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Saturday, September 27, 2008

MLB: Dominant Johan keeps Mets alive

Rest up for Sunday, Johan. Rest up.

There was a certain risk involved with bringing Johan Santana back on three days’ rest, with using a pitcher who had performed the trick—albeit successfully—just once in his career. Santana had thrown 125 pitches, a career high, in his most recent outing, rendering any normal expectations worthless. Simply put, the Mets were rolling the dice.

Then Santana went out and performed better than the team possibly could have hoped, firing a complete-game shutout and keeping the Mets in playoff contention for at least one more day. Their 2-0 victory over the Marlins boosted the Mets, at least temporarily, back to within a half-game of the Wild Card-leading Brewers, who had only just started their game when the Mets recorded the final out at Shea.

...Following a 35-minute rain delay, Santana came out sharp, retiring 11 of the first 12 batters he faced. His only trouble came in the fifth inning, when he loaded the bases, but he still needed only 104 pitches to complete eight innings. By the time Santana struck out John Baker to end the eighth—his seventh strikeout of the afternoon—Mets fans had been serenading him with chants of “JO-HAN, JO-HAN” for quite some time.

Repoz Posted: September 27, 2008 at 08:28 PM | 28 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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   1. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: September 27, 2008 at 08:38 PM (#2958658)
For his sake, I hope the Mets make the postseason. If they do, this is a legendary performance. If not, it's a footnote. To pitch at that level, in such a crucial game, without the experience of pitching on short rest, never having thrown so many pitches in his previous start -- absolute superstar performance.
   2. Bobby Bonilla's Annuity (Matt) Posted: September 27, 2008 at 08:41 PM (#2958664)
A performance for the ages.
   3. Long John McCaine Mutiny on the Bounty (scott) Posted: September 27, 2008 at 08:41 PM (#2958665)
Santana is a ####### God. What a great pickup.
   4. Neil Kinnock...Lord Palmerston! (Orinoco) Posted: September 27, 2008 at 08:41 PM (#2958668)
Whatever happens, we have got/The Maxim gun, and they have not.

This is the type of starts you see on the day the team signs a big ticket pitcher, when you close your eyes and let the imagination loose.
   5. The Bones McCoy of THT Posted: September 27, 2008 at 09:27 PM (#2958750)
Heck, Nolasco wasn't exactly chopped liver either. Just a terrific pitcher's duel.

Moyer's looked good--the Phils are getting close.

Things are dicey in Milwaukee--sacks juiced, Prince Fielder due up.

Best Regards

John
   6. eric Posted: September 27, 2008 at 09:31 PM (#2958766)
I'd love to see Johan make 40 starts next season and pitch 280+ innings.
   7. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: September 27, 2008 at 09:48 PM (#2958841)
Phillies win the NL East.
   8. Harris Posted: September 27, 2008 at 09:56 PM (#2958862)
Where you at Lassus?

you fully believe the Mets are gonna win the division now???
   9. Zeba Zeba Eata Posted: September 27, 2008 at 10:01 PM (#2958877)
Just got back from the game... that was awesome. It looked like Johan was starting to slow down a bit in the 5th and 6th, but he had n easy 7th and he was pumped and sharp in the 8th and 9th.

The crowd was great, too - the Jo-han chants were deafening, particularly in his last at-bat and in the 9th. Nobody wanted to leave whne it was over.

This Friday/Saturday have gone a lot like last year's. Hopefully Sunday deviates from the script.
   10. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: September 27, 2008 at 10:06 PM (#2958885)
Moyer had one of the great seasons a 45 year old has ever had. 121 ERA+ in 196 IP, raising his ERA+ by 29 points. I kep waiting for him to struggle and he just didn't.

The Mets are the underdogs to make it.
   11. jeffersonlives Posted: September 27, 2008 at 10:09 PM (#2958888)
At many points in the season I would have signed for all square, one to play. The Iowa Cubs have been playing pretty well so there's that, and hopefully Dr. Oliver Jekyll shows up tomorrow.

You gotta believe!
   12. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: September 27, 2008 at 10:32 PM (#2958914)
What a weird season for Johan. He leads the league in innings at 234 and racks up a 162 ERA+, also tops, even as his peripherals substantially deteriorate. Will his PECOTA/ZiPS ERA projection for next year be on the right side of 3.50?
   13. Meatwad is on team keefe Posted: September 27, 2008 at 10:33 PM (#2958917)
amazing performance. cubs knocked sheets around for ya...heres to monday baseball
   14. PJ Martinez Posted: September 28, 2008 at 12:27 AM (#2958990)
If they do, this is a legendary performance. If not, it's a footnote.

Like that Endy Chavez catch a while back. Epic if they win that game. Alas...
   15. Darren Posted: September 28, 2008 at 12:59 AM (#2959002)
It's still epic. There was still just as much at stake no matter what happens from here on out. Just fewer people will be likely to remember it.
   16. Sam M. Posted: September 28, 2008 at 01:17 AM (#2959006)
Like that Endy Chavez catch a while back.

Actually, much more like John Maine, and this game. Almost identical, in fact. Mets go into Game 161 one game back in the race (then, the NL East race). Pitcher throws a magnificent game to win while the team they are chasing (then, the Phillies) loses, temporarily tying the race.

How well-remembered is Maine's effort? Not all that much. Many more people remember how Tom Glavine did the next day, don't they?
   17. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: September 28, 2008 at 01:25 AM (#2959008)
Yup. They mentioned the Maine game today and I remembered it, but it had escaped from memory before that. I kinda remember Maine just throwing fastball after fastball, and they didn't seem to be that fast or move that much, but no one could hit them.
   18. Sam M. Posted: September 28, 2008 at 01:36 AM (#2959014)
He leads the league in innings at 234 and racks up a 162 ERA+, also tops, even as his peripherals substantially deteriorate.

A 63/208 W/K ratio is nothing to sneeze at, and definitely should have him on the right side of 3.50 projections. Yes, it's down for him, but OTOH his HRs allowed returned to his historic norms after taking a huge hit last year. So I'd say taken as a whole, his peripherals were no worse than 2007.
   19. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: September 28, 2008 at 01:54 AM (#2959022)
I thought HR per flyball was virtually all luck. Here is Johan's performance according to QERA, the Baseball Prospectus equation that predicts ERA based on peripherals:

2004 2.68
2005 3.00
2006 2.95
2007 3.09
2008 3.78

And remember that he switched to the NL in 2008, when we'd expect to see his peripherals *improve* due to the opportunity to face opposing pitchers. Looks like a real warning sign to me, as marvelous as his results were this year.
   20. Raskolnikov Posted: September 28, 2008 at 02:09 AM (#2959034)
This is why the Mets have to go hard after Sabathia in the offseason.
   21. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: September 28, 2008 at 02:35 AM (#2959041)
I thought HR per flyball was virtually all luck.

Is this true? Any links to this would be appreciated.
Just thinking about it adhoc, you would expect certain class of pitchers to have higher HR/FB. You would expect a pitcher to have increasing HR/FB rates as he gets into the fag end of his career.
And you would most certainly expect it to be park dependent.
   22. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: September 28, 2008 at 02:43 AM (#2959043)
as he gets into the fag end

Mmmm...we don't say such things in America.

Especially in Mets threads.
   23. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: September 28, 2008 at 02:46 AM (#2959045)
Especially in Mets threads.

Piazza retired!
   24. NTNgod Posted: September 28, 2008 at 03:06 AM (#2959051)
Actually, much more like John Maine, and this game. Almost identical, in fact. Mets go into Game 161 one game back in the race (then, the NL East race). Pitcher throws a magnificent game to win while the team they are chasing (then, the Phillies) loses, temporarily tying the race.

One of your favorite columnists also agrees: Newsday: Matthews - Last-game cliches eerily similar to 2007
In the delirium of Saturday's postgame clubhouse, Mets general manager Omar Minaya made an interesting observation: "Last year, a day like this never could have happened."

In fact, last year a day very much like this did happen, under eerily similar circumstances on the corresponding day in the season -- Game 161 against the Florida Marlins, a huge, emotional Mets victory that set the stage for a dramatic final act at Shea Stadium that would salvage an entire season.
...
There is a symmetry to this that is either remarkably coincidental or revoltingly familiar. Even the postgame quotes are the same, almost to the word.

"We're still in it," Willie Randolph said after that game last year. "I still believe in my guys."

"We're still in it," Santana said Saturday. "It's not over yet."
   25. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: September 28, 2008 at 03:06 AM (#2959052)
It's times like this that makes you glad the game has a financial system that funnels the best players to the big market teams. Or not.
   26. Sam M. Posted: September 28, 2008 at 01:07 PM (#2959140)
It's times like this that makes you glad the game has a financial system that funnels the best players to the big market teams. Or not.

Yeah, it's the "financial system" that does that, because the bedraggled ownership of the small market team that had Johan Santana before simply could not have afforded to pay Johan Santana's price.

My eyes are rolling, and they may not stop until well into the off-season.

And as for Wallace Matthews, NTN, while the comparison to Game 161 is apt, there is one important difference: he is the kind of black-hearted SOB who hopes that Ollie Perez comes up like Tom Glavine did in Game 162, so he can write the sort of ugly, mean-spirited column that is his stock-in-trade. Mets' fans who read his column, and those of us who ignore him more often than not, merely fear that it may happen.
   27. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: September 28, 2008 at 01:57 PM (#2959152)
I was at the game yesterday. Wow! Just wow! I'm a Yanks fan who actually likes the Mets. When I was younger, growing up in the 80's, I used to hate Mets fans for 1986 but things have changed since then...

But I feel so lucky to have seen Johan's performance in person. I think it's the best individual performance I've seen live. The last two innings were just madness. The fans knew it. Johan knew it.
   28. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: September 28, 2008 at 08:30 PM (#2959182)
My eyes are rolling, and they may not stop until well into the off-season.

Yeah, you are right. There's no evidence that the revenue imbalance causes big market teams to get more than their share of stars. None at all. Thanks for your input.
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