The hedge against losing Bay and not getting Holliday is here. I like the trade, pending any glowing reports about Alvarez. Jones is a LOOGY--big whoop, but Alvarez's numbers looked good in Lowell.

I don't like giving up on Hermida, but it's the Marlins. Whatareyougonnado.

Kinda interesting that the Marlins went from trading Hermida as part of any Manny trade to trading Hermida for two fringe prospects.

It's like Nick Swisher, without the ability to play baseball well.

It's like Nick Swisher, without the ability to play baseball well.

That's not far from the mark. Hermida's probably Swisher Lite.

I've never been a big Hermida fan - he's one of those guys whose minor league BB rate was deceiving because he just sat back and waited for pitchers to make a mistake in his zone, but he has never showed any ability to cover the entire plate and he has a tendancy to work himself into a hole by passing up hittable pitches early in counts. I suspect that Boston's hoping they have another Youkilis here, but I think they'll probably be disappointed.

-- MWE

he's one of those guys whose minor league BB rate was deceiving because he just sat back and waited for pitchers to make a mistake in his zone

I think people said that about Youkilis when he was in the minors (except for the "waiting for a mistake" part). There was talk that he was too passive and wouldn't make it in the majors. That said, the track record on Wily Mo Pena, Carlos Pena and Choi make me think that the Sox aren't very good at fixing underachievers.

I continue to think Hermida is better than he actually is, but this is still a deal the Mets should have made. I know nothing about those prospects, so I can't say for sure the Mets could have put together a better package, but then again, I know nothing about those prospects, so I have to believe the Mets could have put together a better package.

But the Mets already have Jeff Francoeur.

I think people said that about Youkilis when he was in the minors (except for the "waiting for a mistake" part).

I know I said that about Youkilis, but that was based on only a couple of observations. I've also said it about Andy LaRoche, who I saw probably 10-15 times in the minors. In Hermida's case, that observation was based on a full season of AA home games (I saw him about 50-60 times that year).

Hermida's one good season - actually, a good half-season, since he was producing at more or less a normal rate for him until July - coincided with a stretch where he was aggressive early in the count. He's been hurt a lot since then and has slipped back into the old habits, from what I've seen. I will say that I've never seen someone with his ability to draw a walk take so many bas swings at good pitches in my life.

-- MWE

But the Mets already have Jeff Francoeur.

who is the anti-Hermida.

-- MWE

Clearly all some team needs to do is acquire both and hire Dr. Mephisto

Still, I can't see how the Marlins can keep any sustained success going if every player in their system only has a 3 year window to help the Marlins before he's traded.

Still, I can't see how the Marlins can keep any sustained success going if every player in their system only has a 3 year window to help the Marlins before he's traded.

Their plan, inspired by nuclear physics:
If they can turn every arb player into two new players the will soon have a self sustaining chain reaction on their hands and can select their MLB squad from a pool of ~10^20 minor league players, which will include billions and billions of Bonds-class talents.

That said, the track record on Wily Mo Pena, Carlos Pena and Choi make me think that the Sox aren't very good at fixing underachievers.

They only had Carlos Pena for a little over a month so he's probably not very indicative.

I already told you guys. Mets are taking 2010 off. No worries.

He bats left, so he can't be Drew's caddy-they really don't think he can play LF in Fenway Park and be anything close to what a LFer needs to hit there, do they?

And can't the two threads be merged or something?

Actually, the weirdest aspect in Hermida's splits is located in his first at-bat of the game. He just can't hit at all then: .208/.281/.333/.614. After that, he's OK: .283/.358/.463/.821. That pattern is persistent in all of his seasons, even in 2007. I don't think I've ever seen anything like that before.

Oh, sure, it was the Red Sox' fault that Wily Mo and Hee Sop Choi suck so bad. Yeah, sure. Because other teams have had such great success fixing them.

UZR isn't fond of Hermida's defense and his offense has been pretty lousy the past 2 years. This is.... blah.

I think people said that about Youkilis when he was in the minors (except for the "waiting for a mistake" part). There was talk that he was too passive and wouldn't make it in the majors.

Youkilis has shown he can hit in the majors and Hermida has shown he can not hit in the majors, I don't see your point.

who is the anti-Hermida.

He is the bizarro world Hermida in so many ways.
Both were disappointing RF prospects on NL East teams. One never learned to swing, the other never learned not to swing.
Both were first round picks the same year out of suburban HS north of Atlanta. Hermida was picked higher, Francouer got a slightly larger bonus. Weirdest thing was that both were Clemson commitments.
The thought of a Hermida/Francoer platoon blows my mind.

How would a Hermida/Francouer platoon work? Have Hermida watch the first 2 pitches then put in Francouer?

Actually, the weirdest aspect in Hermida's splits is located in his first at-bat of the game. He just can't hit at all then: .208/.281/.333/.614. After that, he's OK: .283/.358/.463/.821. That pattern is persistent in all of his seasons, even in 2007. I don't think I've ever seen anything like that before.

So the solution is to never let him have that first at-bat.

Standard Theo era Red Sox move - depth with a decent OBP.

He's a butcher in the field, can't hit the lefties at all. Worth a shot though, still young.

Both were first round picks the same year out of suburban HS north of Atlanta.

Opposite sides of town, though. That makes all the difference.

I like this move, at worst I would think he's a step up from baldelli and at best he becomes a real find.

I think at worst is worse than that. But he is still young.

I like this move, at worst I would think he's a step up from baldelli

Though it his hard to compare Baldelli's offensive output to anyone since he has never been healthy, Baldelli has the same career OPS+, is only 2 years older and can play CF.

I might take Baldelli over Hermida on my team in a straight up trade if $ wasn't an issue. Baldelli's health would be my holdup but since the Sawx are looking at reserves here anyway, health is less of an issue

I think at worst is worse than that. But he is still young.

Worst case he's Jeremy Giambi. Best case he's David Ortiz. I'd settle for a lefty Kevin Millar.

Wily Mo sounds like a more likely worst case. And best case is somewhere far far short of David Ortiz. Millar's probably a good one.

How would a Hermida/Francouer platoon work? Have Hermida watch the first 2 pitches then put in Francouer?

Primey!

Mutatis mutandis, Hermida == Wily Mo.

Their respective potentials are differently shaped, but the ultimate point is the same - both could be all-stars in a corner OF position, and the Red Sox are giving them a part-time job in the hopes that they develop. These sorts of moves have not worked out well for Theo's Red Sox. Hopefully this one does.

As a fan, this is the type of deal I love most. When you sign a star for star money, and he performs like a star, it's not as satisfying as finding an underachiever and seeing him put it all together. Obviously, the odds are stacked against Hermida becoming a regular for this team, much less a star, but when a move like this works out, it's as sweet as it gets.

Casey Kotchman, and Jeremy Hermida. Who's next, Daniel Murphy?

Casey Kotchman, and Jeremy Hermida. Who's next, Daniel Murphy?

Have Kotchman and Hermida ever been 0.875 OPS hitters?

I know nothing about those prospects, so I have to believe the Mets could have put together a better package.

I saw a link to a Red Sox prospect blog that ranked those two as the 44th and 45th best prospects in the system, so any team could have topped this. Looks like the Red Sox are the only team that thinks he's worth the 4 million or so that he'll get in arbitration. Curious move. As a backup outfielder (and a lefty) it doesn't make sense to use him when Drew or Ellsbury need a rest. Only way he's a bargain is if he gets at least a platoon share of LF.

But what he doesn't cost in payroll he costs in a roster spot. Intentionally downgrading from Bay to Hermida doesn't seem like the kind of move a big market team intending to compete for a championship does.

Have Kotchman and Hermida ever been 0.875 OPS hitters?

No, but not too far off, .840 for Kotchman and .870 for Hermida. Which is better than anything Murphy's ever done in more than 131 AB.

Which is better than anything Murphy's ever done

That's crazy talk.

Intentionally downgrading from Bay to Hermida doesn't seem like the kind of move a big market team intending to compete for a championship does.

I think more it's likely he takes Baldelli's or Kotchman's spot (if they think Hermida can learn to play first a little.)

Kotchman's another guy who makes little sense unless you actually plan on playing him. He'll probably also get 4 mil or so unless he's non-tendered, and that seems way too much to pay for an insurance policy/ twice a week starter/ pinch hitter for the shortstop.

And it's a waste of Kotchman, who may still turn into a decent player on a team that plays him, but has zero chance of earning a job over Kevin Youkilis.

I wonder if this is the kind of move that gives the Red Sox the flexibility to make some other kind of move over the winter if they wind up dumping Lowell or Kotchman. In isolation, though, Hermida's not a great 4th OF choice. He can't really play CF, and he's a lefty. I guess he didn't really cost them anything other than money, so what the hell, I guess.

I wonder if this is the kind of move that gives the Red Sox the flexibility to make some other kind of move over the winter if they wind up dumping Lowell or Kotchman. In isolation, though, Hermida's not a great 4th OF choice. He can't really play CF, and he's a lefty. I guess he didn't really cost them anything other than money, so what the hell, I guess.

Yeah, I think it's too early to parse these moves too closely. We don't know what these teams are trying to do at a more macro level. I think the Sawx want Adrian Gonzalez really, really badly (not that I can figure how Hermida fits into helping them achieve that).

Yeah, I think it's too early to parse these moves too closely. We don't know what these teams are trying to do at a more macro level. I think the Sawx want Adrian Gonzalez really, really badly (not that I can figure how Hermida fits into helping them achieve that).

I think he gives them the flexibility of being potentially a decent starting left fielder. Figure with a Fenway boost he gets back to an .800 OPS, that is OK. The Sox can now go after Gonzalez without still having a gaping hole in left field. If the get Gonzalez (or Fielder, or some other not yet mentioned trade candidate) they now have a reasonable starting left fielder. Obviously Hermida would be on the lower end of that position but Hermida/Gonzalez/Youkilis at LF/1B/3B is certainly OK while Reddick or Baldelli/Gonzalez/Youkilis probably would not be (given Baldelli's inability to play every day).

I'm not sure the Sox are so hot after Gonzalez. They were reportedly going to move him along to Seattle for King Felix at the deadline. I'd think they're reasonably happy with their unique 1b/3b/c/dh platoon dealie. I'd think they would be focused on another good starter and a reliably good starting SS.

a reliably good starting SS.

Take Stephen Drew, please!
Isn't Lowrie penned as the shortstop next year?
Also, JJ Hardy should be in Boston already.

What are the chances the guy develops while getting 150-200 ABs a year?