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Tuesday, December 08, 2009

MLB: Mets: Jerry Manuel’s Q and A

Amazingly, Jerry Manuel makes it through this extensive interview without being fired even once.

Q. Given that you need to sign a No. 1 catcher, probably a starting pitcher, a left fielder, does it stand to reason that Murphy is probably the first baseman? And given other teams get a lot of power out of first base, is that concerning because you have to off set somewhere else?

JERRY MANUEL: Well, that’s the thing for us, is how do we get all of these pieces to fit. So with a guy like Daniel Murphy, we know that we don’t come in expecting or anticipating, because of the history has showed that he does not have that kind of power.

But what he did show is good defense, and it’s the first time him playing over there. He hit a number of doubles and extra base hits. He showed that he can make the adjustments.

But you’re right. We are going to have to supplement that throughout the lineup at some point, someplace, to have at least a threat of consistent power in other spots. And hopefully David, even Jose, Carlos Beltran, Francoeur, the left field could possibly have places where we could implement and get a little bit more power.

Q. A long ways to April, but based on the other holes you need to fill, does it stand to reason that he is most likely the first baseman?

JERRY MANUEL: Well, at this point, I would have to say yeah. We can leave in five minutes and that can change, but right now he’s the first baseman and look to improve him defensively. Thought he did a good job in that area. He showed that he can make some adjustments.

I think the latter part of the year you saw some of the power, some of the doubles that he hit. So right now, I’m looking for him to progress to the next level, but not possibly be in the category with Pujols, Derrek Lee, and these types of guys, but get that from other parts of the team.

Repoz Posted: December 08, 2009 at 11:33 PM | 26 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralNY Mets

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   1. Lassus  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 12:54 AM (#3407625)
Q. Given that you need to sign a No. 1 catcher, probably a starting pitcher, a left fielder, does it stand to reason that Murphy is probably the first baseman? And given other teams get a lot of power out of first base, is that concerning because you have to off set somewhere else?

Why do people bother asking questions like this? It's a conclusion already. What's the point?
   2. bobm  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 01:07 AM (#3407630)
"does it stand to reason that Murphy is probably the first baseman? And given other teams get a lot of power out of first base, is that concerning because you have to off set somewhere else?"

Why do people bother asking questions like this? It's a conclusion already. What's the point?


I think it's worse when people DON'T ask questions like this. Many Mets fans still don't understand what an offensive black hole at 1B Murphy is.

2009, minimum 100 G at 1B

Rk Player 2009 OPS+
 1 Albert Pujols    188
 2 Prince Fielder   168
 3 Adrian Gonzalez  166
 4 Joey Votto       155
 5 Mark Teixeira    149
6 Derrek Lee       145
 7 Miguel Cabrera   142
 8 Ryan Howard      140
 9 Lance Berkman    139
10 Kendry Morales   137
11 Todd Helton      130
12 Carlos Pena      130
13 Justin Morneau   129
14 Russell Branyan  128
15 Billy Butler     124
16 Nick Johnson     122
17 Lyle Overbay     122
18 Adam LaRoche     122
19 Paul Konerko     115
20 Jorge Cantu      105
21 James Loney      104
22 Daniel Murphy     95
23 Casey Kotchman    90
24 Travis Ishikawa   86
25 Chris Davis       85
   3. bobm  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 01:20 AM (#3407635)
More fun with BB-ref play index: Murphy's 2009 was 27th of 33 offensive seasons by OPS+ for Mets playing 100 games at 1B.

Playing for the NYM, For single seasons, From <s>1901</s>1962 to 2009, Played 100 games at 1B, sorted by greatest Adjusted OPS+

Rk Player         OPS+ Year Age
 1 John Olerud     163 1998 29
 2 Keith Hernandez 143 1984 30
 3 Dave Magadan    141 1990 27
 4 Keith Hernandez 140 1986 32
 5 John Olerud     135 1997 28
 6 Carlos Delgado  131 2006 34
 7 Keith Hernandez 129 1985 31
 8 Donn Clendenon  129 1970 34
 9 John Olerud     128 1999 30
10 Carlos Delgado  127 2008 36
11 Ed Kranepool    124 1971 26
12 Keith Hernandez 120 1987 33
13 Rico Brogna     119 1995 25
14 Eddie Murray    115 1992 36
15 Mo Vaughn       113 2002 34
16 Eddie Murray    111 1993 37
17 Todd Zeile      110 2000 34
18 Ed Kranepool    110 1972 27
19 John Milner     109 1974 24
20 Dave Magadan    106 1991 28
21 Carlos Delgado  102 2007 35
22 Willie Montanez 102 1978 30
23 Ed Kranepool    100 1967 22
24 Ed Kranepool    100 1966 21
25 Ed Kranepool    100 1964 19
26 Dave Kingman     99 1982 33
27 Daniel Murphy    95 2009 24
28 Todd Zeile       94 2001 35
29 Ed Kranepool     93 1965 20
30 Ed Kranepool     87 1969 24
31 Tim Harkness     81 1963 25
32 Ed Kranepool     70 1968 23
33 Willie Montanez  65 1979 31
   4. The District Attorney  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 01:21 AM (#3407636)
Yeah, but I think the point is more, what exactly is Manuel supposed to say in response, when Murphy would have to start if the season began right now, but the Mets still have five months to find a replacement? Of course he's essentially going to say "I'll play the best hand I'm dealt and we'll see what happens." In that sense, it pretty much is a pointless question.
   5. Russlan thinks Jose Reyes pops up too much  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 01:23 AM (#3407637)
Murphy had such a weird season if you go by monthly splits:

April .324/.373/.426
May .176/.278/.353
June .240/.298/.340
July .250/.323/.393
Aug .292/.308/.434
Sept .290/.308/.580

He basically was every type of hitter you can be. Hacker with good power, hacker with mediocre power, generally crappy, OBP machine with no power...all in the same season.

Personally, I wouldn't hate giving Murphy some time in the minors to learn an outfield spot or become passable at 2b so he can be a super-utility guy that can back up 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and LF. You can get 400 AB like that and a 100 OPS+ from a guy like that isn't horrible.
   6. bobm  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 01:33 AM (#3407644)
[4] If just asking the question gets some more fans to recognize Murphy for what he is, then it's not bad to ask, even if Manuel has to give the company line. That said, I can live with Murphy at 1B in order to fill other holes under a constrained budget.

Best 2009 quote from Manuel:
Manuel poked fun at the team's beleaguered medical staff when asked about Gary Sheffield's status after Sheffield left the game in the fifth inning with a cramp in his right hamstring. "They're calling it cramps . . . surgery on Thursday," Manuel said before erupting in laughter. Realizing that team-owned SNY was filming the remark, Manuel quickly added: "I couldn't resist. Sorry, doctors." Manuel then pleaded twice -- apparently without success -- with the network's in-house reporter, Kevin Burkhardt, not to run the footage. Manuel was making light of the Mets' habit, particularly this season, of minimizing injuries that turn out to be much more...
   7. depletion  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 01:37 AM (#3407646)
His career OPS+ is 109. This is based on a larger sample than 2009 alone. It's still subpar for 1st base, but not quite as bad as bobm portrays it.
I bet Delgado will want a two year deal. If they can get him at the right price, and without a no-trade, it might be a way to see if Murphy can improve while being a back up. Given Delgado's age, there should be a lot of innings for the backup 1st baseman: day game after a night game, post rain delay, blowouts, late inning defensive sub. Murphy failed at 2nd base in Az Fall league. It seems he is a 1st/3rd at this point. Even if he's not a long term solution, it would be beneficial to see if he can build his value back up before trading him.
   8. bobm  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 01:46 AM (#3407649)
[5]: Some of Murphy's poor hitting in May was likely connected to his fielding struggles in LF.

Murphy games by defensive position and month, 2009:
Apr LF: 16 PH:4
May 1B: 7 LF: 11 PH:8
Jun 1B:18 PH:6   PH/1B:1
Jul 1B:22 PH:3   PH/1B:1
Aug 1B:28     PH:1
Sep 1B:22     PH:4
Oct 1B: 2    PH:1
   9. bobm  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 01:52 AM (#3407657)
[7]: from bb-ref

Year PA OPS+
2008 151 129
2009 556  95
TOT  707 103
   10. Lassus  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 01:53 AM (#3407660)
[4] If just asking the question gets some more fans to recognize Murphy for what he is, then it's not bad to ask

Oh give me a freaking break. If you know any fans who somehow don't know that Murphy was far below league-average for a first baseman, I can't imagine who you're talking to.
   11. bobm  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 01:59 AM (#3407662)
[10] Did you not see all the fans at Citi Field wearing the Murphy shirts?
   12. depletion  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 02:02 AM (#3407663)
Yup, it's 103, bobm, not 109.
   13. Imeat  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 02:09 AM (#3407667)
If i was a mets fan i woudnt worry too much, 1st base seems like a pretty easy position to aquire during the season.
   14. Lassus  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 02:22 AM (#3407677)
[10] Did you not see all the fans at Citi Field wearing the Murphy shirts?

Er, actually, no. And god freaking forbid the kid should have a few fans.
   15. The District Attorney  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 02:25 AM (#3407678)
The fans' opinion of Murphy is not going to affect how the team proceeds, so don't worry about it. That is, unless you think Murphy is so beloved that the Mets won't replace him because they fear angering his immense fanbase. I doubt you think that.
   16. Russlan thinks Jose Reyes pops up too much  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 02:31 AM (#3407681)
You know, that list actually makes me think that keeping Murphy at first base as the starter would not be that horrible of a decision. Overbay was a two WAR player and Murphy could match that with a mild improvement as long as he is an average or slightly better than average first baseman defensively. Keep him and use that money elsewhere.
   17. bobm  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 02:35 AM (#3407684)
[15] I don't think the fans' opinion of Murphy (or much else) is going to change what the Mets do. I do hope he improves, but I am baffled by the denial on the part of many fans and bloggers about Murphy.

[16] I agree: keep Murphy for 2010, use the money elsewhere, and don't block Davis if you believe in him.
   18. PreservedFish  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 02:43 AM (#3407687)
but I am baffled by the denial on the part of many fans and bloggers about Murphy.


Where are you running across these opinions? Sure isn't this site.
   19. bobm  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 03:02 AM (#3407693)
[18] No, not here. I find there's very little denial (except about PEDs) on BBTF; I'm quite impressed with the level of fact-based, generally respectful discourse.

On Murphy, elsewhere:

http://www.dailystache.net/archives/5097

http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/27/the-myth-of-power/

http://www.metstoday.com/3992/2009-mets-evaluations/2009-analysis-daniel-murphy/
   20. Walt Davis  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 03:38 AM (#3407706)
Folks seem to be missing what I thought was the big news in the excerpt ...

Angel Pagan has been disappeared.

Manuel just about accepts the notion an LF will be signed and Murphy will probably be the 1B. There's not even an obligatory "you know we like Pagan and Murphy and when you add Tatis we think that gives us a lot of coverage at the corners when we need it" sort of line.
   21. Russlan thinks Jose Reyes pops up too much  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 03:42 AM (#3407708)
Tatis is a FA.
   22. The District Attorney  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 04:30 AM (#3407719)
I don't think so, Walt. I think he's saying that, if Murphy is the 1B, then whatever LF is acquired will have to pick up the power-hitting slack. I don't think he means to imply that that is what will necessarily happen, that they'll get a LF and not a 1B. I don't think he knows that. The question essentially asked him to assume that Murphy was the 1B, so he went along with that.

I suppose he is effectively saying that there's no way they could simultaneously start both Pagan and Murphy, but hopefully that was obvious...
   23. PreservedFish  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 04:42 AM (#3407720)
Folks seem to be missing what I thought was the big news in the excerpt ...

Angel Pagan has been disappeared.


Doesn't seem like big news to me. I think it has only been the fanboyiest Mets fans here that have lobbied for Pagan as a starter.

He is frequently mentioned in the manner of: "[overpriced veteran X] sucks, might as well just let Pagan play for a tenth the price."
   24. Walt Davis  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 05:31 AM (#3407725)
He is frequently mentioned in the manner of: "[overpriced veteran X] sucks, might as well just let Pagan play for a tenth the price."

But that's all you can say about Murphy too.
   25. bobm  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 08:14 AM (#3407740)
I think Pagan ends up as the starting LF and the Mets allocate their FA $ elsewhere. Also from TFA:

"Q. Last year the young players got a chance to show themselves. Who do you think will make a major contribution this year?

JERRY MANUEL: I think Angel Pagan stepped up. He had some mistakes that he made on the bases and those types of things, but for the most part, I thought, given the opportunity that he got, he played very good defense, hit very well, hit over .300, had a number of triples in our ballpark. I thought he really stepped up. I thought Santos showed very well. I even think Josh Thole, even at the end of the year, played extremely well. And the acquisition of Francoeur in our ballpark got a chance to look at him on an every day basis, and I thought he played well."
   26. AJM  Posted: December 09, 2009 at 08:53 AM (#3407748)
"[overpriced veteran X] sucks, might as well just let Pagan play for a tenth the price."

X = Frenchy
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