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Soto, Vitters, Kip Wells.... ?
The Cubs would be an odd team to contact.
Whether this is true or not, I'm guessing Anthopoulos won't be dining with Cubs executives in Indianapolis next month.
Tim Brown
The Jays have no hope of ever competing again.
The Jays will want dirt cheap players in return, who are under control for a long time. Canadian or not, Martin really doesn't fit that description.
As long as they're in the East, and owned by Rogers, I'm inclined to agree with this statement.
But he'll take Canadian money!
I bet he would. However, there's no way he's getting a team as long as Bud's around, and it's doubtful that he'd be happy having a new toy in Toronto.
Racist!
Well, how about African-American Canadian then?
I realize that in a fair trade, Castro has to be included, but the rotation isn't the Cubs problem - so as good as Doc is, he doesn't guarantee anything.... not to mention, 60 million on the rotation?
The Jays did win two World Series and five division titles right? With the same teams plus Cleveland and Detroit in the division, right?
According to USA Today the Jays had the third highest payroll in 1992. The highest in ’93. Not in their division, mind. In all of baseball.
Yeah, Skydome used to be a real cash cow. Then came Camden Yards and the Orioles had a bunch of money to throw around. George Steinbrenner started complaining that the Yankees would never be able to compete without a new stadium. That was entertaining.
And Oakland had a higher payroll than the Yankees. Those were good times.
Hence the problem. $15 mil for Halladay may be below market, but it isn't that much below market that it justifies emptying the farm system. Acknowledging the huge caveat that these are Cubs position player prospects we're talking about, one or more of those young players could produce many times more value than Halladay 1yr/$15 mil. I wouldn't do it.
Yes, but that was before
a) the Yankees and Red Sox started spending way more money on top talent than it's feasible for Toronto to spend, while
b) becoming pretty smart about just how they were spending that money.
I think it's possible for a team in the Jays' situation to be successful. Not easy, but possible. The only problem is that the Jays don't have the kind of people in the organization who are capable of that, and they seem to have decided that the only people eligible for their key front office positions are people who are already in the organization.
Halladay's big FA contract could come a year early, if he wants it. Even though it's a thin FA market, he still might decide to hold off a year, when fewer teams are crying poor. And when the McCourt fiasco in LA is resolved.
Yes. They can be successful, but it will take a 5+ year effort. Realistically, they need to get smart management, develop good talent internally, and reinvest all the profits into the team, while building up their market.
They've drawn 4 million in the past. I'm pretty sure Toronto (and all of Eastern Canada -which is their for the taking) can be a large baseball market again. But, they're going to have to really cultivate it. It won't happen overnight, unless they fluke into a World Series appearance. If they did what the Rays have done, they could easily generate the revenue to sustain the success.
That said, I don't know if a corporate owner is capable of that kind of long-term plan. They should be, since the Blue Jays are a tiny portion of their profits, but corporate management has shown itself to be short-sighted so many times before.
All while competing against two organizations who have a massive headstart in terms of both in-house management, financial resources, television/radio access, and market development.
We've heard for years that the best way to develop a market is through winning. With massive current economic disadvantages compared to two of their division mates, who are both guided by extremely intelligent management teams, the Jays are almost certainly headed for another string of middling 75-85 win seasons. How are those going to be of any use in developing a market? The casual fan, which is what needs to be cultivated to grow a market, doesn't come out for losers.
What the Rays did? You mean have idiotic ownership drive the team to a decade's worth of last place finishes, followed by a sudden sale and the somewhat flukish event of having all their talent develop at the same time as one of their major competitors has their worst year since the early 90s, only to see that competitor then go out and buy three of the premium free agents on the market?
That doesn't strike me as a highly repeatable plan.
Yeah they've got to catch up. It will be hard, but it can be done.
Toronto has shown it can be a huge baseball market. No reason they can't compete financially with Boston at least.
They're going to have some down years now. They have to use the Halladay trade, and the next few drafts to build a real talent base. They need to spend over slot to get better prospects and spend on international bonuses. Then when they develop good players (e.g. Lind, maybe Snider, and Romero) they'll need to lock them up long-term. Of course, they'll need a good front-office above all.
Not saying it will be easy. But, the Yankees and Red Sox will stumble eventually. The young Steinbrenners clearly don't want to spend like George, that's why the payroll has plateaued. They're also going to face estate tax issue when he dies. I assume they're going to start hording cash against that eventuality. And the Red Sox operate under a self-imposed cap as well.
At about $200M. With an organization worth somewhere on the order of $1B. And a sports network worth something estimated in the multi-billion range.
The Yankees didn't stop spending because they had hit some sort of hard cap - all evidence points to them still being wildy profitable. They stopped spending on payroll because they've only got so many roster spots in which to drop their acquisitions, which they've mostly filled with All-Star level talent. Should the Jays (or Rays, or Orioles) start spending anywhere close to what the Yankees currently do (or even at a much lower level, while threatening the Yankees' regular appearances in the post-season), you'll certainly see the Yankee coffers open up again, just as they did last post-season.
The Red Sox aren't in much of a different state, and a self-imposed cap on spending is not at all the same as a market-imposed cap on spending. Should circumstances dictate (like the threat of another team bumping them out of the playoff race), the Red Sox can always remove those self-imposed restraints, without dipping into debt.
[38] What, Kessel's not working out for ya?
Especially since they've had a $100M payroll in the very recent past.
And the Wells contract doesn't get bad until this coming season.
Kessel's been great. Unfortunately, the rest of the forwards are terrible.
The defense and goaltending haven't exactly been great either. q
You mean if they can negotiate an extension for $20M/year till then?
Assumed, yes.
That'd be fun.
Maybe. The Cubs are already committed to $120 M. Last year's payroll was $138. The Cubs have a lot of potential first-time arb players -- Marmol, Theriot, Marshall, Gorzelanny, Fontenot (non-tendered?), Guzman and Baker -- who will eat up a sizeable chunk for that gap. Oh, for some reason Cot's doesn't list the $2.5 M we owe Miles nor do they yet list the $3.5 M we're paying Grabow. The Cubs are already at last year's payroll.
I don't foresee new owners wanting to substantially increase payroll. The Cubs don't have any easily tradeable big-money contracts to free up payroll space -- Ted Lilly at 1/$13.5 would be easily tradeable, Lee at $13.5 is tradeable (maybe with a smidgen of cash) and then Bradley's contract is probably the Cubs 3rd most tradeable contract (seriously!). So the only way to create payroll space for Halladay is to open a gaping hole elsewhere (or miraculously find someone to take on all of Bradley's 2/$24).
The Cubs are just screwed. Unless Ricketts is gonna push the payroll to $150+ M, they can't make any moves this offseason. And, happily enough, if you include Grabow and 2nd-year arb awards (plus Soto), the Cubs are probably near $120 M committed for 2011.
The new owners have suggested that they are willing to increase payroll. The suckers.
We've discussed this before, but I believe there is more flexibility than you do. The Cubs are about as backs-to-the-wall as an organization with a lot of resources can be, but I won't be surprised to see them add some more meat. Better Halladay than Figgins.
I think you would have to stop at the Ontario/Quebec border.Not sure how many fans are left in Quebec with the Expos leaving, and the Red Sox have pretty well retaken their ownership of the Maritime provinces.
Yeah, where would the Blue Jays be without the Maritimes as a market. Ontario's still a 12 million person market, and Quebec less Montreal bumps that up to 15 million. (No self-respecting Montrealler'd ever be a fan of any Toronto team, and any self-respecting Toronto team would provide them with naught but a map to a short pier anyhow.)
Toronto proper is 2.5 million today, and was two and a quarter million in '91. The growth of Peel, York, Mississauga is even more substantial. If we could draw 4 million/year in '91, no reason we couldn't do it today. Beyond Hockey, the Toronto sports team have no real long-term loyalty, and the market for fans when the Buds ain't playin' is open. It's a good market.
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