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Payton is just about exactly as good as Roberts offensively and defensively, but he's a righty, so he'll fit the team better.
Pauley seems to have a C+ prospect reputation, which is nice as a throw in.
The Padres threw in some cash too. If the Sox aren't taking on any money it's a nice little deal.
Not that Jay Payton et al are much to write home about, but still.
Well yeah, it doesn't look like he can play D though. Entering this year his 2B UZR was -18 in 73 games, and his SS UZR was -16 in 135 games.
Do we, JBH? Was Cabrera ahead of Finley in the FA list?
Finley wasn't offered arb
Jay Payton, as noted, is the King of UZR. Righty, some pop, great glove, absolutely perfect 4th OF for Boston. It's a small move, but I like it a lot.
Roberts' speed, defense, and just enough OBP shoulfd be a great match for the big ballpark in San Diego. I'll be rooting for him.
hehe
No price is too high for the intangibles he brings.
Cool! Now we just Philly to sign Lowe, which would bump the Yanks #17 for Lieber back to the 2nd round, and give us the first rounder. BTW, this system for compesation is stupid.
Roberts seems to me like a player who gets overwhelmed when he plays full time. He thrived last year as a 4th outfielder and I think if he's removed from that role, he won't hit nearly as well. He also might not hit a single HR in Petco all year. Payton also has a higher career EQA (and had a good year in 03 (.275 EQA)) and is a better defender. I think Payton for Roberts would have been a fair trade, with the Red Sox getting the better end. This is awful.
He wouldn't be involved in a 3 for 1 deal.
Am I the only one rooting for someone to give Varitek an insane contract the Sox can't match, even if it means that the Sox have to sign AJ Pierioaerazki (who's clearly a worse player) with nowhere left to spend the extra cash?
Absolutely, outside of our opinions on a particurlar player of course.
"But Payton makes tiwce what Roberts makes and Roberts has been a better hitter in recent years "
Well, recent year. Remember, Roberts blew in 03. Blew hard. Plus, the Sox are actually getting cash, from the Padres. That just seems silly to me.
Steve Hensen, ESPN 710am radio reporting on Randy Johnson trade - "what may be cause the problem in the trade is -- the Boston Red Sox. According to Hensen, one of the "simultaneous" signings/trades that has to happen for LA to do the RJ trade is to sign JD Drew. Well evidently per Hensen, Boston just bid more for Drew than LA may be willing to pay for. "
I would be crazy happy if we somehow got Drew. If you ignore the injuries he's not really any worse than Beltran. Who knows how he'd fit in though.
OK, I'll stop bad-mouthing John Rocker.
Rotoworld seems to think they're just clearing 40 man space with Traber, and they'll resign him on a minor league deal.
Rotoworld says DiNardo would have had to open next season in the majors if he wasn't nontendered. I didn't know that. They better get him back though.
EQAs by year:
Player 02 03 04
Roberts 276 246 273
Payton 280 275 251
It looks too close to call there. I'm a little suspicous because a lot of Payton's goodness has come in Coors.
Whaaa? IIRC, he was outrighted to the minors last year - any team in baseball could have had him. I've got a soft spot for him, he's a smooth fielder, tries to get on base, and is a lefty stick in the middle infield - but he's not rangy, lacks power, and might not make the R-Sox bench.
Ugh.
HAHAHA, that was pretty funny.
"Whaaa? IIRC, he was outrighted to the minors last year - any team in baseball could have had him."
I was basing that more on his consecutive .340 OBP seasons then last year. I didn't realize he fell off the planet. Still I think the 850 abs in 02 and 03 is more indicative of his talent then his 100+ last year. I bet he rebounds nicely.
Payton's UZR projects him as a +15-20 CF, so he's a very nice addition. Although he's never really hit outside of Coors, he should be a big upgrade on Kapler.
So, on draft picks, the Sox get a 1st rounder from the Angels and a 2nd rounder from the Mets, plus two comp picks. They lose their 1st-3rd round picks from the FA signings. It'd be nice if someone in the second half of the first round takes Lowe. Draft day's gonna be fun.
If the Sox are in on Drew, Manny is on the way out I'd guess.
That's the thing. What in the hell is going on if the Sox are bidding on Drew?
Theo does try to do interesting things. He's been pretty boring this offseason, so far.
Intangibles are worth 1.75-5.25 million/year, depending on the time and circumstances of the intagibleness. In this case, I would rate Roberts' intangible goodness at approximately 3.5 million/year given the magnitude of his intangible achievement in 2004. I see he has an IZR (Intangible Zone Rating) of 25.2, which is, of course, off the charts, which means King Theo got rooked by Big Daddy Towers.
If there was one base that needed to be stolen, and the weight of a franchise lay in the balance, I'd want Dave Roberts every time. That is an intangible worth having, because you just never know when that situation will pop up... but when it does, see, now you have your bases covered.
Brilliant... dare I say brilliantly sublime move here by Kevin Towers.
For those who are about to be intangible, I salute thee!
Your pal,
Larry
Maybe Ortiz. Would it be completely unrealistic for them to sign Drew, move Manny to DH and trade Ortiz for AJ Burnett?
I just watched the NESN DVD this evening.
That stolen base was totally awesome. If it were decreed that I should be forced to perform deviant sexual acts on a stolen base, I would choose that stolen base.
And of, if you think Traber or Dinardo is on Omar's radar, you may soon be getting a visit from Sonny the bird.
At some point last offseason I think I argued that trading Randy Winn for Ortiz would be a wash :P
"Trading" Ortiz for Drew is probably about a 3 win improvement. Then you'd get a freeroll on whatever value Ortiz gives you in trade.
The Sox wouldn't need to dump those guys, though, unless they have some more acquisitions to come.
I guess Theo might think this is the perfect time to slip those two past the rest of baseball. Plus, neither's all that good and Traber's probably not ready for ST.
That said, I don't think that Roberts is better than Payton, but apparently Bochy and Towers do.
Vazquez is a terrific utility infielder. His raw number look OK, but look at his platoon splits: he's a 280/370/370 type against RHP. I think he slept with Bochy's wife, though, because Bochy does not trust him one bit and wanted him gone.
I can't speak for Vazquez, but I can tell you I wouldn't sleep with Bochy's wife, and I sure as hell hope Vasquez has the ****ing sense to not do it, either.
Another intangible worth having: knowing which teammates' wife to sleep with.
Your pal,
Larry
But the upgrade involved there entirely separate from Ortiz. It's all replacing Manny's glove with Drew's.
I'd say there are three basic options for getting the Manny->Drew upgrade.
1) Trade Manny. Simple. Just, um, who'll take him? This is the best option only if the Sox have some bizarre need to cut payroll or if Beltran is a guaranteed sign if they can get the money.
2) Trade Ortiz. This is a somewhat larger upgrade than trading Manny, but it costs $15-20M more. That's a lot of extra cash. The return for Ortiz might be big, but there are so few big names on the market and even fewer open positions on the Sox roster for next year. I don't see it, honestly.
3) Trade Millar and Minky, move Ortiz to 1st. He doesn't look too awful there. Good arm, right? This would be the largest upgrade in wins of the three, I believe, and the second cheapest - only cost an extra $2-4M.
Possibly, the rumors about Theo's interest in Delgado could be a backup plan if the Drew acquisition doesn't come together, but he does trade Millar and Mientkiewicz. Though that is all, um, a little speculative.
Player 02 03 04Roberts 276 246 273
Payton 280 275 251
would do.Consider my curiousity sated.
had nice pretty spacing though.Dave Roberts for Ramon Vazquez might make sense for the Padres.
Dave Roberts for Jay Payton with no cash transfers involved could make sense for the Padres.
Dave Roberts for some random pitching prospect would definitely make sense for the Padres.
Dave Roberts for all three plus cash to pay for Payton's bloated contract makes absolutely no sense for the Padres.
Kevin Towers is usually smarter than this, but I don't understand how this trade improves the Padres, talent-wise or financially. If he felt that he needed to get Payton's salary off the books, then maybe Vazquez and the prospect were necessary to grease the wheels. But sending the cash needed to equalize the deal is just plain nutty.
In a way, but DH would be improved with Manny there.
2) Trade Ortiz. This is a somewhat larger upgrade than trading Manny, but it costs $15-20M more.
Probably what you'd pay to unload Manny anyways.
3) Trade Millar and Minky, move Ortiz to 1st. He doesn't look too awful there.
My memory is that he does look awful there. Can't seem to bend over to field grounders and not much of a scooper. Plus there's the back issues.
Possibly, the rumors about Theo's interest in Delgado could be a backup plan if the Drew acquisition doesn't come together, but he does trade Millar and Mientkiewicz. Though that is all, um, a little speculative.
Where's that rumor from?
Damn!
This is going to be really, really complicated - to execute and then to explain.
I'm not sure if that's the best deal though.
Let's say Drew and Ortiz are a wash offensively, Drew is 35 runs better than Manny in the field, Ortiz is 5 runs worse than Millar in the field and Minky's getting traded no matter what happens.
Trading Ortiz gets you 35 runs + his trade value + the $2 you save by keeping Ortiz instead of Millar
Keeping Ortiz gets you 30 runs + Drew's offense over Millar (WAG - 20 runs?).
Damn!
This is going to be really, really complicated - to execute and then to explain.
Intangibles always are. That's why you can't just look at WARP, ERA, TINSTAPP, JUGSTAPP, POP, or RBI. You need to look into a man's soul and see the depth of his intangibleness. Only then will true intangibility light your path to victory!
Payton is not a superstar.
Burnett would probably be a 10-20 run upgrade next year to the pitching staff, but then he'd be gone. And that's if the Marlins want a guy who's been playing DH.
If Ortiz can play first at all, I think it makes a lot more sense to keep him - in the scenario where the Sox take a run at JD Drew.
If the Sox can still spend the 2 million they save efficiently (giving newly acquired Ramon Vazquez's job to newly unemployed David Eckstein would work), they can just trade Ortiz for prospects. They'd lose in the range of 5 runs this year and get a good deal of future value. Although I'd fear for Theo's safety if he did that.
I watch it at least twice a week on my computer. The goods
Doesn't he have a home in Wisconsin (he married a woman he met while playing A ball there)? They could include him in a trade to...for...
Where's John Brattain with an Anna Benson joke?
This thread's better than that other stupid Payton-Roberts thread.
Apparently, Pauley's curve projects to be a plus pitch, and he has an actual fastball, too. Pauley's 2004 wasn't great, but it's nice to hear he has some upside.
Moving further off-topic, that Portland team is gonna be a hell of a lot of fun. The rotation should be Papelbon, Lester, Delcarmen, Pauley, Vaquedano/Cedeno - no filler. That's pretty cool.
Payton's among the top quartile of defensive centerfielders according to 2000-03 UZR, but I think calling him a "defensive superstar" is a bit of stretch. Very good defensive player is more apt, IMHO.
Pauley’s best offering is a curveball that can become a plus pitch. His fastball has solid-average velocity, sitting at 88-91 mph and reaching 94, and has good life. Though he’s not big, he has a quick arm and throws hard without effort. His changeup is progressing nicely.
Manny made 20 million last year, Drew will probably make 12 or so. I would be willing to pay 5 mil of Manny's salary if it meant that we'll be getting real assets back such as prospects. There would be also a saving of 3 million to go towards a bullpen arm.
Btw, I think Boston fans had to choose between Manny and Ortiz, they'd all choose Ortiz because Ortiz is cheaper, not to mention the fact that Manny was placed on waivers last seasno, and nobody cared then.
Millar would act as the "swingman", his primary role would be a 4th OF, but he could soemtimes DH if Ortiz needs a break, sometimes play LF if Nixon/Drew needs a break, sometimes start at 1B (When facing a lefty pitcher), be the first pinch-hitter up during interleague play, etc. I think 350 PA's for Millar would not be out of the question. 350 PA's at .825 OPS is worth keeping him around.
I justify Douggie's existence on the Red Sox with his glove and glove alone. He's probably among the top 3 in terms of defensive 1B's and can step in 2B at a pinch, so he does have value, even as a defensive sub. I know his contract is a bit big, but realistically you can't get jack back in a trade anyway. You might as well keep him and use him to your advantage.
Damn...I was really hoping the Orioles would go after Payton (esp. given how little the Red Sox paid for him).
And, Nixon -- if sold as healthy -- is not a negative value, like Manny.
This would also keep the team from being too lefty.
First, if we pursue the interesting mental exercise of figuring out what to do if they get Drew, let's start with discussions of trading Damon, not "Manny Ortiz". Ortiz is productive and underpaid; he's not going anywhere. Manny is productive and overpaid, but unless someone else wants to take on that cost he's staying. I don't expect this to happen, nor do I expect the Sox to get into the business of paying people not to play for them.
Damon is the most likely to go. The odds of him repeating last year's performance are low; he'd have to repeat last year's performance for his contract to be worthwhile; and there are likely some teams out there that are willing to take that chance.
Second, if the impact of getting Drew is that the Yankees don't get Johnson, even if Drew sits on the bench 9/162 it's about a 2- or 3-win improvement in the standings over the alternative.
They'd have to find a taker for Lieberthal's $7.5 million (a year) contract, and he's got 2 or 3 years on it.
CMirabelli
1BMillar
2BBellhorn
3BMueller
SSRenteria
LFRamirez
CFDamon
RFNixon
CShoppach
IFVazquez
IFMientkiewicz
IFYoukilis
OFPayton
OFHyzdu
SPSchilling
SPClement
SPWells
SPArroyo
SPWakefield
CLFoulke
RPEmbree
RPTimlin
RPMantei
RPHalama
RPKim?
Not too shabby. Catcher is the biggest need, obviously. With Embree and Timlin a year older, I'd say a really effective set-up man would be most welcome.
Best case scenario as I see it: Drew is signed to play LF, Ortiz stays, someone takes Manny. Who, though? Mets? Dodgers, maybe? Since it's an idee fixe a for me, may I propose Manny + $ to Colorado for Helton?
How's his defense?
You forgot Ortiz. I think one of Millar/Minky has to be dropped to make room for him, since the Sox can't go with fewer than 11 pitchers. Either that or Hyzdu or Youk goes to Pawtucket.
First is that they'll go with 12 pitchers instead of five outfielders, especially since Millar can sort of play in the outfield.
Second is that the fifth outfield spot will go to Rule V pick Adam Stern instead of Hyzdu.
I'd still like Varitek to replace Shoppach on that list (unlike most of you, I don't care if they overpay him) and I'd like Millar to disappear from that list, but you're right, it looks pretty good already.
One of the NY Papers is reporting that the Mets and Sox are talking Mientkiewictz, but that Theo wants too much. With Orber Moreno getting non-tendered (a guy I really want to sign now), I'm not sure what he could be asking for. He can't be asking for Milledge or Petit, can he?
What the hell could he be asking for? Aaron Heilman is asking for too much? Heath Bell? Did he ask for Zambrano to complete the horrible trades full circle? Does Victor Diaz help Boston at all -- now with Payton and Vazquez? Maybe that's it, Theo trying to stockpile cheap talent, but Mets like Diaz too much? The lack of anything resembling plate discipline would lead me to believe the Sox wouldn't be interested in him though.
Well he won a Gold Glove in 99. I don't know his UZR or anything, but I can't see it as being bad. He had an absolutely terrible year at the plate in 04, if he went to bat 4 times in a game, he was swinging at the first pitch in 3 of those at bats. Except for last year though, he's been excellent at the plate for a catcher. However he was pointed to as being the leader of the muntiny to get Bowa out of town, and got KILLED in the media for it. And Lieberthal didn't do anything to stop that perception. He's also an injury liability.
Rrriiight. I thought it was odd that both Hyzdu and Kim were on the roster. Forgot the all-important DH position. So, I'll drop Youkilis [ducks]:
C Mirabelli
1B Millar
2B Bellhorn
3B Mueller
SS Renteria
LF Ramirez
CF Damon
RF Nixon
DH Ortiz
C ?
IF Vazquez
IF Mientkiewicz
OF Payton
OF Hyzdu
SP Schilling
SP Clement
SP Wells
SP Arroyo
SP Wakefield
CL Foulke
RP Embree
RP Timlin
RP Mantei
RP Halama
RP Kim
I take it Victor Diaz's days at 2B are just a memory at this point? Not that the Sox need a 2B, really.
[Lieberthal] had an absolutely terrible year at the plate in 04, if he went to bat 4 times in a game, he was swinging at the first pitch in 3 of those at bats.
Sounds like something fixable. He still managed to put up a 100 OPS+ last year. Is he an injury risk beacuse he's a catcher in his 30's, or is there something else?
Well, that certainly doesn't help, but he's been hurt in the past... hmm... now that I look at it, he hasn't been hurt since 2001... I thought he was hurt in 02 or 03, but I was wrong. I stand (well actually I'm sitting) corrected, he's no more of an injury risk than any other catcher his age.
I agree on both of these points, provided they don't guarantee Tek a 4th year. Millar has value, but he's too much of a liability anywhere in the field. Plus, he's a grating dufus.
Maybe the Cardinals, although this seems unlikely unless they go really cheap at 2B/SS. Maybe some other team that I can't forsee. I just get the feeling the Sox won't be alone for long.
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