Chone Figgins is a Type-A instead of a Type-B. Wonder what pushed him over the top?

fernando tatis?

Tripon, when in doubt, go with "steroids"

or, if you lose a FA to the yankees, you get their 7th round pick in 2012!

I wonder if the Dodgers (excluding Jamie McCourt) have the balls to offer arbitration to Hudson and Garland.
Wolf, probably.

Kevin Gregg is a type A. I can't see any team giving up a first round pick for him. He may not get an offer, even for the minimum.

Interesting - Vlad Guerrero is a type-B. That increases his value on the market considerably.

Kevin Gregg is a type A. I can't see any team giving up a first round pick for him. He may not get an offer, even for the minimum.

How about Darren Oliver as Type A?

Scutaro is a type A - is the shortstop market weak enough for someone to toss a first rounder for him? As a Jay fan I'm very happy Barajas is a B as that jumps the odds of someone signing him and the Jays getting a sandwich pick. Assuming they sign the guy they draft :P

Kevin Gregg is a type A. I can't see any team giving up a first round pick for him. He may not get an offer, even for the minimum.

Well there's no way the Cubs offer arbitration, and no way a team is in such a rush to sign him that he signs before the deadline, so it's irrelevant.

Kevin Gregg and Darren Oliver are type As. Vlad and Rich Harden are type Bs. Who makes this stuff up?

Kevin Gregg is a type A. I can't see any team giving up a first round pick for him. He may not get an offer, even for the minimum.

He'll be fine. There's no way he'll be offered arbitration (because he'd almost certainly accept), so teams will just wait until the Cubs don't make him an offer.

Oops. Forgot about the arbitration thing. Yeah, no chance of that.

Elias's rankings of relievers needs to be seriously reformed. It's really unfair to those guys. Nobody is going to give up a pick to sign Dotel, Grabow, Gregg, Oliver, or Betancourt. Those guys are screwed if they're offered arbitration, and most of them probably will be.

Is the complete list posted anywhere, with all players and their order?

Arbitration is going to be especially dangerous for teams this year, since a lot more players will be likely to grab it if the market looks weak.

If I were the agent to Dotel, Grabow, Gregg, Oliver and Betancourt, I'd strongly advise them to accept arbitration.
Ok, maybe not Betancourt, but definitely for the rest.

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2009/11/09/free-agent-compensation-rankings-released/

Those guys are screwed if they're offered arbitration, and most of them probably will be.

They're not screwed, just take it and get a nice raise.

Nobody is going to give up a pick to sign Dotel, Grabow, Gregg, Oliver, or Betancourt. Those guys are screwed if they're offered arbitration, and most of them probably will be.

I don't know about anyone else, but I'd be surprised if the White Sox offered arbitration to Octavio Dotel.

I think Ryan is right - teams are going to be very reluctant to offer arbitration this year, because of the risk that players will accept. Players are much more aware of the dangers of rejecting arbitration than they were last year at this time.

Those guys are screwed if they're offered arbitration, and most of them probably will be.

Most of those guys, if offered arbitration, are going to receive pretty respectable offers. In many cases, it'll probably be more than they would get in free agency - these guys just aren't that likely to be offered big multi-year deals.

If I were the agent to Dotel, Grabow, Gregg, Oliver and Betancourt, I'd strongly advise them to accept arbitration.
Ok, maybe not Betancourt, but definitely for the rest.

Well Grabow can just decline and get some dumbass 3 year deal from Hendry.

Elias's rankings of relievers needs to be seriously reformed.

Their entire rankings need to be fixed. Not only do they base them on a bunch of ######## stats that don't really reflect value, but they do wonderfully intelligent things, like compare all OF'ers as one group and base it on offense. So CF'ers get compared by offense to LF/RF'ers. Since it's a benefit to the player to be ranked lower, this screws over middling RF/LF'ers and helps CF'ers.

They're not screwed, just take it and get a nice raise.

Yes, but they're supposed to be free agents, when in practice they are still under the reserve system. More lucrative sure, but little chance to freely negotiate the terms of their employment.

If I were the agent to Dotel, Grabow, Gregg, Oliver and Betancourt, I'd strongly advise them to accept arbitration.

Oliver accepted arbitration last year, so I would assume he would accept again. I'm thinking he's going back to the Angels, but if not I'll gladly take the 1st round pick.

Yes, but they're supposed to be free agents, when in practice they are still under the reserve system.

Actually, in practice most of them will be free agents. Almost all these middling veterans will get more in arbitration than they would on the open market, so in almost all cases teams won't offer arbitration to them.

Guys who get hurt are good veterans, like Chone Figgins, who will make more money on the market than he will in arb, but not as much as if he wasn't a type-A.

I suspect that you'll start to see more clauses in veteran contracts forbidding teams from offering arbitration, and in the next CBA, free agent compensation will be bargained away.

Ok, maybe not Betancourt, but definitely for the rest.

Betancourt turned down two years and $7 million from the Rockies, which makes me think he'd turn down arbitration if they offered it to him.

Or revised that type-A means you get two comp picks instead of a comp and a first rounder.

Not so much screwed in the bottom line dollar sense (though Grabow certainly could get a multi-year deal, and other than Gregg, the others might be able to), they're screwed out of their free agency, and having a reasonable say in where they're going to play. Freedom is supposed to be the reward for playing six years at below market pay. Is it really fair that because Elias doesn't know how to rate relievers, John Grabow will probably have to play for the Cubs if he's offered (or sit a la Cruz), rather than be able to choose from 10 teams.

Or revised that type-A means you get two comp picks instead of a comp and a first rounder.

Well, depending on who signs your boy, 2 comp picks are better.

He'll be fine. There's no way he'll be offered arbitration (because he'd almost certainly accept), so teams will just wait until the Cubs don't make him an offer.

I would (...offer arbitration).

He's -- to use a term from another thread -- not unuseful.

He made 4.25 mil last year -- no way he gets a raise out of last year's number. Figuring the Cubs would go with the max arb cut (if it came to that), ~3.5 mil is overpaying, but not exorbitantly so. It would be something of a dick move -- a naked pick grab attempt - but Gregg was pretty bad last year, so I don't feel like the team owes his crap.

Rich Harden certainly wasn't great last year, but the fact he's a 'B' while Gregg is an 'A' just goes to show how monumentally stupid Elias' rankings are.

Well, depending on who signs your boy, 2 comp picks are better.

Better for the team losing the free agent, maybe, but not better for the owners as a whole.

Right now, the free agent compensation system is having a dampening effect on the salaries of a certain class of middle-tier veteran. Which is exactly the effect that I think Selig & co. want to see (although I think they stumbled upon this little effect by accident). The MLBPA almost certainly wants it to change, but they'll have to give up something, I think (like draft pick slotting) in the next CBA to get it.

I suspect that you'll start to see more clauses in veteran contracts forbidding teams from offering arbitration, and in the next CBA, free agent compensation will be bargained away.

I suspect it will be gone, soon, too...

The compensation rules are the only thing that gives the MLBPA any say so in the June draft -- and to the MLBPA, it's really just a bargaining chip.

If the owners did away with FA compensation - they'd be free to implement an NFL/NBA style slotting system into the draft. Of course, Boras would be in court faster than... well, faster it took me to type 'Boras' - but once you essentially move the draft out of the basic agreement, leverage tilts very heavily to the owners in terms of how they handle the draft.

Oh my God, I would not offer Gregg arb. Even without the thought of having to give up picks, I have a hard time seeing him get more than 2M.

I hope Hendry not offering Harden while simultaneously signing Grabow to a 3 year deal is the lowpoint of the offseason. Cause if he follows that up with more of his unique brand of idiocy, then this team might be worse than last year.

The MLBPA almost certainly wants it to change, but they'll have to give up something, I think (like draft pick slotting) in the next CBA to get it.

That's the thing -- get rid of free agent compensation, and the MLBPA has no involvement whatsoever with the draft.

As amateurs - players eligible for the ammy draft aren't covered under the MLBPA/MLB collective bargaining agreement. The MLBPA only has some say over the draft by proxy because FA compensation is tied to it. Remove compensation -- and MLB can do whatever it wants with the draft, and the MLBPA wouldn't have any grounds to object.

Their entire rankings need to be fixed. Not only do they base them on a bunch of ######## stats that don't really reflect value, but they do wonderfully intelligent things, like compare all OF'ers as one group and base it on offense. So CF'ers get compared by offense to LF/RF'ers. Since it's a benefit to the player to be ranked lower, this screws over middling RF/LF'ers and helps CF'ers.

I love that Mike Cameron, a four-win player the last two years, is a Type B free agent. I actually do love it, because it means the Brewers might offer him arbitration and get a pick for him, but seriously, how fucking broken is that system?

Oh my God, I would not offer Gregg arb. Even without the thought of having to give up picks, I have a hard time seeing him get more than 2M.

I hope Hendry not offering Harden while simultaneously signing Grabow to a 3 year deal is the lowpoint of the offseason. Cause if he follows that up with more of his unique brand of idiocy, then this team might be worse than last year.

Why not?

Despite his putrid season, Gregg isn't a bad #2/#3 to have in your bullpen, and it's not like there's any sort of risk of him getting some budget buster contract.

The downside is limited enough that, while I don't really care to see Gregg back in a Cubs uni, I'd roll the dice on some picks.

If you end up getting him back/he accepts arbitration - he becomes eminently flippable at the deadline, as a not exorbitantly priced fungible reliever on a one year deal.... or... he returns to his semi-useful ways and becomes worth keeping.

I wouldn't offer arbitration to say a... Jason Marquis... if he were still on the team, but a reliever like Gregg? Sure...

Are the Cubs officially not offering Harden arbitration? Because if so - that's just stupid. Even though he's only a 'B' -- the whole problem with Harden is not wanting to get into a long-term deal with a guy that could boom at any time. I wouldn't be above Harden coming back on a one-year deal... He'll almost certainly get not-much-if-at-all more in arbitration than he made last year.

As amateurs - players eligible for the ammy draft aren't covered under the MLBPA/MLB collective bargaining agreement. The MLBPA only has some say over the draft by proxy because FA compensation is tied to it. Remove compensation -- and MLB can do whatever it wants with the draft, and the MLBPA wouldn't have any grounds to object.

I thought the MLBPA still would have a say (at least in theory) in the draft, because some players in the draft get major-league contracts. (Is Steven Strasburg an MLBPA member right now?) So any changes to the draft would still need to clear the CBA. But I could be wrong about that.

Why not?

Because wasting 4M of a limited budget on your 4th best reliever is a collosal waste. Especially when you could likely not offer him arbitration and get him back on a cheaper 1 year deal. Do you believe there is a market out there for Gregg where a team will give up a draft pick and sign him for 4M+/a multi-year deal? Gregg was terrible last year, and doesn't have enough of a track record to convince teams he's due for a bounce back. If the Cubs offered arbitration, he'd be a Cub.

Would you tender Heilman a contract?

My guesses on whether they'll be offered arbitration:

Jason Bay, OF, Boston - yes
Rafael Betancourt, RP, Colorado* - yes, but they'll probably re-sign him
Orlando Cabrera, IF, Minnesota - no (they've already traded for Hardy)
Johnny Damon, OF, Yankees - yes
Octavio Dotel, RP, White Sox - yes
Jermaine Dye, OF, White Sox* - no
Chone Figgins, IF, Angels - yes
Mike Gonzalez, RP, Atlanta - yes
John Grabow, RP, Cubs - just re-signed
Kevin Gregg, RP, Cubs - no
LaTroy Hawkins, RP, Houston - no
Matt Holliday, OF, St. Louis - yes
Orlando Hudson, IF, Dodgers - no
John Lackey, SP, Angels - yes
Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia* - picked up his option
Victor Martinez, C/1B, Boston* - picked up his option
Bengie Molina, C, San Francisco - yes
Darren Oliver, RP, Angels - no
Placido Polanco, IF, Detroit - no
Manny Ramirez, OF, Dodgers* - picked up his option
Marco Scutaro, IF, Toronto - yes
Rafael Soriano, RP, Atlanta - yes
Miguel Tejada, IF, Houston - yes
Jose Valverde, RP, Houston - no
Billy Wagner, RP, Boston - no
Randy Wolf, SP, Dodgers - yes

I thought the MLBPA still would have a say (at least in theory) in the draft, because some players in the draft get major-league contracts. (Is Steven Strasburg an MLBPA member right now?) So any changes to the draft would still need to clear the CBA. But I could be wrong about that.

Well, they're not MLBPA members when they're drafted. I can't imagine they care much about what the 18 year old kid who will eventually steal their job makes.

Oh, and with regards to Harden, the Cubs haven't made it official or anything, but I've heard nothing indiciating they're interested in bringing him back.

no way a team is in such a rush to sign [Gregg] that he signs before the deadline

Kansas City?

Octavio Dotel, RP, White Sox - yes

No. Dotel made six million this year, and he'd get a raise in arb.

the Cubs haven't made it official or anything, but I've heard nothing indiciating they're interested in bringing him back.

If the bidding involves multiple years or 8-figure annual salaries, I'm okay with that. But I don't think there's any real downside to offering him arbitration with the attendant risk that Harden comes back for another year.

Johnny Damon, OF, Yankees - yes

No way the Yankees offer Damon arb. He's coming off a $13M salary, and no way he gets a pay cut off that season/post-season. He might get $15M from an arb.

They'll probably look to resign him for less.

Elias's rankings of relievers needs to be seriously reformed. It's really unfair to those guys. Nobody is going to give up a pick to sign Dotel, Grabow, Gregg, Oliver, or Betancourt. Those guys are screwed if they're offered arbitration, and most of them probably will be.

Somebody suggested recently that draft pick comp could be tied to contract value rather than the player's statistics. This would fix the problem we have where players have trouble getting offers when the draft pick comp is out of line; I also prefer it aesthetically, as the contract is a much cleaner way of estimating the player's value than an arbitrary statistical formula.

One downside is that this would suppress contract offers (possibly just at the margins, right at the steps where a small increase in an offer will cross a threshold in the draft pick compensation schedule). Still seems like a better system overall.

Re #32:

"Right now, the free agent compensation system is having a dampening effect on the salaries of a certain class of middle-tier veteran. Which is exactly the effect that I think Selig & co. want to see (although I think they stumbled upon this little effect by accident). The MLBPA almost certainly wants it to change"

I disagree, to the extent that MLBPA is not focused on the mid tier veterans. I think the MLBPA most strongly represents the interests of the top earning players, in many aspects of the business.

The middle tier veterans are getting squeezed, as a percentage of league-wide payroll, but some GMs are getting smart and not overpaying for this segment of players. MLBPA is not unhappy to see the stars prosper at the expense of the mid tier veterans.

Yes, but they're supposed to be free agents, when in practice they are still under the reserve system.

Which is why the players with smart agents (Orlando Cabrera) require when they sign with a team that they cannot be offered arbitration.

Is it really fair that because Elias doesn't know how to rate relievers, John Grabow will probably have to play for the Cubs if he's offered (or sit a la Cruz), rather than be able to choose from 10 teams.

Not to pick a nit, but it isn't really Elias that doesn't know how to rate relievers. The system is collectively bargained - Elias just applies the formula.

Not to pick a nit, but it isn't really Elias that doesn't know how to rate relievers. The system is collectively bargained - Elias just applies the formula.


Yeah, the big problem with relievers is that they are viewed as valuable for compensation as starting pitchers or any other position. That's just not correct.