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Wednesday, November 15, 2006

MLB: Mets: Swap Bell, Ring to Padres for prospect and reliever

Whoa...Lotta rings being broken up today in New York!

Mets general manager Omar Minaya continued to add to the team’s roster for 2007 on Wednesday, acquiring outfielder Ben Johnson and right-handed reliever Jon Adkins from the San Diego Padres.

The Mets dealt relievers Heath Bell and Royce Ring to the Padres in exchange for the two players, who could be complementary pieces in the club’s makeup.

Minaya said the deal was one explored in various phases leading into the July 31 trading deadline this year, before both clubs agreed to revisit negotiations at the General Managers Meetings, which are being held this week in Naples, Fla.

“It may not be a sexy trade,” Minaya said in Florida. “You have to remember, the little ones are what count sometimes. Those are the ones.”

Repoz Posted: November 15, 2006 at 05:44 PM | 123 comment(s)
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   1. PH  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 05:57 PM (#2238987)
They traded FOR Downtown Jonny?

Have fun with that one.
   2. Vaux, A.B.D.  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 06:15 PM (#2239002)
The Mets made a trade and there's only one post?
   3. Russlan wants Pedro to be a Met again  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 06:18 PM (#2239009)
Does anyone know if Johnson is good defensively?
   4. Шĥy  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 06:22 PM (#2239016)
From Baseball America:

“Johnson has all the tools to be an everyday outfielder in the big leagues. He has shortened his swing and developed above-average power while improving his grasp of the strike zone. Once a plus-plus runner, he’s now just a tick above-average. He’s a good right fielder with a solid arm.”
   5. Juan V has had a good baseball year  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 06:22 PM (#2239017)
Does anyone know if Johnson is good defensively?


Well, he can run pretty fast, so a least he should have the range :)
   6. G A Delgado  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 06:23 PM (#2239018)
Not a gold glover by any means, but he can play all 3 OF positions pretty good, a pretty good arm...that's all I got.
   7. JPWF13  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 06:24 PM (#2239019)
he Mets made a trade and there's only one post?

which is one more than this trade merits
there used to be a small but vocal free Heath Bell contingent among mets fans- but they've pretty much given up on him
   8. Russlan wants Pedro to be a Met again  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 06:34 PM (#2239027)
Remember when Heath Bell was going to save the Met bullpen?

Bell has excellent velocity and good control of his fastball but little else. I think he's 4A but his peripherals are nice and his minor league track record is fantastic.

Ring dominated leftieS in AAA last year but he's never going to be anything but a LOOGY.

Fearless prediction:

Alou/Beltran/Green outfield to start the season with Milledge waiting in AAA. Johnson and Endy serve as Alou's and Green's legs and get a few starts here and there.
   9. BTF's left-wing cheering section (formerly_dp)  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 06:42 PM (#2239037)
Alou/Beltran/Green outfield to start the season with Milledge waiting in AAA. Johnson and Endy serve as Alou's and Green's legs and get a few starts here and there.

That would suck. I want to start the season with Green as nothing more than a PH.

This could be a nice deal for the Pads- 1/3 of a bullpen on the cheap. Ring should make a fine LOOGY and Bell is one of those guys who'll put up a sick season and get overpaid for it at some point...
   10. Benji  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 06:48 PM (#2239044)
I like it. Adkins is at least a passable middle inning guy, and Johnson could really be something if he harnesses his talents. Ring will be around forever but will never really haunt us, and as for Heath Bell....well if you can't say anything nice about a person.......
   11. Russlan wants Pedro to be a Met again  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 06:50 PM (#2239047)
Don't worry. I'm never right.
   12. Al Kaline Trio  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 06:53 PM (#2239049)
Ben Johnson is really fast no? He won teh gold medal but had it taken away for 'roids if I remember correctly.
   13. The Spanish Inquisition  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 07:13 PM (#2239065)
1. Royce Ring was in Moneyball.
2. Royce Ring is a "closer" kind of name.
3. Look at those stats!
4. Ben Johnson is a less fortunate name to carry, as #12 pointed out.

Bad trade for the Mets.
   14. greenback  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 07:29 PM (#2239072)
“You have to remember, the little ones are what count sometimes. Those are the ones.”

Yeah, Ben Johnson's first trade was small, but memorable. It netted the Cardinals a catcher with a bad back, which may or may not have helped ruin Rick Ankiel. At least Jocketty didn't give the Padres the prospect they requested first.
   15. jwb  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 07:54 PM (#2239083)
Every time somebody mentions Pujols, I have to think

Similar Batters through Age 26
Jimmie Foxx (893) *
Frank Robinson (891) *
Joe DiMaggio (891) *
Ken Griffey (864)
Vladimir Guerrero (862)
Hal Trosky (861)
Hank Aaron (859) *
Mickey Mantle (858) *
Orlando Cepeda (853) *
Lou Gehrig (842) *

isn't this a cool club to be a member of?
   16. spycake  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 08:01 PM (#2239087)
Bell and Ring both appear to have more potential than Adkins has arguably ever had, and more than Johnson too (outside of the PCL anyway).

Whether they materialize is another thing, but I can certainly see them being effective arms in SD's pen.
   17. Rob Base  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 08:02 PM (#2239089)
Did Trosky get f'ed up in WW2?
   18. greenback  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 08:08 PM (#2239091)
No, Wikipedia covers the Trosky story well enough. He had nasty, nasty headaches before the war started. He was 4F too.
   19. 1k5v3L, Useless  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 08:37 PM (#2239103)
Why bother with a couple of young cheap arms when you'll have El Duque as the mop-up man in the bullpen over the next couple of years? Plus, this frees up a roster spot for Jose Lima.
   20. Rob Base  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 09:26 PM (#2239135)
Byrnes have Kevin Jarvis resigned yet?
   21. 1k5v3L, Useless  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 09:43 PM (#2239148)
Alou/Beltran/Green outfield to start the season with Milledge waiting in AAA. Johnson and Endy serve as Alou's and Green's legs and get a few starts here and there.


The alternative is Valentin/Johnson platoon in LF. With a random 2Bman (say, Loretta) on board.
   22. Rob Base  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 09:48 PM (#2239149)

The alternative is Valentin/Johnson platoon in LF. With a random 2Bman (say, Loretta) on board.


Omar's about as likely to go for that as, say, you are to kiss a girl some time this century.
   23. Raskolnikov  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 10:02 PM (#2239156)
I don't like the trade - but it doesn't hurt that much.

I don't see how Adkins has anything to contribute.

Johnson looks like a 5th OFer, useful but I bet Omar could've found similar quality by sifting through the non-roster invites or waiver wire carefully. I guess there's some value.

Ring would have been a fair exchange for Johnson. Useful 10th or 11th guy out of the bullpen. Lefty. So Ring had some value.

I don't like giving up on Bell. Why not give him one more shot this year? If the bullpen gets depleted due to injury or ineffectiveness, Bell is the perfect guy to have around in Norfolk to sub in. Probably would have been gone as soon as our exclusive rights to him run out.

So in net, we lose about a year of Bell relief. Not too much, but won't hurt too much. We'll have to hope that Sanchez and Padilla are healthy and effective this year.
   24. studes  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 10:11 PM (#2239165)
I'm assuming that options were an issue here, no? Were Bell and Ring out of options, and do Johnson and Adkins have some left?
   25. J. Cross  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 10:27 PM (#2239175)
Johnson and Endy serve as Alou's and Green's legs and get a few starts here and there.

What your describing sounds more like a 5th grade talent show than a major league outfield.
   26. PreservedFish  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 10:36 PM (#2239180)
Why bother with a couple of young cheap arms when you'll have El Duque as the mop-up man in the bullpen over the next couple of years? Plus, this frees up a roster spot for Jose Lima.

At what point does levski reach troll status and get banned or officially censured or something? I know that every single thread about the Mets is going to have at least one snarky comment from him and it is beginning to have an impact on how much I enjoy visiting BTF. And the fact that this is going to make him smile just underlines the trolliness of his actions. It is really distasteful.
   27. Rob Base  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 10:41 PM (#2239183)
41. Knight Who Says Nye Mets (iksvel) Posted: November 15, 2006 at 08:53 PM (#2239112)
From: "What's playing on Omar's I-pod today?":

Me gusta tocar El Duque, me gusta tocar Jose
Los mariachi me acompañan cuando canto mi canción
   28. HowardMegdal  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 10:47 PM (#2239188)
"At what point does levski reach troll status and get banned or officially censured or something?"

Why don't you just not read his posts? I don't get it. A lot of what is posted on here is crap. But there's also a lot of good information. So if you know you don't enjoy someone, why read them? Why does censoring them come into play?
   29. pyrite  Posted: November 15, 2006 at 11:39 PM (#2239201)
Why don't you just not read his posts? I don't get it. A lot of what is posted on here is crap. But there's also a lot of good information. So if you know you don't enjoy someone, why read them? Why does censoring them come into play?

I've seen other sites that where you can choose to not see posts by a certain user and they're automatically filtered out. With higher traffic sites (digg, slashdot, etc.) you can do that at the individual comment level, but here it may better done at the user level. I think Primer should consider adding that pretty soon.
   30. 1k5v3L, Useless  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 12:12 AM (#2239213)
it is beginning to have an impact on how much I enjoy visiting BTF.


that's a shame.
   31. J. Cross  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 12:16 AM (#2239216)
I suppose I'd still like to be able to hear what Levski says about DBacks prospects. Maybe we could filter out comments of his that include the words "Omar" or "mariachi." These things seem to bring out the worst in him.
   32. Justin T  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 12:27 AM (#2239227)
I read the comments first, not the names of the posters. Only if a comment is interesting do I look to see who authored it. Levski really is a pathetic individual, and he is a detriment to the site. And I don't even like the Mets.
   33. Raskolnikov  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 12:29 AM (#2239228)
I don't know where to put this comment so I might as well put it here.

I'm betting that Gourriel is hearing about how much money a FA makes in the US, esp. with this D-Mat auction, and he defects within the next year.

And I guarantee that the Mets will be in the front of the line on the bidding for him next offseason.
   34. 1k5v3L, Useless  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 12:43 AM (#2239236)
JCross, I don't mind putting the time to analyze one of Omar's fn-A moves, when he makes them. If he were to go out and acquire Dontrelle Willis, for example, I'd love to ponder the implications, and congratulate him on having a long term vision.

But when he makes a trade that really doesn't make that much sense to the Mets, what should one write? Bell and Ring were supposedly superfluous, and out of options, but they certainly have value, which is of course why the Padres acquired them. Adkins really has no value. Johnson, while useful in some ways, is really not someone you make the centerpiece of a trade. I'd rather see Omar use Bell and Ring to package them in a trade for someone better and more useful.

While this trade won't kill the Mets, it likely won't help them much either. So why make it? And if you do make it, what kind of a response do you expect aside from an occasional smart a$$ post on primer? And this trade actually wasn't one of Omar's bad moves of the week; giving El Duque 2 guaranteed years and $12m was just stupid. Omar needs to use the Mets financial clout to put a team on the field that will dominate for the next 4-5 years; giving a rotation spot to El Duque for the next two years will likely hurt the Mets a lot more than help them. Omar should've just saved the money and used it to sign someone younger and better.
   35. Шĥy  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 12:47 AM (#2239238)
I'm betting that Gourriel is hearing about how much money a FA makes in the US, esp. with this D-Mat auction, and he defects within the next year.

I don't think so. He's always known that millions were available. He loves Cuba, communism, and his father is the manager of his team.
   36. 1k5v3L, Useless  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 12:48 AM (#2239240)
Levski really is a pathetic individual, and he is a detriment to the site.


you stay classy, al.
   37. battlekow  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 01:02 AM (#2239249)
Me gusta tocar El Duque, me gusta tocar Jose
Los mariachi me acompañan cuando canto mi canción


Levanta, levanta, tienes que gritar
Levanta, levanta, tienes que bailar
   38. J. Cross  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 01:10 AM (#2239255)
okay, levski, I'll admit, I don't really disagree with your analysis of any of this week's moves. I suppose I'd argue that Ring and Bell have little value so Ben Johnson (if he is really a plus defender) is fair value for them. But, $16M over 2 years for El Duque and Valentin does strike me as pretty bad. Paying these guys $8M for this year would be fine. $6M only gets you an El Duque in the rotation these days and Valentin with a platoon partner gives you plus defense. The problem is that the $8M in 2008 is money down the drain (or worse because they stick on the team in place of better youngsters) and moving Valentin to the OF would be worst of all... especially if Green is still out there.

I think it's the knee-jerk rips on all things Mets and Minaya that we Mets fans object to.
   39. I Love LA (OFF)  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 01:11 AM (#2239256)

I've seen other sites that where you can choose to not see posts by a certain user and they're automatically filtered out. With higher traffic sites (digg, slashdot, etc.) you can do that at the individual comment level, but here it may better done at the user level. I think Primer should consider adding that pretty soon.


They need to get on that. Fast.
   40. 1k5v3L, Useless  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 01:18 AM (#2239261)

I think it's the knee-jerk rips on all things Mets and Minaya that we Mets fans object to.


I'm just BEGGING Omar to give me a reason to cheer him...

Anyhow, I'll shut up about him. Incidentally, it's been pretty hard lately to NOT post anything on Mets threads; I reckon about 94% of all threads on primer are either about the Mets or become about the Mets within 7 posts. It's about time the Mets got their own section on primer, similar to Sox therapy, no? :)

Btw, I thought that my reference to a really good song would evoke a chuckle or two. Tough crowd.
   41. 1k5v3L, Useless  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 01:23 AM (#2239264)
and moving Valentin to the OF would be worst of all... especially if Green is still out there.


I actually thought Omar was being facetious about moving Valentin to LF. Valentin has the greatest value at 2b, especially if platooned with a guy like Graffanino to give Jose time off and avoid his futility against lefties. With enough forethought, you could actually limit Jose's at bats if he's not hitting that well so that his 2008 option doesn't vest.

While El Duque can be downright dominant on a good day, his body just won't allow him to give you even 150 innings; worst case scenario with him is that he ends up on the DL when you need him the most (i.e., in the playoffs, or in the middle of a critical stretch to make it to the playoffs). I would've actually considered moving El Duque to the pen next year, and giving him 100 innings there. But do you pay $6m for that? I wouldn't.
   42. Raskolnikov  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 01:26 AM (#2239266)
The problem is that the $8M in 2008 is money down the drain (or worse because they stick on the team in place of better youngsters) and moving Valentin to the OF would be worst of all... especially if Green is still out there.

True, but the leverage was with Valentin and Duque. Why would they sign for 1 year when they know that they will be disposed of next year?

Omar could have let them test the market, but that's always a risky proposition for players that you really don't want to lose. Once that situation occurs, there are no promises.

I really like how the front office is treating their own players. The top needs to be considerate to the veterans, to establish continuity and loyalty. It's not always about maximizing the dollars-for-production that produces the best organizations.
   43. Harold  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 01:35 AM (#2239270)
It's about time the Mets got their own section on primer, similar to Sox therapy, no? :)

I assume levski knows this already (hence the smiley), but they already have one.
   44. 1k5v3L, Useless  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 01:35 AM (#2239271)
that's always a risky proposition for players that you really don't want to lose.


While I agree with this sentiment, I hardly would put El Duque in this category of players.
   45. I Love LA (OFF)  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 01:49 AM (#2239279)
I have no problem with Stache. His defense is spectacular, and he can still do a lot of damage against RHP with the bat. El Duque, on the other hand...
   46. Russlan wants Pedro to be a Met again  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 02:41 AM (#2239296)
What's wrong with El Duque? Since coming back in 2004, he's put up a fips ERA of 4.27 while the league average ERA was 4.46. He finished the regular season well and still has enough stuff to be a 100-110 ERA+ guy in my opinon. He's a health risk but if the Mets sign two more pitchers as expected, they'll have the depth to overcome his eventual injury.

My over/under on Duque over the next two seasons is a combined ERA+ of 100 and about 240 IP over the next two years. In this market, that's not a bad deal at all.
   47. 1k5v3L, Useless  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 02:54 AM (#2239298)
So you think that 120 innings of 100 ERA+ are worth $6m?
   48. Kyle C welcomes back our OBP Savior  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 02:54 AM (#2239299)
Omar's about as likely to go for that as, say, you are to kiss a girl some time this century.


I normally hate your guys bickering, but this was really damn funny. I'm laughing way too hard at this.
   49. 1k5v3L, Useless  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 02:56 AM (#2239300)
I normally hate your guys bickering


I normally hate my guys bickering too... ;)
   50. Russlan wants Pedro to be a Met again  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 03:06 AM (#2239303)
So you think that 120 innings of 100 ERA+ are worth $6m?

Levski, you are smart enough to know that most of the time that you have to give guys more than they are worth to get them to sign. I can live with that kind of overpayment. 120 IP of 100 ERA+ is nothing to sneeze at especially if you have non-horrible options to step up if the need arises.
   51. Raskolnikov  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 03:09 AM (#2239305)
So you think that 120 innings of 100 ERA+ are worth $6m?

For the Mets in 2007 and 2008, absolutely. Also have to factor in his "veteran presence" and his postseason experience, however much one values them.
   52. 1k5v3L, Useless  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 03:27 AM (#2239309)
Russlan, that's fine. Personally, I'd hate to see *my* team pay $6m for 120 innings of 100 ERA+ to a guy who's supposed to be a starter. You can rather easily procure 120 innings of 100 ERA+ for half of that cost.

Also have to factor in his "veteran presence" and his postseason experience, however much one values them.


Of course, that counts for very little if El Duque is on the DL during the post-season. And I don't think the Mets are lacking "veteran presence"; if anything, they need more youthful exuberance.
   53. Russlan wants Pedro to be a Met again  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 03:40 AM (#2239316)
Russlan, that's fine. Personally, I'd hate to see *my* team pay $6m for 120 innings of 100 ERA+ to a guy who's supposed to be a starter. You can rather easily procure 120 innings of 100 ERA+ for half of that cost.

Obviously, the Mets and D-backs don't operate on the same level financial level. What might be acceptable to the Mets might be prohibitive to the Diamondbacks.

You can rather easily procure 120 innings of 100 ERA+ for half of that cost.

You have said this more than once but I disagree. I think it is a lot harder than you think.
   54. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad)  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 08:13 AM (#2239349)
"What's wrong with El Duque?"

He's about six million years old, he's got a poor health record, and you're using money/roster spots on him that could go to a better player?
   55. 1k5v3L, Useless  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 08:50 AM (#2239366)

You have said this more than once but I disagree. I think it is a lot harder than you think.


Not if you truly understand the value of pre-free agency players.
   56. Watch out for the door, Omar...(Met Fan Charlie)  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 09:39 AM (#2239413)
So you think that 120 innings of 100 ERA+ are worth $6m?


I think the real question is: why do you care, levski?

Why is every move Omar makes fodder for your...um...cleverness?

Are you pinin' for the fjords? Are you wishing you could trade Josh and import some foreign flava?

Do you have Omar envy?

Why do you care so much about the Mets?
   57. Sam M.  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 09:46 AM (#2239420)
Why are you guys talking about the El Duque signing on the thread about this trade, and this trade on the Oracle thread about the El Duque signing???

Oh, the strange ways of BTF . . . .

Anyway.

This trade makes all the sense in the world to me. The Mets are massively overloaded in the bullpen, especially if they believe they are well-positioned to bring back Bradford and have no intention of moving Heilman (either to another team or the rotation). Ring and Bell and almost the definition of superfluous. To turn the two of them into one reliever and a much-needed spare outfielder is, to me, a no-brainer. The four of them are all basically spare parts, and the Mets need an OF spare part more than they need a bullpen spare part.

And Johnson is a particularly helpful type of OF spare part for the Mets, because of Shawn Green's defensive woes and the Mets already-healthy offense. They needed a good glove spare part more than they needed a potent bat, especially if Endy might be pressed into semi-full-time duty in LF.

The idea that Ring or Bell somehow have more value than they brought in this deal is dubious at best. They are AAAA fodder. No one was going to be banging down Omar's door for those guys. He flipped them for the guy BA rated the Padres' 4th best prospect a year ago, who fits a current need on a team built to win now, and who is apt to help them this season. That ain't a bad return on two guys who had little to do with the Mets' success last year, were likely to contribute almost nothing to their hoped-for success in 2007, and were hardly part of the blueprint for the Citifield Dynasty.

Oh, and I always hate Levski and Base's bickering. Always.
   58. Rob Base  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 10:00 AM (#2239429)
Oh, and I always hate Levski and Base's bickering. Always.


Eh. I hate soccer and college football. It is what it is.
   59. Superunknown Gary Geiger Counter  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 10:08 AM (#2239434)
Why do you care so much about the Mets?


Probably because he's in New York and sick and tired of hearing about the Mets and Yanks 24/7.

He's in all the Jets and Giants threads at Football Outsiders, too ;). And you should see his Isiah comments at Courtside Times.
   60. Bwef  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 10:26 AM (#2239446)
Why does everyone think that Johnson can't hit. He had a .950 OPS in the PCL at age 23. He's had 200 sporadic at bats in San Diego. It seems pretty well established that hitters tend to improve up to about age 28. He could turn into Xavier Nady with more speed. That's a pretty good 6 or 7 hitter. I like the deal for the Mets because of Johnson's potential to blossom and because the dumped two pitchers that they clearly didn't have confidence in.
   61. Sam M.  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 10:41 AM (#2239455)
Why does everyone think that Johnson can't hit.

I'm not assuming he can't; I'm just saying that even if he is a AAAA bat, he's a worthwhile spare part for the Mets and a reasonable return in this deal. If he develops into a reasonable major league hitter, then it'll turn out to be a steal for the Mets. But that doesn't have to happen for it to be a decent trade.
   62. billyshears  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 11:03 AM (#2239473)
It's clear that the Mets don't trust Bell and I'm not sure that they're wrong about that. I think they were happy that Ring strung a few good months together so they could get anything for him. Ben Johnson will likely be on the Mets next year - that's more than we can say for either Ring or Bell. As far as Valentin and El Duque, I suspect that we will feel a lot better about these deals when the offseason is over. Everybody criticized the Kris Benson signing, but that deal held up better than most of the deals for pitchers that offseason. After all, would you rather have Mark DeRosa for $13 mil or Valentin for $4 mil with a vesting option that could make it $8 mil?
   63. Der Komminsk-sar  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 11:18 AM (#2239488)
Great trade for the Mets.
   64. Watch out for the door, Omar...(Met Fan Charlie)  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 11:36 AM (#2239500)
Probably because he's in New York and sick and tired of hearing about the Mets and Yanks 24/7.


Didn't ever get he was in NY. Thought he was stranded in Phoenix...
   65. Tom D  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 11:38 AM (#2239501)
Oh, and I always hate Levski and Base's bickering. Always.

Maybe a separate blog should be set up just for that.
   66. Raskolnikov  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 11:47 AM (#2239514)
Why does everyone think that Johnson can't hit. He had a .950 OPS in the PCL at age 23. He's had 200 sporadic at bats in San Diego. It seems pretty well established that hitters tend to improve up to about age 28. He could turn into Xavier Nady with more speed. That's a pretty good 6 or 7 hitter. I like the deal for the Mets because of Johnson's potential to blossom and because the dumped two pitchers that they clearly didn't have confidence in.

I don't see it. He's had one good hitting season out of six. That 950 OPS season is clearly the outlier of the group. Nady has easily out-hit Johnson at each level.

He's not a no. 6 or no.7 hitter, he's a spare outfielder. Nothing in his track record suggests otherwise.

The idea that Ring or Bell somehow have more value than they brought in this deal is dubious at best. They are AAAA fodder.

I've disagreed with this notion about "AAAA" pitchers for too long, I'm tired of arguing it. Fortunately, it looks like Ring and Bell are now in a situation to test this idea. Bell and Ring can be solid relief pitchers at the ML level, it's just a matter of giving them a chance. Let's keep our stances and revisit this in a year.

Only way this exchange is fair is if Bell and Ring are out of options, otherwise Omar comes out on the short end.
   67. I Love LA (OFF)  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 11:53 AM (#2239518)
I don't know about Ring, but Bell was definitely out of options.

Can someone post some scouting reports on Ben Johnson? I know nothing about the guy. With a name like that, he'd better be toolsy, no? How about Adkins? His K/BB at the majors look bad.
   68. Sam M.  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 11:58 AM (#2239523)
Bell and Ring can be solid relief pitchers at the ML level, it's just a matter of giving them a chance. Let's keep our stances and revisit this in a year.

And in a bullpen with Wagner, Sanchez, Heilman, Bradford, and Feliciano, they were never going to get the chance. Nor should they have. They were utterly wasted and superfluous to the the Mets, even if you think they are all that (which I don't, but granting your premise). Even if they are not out of options, they would have spent 75-90% of 2007 at New Orleans anyway -- and Johnson won't. He's significantly more useful to the 2007 Mets, and getting someone useful to the 2007 Mets for Ring and Bell is certainly OK by me. Because I don't think, all things considered, either of those guys had more than a 20% chance of ever being useful (whether because they're not that good or because there's just no room at the inn).

Thus, I don't really care if they do well for the Padres or not; it's not particularly relevant. They wouldn't have for the Mets, and they weren't going to bring anything more back in a different trade. That's what counts. To the extent it matters, I wouldn't be surprised if one or both of them does OK, and I wouldn't be surprised if one or both of them spends the entire season in the PCL. It's who they are.
   69. Tom D  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 12:01 PM (#2239526)
I'm just BEGGING Omar to give me a reason to cheer him...

Self-immolation thread to 97-65 in two years, something that I thought would (a) take significantly longer and (b) require an ownerhip change.


He's not a no. 6 or no.7 hitter, he's a spare outfielder.

Randolph did well with spare parts in 2006. Johnson certainly a better risk/return scenario than some of the Ledee/Williams types who have been paraded through town. His presence makes guys of that ilk a less likely option.
   70. Sam M.  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 12:04 PM (#2239528)
Can someone post some scouting reports on Ben Johnson? I know nothing about the guy. With a name like that, he'd better be toolsy, no?

Here's what BA said about him in December 2005, ranking him the Padres' # 4 prospect (behind Cesar Carrillo, George Kottaras, and Josh Barfield):

Strengths:

Johnson has all the tools to be an everyday outfielder in the big leagues. He has shortened his swing and developed above-average power while improving his grasp of the strike zone. Once a plus-plus runner, he’s now just a tick above-average. He’s a good right fielder with a solid arm.

Weaknesses:

Johnson has a tendency to overswing, as he did in the postseason. He still has troubles with breaking balls, particularly against righthanders, and some scouts project him as a platoon player.

The Future:

The Padres have been patient and believe Johnson is ready to contribute in San Diego. He’ll have to beat out veteran Dave Roberts for a full-time starting job.

2006 obviously didn't advance his fortunes any with the Padres . . . .
   71. I Love LA (OFF)  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 12:06 PM (#2239529)
Are Bradford and Feliciano coming back? We can't afford to lose these guys.

Speaking of relievers, I'm hoping the Mets offer arbitration to Kool Aid. Randolph treated him like crap last year so I doubt he'd want to comeback, which works just fine because I'd love to add two more first round picks to our system.
   72. I Love LA (OFF)  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 12:09 PM (#2239530)
Do we by any chance have Johnson's career minor league splits?
   73. Шĥy  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 12:17 PM (#2239535)
If Shawn Green is going to start he needed a platoon partner. Johnson can fill that role.
   74. Raskolnikov  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 12:22 PM (#2239543)
Thus, I don't really care if they do well for the Padres or not; it's not particularly relevant. They wouldn't have for the Mets, and they weren't going to bring anything more back in a different trade. That's what counts. To the extent it matters, I wouldn't be surprised if one or both of them does OK, and I wouldn't be surprised if one or both of them spends the entire season in the PCL. It's who they are.

Well, it is relevant to me at the level of seeing this game, classifying pitchers, and labeling. My sense is that certain pitchers pick up this label as "AAAA" pitchers because they put up excellent numbers in the minors and then struggle in limited opportunities at the major league level. Some pick up the title of journey relievers, and some pick up the stigma of AAAA pitchers. My hypothesis is that there is no difference between the two, that it is based on the prejudice of baseball people and fans.

Sam, you and Russlan are two of my favorite Primer posters and we've had lively discussions on many topics. But Heath Bell is one that I've never quite understood why you and Russlan have labeled in this way. He's received quite a bit of heckling from the fans and, in my opinion, he's never been given a fair shot. On the level of contributing to the 2007 Mets, it's questionable what he could have brought. But on the higher level of how we will remember Heath Bell and how we perceive him, I want to see how he fares when given a specified role and a full major league season. As a matter of principle.
   75. Coach Mark S. is a blogging fool  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 12:33 PM (#2239549)
I don't know about Ring, but Bell was definitely out of options.


I believe that Ring had one more year of options left.
   76. Gromit  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 12:39 PM (#2239555)
Last year, Padres reserve OF Xavier Nady.
This year, Padres reserve OF Ben Johnson.
   77. HowardMegdal  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 12:51 PM (#2239563)
Sam has again made my point for me. Why is a 25-year-old OF who is already a plus fielder and runner and has shown the ability to hit for power not worth a shot here?
   78. G A Delgado  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 12:53 PM (#2239569)
Next year, Padres reserve OF Paul McAnaulty
   79. zonk  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 12:57 PM (#2239576)
Anything that makes Mets fans unhappy, be it Levski or the loss of Heath Bell, can't be a bad thing.
   80. Russlan wants Pedro to be a Met again  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 01:13 PM (#2239599)
Are Bradford and Feliciano coming back? We can't afford to lose these guys.

I don't think Feliciano has the service time to be arbitration eligible much less a free agent although I don't know how his time in Japan will be considered. Bradford is a free agent and it is probably a little bit worrisome that he hasn't been signed yet. He's a type A free agent so the Mets do get a pick if he doesn't sign with them.
   81. Raskolnikov  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 01:19 PM (#2239613)
Next year, Padres reserve OF Paul McAnaulty

Didn't know who he was until your post. I hope so, McAnulty looks like he can rake.
   82. baseball chick (now, with NEW blog)  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 01:46 PM (#2239668)
ok levski,

guys here don't wanna hear what you think bout mets. so lets hijack this thread and talk astros.

because we are LOWERING payroll and gonna trade lidge, non tender ensberg and sign aubrey huff, a much much better player who is younger too, put sampson in the bullpen to mop up a few times, trade everett for some loogy to make phil happy, sign carlos lee at 20 mill a year for 6 years or something to "play" left and basically suck more then the pirates. yes it IS possible.

so cmon boy, lets go

oh yeah. ida wanna talk roger/andy i am tired of their shttt
   83. Ravecc  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 02:11 PM (#2239688)
Towers had always liked Bell – he was working on the Linebrink for Bell+Perez trade that couldn’t get done before the deadline. And Ring was the closer for SD State. I think those two will do well – the Pods have a great track record with spotting talent and building their pen on the cheap.

Adkins is just more noodle to throw at the wall. Johnson may be useful, but I don’t see what he can do that Lastings couldn’t. Is this another indication that Lastings will be dealt?

Omar may have done this just for the roster flexibility. I like both guys, and I don’t like the idea they’ve been Keppingered.
   84. J. Cross  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 02:11 PM (#2239689)
bc,

Is Luke Scott going to play every day?

Last year, Padres reserve OF Xavier Nady.
This year, Padres reserve OF Ben Johnson.


If Ben Johnson is really a plus defender he might be about Nady's equal overall.

So you think that 120 innings of 100 ERA+ are worth $6m?

I think that's more or less what they cost on the free agent market. If starting pitchers are $4M/marginal win (more costly than any other position), El Duque needs to be 15 runs over replacement to be an average signing. This means that his RA needs to be about 1 R/g (about 0.9 ER/g) better than replacement. Bill James projects him at 4.1 ER/g and 5.0 ER/g seems like a fair replacement level (for a starting pitcher at Shea).

Now, that doesn't mean that it's the best way to spend your money... but, I think it is the going rate.
   85. Raskolnikov  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 02:20 PM (#2239697)
mlbtrade rumors are reporting rumors of Peavy to the Braves for Giles/Salty/HRam.

If that's the case, Omar has to get on the phone and see what Towers would demand of the Mets.

I respectfully hate Schuerholz.
   86. HowardMegdal  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 02:21 PM (#2239700)
"Adkins is just more noodle to throw at the wall. Johnson may be useful, but I don’t see what he can do that Lastings couldn’t. Is this another indication that Lastings will be dealt?"

Against lefties, Lastings can't play left and right field. At least not yet.
   87. G A Delgado  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 02:24 PM (#2239705)
Next year, Padres reserve OF Paul McAnaulty

Didn't know who he was until your post. I hope so, McAnulty looks like he can rake.


Well, Nady looked like he could rake, ditto for Johnson and they still traded them, McAnaulty seems to be the better overall hitter of the 3 though, but seeing how he is the Pads 4th-5th outfielder this year, he might be dealted next year too.
   88. Raskolnikov  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 02:24 PM (#2239706)
And Ring was the closer for SD State. I think those two will do well – the Pods have a great track record with spotting talent and building their pen on the cheap.


Neil Walker is about to sign for 3/10 with the Orioles. Towers did a very nice job picking up a lefty for much less.
   89. G A Delgado  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 02:25 PM (#2239708)
You mean Jamie Walker...
   90. Raskolnikov  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 02:34 PM (#2239715)
I wonder if Milledge/Perez/Heilman wouldn't trump Giles/Salty/HRam. Still, I'd have to think hard before giving up Ollie...
   91. baseball chick (now, with NEW blog)  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 02:44 PM (#2239725)
j cross

i HOPE luke scott is gonna play every day. him and roy and lance berkman and adam everett will be the only reason to watch this team this year.

problem is that he's a left fielder and he plays right about as well as jason giambi and i am POSITIVE we are gonna sign carlos lee and let him butcher left. preston wilson gonna look like carl crawford next to carlos lee in left

i will be REAL surprised if mo ensberg or jason lane is on this team opening day. and i would not be real too surprised if we trade brad lidge for some crap. i mean a contact hitters who don't strike out because phil and the houston media think ballplayers who strike out are bad people

sigh

we got exactly nobody at AAA who is worth 2 cents neither.

and you watch - we gonna sign some tigers old buddies of phil garners offn the junk heap

last year i was praying we would at LEAST get to .500
this year i am praying we don't lose more then 100

because we are going to have a very very very bad team. i was hoping that mclane would fall in luuuuvvv with winning. but he's still more in luuuuvvvv with keeping the extra 30 mill he gonna be getting.

it is funny because all the fans screaming bout how purpura sucks and he don't do nothing - but i would bet that all he do is exactly what mclane tell him to. trust me i understand how the royals and pirates fans feel. and real soon our team is gonna look like them.
   92. HowardMegdal  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 02:53 PM (#2239733)
"I wonder if Milledge/Perez/Heilman wouldn't trump Giles/Salty/HRam. Still, I'd have to think hard before giving up Ollie..."

Look, if they want a catching prospect, we have Flores... Hard to believe Milledge/Heilman/Flores doesn't trump it, though it doesn't give SD the starting 2B...
   93. zack  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 04:43 PM (#2239795)
Ben Johnson vs. Lefties: 316/365/561 in the PCL.
vs. Lefties: 275/383/471 in the NL

In only ~100 ABs total.

Shawn Green's caddy?
   94. G A Delgado  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 04:57 PM (#2239803)
So who's Salty? Isn't HRam Hanley Ramirez?
   95. stubbyc  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 05:04 PM (#2239809)
because we are LOWERING payroll and gonna trade lidge, non tender ensberg and sign aubrey huff, a much much better player who is younger too, put sampson in the bullpen to mop up a few times, trade everett for some loogy to make phil happy, sign carlos lee at 20 mill a year for 6 years or something to "play" left and basically suck more then the pirates. yes it IS possible.

Ensberg won't get non-tendered. Everett isn't going anywhere and there's no problem between him and Phil. They won't sign C-Lee for anything close to that money. The Astros have been so much better than the Pirates for so long it's ridiculous to even discuss. No it's not possible.
   96. stubbyc  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 05:08 PM (#2239812)
it is funny because all the fans screaming bout how purpura sucks and he don't do nothing - but i would bet that all he do is exactly what mclane tell him to. trust me i understand how the royals and pirates fans feel. and real soon our team is gonna look like them.

You make yourself miserable really easily.
   97. HowardMegdal  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 05:10 PM (#2239815)
Doesn't matter- Metsblog has retracted it. Apparently it was a Jerry Crasnick impersonator (a common phenomenon)
   98. MM1f  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 05:11 PM (#2239816)
94. G A Delgado Posted: November 16, 2006 at 04:57 PM (#2239803)
"So who's Salty? Isn't HRam Hanley Ramirez?"

Salty is Jarrod Saltalamacchia..one of the best catching prospects in the game despite a poor, injury-plagued year this year.

And HRam, at least for the purposes of this discussion, is Horacio Ramirez an averagish LHP for the Braves

I am praying to sweet baby Jesus that there is some chance the Giles/Hram/Salty for Peavy/Linebrink rumors have even a wee shred of truth to 'em.


88. Raskolnikov Posted: November 16, 2006 at 02:24 PM (#2239706)
"Neil Walker is about to sign for 3/10 with the Orioles. Towers did a very nice job picking up a lefty for much less."

Jamie Walker that is...and, uh, I dont get sentence #2. Yes KT did get a LHP for less than what Jamie Walker got but youre forgetting that Walkers actually a good pitcher and Royce Ring is, eh, Royce Ring.
Sure Ring COULD turn into Walker (Walker wasnt much at age 26) but for a team in contention the difference is vast. Thats like signing Rich Aurilia and saying you've done good by getting a SS for cheap rather then spending stuff on Miguel Tejada. you get what you pay for and I'd much rather pay for Walker if i think I'm a contender.
   99. MM1f  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 05:14 PM (#2239820)
Also, I dont see how Mets fans can not like this deal. Adkins really isnt THAT much worse than Heath Bell (why people still think hes a dealbreaker I dont know) and they got a kid in Johnson whos a solid 4th OF who can contribute in all areas immediately and whohas the upside of an averagish OF.

Nice deal
   100. G A Delgado  Posted: November 16, 2006 at 05:18 PM (#2239824)
I don't think there's any truth to them, Towers said yesterday that Peavy will not be dealt as long as he's the GM and he also said that they will not deal Linebrink this season either...although I think that if they're gonna deal Linebrink they should do it this year at a high.
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