It's not easy to juggle a pregnant wife and a troubled child, but somehow I managed to fit in eight hours of TV a day.

Young men's minds are always changeable, but when an old man is concerned in a matter, he looks both before and after.

Bailey is one of those easy "busts" to call where you can impress all your unknowing friends who just read a prospect list on Rotoworld once a year.

"It sucks being old, no one listens to you"

"Its sucks being a kid, no one listens to you"

"I'm a white male, age 18 to 49. Everyone listens to me, no matter how dumb my suggestions are!"

The Baskin-Robbins on the concourse at Great American Ballpark is the HQ of the Ancient Mystic Society of No Homers.

Homer Bush is a member.

OMG Homer Bailey as a bust is soooo 2007. This year he's on my late bloomer's list.

Homer no function beer well without.

Bailey is one of those easy "busts" to call where you can impress all your unknowing friends who just read a prospect list on Rotoworld once a year.

Bailey's problem, to some extent, is the organization that he's in. The Reds haven't developed a quality pitcher since Tom Browning, 20 years ago, and they've had more than their share of flameouts in that time. Bailey has talent - you can see it every time he goes out there - but he doesn't have a clue about how to use it, and he pitches scared a lot. He doesn't trust his stuff.

I think he'll be a good pitcher, eventually - but it might take a change of scenery and a pitching coach who can really get inside his head for that to happen.

-- MWE

Bailey is one of those easy "busts" to call where you can impress all your unknowing friends who just read a prospect list on Rotoworld once a year.

Here's the rookie years of a handful of pitchers that have played in recent years:

Pitcher A - 50 1/3 IP, 3.6 K/9, 5.9 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 78 ERA+
Pitcher B - 157 2/3 IP, 9.9 K/9, 8.2 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, 79 ERA+
Pitcher C - 45 1/3 IP, 5.6 K/9, 5.6 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 81 ERA+
Pitcher D - 160 2/3 IP, 7.3 K/9, 5.4 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, 82 ERA+
Pitcher E - 64 IP, 5.2 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9, 67 ERA+

Pitcher A is Tom Glavine. Pitcher B is Bobby Witt. Pitcher C is Homer Bailey. Pitchers D and E are Randy Johnson and John Smoltz, respectively.

I'd like to know why you think he's such an easy call, because both his minor league and major league stats don't give much of a clue.

Bobby Witt's rookie year:

174 K
143 BB
130 H

I love it.

Bailey's problem, to some extent, is the organization that he's in. The Reds haven't developed a quality pitcher since Tom Browning, 20 years ago, and they've had more than their share of flameouts in that time. Bailey has talent - you can see it every time he goes out there - but he doesn't have a clue about how to use it, and he pitches scared a lot. He doesn't trust his stuff.

Interesting POV, Mike.

What do y'all think of Johnny Cueto? I've never seen him throw. Hard to get too excited about a little guy (especially a little right hander), but his results speak for themselves thus far.

As far as I can tell, only 6 modern pitchers have had more K than H allowed and more BB than H allowed in a meaningful number of innings in a single season. The others ... Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan, Sam Jones, Bob Turley (twice), and Tommy Byrne, the only one of the six who had more BB than K in the season in question. He was 15-7 with a 109 ERA+ that season, and started a game in the world series -- 179 BB, 129 K, 125 H.

The Reds haven't developed a quality pitcher since Tom Browning, 20 years ago, and they've had more than their share of flameouts in that time.

Really? Tom Browning? Wow. Lemme see . . Jack Armstrong started that all-star game, and that was it, Steve Parris, Ron Robinson, Brett Tomko, Ron Villone, Dave Burba, Chris Reitsma, -- Jose Rijo. He was after Tom Browning. Barely.

They have developed some relievers since Browning - Rob Dibble, Norm Charlton, Scott Sullivan, Hector Carrasco, and Scott Williamson. But, whether you say Rijo or Browning, it's been 20 years since their last real starting pitcher came off the farm to southern Ohio.

The Reds haven't developed a quality pitcher since Tom Browning, 20 years ago, and they've had more than their share of flameouts in that time.

Really? Tom Browning? Wow. Lemme see . . Jack Armstrong started that all-star game, and that was it, Steve Parris, Ron Robinson, Brett Tomko, Ron Villone, Dave Burba, Chris Reitsma, -- Jose Rijo. He was after Tom Browning. Barely.

They have developed some relievers since Browning - Rob Dibble, Norm Charlton, Scott Sullivan, Hector Carrasco, and Scott Williamson. But, whether you say Rijo or Browning, it's been 20 years since their last real starting pitcher came off the farm to southern Ohio.

In other words, Cubs:Position Prospects::Reds:Pitching Prospects

Let's hope Soto or Pie end the Cubs futility.

Reds don't get credit for Rijo anyway.

Chris Hammond! 15-1 in AAA! (I remember that record w/o even checking...am I right? ....yes )

Oh wait -- Jose Rijo debuted with the Yanks & played for the A's.

Tom Browning really is their last starting pitching prospect. Jeepers.

DTM,

That's not fair. Since the Reds developed Rijo, er, Browning, the Cubs have developed Mark Grace, Rafeal Palmerio, and . . . uh, Joe Girardi, Rick Wilkins, Damon Berryhill, Doug Glanville, Dave Martinez, Jerome Walton, Dwight Smith, Doug Dascenso, Derrick May, & of course Corey Patterson. Yeah, that's a shitty list, but Grace and Palmerio put them ahead -- even if it's only 2 years ahead. Barf.

Actually, Shawon Dunston came up about the same time as Tom Browning. That's how long the Reds have gone without developing a starting pitcher.

Tom Browning is 25 months away from joining the AARP. He's the last homegrown starting pitcher. OUCH!

There are reports floating around out there that Bailey is difficult (at best) to coach.

Bailey reminds me of Jason Vargas, who I saw pitch on a number of occasions when he was with the Mudcats. I've seen Bailey pitch twice, and it was the same pattern both times - an inning or two of absolute dominance followed by nibble, nibble, nibble, until his pitch count got into the 90s and he had to come out of the game after 5 innings or so. That was Vargas's pattern, too. Someone needs to tell Bailey, and keep telling him, that he's good enough to get hitters out when he just decides to come after them - because he is.

Cueto reminds me of Tom Gordon, not just in terms of size but also in terms of approach and attitude. I suspect that in the long run he's probably better suited for late-game relief than starting.

-- MWE

Homer no function beer well without.

No beer and no TV make Homer something something.

No beer and no TV make Homer something something.

Go crazy?

Chris:

Maybe I am confused but Brett Tomko was drafted by the Reds in 1995 and started two seasons and was decent before being traded. 1998 he pitched 210 innings, struck out 162 guys and finished 13-12. Now he and Jack McKeon didn't get along so Tomko got the heave-ho.

Brett's career hasn't been much since but at the time he looked better than decent.

Don't mind if I do!

Maybe I am confused but Brett Tomko was drafted by the Reds in 1995 and started two seasons and was decent before being traded. 1998 he pitched 210 innings, struck out 162 guys and finished 13-12. Now he and Jack McKeon didn't get along so Tomko got the heave-ho.

Tomko's had an ERA+ better than 100 twice in his career; his rookie season and 2004. That didn't fit my definition of quality. But even if you give them credit for Tomko, that just cuts the gap to 10 years instead of 20.

-- MWE

What do y'all think of Johnny Cueto? I've never seen him throw. Hard to get too excited about a little guy (especially a little right hander), but his results speak for themselves thus far.

Cueto has really impressed in camp, supposedly adding another few MPH to his fastball which was already in the low 90s. He's always had good control. He could very well be in the opening day rotation.

Also, Homer's stint with the Reds last year was hampered by a strained groin. He's been a bit wild in ST and I'm fine if he starts in Louisville to work things out. But there's no reason to believe that he can't turn things around. The Reds have sure had problems developing starting pitching for the last couple decades, but Dick Pole has been decent so far at handling the young guys.

Having no pitcher better than Brett Tomko in 20 years is pretty bad. Tomko seems reasonably durable, but can't stick in a rotation because he's just the quality of pitcher you settle for if you can't find somebody else. Reds did a decent job with reclamation projects for awhile under Don Gullet.

MWE:

Your point about the Reds and pitching prospects is well-known, but I wonder about the real reasons. In the past 20 years, there've been three completely different front offices; at one point, Marge Schott purged almost the entire minor league system, and Krivsky has done the same thing.

Unless you accept two things (1) Chief Bender was the final word in the minor league system (he seems to be the only constant), and (2) he was really an idiot when it came to signing/developing pitchers, it really looks like (except for the Jeremy Sowers fiasco) just a run of bad luck.

Harv,

I always liked Brett Tomko, but I saw his line & his rookie year might still be the best of his career. That's a decent definition of a flame-out, and thus doesn't really rebut MWE's point.

Also, I remember Tomko having trouble with the Reds coaching staff when he was there.

Really, though -- the Reds have never been known for their starting pitching. Go before Browning and it's Soto.

Go to the 1970s teams, and they were some of the greatest teams to ever lack dominating starting pitchers. They had some great young talents around 1970 like Gary Nolan and Don Gullett.

Go back, and there's Jim Maloney. He was great, but he blew his arm out.

You got Joe Nuxhall. A good not great pitcher. Yet in the last half-century, Soto & Maloney might be the only ones they've developed who are better.

Go back and there's . . . what? Paul Derringer & Bucky Walters - but they both came from other organizations. Well, they had Vander Meer & Ewell Blackwell around then, too.

Eppa Rixey & Dolf Luque got their starts elsewhere.

The best starting pitchers ever out of Cincy (chronological order):

Bob Ewing
Noodles Hahn
Pete Donahue
Johnny Vander Meer
Ewell Blackwell
Joe Nuxhall
Jim O'Toole
Jim Maloney
Gary Nolan
Mario Soto
Tom Browning

125 years - and and they still have yet to develop a pitcher who won 135 games for the franchise.

Understood about Tomko. I didn't read it well enough. And not that I thought Tomko was "great". Just that he was ok. And correct, he did have his issues with Reds field leadership.

Mario Soto didn't win 135 games plus because the Reds rode him into the ground. Mario Soto was a heckuva pitcher. And washed up after age 28.


Sigh.............

I've gone back and forth on the utility of the Weaver method of putting young pitchers in the bullpen for a year or so as an apprenticeship. I don't actually know how well it works and I know that sometimes people make the mistake of thinking the guy is now a 'reliever' if he does well.

But I do think a guy like Bailey (whose main problem is control) might benefit from the move.

Go to the 1970s teams, and they were some of the greatest teams to ever lack dominating starting pitchers. They had some great young talents around 1970 like Gary Nolan and Don Gullett....Mario Soto didn't win 135 games plus because the Reds rode him into the ground. Mario Soto was a heckuva pitcher. And washed up after age 28.

Gullet thru age 26: 1345 IP, 113 ERA+ (look at his comps!)
Nolan thru age 28: 1617 IP, 120 ERA+
Soto thru age 28: 1506 IP, 113 ERA+

All three combined, after that: 336 IP (and 2/3 of that by Soto).

Harv,

Actually, that also described Maloney, Nolan, Hahn, Vander Meer, Donohue, O'Toole as well.

Ewing was 29 when they gave him his shot -- the oldest start for a prominent pitcher of the era. Browning was also a bit older. Vander Meer held up & Nuxhall as well.

Homer Bailey's looking to become the 3rd Red SP in history to get his shot before his 25th birthday and still be worth a fart by age 30.

Random fact: Gary Nolan is one of only 6 men to throw 200 IP in his age-19 season since 1900. The others include a pair of HoFers (Chief Bender & Bob Feller), two classic phenoms (Gooden & Wally Bunker) and a guy who got his shot due to the Federal League (Pete Schneider). He had the fourth best ERA in the NL that year.

He was 27 in the big 1975 season, but just scraped by at 15-9, barely better than league average. Two years later he was done.

Only two dozen others have thrown 200 at age 20 since 1900. Don Gullett is one. He went 16-6 with the 6th best ERA in the league that year. He only had 22 starts in 1975. He was done by age 28.

That's my favorite what-if in baseball history: how good would the 1975-6 Reds have been if Nolan & Gullett were healthy with that line up? Could they have won 120 games?

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