a better pitcher than Lee and we'd expect him to outperform Lee over the last 8-9 starts -- which is 1/4 of a season. Lee's lead isn't big enough to have the CYA sewn up.

Sabermetrically, it's a bit of a coin toss. Halladay has the better K-rate, Lee the better HR rate, both have ridiculous K/BB rates (5.5 to 5.0 in Lee's favor). BPro puts their expected W-L at 14-5 vs 13-8. Halladay's had slightly better bullpen support (2 runs diff according to BPro) while Lee's had much better run support (1.5 runs/game according to ESPN). I don't know how BPro defines "luck" but they give Lee over 5 of it and Halladay under .5.

Plus, if my life depended on one game, I think I'd ask Halladay to start it (him or Santana). That's deserving of a CYA. :-)

Refresh my memory about 2003?

You know, I was going to make a HILARIOUS non-sequitor joke here about how Vaughan-Williams "A Sea Symphony" conducted by Robert Spano won the grammy for Best Choral Album and beat out ________________, which was a freaking travesty.

However, I can't find anywhere who else was nominated. Seriously. ANYWHERE in this vast internet can I find who was nominated for Best Choral Album in 2003. I consider my google skills pretty good, and I'm sorry for the hijack but anyone who can provide me with where a link to this information will have my gratitude.

Honestly, I don't even freaking care, I'm just shocked the information is so hard to come by.


Also, I agree that Halladay still has time to sneak in and wrest this award from Lee.

As far as I can tell, this link has 2003 Classical Grammy Nominations. You are correct that it wasn't easy to find, and I like to think of myself as a google wizard.

http://www.wnyc.org/music/articles/10014

Back to the main topic, all it takes for Doc to win is Lee pitching the rest of the year as an average to an above average pitcher while Halladay maintains his current excellent pace. Certainly possible.

Thanks, Barry's Lazy Boy, that one was weirdly difficult. There was one more page, FYI, that I found but didn't realize it was there waaaay at the bottom:

http://www.suprmchaos.com/bcEnt-Grammy.index.html

Gubaidalina was robbed!

FOUND IT JOKE OVER RETURN TO YOUR HOMES.

if my life depended on one game, I think I'd ask Halladay to start it (him or Santana)

you mean if Beckett wasn't available?

Kyle: I'll take issue with your summary, and I hope no one subscribes to your point of view.

I was actually congratulating Neyer and The Blog readers. Nowhere did I congratulate myself, because frankly, how could I congratulate myself on something after 4 starts? And even so, what would I congratulate myself on?

My position was always moderate and echoed exactly the feelings of the typical reader on my site, and as summarized by the poll I ran, that at the time in mid-May, had you had to pay him a free agent contract, you'd offer him Lilly/Westbrook money.

Obviously, if I run the poll now, he'd value out more (probably a 4/50 deal).

Looking only at the performance data, Lee's great start was as relevant and impactful as CC's bad start.

The scouting and observation data may have shown something more real, but, I don't think anyone presented anything systematic or verifiable, just anectodal. Certainly you want and need scouting data, and ignoring it simply adds a greater deal of uncertainty. With no scouting data, we think Lee is a .475 to .575 pitcher as of mid-May. As of mid-June, we think he's a .450 to .550 pitcher with no scouting information. If we had scouting information, maybe we think he's a .550-.575 pitcher the whole time.

I agree with Walt. Lee is obviously the front-runner, but saying it's a "lock" is unfair to Halladay.

Hell, just look at last season. Beckett was the only 20-game winner, but they gave it to Sabathia who had one less win and 40 more innings.

Halladay needs some help (from Lee and from his team,) but if he has a September like his September of 2003 he could win it still.

Tom, I think you're right. I apologize for the mischaracterization. I think, though there is less evidence for this in that link than I first thought, that there exists a pretty high degree of certainty among all the participants of that thread that Lee and Sabathia were revealing their "true colors". Of course, you guys were exactly right about Sabathia.

Really, the point that I wanted to make was related to the hubbub in May about whether Lee had turned the corner or not. Standard projection models that don't incorporate scouting data thought it unlikely, and MGL said so (I believe you did too, Tom, but I won't put words in your mouth after my gaffe earlier). Of course, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Lee fell apart next year a la Esteban Loaiza. Such is baseball.

Hijack: ESPN is reporting that the Dodgers have acquired Greg Maddux. For what, I do not know.

To pitch, I believe.

I was going to make Loren's joke but smartly refreshed first.

He's had a good year. I wish he'd had a better offense behind him. (Maddux, that is).

And by good year, I mean he's been decent, not stellar.

Considering Maddux had the Padres entire stolen base total last month, maybe they plan to replace Pierre with him. Can't be much worse.

Hopefully the Dbacks get to face Maddux a couple of times this year

If Lee wins 3 of his final 8 starts and doesn't lose any, he'll be the first pitcher in MLB history to win 20 games and lose fewer than 3.

I wouldn't be so happy about it Levski, Maddux gets super-powers when he pitches for the Dodgers. I vividly remember the last time he was there he went 8 shutout innings against the Giants in like 70 pitches or something. The whole thing is unfair.

The Dbacks have had a lot of success against Maddux over the years, and pummeled him twice this season too... yet somehow lost one of those games... I think the Dodgers got Maddux so they won't have to face him... sort of addition by subtraction from the enemy.

Maddux has a 131 OPS+ as a Dodger against the Diamondbacks. I am telling you, when he plays for the Dodgers he gets infected by the evil ghost of Don Drysdale or something. Dodgers are guaranteed to make the postseason now.

Oh, by the way, here is the output of my sophisticated projection model for the Men's 100M winner at some tournaments in the future.

2009 - Berlin Worlds - BOLT, U (Jamaica)
2011 - Daegu Worlds - BOLT, U (Jamaica)
2012 - London Olympics - BOLT, U (Jamaica)
2013 - Moscow Worlds - BOLT, U (Jamaica)

It's a very sophisticated model

I am telling you, when he plays for the Dodgers he gets infected by the evil ghost of Don Drysdale or something

Maybe he infects Manny with a nasty bug that gives him explosive diarrhea lasting weeks

Maybe he infects Manny with a nasty bug that gives him explosive diarrhea lasting weeks

I'd hate to be the Dodgers towel boy.

Refresh my memory about 2003?

Loaiza was better, but Halladay had more innings (plus one more victory, although both won 20). You had to give Loaiza forty pretty lousy innings to match Halladay's performance. Halladay won the CY anyway.

Wow, you guys. I lost the thread of the article as soon as Repoz mentioned Hyapatia Lee. Yummmmm....Hyapatia Lee.

They changed the inscription on the CYA plaque a while back. It used to say, "Most Outstanding Pitcher." Now it says "Most Valuable Pitcher." So the Cy Young Award literally is an "MVP" award.

This, actually, is exactly the opposite of what happened.

Gubaidalina was robbed!

Yeah, the Gubaidulina by Gergiev and the Mariinsky should have won.