Done Deal - Jacobs for Leo Nunez.

On the one hand this does provide MUCH needed power in the lineup. On the other hand, Jacobs is susceptible to lefties, is likely to lose much of his power in spacious Kauffman as opposed to Dolphin Stadium, is terrible defensively, and had an OBA of .299 last year. This shows a clear trend in Dayton's philosophy in acquiring low OBA players (or players whose OBAs are inflated by their batting average - see Gathright, Joey, Callaspo, Alberto, Guillen, Jose)

Rany is not a fan

WTF? The Royals already have three first basemen plus a guy who can only play DH. I guess Kila Ka'aihue will be back in Omaha in 2009.

And they had an almost unprecedented lack of walks this year. A .299 OBA helps how?

This had better be leading up to something else.

That's right, I'm saying trading Leo Nunez for a guy who had 32 home runs this year is completely inexplicable.

I don't know how happy I would be if I were a Royals fan, but Mike Jacobs in a hitter's park might be a lot of fun.

Do the Marlins move Willingham to first now? Makes sense to me.

(throws his hands up in the air)

Do the Marlins move Willingham to first now? Makes sense to me.

No, Jorge Cantu will move to 1B. Willingham is being shopped too supposedly.

I don't know how happy I would be if I were a Royals fan, but Mike Jacobs in a hitter's park might be a lot of fun.

I don't think Kauffman is much of a home run park. It is good for doubles and triples, but not so much home runs.

Also, I think this sets up Billy Butler being run out of town for pennies on the dollar.

is likely to lose much of his power in spacious Kauffman as opposed to Dolphin Stadium

Huh? I thought Dolphin Stadium was one of the worst hitter's parks in the majors.

WTF? The Royals already have three first basemen plus a guy who can only play DH. I guess Kila Ka'aihue will be back in Omaha in 2009.

This is where I'm confused. They now have Butler, Ka'aihue, and Jacobs and two spots.

There's a lot of offseason left for the Royals to move redundant pieces & improve the shape of the roster. Kansas City got a decent piece of talent considering what they gave up.

Jacobs is a guy who could be an all-star level player in a good batting average year. Isn't this the kind of high risk/reward player a team like KC should go after?

EDIT: I didn't see much of KC this season. Is there no chance Butler or Ka'aihue could be competent in the outfield?

WTF is this? Wasn't there an article posted soon after the end of the season in which Moore discussed the players needing to take a step forward and that he used the term OBP like 15 times in it?

I think my personal needle on Moore just moved from "guardedly optimistic" to "not capable."

Jacobs is not a good player, but could be useful as a platoon DH. Don't let him face a lefty or wear a fielding glove, and he's OK.

There's a lot of offseason left for the Royals to move redundant pieces & improve the shape of the roster. Kansas City got a decent piece of talent considering what they gave up.

I'm pretty sure that in Moore's mind this trade makes the best Royals hitting prospect of my lifetime a redundant piece to be moved.

No, Jorge Cantu will move to 1B.

Gaby Sanchez will be given a shot at the job in ST.

-- MWE

What happens (or happened) to Ryan Shealy, then? He hit pretty well in his call-up after spending the year hitting well in Omaha.

(Not that he deserves anybody to hold a spot for him. More curious than anything.)

I'm pretty sure that in Moore's mind this trade makes the best Royals hitting prospect of my lifetime a redundant piece to be moved.

Eric Hosmer's not going anywhere.

-- MWE

WTF is this? Wasn't there an article posted soon after the end of the season in which Moore discussed the players needing to take a step forward and that he used the term OBP like 15 times in it?

I think my personal needle on Moore just moved from "guardedly optimistic" to "not capable."

Last year the primary 1B with the Royals was Russ Gload, and his whopping 75 OPS+. The primary DH was Billy Butler, and his 89 OPS+. The team as a whole hit a monstrous 120 HR, with a team leading 20 HR from Jose Guillen.

Even though Jacobs' OBP was low, his last season represents an improvement over either Gload or Butler's performance, and provides the Royals with a player who has a legitimate shot at 30 HR (I'm not saying he will hit 30 HR, but it is at least a reasonable possibility), which they haven't really had for quite a while. For the cost of Leo Nunez, and with some careful use of Jacobs, his addition does represent a decent potential upgrade for the Royals, while being cheap enough that the Royals can dump him if he tanks and if both Butler and Ka'aihue go nuts.

To say that Moore is "not capable" because of this move is ridiculous.

I'm skeptical, BBHC.

I think Post #2 is correct regarding Ka'aihue - who has not yet seen AAA.

EDIT: And Ka'aihue had an OPS around .875 at AA. It's good enough to make him interesting but not enough to hand him a starting job in 2009. Does he even project to hit an .800 OPS at the major league level?

Wasn't there an article posted soon after the end of the season in which Moore discussed the players needing to take a step forward

I'm curious, as KC gets little play here in Philly, is Butler seen as an underachiever who isn't giving it his all? Acquiring someone like Jacobs, who starts eating up Butler's playing time, could be a wake up call to someone who thinks he's on easy street.

Eric Hosmer's not going anywhere.

Fair point.

is Butler seen as an underachiever who isn't giving it his all?

No, he's seen as a guy who can't do anything but DH.

-- MWE

is Butler seen as an underachiever who isn't giving it his all?

I don't know if he's giving his all, but he's not showing any power, and he's not even showing much OBP. That's supposed to be his strength, too. He's still young, but as pointed out earlier, the Royals couldn't hit a HR to save their soul last season.

No, he's seen as a guy who can't do anything but DH.

Which would also apply to Jacobs and Guillen. Factor in the concern that Gordon can't handle 3B, and I'm at a loss as to what Moore's doing here though I'm probably overreacting fairly foolishly.

He's still young, but as pointed out earlier, the Royals couldn't hit a HR to save their soul last season.

I'm pretty sure the Royals gave up their soul for a call in Game 6 of the '85 World Series.

#16 Wrong brother. Kila, of the Royals, had a 1.086 and 1.079 OPS in AA and AAA and got a few AB with the Royals putting up a .804 OPS. Kila is ready. And now pretty much just got screwed as far as I can tell.

The Marlins still have Dallas McPherson, right? He hit a ton in the minors. Jacobs needs to DH. He has zero range.

edit - #23 covered it.

#16 Wrong brother. Kila, of the Royals, had a 1.086 and 1.079 OPS in AA and AAA and got a few AB with the Royals putting up a .804 OPS. Kila is ready. And now pretty much just got screwed as far as I can tell.

I'm sure this is the first time they've been mixed up...

They both play first base?

Searching on B-Ref just using the surname "Kaaihue" takes you to Kala's page rather than a pick list - which was the source of my confusion.

Just because Jacobs is an upgrade on Butler/Gload in '08 doesn't mean he's worth bringing in. The Royals still aren't close to contention, and Jacobs is a 28-year-old (his birthday is today, oddly) platoon DH who starts to get expensive in 2010. I know I'm stealing someone's thunder here, but Mike Jacobs isn't going to be part of the next Royals team that contends. Ka'aihue and Butler have a chance to be. Blocking them is a terrible move. On top of that, I think Nunez is pretty talented.

Nunez has a big arm, and Jacobs isn't a good fit for the Royals, in terms of their needs. Unless there's a follow-up move, I don't get this from KC's POV.

Even though Jacobs' OBP was low, his last season represents an improvement over either Gload

My grandmother is an improvement over Ross Gload.

is Butler seen as an underachiever who isn't giving it his all?

Yes. Supposedly he is the one Guillen called out this summer. And there are grumblings the Royals management is not enamored with his work ethic which led to his demotion. I would not at all be surprised to see Butler dealt.

I'm softening on this deal. Yea Jacobs has a lot of flaws in his game - defense, OBA, lefties. But he does provide legit 20-30 home run power, something the Royals sorely need. I would like to see what Shealy or Kila could do, but both are huge question marks - Shealy is nearly 30 now with very little MLB production to show for it, and Kila was a complete non-prospect before this year. This will make the team better in the short-term. I just worry about Dayton's complete inability to find strong OBA hitters for this ballclub. Its almost like he wants to find guys with low OBAs.

I don't have an opinion on this trade, I just wanted to pop in to say that I absolutely adore AG#1F's new name. Or is it old, and I simply failed to notice it before? Either way: awesome.

If someone uses "Damon: Fighter of the Night Man" as a BBTF handle, then I will truly be impressed.

I don't have an opinion on this trade, I just wanted to pop in to say that I absolutely adore AG#1F's new name. Or is it old, and I simply failed to notice it before? Either way: awesome.

It is new, created just after the "Its Always Sunny in Philadelphia" episode entitled "Dennis Reynolds: An Erotic Life" which for some reason cracked me up.

You know, I went to a few Royals games two years ago, was really excited for the Moore era, and have adopted KC as my MLB team. (I truly love baseball, but living in Iowa have never had a team to follow). Since then I've been pretty dis-impressed with what I've seen.

Apologies to AG#1F and Garth if I've jinxed anything.

Speaking of handles, everytime I read "karkface killah" the chorus of "Cat Scratch Fever" by Ted Nugent pops into my head.

My friend and I were walking through LAX one time and saw Nugent waiting at a gate. We went up and my friend asked him, "Are you Ted Nugent?" "Full-time," was his response.

Still kills me.

I recall reading an article about Jacobs (last off season maybe?) with the basic premise that he had the highest amount or percentage of "for sure" homers in the majors, but his power was being held back by the incoming wind and other factors at Dolphin Stadium, and thus all else being equal, his power would shoot up at a more neutral park. I don't recall all the specifics about the article, but it was interesting, especially given his hr/iso jump this year. I don't know how Kaufmann would effect that premise, but something to note.

And it's Leo Nunez. It's a buying opportunity at that cost, and smart to buy at a discount whenever you can. I don't know how the rumors of moving Teahan effect KC's thinking (if at all) but there might be a tie-in.

See, I think of "The Mystery of Chessboxin'" by Wu-Tang. "Introducing the karkface killah... no one can get iller."

Anyway, I mean, are the Royals playing Rotisserie? If not, who cares how many HR the guy hits? He still doesn't end up being a good offensive player by 1B/DH standards, and he can't field at all, and on a rebuilding team, he blocks players who are more likely to be significant future contributors than he is. So, yeah, no good. (Even if Nunez isn't much -- which is not at all apparent, he actually looks pretty good to me -- you still could have at least put him towards a more useful purpose.)

I think this is just a great deal for the Royals. Lefty bats entering their primes who are good for 60 XBH in pitcher's parks do not grow on trees. Particularly cheap ones. That this one happens to have deficiencies in speed, defense and contact is what made this deal possible. This buys time for the Royals to see if Kila is for real, and it provides an added trade chip. Jacobs will provide much needed pop in the middle of the Royals order and should be able to drive in runners, something they are sorely lacking.

This is the sort of deal that you have to pull the trigger on because of the lopsided value. Dayton Moore just managed to get a pretty valuable property for a middle reliever, albeit a good one, and kudos to him for that.

Anyway, I mean, are the Royals playing Rotisserie? If not, who cares how many HR the guy hits?

I think that at a certain point, you need to have someone who can drive in runners. Jacobs won't fix the Royals OBP problems unless he gets his BA over about 280-290, but he will do alot more than Gload/Shealy to produce runs.

Searching on B-Ref just using the surname "Kaaihue" takes you to Kala's page rather than a pick list - which was the source of my confusion.

Ah, but when you search for "Ka'aihue" you get Kila's page. BB-ref changed the spelling when he reached the majors, following the lead of most of the media. When oh when will there be a consistent 'okina policy at BB-ref.com?!? The SABR minor leagues database just lists both of them (and their dad) as being "Kaaihue".

Jacobs won't fix the Royals OBP problems unless he gets his BA over about 280-290, but he will do alot more than Gload/Shealy to produce runs.

To be fair, you'd have to look @ what'll be in front of Jacobs (assuming he'll be a clean-up hitter for KC) to really assess how productive he'll be. According to BB-Ref, this is what he had in front of him (most of the time) when he was hitting in the 4 spot for the Marlins:

1) Ramirez (.400 OBP)
2) Hermida (.322 OBP)
3) Cantu (.327 OBP)

As a Royal, he'll probably have this in front of him (again, using the person who batted the most in those spots):

1) DeJesus (.366 OBP)
2) Aviles (.354 OBP)
3) Gordon (.351 OBP)

If those numbers hold (assuming Aviles doesn't have a soph slump in his first full MLB season), he (and the Royals) could do just fine.

As for the issue of 1B / DH crowding, splitting time between Jacobs (L), Butler (R), and Ka'aihue (L) for those two spots isn't the worst thing they could do.

"See, I think of "The Mystery of Chessboxin'" by Wu-Tang."

I miss ODB.

I miss ODB.

Don't you mean Big Baby Jesus?

I miss him too.

at a certain point, you need to have someone who can drive in runners.

As a Royal, he'll probably have this in front of him (again, using the person who batted the most in those spots):

1) DeJesus (.366 OBP)
2) Aviles (.354 OBP)
3) Gordon (.351 OBP)

So... the argument is that the Royals are so OBP-heavy/SLG-deficient that Jacobs' skill set will be of special value to them? Creative, but I think pretty obviously not borne out by the facts. Jacobs is what he is, he's gonna be around 5 RC/27, which both Kila and Butler have the potential to easily best, and also prevents Butler from at least trying to learn how to field.

I feel this only serves a purpose if Kila isn't ready yet, and if Butler is so hopeless defensively that even at the age of 22, we can declare him DH-Only 4 Life. Possible, but I don't like the odds of both being turue.

Don't you mean Big Baby Jesus?

No, no, no. You mean Dirt McGirt.

See, I think of "The Mystery of Chessboxin'" by Wu-Tang. "Introducing the karkface killah... no one can get iller."

Bingo. . . combined with the severe ugliness of a former White Sox catcher.

if Butler is so hopeless defensively that even at the age of 22, we can declare him DH-Only 4 Life

He is. And with only one really great year under his belt, and the financial benefits of keeping him down at the start of the season, it makes sense to let Kila start in AAA.

I think it's pretty clear that the Royals needed someone/anyone who could actually hit for power and drive in runners, rather than Jacobs being "special". The Royals had a chance to add a fairly valuable commodity (a cheap lefty slugger in his prime) that fit their needs (middle of the order power) at less than the expected market value (a nice middle reliever) and they seized it. It's a good deal for the Royals, unless Jacobs goes totally belly up to start the season and Nunez turns out to be Mariano Rivera. I don't really like the odds of both of those things happening.

I don't really like the odds of both of those things happening.

Meow!

I am happy about this trade. Today I was depressed about the season being over, and now thanks to the Royals and Marlins we have a trade thread nearly 50 posts long, based on something more than pure hot stove speculation. Well done.

Speaking of handles, everytime I read "karkface killah" the chorus of "Cat Scratch Fever" by Ted Nugent pops into my head.

I immediately think of Chairface Chippendale's minions.

Mike Jacobs is atrocious.
That is all.

If someone uses "Damon: Fighter of the Night Man" as a BBTF handle, then I will truly be impressed.

Wow, I hate my handle now. That is amazing, as is AG#1F's.

If someone uses "Damon: Fighter of the Night Man" as a BBTF handle, then I will truly be impressed.

Ok I took it. But you will live forever in my heart.

Oh an Kyle C., it should be Master of Friendship and Karate, at least according to the lyrics of Dayman.

Oh an Kyle C., it should be Master of Friendship and Karate, at least according to the lyrics of Dayman.

Nope:
Day Man

Aargh, you're right.

I feel this only serves a purpose if Kila isn't ready yet, and if Butler is so hopeless defensively that even at the age of 22, we can declare him DH-Only 4 Life.

Or if it opens the door to a bigger deal - which it might.

-- MWE

I'm actually thinking this might be a good deal for the Royals. Basically the Royals can use Jacobs as a filler for a year or so until Ka'aihue has some more time in AAA under his belt.

In the best case scenario they Royals can flip Jacobs to a contender at the deadline for some prospect. Like the Matt Stairs deal.

All they have given up is a reliever with some upside. Guys like that are a dime a dozen.

The Royals' OBP last year was .320, compared to a park-corrected league average of .332
The Royals' SLG last year was .415, compared to a park-corrected league average of .415

That puts the OBP+ at 96.3, and the SLG+ at 95.6. I read that as saying the Royals should be neutral or slightly OBP-seeking on offense.

1B/DH last year was primarily
Ross Gload, with neutralized OBP/SLG of .301/.333 in 411 plate appearances, and
Billy Butler, with neutralized OBP/SLG of .304/.373 in 476 plate appearances.

This trade brings in Mike Jacobs, with neutralized OBP/SLG of .311/.487 in 513 AB.

To me, that makes this a pretty nice trade. Jacobs is primarily replacing Gload, at a similar price per season, but brings 10 extra points of OBP and 150(!) extra points of SLG. That's not a bad return for a middle reliever (although I like Nunez).

All they have given up is a reliever with some upside. Guys like that are a dime a dozen.

Is there any chance to convert Nunez to starter or are the Marlins thinking of him as a Gregg replacement?

According to Fangraphs, Nunez has a fastball at ~93 mph, a slider at 83 and a change, also at 83. I recall him as being a two-pitch pitcher, so the slider and change are probably the same pitch categorized differently. You'll like him as a reliever, but I don't think he's ever been considered as a starter.

Looks like I'm wrong. The slider and change have very different breaks, according to Josh Kalk's Pitch f/x tool.

Is there any chance to convert Nunez to starter or are the Marlins thinking of him as a Gregg replacement?

Gregg replacement. Nunez has started, and has been effective at at times, but he has such a small build and has had injury problems, so scouts seem to think he would not withstand a 200 IP season.

Meow!

More like Meowth! That's right!

I'm impressed by Mike Jacobs. It has to take some serious talent/effort to manage to both slug over .500 AND have an on-base percentage under .300 for an entire season.

I'm impressed by Mike Jacobs. It has to take some serious talent/effort to manage to both slug over .500 AND have an on-base percentage under .300 for an entire season.

Stick him in Coors for a few years and he'd have few 35-45 HR 125 ribbie seasons- and some msm morons would regard him as being a real impact hitter.

I'm impressed by Mike Jacobs. It has to take some serious talent/effort to manage to both slug over .500 AND have an on-base percentage under .300 for an entire season.

Players with an OBA under .300, SLG over .500, since 1969, sorted by OPS+

1. Dave Kingman NYM 1976 .238/.286/.506 37 HR 86 RBI
2. Tony Armas BOS 1984 .268/.300/.531 43 HR 123 RBI
3. Cory Snyder CLE 1986 .272/.299/.500 24 HR 69 RBI
4. Tony Armas BOS 1985 .265/.298/.514 23 HR 64 RBI
5. Jesse Barfield TOR 1983 .253/.296/.510 27 HR 68 RBI
6. Mike Jacobs FLA 2008 .247/.299/.514 32 HR 93 RBI
7. Tony Clark DET .250/.299/.503 27 HR 72 RBI

Most comparable players to Mike Jacobs through age 27:

1. Fred Whitfield (947)
2. Rico Brogna (947)
3. Andre Thornton (946)
4. Don Mincher (942)
5. Adam LaRoche (939)
6. Josh Phelps (939)
7. Tino Martinez (939)
8. Kevin Mench (937)
9. Carlos Pena (935)
10. Craig Wilson (934)

Almost all of those guys had significantly higher OBP than Jacobs through age 27, though. He may not have any good comps.

And they had an almost unprecedented lack of walks this year. A .299 OBA helps how?

Actually, I think it is unprecedented in team history...for a full season of baseball.

1981 and 1994 appear to be the only other years in which KC drew fewer than 392 walks.

Royals are certainly not lacking for 1B who are below average, but better than replacement level. If they are trying to upgrade CF, use DeJesus in left and Guillen in right I guess that means MArk Teahen has to be part of the mix as well.

Player, with offensive projection (1B has a 10-12 run position penalty, DH 15-17)

Jacobs 8
Butler 7
Kaaihue 4
Teahen 1
Shealy 1

Kaaihue had a great 2008, but in 2007 hit 248/359/435 between A and AA, and hit .199 with no power in 2006. His projection reflects this, at 239/355/395.

Defense:
Butler -4
Jacobs -8
Teahen 2
Shealy 3

I'd much rather have one guy who was actually good than this mess.

He may not have any good comps.

B-R comps don't adjust for era and are based on raw stats -- sometimes they're OK, sometimes not or, probably most often, a mix. In this case, Whitfield and Brogna are good comps. LaRoche through Pena aren't that bad -- they're roughly league-average OBPs. Thornton especially and Mincher are awful comps; Wilson's not good either.

Man could Thornton hit. But you really can't blame the Cubs for choosing Pete LaCock over him. :-) At least the Cubs got more for him than the Expos did. The Cubs haven't developed a real power hitter since (and they deserve no credit as they got him from the Braves for the corpse of Joe Pepitone who played 3 games for Atlanta -- brilliant trade! -- who got him from the Phillies for 55 bad innings of pitching). Man, nobody got good value for Thornton.

Also, B-R comps are "career-to-date" comps so a player like Jacobs will generally only get compared to other late starters because most players will have had much more playing time through age 27. If you expanded it, you'd probably pick up someone like Kingman -- 229/296/482, OPS+ 117 through age 27 -- or Tony Armas (255/290/433, 103) who are at least comparable hitters (Armas had a ton more defensive value than Jacobs).

I forget if it was Baseball Mogul or OOTP but I remember having a player who would put up a line every year around 290/300/700 with about 80 HR and 160 RBI.

Mike Jacobs has to be thanking God and Jesus for getting out of Dolphin Stadium.

Look at the splits

At home

2008: .238/.273/.484, 14 HR in 267 PA
2007: .256/.308/.462, 10 HR in 253 PA
2006: .247/.299/.498, 12 HR in 244 PA

On the road

2008: .258/.325/.547, 18 HR in 252 PA
2007: .276/.329/.453, 7 HR in 207 PA
2006: .276/.348/.451, 8 HR in 276 PA

Kauffman Stadium is a very good hitters park for average and has a good hitters eye. Jacobs will put up a batting average over .270 overall, he will draw around 40 walks at minimum, he will hit over 30 home runs, and he will strike out over 100 times. Jacobs is an obvious win if Moore dumps Ross Gload.

Leo Nunez is expendable. Good relief pitchers are not hard to find. Ask Dayton about Horacio Ramirez.

Mike Jacobs is only really bad looking because he plays half his games in a sinkhole for offense. Kauffman Stadium is a good place to be for Jacobs. There won't be as much wind blowing inwards due to the completion of the renovations, leading to more power.

Mike Jacobs for Leo Nunez is the kind of steal that GMs need to make to make their team better. If Jacobs is as good as he can be, the Royals will be the Rays of 2009.

Ugh, Mike Jacobs will hit 30 HR as a full time 1b. He'll also be meh defensively and wretched in the rest of the offensive game. Trading anything of value for him, especially for a team like KC, would be a total waste.

My current lineup card

1) Aviles (SS)
2) Gordon (3B)
3) DeJesus (CF)
4) Jacobs (1B/DH)
5) Guillen (RF)
6) Butler (1B/DH)
7) Teahen (LF)
8) Callaspo (2B)
9) Buck (C)

If Jacobs is as good as he can be, the Royals will be the Rays of 2009.

I was going to say this is silly, but now I won't. I mean, the Royals clearly won't duplicate the Rays' success next year. They won't win 95+ games and they won't come in second in run prevention, and it's going to take more than a big year from Mike Jacobs. But the division is maybe winnable, or at least there's a not-impossible path to winning it. The Twins played over their heads this year. The White Sox' offense will have a lot of old guys and some young guys who aren't especially promising. Cleveland underperformed in 2008; maybe they'll do it again. The Tigers can't pitch.

So -- we'll start by ignoring the fact that the Royals outperformed their pythag last year. So they start with 75 wins. All you need to do is add 10-12 more, hope that you outplay your peripherals by a couple of games, and also hope that no one else wins 90. We'll say that Aviles is for real and repeats his performance. We'll say Jacobs flourishes in KC, to the tune of an OPS+ in the 120-125 range, with improved defense (because he's still learning the position after starting life as a catcher). That's, what, 4 extra wins right there? Then -- Gordon improves and Butler breaks out -- that's another 3 wins. Say mild improvements by Buck and Teahan and a patch in CF (or a resuscitated Guillen in RF) net you 2 more wins. Improvements by Hochevar and some other random starter give you another 3 wins, while Meche and Greinke hold steady (but you lose 1 when the bullpen regresses). So there it is, an 86-win team, which then plays a bit over its head and wins 89 to edge out the Indians on the last day of the season.

Then the team rides on magical ponies in the World Series parade.

Mike Jacobs is only really bad looking because he plays half his games in a sinkhole for offense.

It's not that he isn't a good hitter
1: He is a "good" hitter compared to everyone.
2: He's not a "good" hitter for a 1B or DH though

He hit for high averages in two full seasons in AA
Last year his BABIP plummeted- it could be random or could be the result of going all out to hit HR- I don't know.

FWIW his career road numbers are: .271/.337/.495

Based upon his career to date, his MLEs and assuming some of his 2008 BABIP decline was just randomness- outside of Florida I think he will hit .270 or so, and get his OBP up to .325 or so- bad but not putrid. He would be a pretty pointless pickup for KC even so.

Jacobs is one of the worst fielding 1B in baseball, has no OBP skills and doesn't have amazing power for a 1B. Last year he was one of the worst regular players in baseball. The Royals are such a strange organization.

I'm coming around on this deal. I don't think first base defense is all that important, and Jacobs road splits are pretty decent, as Brandon points out.

Bradford Doolittle: Mike Jacobs

I don't think first base defense is all that important...

Somewhere, Tony Muser just frowned.

I guess what it comes down to for me is if you want to improve the 2008 KC Royals, the biggest bang for your buck comes from replacing

Tony Pena: 5 OPS+, 225 AB
Ross Gload: 75 OPS+, 388 AB
John Buck: 75 OPS+, 370 AB


Of those three, Pena's already been replaced and Buck is a catcher. So if all it costs is a middle reliever, why not fix the hole?

Tony Pena: 5 OPS+, 225 AB
Ross Gload: 75 OPS+, 388 AB
John Buck: 75 OPS+, 370 AB

Tony Pena didn't actually have an OPS+ of 5, did he?

[Edit] Holy crap!!! 169/189/209 (OPS+ 7 according to B-ref)in 235 PA is unbelievable. He makes Andruw Jones look like he can hit. This brings to mind the question what is the worst OPS+ in baseball history for a guy with a significant number of at-bats. Another interesting thing about his batting line is that he was intentionally walked twice. What managerial genius did that?

Tony Pena: 5 OPS+, 225 AB

Pena has essentially be replaced by Aviles - absent a major injury, there's no way that Pena see's that much playing time again this season.

What managerial genius did that?

You want sad? It was the Blue Jays manager, subsequently hired as a coach by... the Royals.

This brings to mind the question what is the worst OPS+ in baseball history for a guy with a significant number of at-bats.

Poz wrote a good thing on this.

Another interesting thing about his batting line is that he was intentionally walked twice. What managerial genius did that?

Poz wrote a good thing on one of them.

I guess what it comes down to for me is if you want to improve the 2008 KC Royals, the biggest bang for your buck comes from replacing

Tony Pena: 5 OPS+, 225 AB
Ross Gload: 75 OPS+, 388 AB
John Buck: 75 OPS+, 370 AB

Jacobs is surely not a worse short-term option than Gload, but that's really changing the issue. The argument against acquiring him would be that Jacobs is a worse long-term option than Shealy/Kila/Butler, and that the latter two need to play in order to develop.

(That's why the best argument in favor of acquiring Jacobs would be to say that Kila isn't ready yet and Butler is incapable of playing 1B. I can see not worrying about Shealy, who is probably not really any better than Jacobs, and who could platoon with him anyway.)

Jacobs is surely not a worse short-term option than Gload, but that's really changing the issue.

How is it changing the issue? Improving the Royals is the objective, not a side goal.

There's a little bit of Allard Bairdism going on in this thread. That's where you not only expect every longshot to pan out, you don't want to do anything else either, because it would be redundant if the longshot ever did come through for you.

No, it's changing the issue because A) comparing Jacobs to a bad player (Gload) does not make Jacobs better -- he is what he is, B) the team is not contending in '09 (if you want to try to pull a Tampa Bay Rays next year, that would change the calculus, but I don't think it's either realistic or wise), and I think Kila and Butler can be expected to surpass Jacobs by '10. I would not describe them as "longshots" at all, although I don't think Kila is exactly a sure thing either. Still, he has the potential to be significantly better than Jacobs and you've got him already; I'd play him.

No, it's changing the issue because A) comparing Jacobs to a bad player (Gload) does not make Jacobs better -- he is what he is

And what he is, is better than Gload

B) the team is not contending in '09

And yet there's still value to the team in trying to win more games in '09 than in '08. Jacobs over Gload will help that.

and I think Kila and Butler can be expected to surpass Jacobs by '10.

In which case, they can trade or non-tender Jacobs after the '09 season. And if they don't surpass Jacobs, then the Royals still have Jacob until they find someone else.

I would not describe them as "longshots" at all, although I don't think Kila is exactly a sure thing either. Still, he has the potential to be significantly better than Jacobs and you've got him already; I'd play him.

And yet he's this was his first legitimately good season, and he's only got 33 games above AAA. Why not start him at AAA, and give him some time to prove that he's ready for the majors (and possibly delay the start of his service clock). If he shows he's ready, then he, Jacobs, and Butler can work out some sort of three man platoon between DH and 1B. It's not like the Royals are permanently tying themselves to playing Jacobs every game.

A) comparing Jacobs to a bad player (Gload) does not make Jacobs better -- he is what he is,

It doesn't make Jacobs better. It makes the Royals better, which is the goal after all.

Gload produced 3.58 RC/27 last year, making 282 outs. Jacobs produced 5.29 RC/27. Over 282 outs, the difference is 21 runs. Within reason, any move that has the potential to improve your team by 20 runs is a move you should be making.

Replacing terrible with mediocre is the best bargain there is in baseball, yet it draws constant criticism. Replacing Gload isn't something the Royals should wait to do until they're contenders, it's something they have to do to become contenders. That way, when the stars do arrive, you don't have to say what a shame it was that they played so well on a team with so many holes.

Look, you're presenting a world in which one has two choices: either make this trade, or get Ross Gload-level production out of 1B indefinitely. That doesn't make any sense. I am suggesting that it is in KC's interest, given that their team is 2-3 "years away", to develop two young players whose development would be best served at this point by playing them in the majors... Kila, who has the potential to be a much better OBP guy and defender than Jacobs, with not much if any less power... Butler, who has the potential to be a tremendous hitter, and whose value would be needlessly decreased if it turns out he can field adequately and yet you've got him at DH. That's my argument in one run-on sentence. Many things in that sentence are assumptions/opinions that can be disputed, but Ross Gload is not part of it.

(Trust me, if you try them and it turns out one or both of them blow, you are not gonna have any problem finding a 5 RC/27 1B/DH.)

BTW, here is the correct link to Poz's Tony Pena Jr. intentional walk article.

I'm not convinced that either Butler or Kaa'ihue belongs in the majors right now. Butler, as a DH/first baseman, managed all of .275/.324 /.400 last year. He was in rotten shape, and had little defensive value. Kaa'ihue certainly doesn't belong in the majors. In 2007 he got demoted from AA, for heaven's sake! He should start the year in AAA.

I am suggesting that it is in KC's interest, given that their team is 2-3 "years away", to develop two young players...

This is what got Allard Baird in trouble. Every quality player the Royals had was a long term project, whose potential assured them of a place on the roster regardless of performance.

Potential can kill a team. You end up with MacDougal, Bautista, Affeldt and Burgos in the same bullpen, with fastballs like Maseratis and ERAs like jetliners. I don't want to give playing time to players who won't make good use of it, be they Ross Gload or Billy Butler.

Although I don't follow the Royals closely, I'm inclined to agree with Zach here. Shealy, whose career I've followed for a couple of years now because I had him in a Diamond Mind league, looks like a AAAA player at best. He might fluke into a good year still, but a GM would be mad not to look for someone better. Butler may or may not be ready. Ka'aihue needs AAA time unless one wants to rush him, Mets style. So really, it's Butler-Shealy-Jacobs triangulating around two spots in the lineup. And Gload can be consigned to the bench as a backup outfielder, where he won't look so bad. Meanwhile, you've picked up a guy whose BABIP suggests he might be better than his 08 stats show. If he regresses to the league mean, you've made your team better at the plate. I'd be more worried that Jacobs' additions with the bat will be taken away by the glove.

Now, if Moore can find out a way to upgrade Guillen in RF, too, I'd say he's continuing to make incremental improvements. It's when the uptick stalls, a la Ricciardi in Toronto, that one should get concerned.