I read that as "Jays trade Halladay to Cubs" and my heart nearly stopped. This is going to be a rough offseason.

What does Chicago have to get this done?

Soto, Vitters, Kip Wells.... ?

FTA

The latest development indicates that the Blue Jays asked for a package of the Cubs' top prospects -- one believed to be shortstop Starlin Castro. Chicago does not want to part with Castro and is currently unable to take on the $15.75 million Halladay is owed in 2010, making a deal between the two clubs unlikely at this point.

The Cubs would be an odd team to contact.

Whether this is true or not, I'm guessing Anthopoulos won't be dining with Cubs executives in Indianapolis next month.

Source: Dodgers and Blue Jays are discussing Halladay again. Looks like Anthopoulos is restarting the process of moving Doc.

Tim Brown

Bob Nightengale reported a similar item yesterday. He claimed the talks would also involve Billingsley, which I don't like since he's coming off a bad second half and heading into arbitration years.

Where do the people think the Jays are in terms of their expectations to compete? They seem to have been muddling along with average/slightly above average talent with some bad pitching injuries, but now don't have an impressive 25-man roster. If they trade Halladay, would they prefer to go for high-ceiling players a few years away because otherwise the talent in a trade would be wasted? Or if they dump Halladay, would the fans expect immediate returns and the Jays have the upper-level MiL talent to fill in around them?

Their expectations to compete are poor, I'd say. Ownership isn't likely to spend a lot of money, AA is just starting his rebuilding of the organization, the minor leagues don't (AFAIK) have anyone who is very interesting ready to come up in the near future, and the Wells contract is about to get really ugly. Also, without Halladay, the team will lack the kind of superstar who could help them compete in the AL East.

Ryan, how about Russell Martin. He's Canadian.

Where do the people think the Jays are in terms of their expectations to compete?

The Jays have no hope of ever competing again.

Ryan, how about Russell Martin. He's Canadian.

The Jays will want dirt cheap players in return, who are under control for a long time. Canadian or not, Martin really doesn't fit that description.

Where do the people think the Jays are in terms of their expectations to compete?

The Jays have no hope of ever competing again.

As long as they're in the East, and owned by Rogers, I'm inclined to agree with this statement.

The Jays will want dirt cheap players in return, who are under control for a long time. Canadian or not, Martin really doesn't fit that description.

But he'll take Canadian money!

Another owner wouldn't be better. Rogers, at least, can make money off them via the radio station and TV channel. Another owner would have to rely more fully on the gate, and I sure wouldn't want to put myself in that position. Not in Toronto. In fact, I'm not sure there is anybody else who'd be interested in owning the team.

I bet Cuban would be happy to have a new toy.

I bet Cuban would be happy to have a new toy.

I bet he would. However, there's no way he's getting a team as long as Bud's around, and it's doubtful that he'd be happy having a new toy in Toronto.

Ryan, how about Russell Martin. He's Canadian.

Racist!

Ryan, how about Russell Martin. He's Canadian.

Racist!

Well, how about African-American Canadian then?

Go for it Hendry. A chance to get an ace does not come along every day.

Castro, Vitters and Jackson for Halladay?

I would gladly part with Vitters, Jackson, Cashner, and one of the myraid of SS not named Castro, but I don't think I'd part with Castro.

I realize that in a fair trade, Castro has to be included, but the rotation isn't the Cubs problem - so as good as Doc is, he doesn't guarantee anything.... not to mention, 60 million on the rotation?

The Cubs seem to be an odd trading partner for Toronto, unless the Jays are looking for major league ready averagish-to-slightly-below-averageish cheap talent. If they're looking to stay cheap and mediocre for the long term then a package of Sean Marshall/Jake Fox/ Mike Fontenot should be a start.

Halladay is like a canary in the mine for the Blue Jays' franchise. In my now long life, I can't recall a player as loyal to a franchise as Halladay, who wants to be traded because the structure of the division is one where his team could never compete for a playoff position. Not a case where a team can't afford a player, not a situation where the player wants out, just a situation where it's structurally impossible to compete for the playoffs during a long career. And the long range fortune of the franchise doesn't at all depend on who they get for him, because it doesn't really matter.

Obligatory.

Halladay has the kind of contract that the Cubs should be looking for. 15 million and for one year is an easy risk for the Cubs to take. The bigger problem is what it would take for that one year of service.

i dont think id let go of castro, hell i would givie him a shot at the bigs next year and slide theriot over to second base to start the year, keeping baker on the roster in case it doesnt work out and move fontonot or use him as a back up and get rid of miles

the structure of the division is one where his team could never compete for a playoff position. Not a case where a team can't afford a player, not a situation where the player wants out, just a situation where it's structurally impossible to compete for the playoffs during a long career.

The Jays did win two World Series and five division titles right? With the same teams plus Cleveland and Detroit in the division, right?

The Jays did win two World Series and five division titles right? With the same teams plus Cleveland and Detroit in the division, right?

According to USA Today the Jays had the third highest payroll in 1992. The highest in ’93. Not in their division, mind. In all of baseball.

the Jays had the third highest payroll in 1992. The highest in ’93.

Yeah, Skydome used to be a real cash cow. Then came Camden Yards and the Orioles had a bunch of money to throw around. George Steinbrenner started complaining that the Yankees would never be able to compete without a new stadium. That was entertaining.

According to USA Today the Jays had the third highest payroll in 1992. The highest in ’93. Not in their division, mind. In all of baseball.

And Oakland had a higher payroll than the Yankees. Those were good times.

Halladay has the kind of contract that the Cubs should be looking for. 15 million and for one year is an easy risk for the Cubs to take. The bigger problem is what it would take for that one year of service.

Hence the problem. $15 mil for Halladay may be below market, but it isn't that much below market that it justifies emptying the farm system. Acknowledging the huge caveat that these are Cubs position player prospects we're talking about, one or more of those young players could produce many times more value than Halladay 1yr/$15 mil. I wouldn't do it.

The money has nothing to do with what you would give up for Halladay it is the one year part that is the problem for that.

The Jays did win two World Series and five division titles right? With the same teams plus Cleveland and Detroit in the division, right?

Yes, but that was before

a) the Yankees and Red Sox started spending way more money on top talent than it's feasible for Toronto to spend, while
b) becoming pretty smart about just how they were spending that money.

I think it's possible for a team in the Jays' situation to be successful. Not easy, but possible. The only problem is that the Jays don't have the kind of people in the organization who are capable of that, and they seem to have decided that the only people eligible for their key front office positions are people who are already in the organization.

Anthopoulos is allowing teams interested in trading for Halladay to negotiate an extension with him. In principle, that should yield a better return than would a single year of Halladay. Of course, the Santana trade continues to loom as a counter-example.

Halladay's big FA contract could come a year early, if he wants it. Even though it's a thin FA market, he still might decide to hold off a year, when fewer teams are crying poor. And when the McCourt fiasco in LA is resolved.

I think it's possible for a team in the Jays' situation to be successful. Not easy, but possible. The only problem is that the Jays don't have the kind of people in the organization who are capable of that, and they seem to have decided that the only people eligible for their key front office positions are people who are already in the organization.

Yes. They can be successful, but it will take a 5+ year effort. Realistically, they need to get smart management, develop good talent internally, and reinvest all the profits into the team, while building up their market.

They've drawn 4 million in the past. I'm pretty sure Toronto (and all of Eastern Canada -which is their for the taking) can be a large baseball market again. But, they're going to have to really cultivate it. It won't happen overnight, unless they fluke into a World Series appearance. If they did what the Rays have done, they could easily generate the revenue to sustain the success.

That said, I don't know if a corporate owner is capable of that kind of long-term plan. They should be, since the Blue Jays are a tiny portion of their profits, but corporate management has shown itself to be short-sighted so many times before.

Yes. They can be successful, but it will take a 5+ year effort. Realistically, they need to get smart management, develop good talent internally, and reinvest all the profits into the team, while building up their market.

All while competing against two organizations who have a massive headstart in terms of both in-house management, financial resources, television/radio access, and market development.

We've heard for years that the best way to develop a market is through winning. With massive current economic disadvantages compared to two of their division mates, who are both guided by extremely intelligent management teams, the Jays are almost certainly headed for another string of middling 75-85 win seasons. How are those going to be of any use in developing a market? The casual fan, which is what needs to be cultivated to grow a market, doesn't come out for losers.

If they did what the Rays have done, they could easily generate the revenue to sustain the success.

What the Rays did? You mean have idiotic ownership drive the team to a decade's worth of last place finishes, followed by a sudden sale and the somewhat flukish event of having all their talent develop at the same time as one of their major competitors has their worst year since the early 90s, only to see that competitor then go out and buy three of the premium free agents on the market?

That doesn't strike me as a highly repeatable plan.

All while competing against two organizations who have a massive headstart in terms of both in-house management, financial resources, television/radio access, and market development.


Yeah they've got to catch up. It will be hard, but it can be done.

Toronto has shown it can be a huge baseball market. No reason they can't compete financially with Boston at least.

They're going to have some down years now. They have to use the Halladay trade, and the next few drafts to build a real talent base. They need to spend over slot to get better prospects and spend on international bonuses. Then when they develop good players (e.g. Lind, maybe Snider, and Romero) they'll need to lock them up long-term. Of course, they'll need a good front-office above all.

Not saying it will be easy. But, the Yankees and Red Sox will stumble eventually. The young Steinbrenners clearly don't want to spend like George, that's why the payroll has plateaued. They're also going to face estate tax issue when he dies. I assume they're going to start hording cash against that eventuality. And the Red Sox operate under a self-imposed cap as well.

The young Steinbrenners clearly don't want to spend like George, that's why the payroll has plateaued.

At about $200M. With an organization worth somewhere on the order of $1B. And a sports network worth something estimated in the multi-billion range.

The Yankees didn't stop spending because they had hit some sort of hard cap - all evidence points to them still being wildy profitable. They stopped spending on payroll because they've only got so many roster spots in which to drop their acquisitions, which they've mostly filled with All-Star level talent. Should the Jays (or Rays, or Orioles) start spending anywhere close to what the Yankees currently do (or even at a much lower level, while threatening the Yankees' regular appearances in the post-season), you'll certainly see the Yankee coffers open up again, just as they did last post-season.

The Red Sox aren't in much of a different state, and a self-imposed cap on spending is not at all the same as a market-imposed cap on spending. Should circumstances dictate (like the threat of another team bumping them out of the playoff race), the Red Sox can always remove those self-imposed restraints, without dipping into debt.

I think the Jays should just start playing hockey. Anything has to be better than the Leafs this year.

It's probably just memories of the early 90's, but I don't see how the Jays situation is hopeless. Obviously it's silly to expect a return to the level of popularity that comes with a couple world titles and a brand new space-age ballpark (with a hotel!), but they're not the Rays. A ~$100m payroll seems very possible, and a ~$100m payroll that isn't (~$75m + Vernon Wells), and does include a few talented, cost-controlled players should be able to compete.

[38] What, Kessel's not working out for ya?

If the Cubs can get Halladay for two of their top prospects (including Castro -- I see no one in the Cubs system who looks untouchable) and a fungible starter (Marshall?) I think they should do it. I feel pretty good about Halladay through, say, age 37.

A ~$100m payroll seems very possible...

Especially since they've had a $100M payroll in the very recent past.

And the Wells contract doesn't get bad until this coming season.

What, Kessel's not working out for ya?

Kessel's been great. Unfortunately, the rest of the forwards are terrible.

Unfortunately, the rest of the forwards are terrible.

The defense and goaltending haven't exactly been great either. q

If the Cubs can get Halladay for two of their top prospects (including Castro -- I see no one in the Cubs system who looks untouchable) and a fungible starter (Marshall?) I think they should do it. I feel pretty good about Halladay through, say, age 37.

You mean if they can negotiate an extension for $20M/year till then?

You mean if they can negotiate an extension for $20M/year till then?

Assumed, yes.

Halladay for Zambrano and Marshall.

Halladay for Zambrano and Marshall.

That'd be fun.

Halladay has the kind of contract that the Cubs should be looking for. 15 million and for one year is an easy risk for the Cubs to take.

Maybe. The Cubs are already committed to $120 M. Last year's payroll was $138. The Cubs have a lot of potential first-time arb players -- Marmol, Theriot, Marshall, Gorzelanny, Fontenot (non-tendered?), Guzman and Baker -- who will eat up a sizeable chunk for that gap. Oh, for some reason Cot's doesn't list the $2.5 M we owe Miles nor do they yet list the $3.5 M we're paying Grabow. The Cubs are already at last year's payroll.

I don't foresee new owners wanting to substantially increase payroll. The Cubs don't have any easily tradeable big-money contracts to free up payroll space -- Ted Lilly at 1/$13.5 would be easily tradeable, Lee at $13.5 is tradeable (maybe with a smidgen of cash) and then Bradley's contract is probably the Cubs 3rd most tradeable contract (seriously!). So the only way to create payroll space for Halladay is to open a gaping hole elsewhere (or miraculously find someone to take on all of Bradley's 2/$24).

The Cubs are just screwed. Unless Ricketts is gonna push the payroll to $150+ M, they can't make any moves this offseason. And, happily enough, if you include Grabow and 2nd-year arb awards (plus Soto), the Cubs are probably near $120 M committed for 2011.

The Cubs are just screwed. Unless Ricketts is gonna push the payroll to $150+ M, they can't make any moves this offseason.

The new owners have suggested that they are willing to increase payroll. The suckers.

We've discussed this before, but I believe there is more flexibility than you do. The Cubs are about as backs-to-the-wall as an organization with a lot of resources can be, but I won't be surprised to see them add some more meat. Better Halladay than Figgins.

You don't need payroll space for a one year contract.

The Cubs aren't going to trade for Halladay and keep him for one year.

I think they should trade for him and then sign him to a 1-year, $100 million extension. Then we'll see whether teams need payroll space for a one year contract.

They've drawn 4 million in the past. I'm pretty sure Toronto (and all of Eastern Canada -which is their for the taking) can be a large baseball market again.

I think you would have to stop at the Ontario/Quebec border.Not sure how many fans are left in Quebec with the Expos leaving, and the Red Sox have pretty well retaken their ownership of the Maritime provinces.

and the Red Sox have pretty well retaken their ownership of the Maritime provinces.

Yeah, where would the Blue Jays be without the Maritimes as a market. Ontario's still a 12 million person market, and Quebec less Montreal bumps that up to 15 million. (No self-respecting Montrealler'd ever be a fan of any Toronto team, and any self-respecting Toronto team would provide them with naught but a map to a short pier anyhow.)

Toronto proper is 2.5 million today, and was two and a quarter million in '91. The growth of Peel, York, Mississauga is even more substantial. If we could draw 4 million/year in '91, no reason we couldn't do it today. Beyond Hockey, the Toronto sports team have no real long-term loyalty, and the market for fans when the Buds ain't playin' is open. It's a good market.