Worth kicking the tires on?

Worth kicking the tires on?

Sure, especially since he can't be offered arbitration. He'd be a fine fourth-fifth starter on even a good staff.

If I'm Rizzo, I'd go after him if he isn't a Type A free agent. The Nats need at least one more pitcher (even if they bring back Hernandez) to give them innings and lighten the load on the young starters. Bowden's inability to do this last year led to the 103 losses.

Solid mid-rotation guy. 200 IP, 4.50 ish FIP pretty much like clockwork. Worthwhile depending on the price.

Would the D-Backs still have had to kick in $2.5 million if the Dodgers exercised the option?

Because 1 year at $7.5 million seems like something the Dodgers should have wanted. Or at least something that had positive trade value.

Or is there a specific underlying health concern?

The underlying health concern is the McCourt's divorce case. And the D'Backs wouldn't had to pay any of the buyout if the Dodgers and Garland picked up the mutual option.

If I'm Rizzo, I'd go after him if he isn't a Type A free agent. The Nats need at least one more pitcher (even if they bring back Hernandez) to give them innings and lighten the load on the young starters. Bowden's inability to do this last year led to the 103 losses.

Garland's a pretty big BIP guy. I suspect his success is going to be much more highly tied to the defense behind him than a lot of guys who can just get their own outs via the K. How's Washington's defense? I was thinking that was one of their glaring weaknesses this season, but maybe I'm mis-remembering.

and the years. Always just 1 year at a time from now on.

The clock is ticking on some of my favorite pitchers -- the BIP kings. Garland's at the 1800+ IP mark which is about as far as this kind of pitcher can make it these days but might have another 2-3 years of non-suckitude left. Suppan leads the pack at 2400 IP and it looks like he'll be lucky to get a full season in next year without getting hammered. Westbrook has been hurt and will be 32 next year, he might well be done. Silva, an extreme case in almost all regards, is only guaranteed to see a major-league mound again because of his ridiculous contract. And who knows what to expect from Wang.

If you look at the last 30 years at pitchers with 1200+ IP and a K-rate of 5 or less, Garland is tied for 9th in ERA+ at 104 (right with Tewksbury). John Tudor is way out in front with 126 (1n 1750+ IP) then Reuschel at 111. If you sort the list by IP, Suppan comes in 5th and is a good comp for Mike Morgan, Bill Gullickson and Scott Erickson. 33 starters have amassed 1500+ IP in the 2000s and those guys are two of them. Granted, they are two of the worst (Livan and Jeff Weaver bring up the rear) but they are in a respectable group including Moyer, Penny, Millwood, Rogers, Wolf, Davis and Lilly. Suppan has more IP in the 00s than Hudson, Halladay, Lowe or Santana (and, even crediting them with extra years, Zambrano and Lackey).

Mets?

tripon you read my mind. when i saw this, the first thought i had is it don't matter if they liked him or not, here was another way to trim costs.

How's Washington's defense? I was thinking that was one of their glaring weaknesses this season, but maybe I'm mis-remembering.

It was awful, but now with Morgan in center, Guzman off short and Dunn out of the outfield, it has to be much better.

Mets?

They should probably take a look at the possibility.

Giants? Who would you rather have as your #5, Garland or Brad Penny?

The Mets might just take next year off

Sure, especially since he can't be offered arbitration.

Garland's looking like a Type B guy, so he can be offered arbitration, but I don't think the Dodgers will.

Dodgers need to act poor for a while, which is really annoying since Tony Abreu could probably start at 2nd base for the Dodgers next year. Ned Colletti is a frigging idiot.

Giants? Who would you rather have as your #5, Garland or Brad Penny?

Madison Bumgarner? I think I'd rather have Penny, to be honest. The Giants would be wise not to throw too much money at the 5th slot. Think offense, Brian Sabean. Offense!

Speaking of Bumgarner, is what we saw of him at the end of 2008 the real him? Because a guy who throws in the high 80s with pretty good command isn't the best pitching prospect in the majors.

How's Washington's defense?

If it's not hit to third or center (Zimmerman or Morgan). be very afraid. (Desmond has some potential at shortstop, but isn't yet proven over the long haul.)

Speaking of Bumgarner, is what we saw of him at the end of 2008 the real him? Because a guy who throws in the high 80s with pretty good command isn't the best pitching prospect in the majors.

I have no idea.

some of my favorite pitchers -- the BIP kings.

you would've loved Jeff Ballard. I attended this game - it was impressive.

RE: Bumgarner, some people were saying he had a tired arm since he had pitched so much throughout the year, others were saying his velocity had been down pretty much all year long...

Sure, especially since he can't be offered arbitration.

This really isn't that difficult if you logically process the following sentence

Should Garland rank as a Type-A free agent, the Dodgers cannot offer him salary arbitration

Garland will rank as a Type-A free agent the day after Brad Lidge collects his 2009 WS MVP trophy.

If I'm Rizzo, I'd go after him if he isn't a Type A free agent.

Sigh...

[edit] and jwb beat me to the punch a long time ago (as it always happens)...

Would the D-Backs still have had to kick in $2.5 million if the Dodgers exercised the option?

No. Oh, and I owe Tripon whatever beverage is being peddled around here these days...

No matter what, this is the first episode of "The Owners are Divorcing and We Are Going To Do It the Padres Way".

No matter what, this is the first episode of "The Owners are Divorcing and We Are Going To Do It the Padres Way".

I don't doubt that during the divorce payroll will be down. But if Garland wasn't valued enough by Torre to even be on the NLCS roster, why on earth would the Dodgers pick up his option? If the manager says that he isn't good enough to be used in the postseason, then paying him $10 million for next season is not going to happen, even on a team like the Yankees.

RE: Bumgarner, some people were saying he had a tired arm since he had pitched so much throughout the year, others were saying his velocity had been down pretty much all year long...

Some were saying that he had a tired arm, but he threw virtually the same number of innings in 2008 without losing velocity. Some of his earlier games in single A were televised, he hadn't lost his velocity at that point (not all of it, at least, I'm not sure how fast he was throwing in 2008, but I'm pretty sure that he was still topping out around 94 in SJ; I was certainly shocked when I first heard that he was featuring 89 MPH in AA). Bumgarner himself claimed that he was purposely taking off velocity to pitch to contact at the direction of the coaches, which frankly stinks of BS to me. Coaches might have told him to pitch to contact, but no one told him to drop 5 MPH, and his command was such that he certainly didn't have to trade velocity to throw strikes.

The clock is ticking on some of my favorite pitchers -- the BIP kings.

Your Zach Duke Fan Club application is in the mail.

Dunn out of the outfield, it has to be much better.

By UZR, Dunn was the worst firstbaseman in the National League. His UZR at first started out historically bad, suggesting he was one of the worst firstbasemen of all time. After early August, he improved to merely being equivalent to the typical 'worst firstbaseman in the National League' during the 'UZR era'.

Dunn, by UZR, had a horrific, historically bad year in LF this year, at -38/150 games. However, even though that's historically bad, it's also approaching twice as bad as he's been in recent years, where he hovers around the -22/150 level. (In 2002 he was actually among the leaders in LF, at 10/150.) Either the standard of play among NL LFs has risen dramatically this year, or Dunn had a problem that might go away.

Basically, whether in LF or at 1B, Dunn is the worst fielder in the league. It really makes no difference, because these things are relative, not absolute.

Basically, whether in LF or at 1B, Dunn is the worst fielder in the league. It really makes no difference, because these things are relative, not absolute.

So, would the Nats be better off with Casey Kotchman or Adam Dunn? It's interesting.

[29] I really don't think you can use UZR for such a small sample size. Look at what his numbers say for the time he spent in RF in AZ, for example.

If those numbers are accurate, not only was he not getting to anything (almost quite literally), he was also sprinting over to the second baseman and knocking him over so he couldn't make routine plays.

To my eye, Dunn wasn't a complete disaster at 1B. He's almost certainly much better than Dmitri Young was at the position a year or two before. Damning with faint praise, but the point is that I don't think that DY's UZR was as bad as Dunn's was last season, meaning Dunn's numbers probably can't be taken at face value.

The problem with Dunn, it seemed, is that there was like a 5% chance he'd just miss a ball completely -- like right through him as if he were playing dodgeball. Everything else, he did passably well. Below average, for sure.

Dunn's numbers probably can't be taken at face value

He played 540 innings at 1B (more than he played in LF) for a UZR/150 of -25. Nick the Sick split about 1000 innings between two teams for a UZR/150 of -6.6. The most innings at 1B were by Prince Fielder, at 1431. Even if we reduce Dunn's UZR by 2/3rds, as a rough regression to the mean, he's still worse than Nick the Sick, who might on that same measure be a -4, twice as good as Dunn.

I'm not taking anything at face value.

you would've loved Jeff Ballard. I attended this game - it was impressive.

This Ballard start was even better. At least in that first inning.

What an amazing year for the O's (who might not be a bad choice to sign Garland if they can also get Beltre).