You know, I'm starting to think maybe the Marlins know what they are doing.

The fact that Ramirez is still playing SS instead of CF says they might not.

Thanks for reminding me. My head was about to explode.

His ZR is respectable this year, .811 last I checked, which is still better than Jeter, tho in the bottom 1/4 for all ML SS.

It is possible for a young player to improve defensively. Hanley always looked a little bit lost to me at SS, not like he didn't care or didn't have the athleticism, but that he might get better with experience. Especially with the team out of contention for the last couple of years- and probably the next couple- I think it is perfectly reasonable to let him see if he can make it work, because he's far more valuable as an average SS than a slightly above average CF (which is a lofty expectation in itself).

If he can just be a below average SS he's a great.

If I were Hanley, I'd keep in mind the Carlos Delgado contract. Make sure to get a no-trade so you can at least control where you're going.

I looked this up a while back, and don't feel like it now, but Hanley Ramirez was consistently rated as having the best infield tools in the Red Sox organization as a minor leaguer. My guess is that, having been a bit rushed to the majors, Ramirez has put in an incredible amount of work to make himself into a big league hitter, but has not yet put in the time to get his defense up to speed. I still think there's room for improvement, and as Darren said, Hanley with a -7 glove at SS is an MVP contender year in and year out.

My guess is that, having been a bit rushed to the majors, Ramirez has put in an incredible amount of work to make himself into a big league hitter, but has not yet put in the time to get his defense up to speed.

He's 24 now and in his third big league season. He's certainly had enough time to get his defense up to speed and he's seemingly not made any progress at all. He might just have bad instincts for the position.

His ZR is up considerably this year. That's progress.

What's Hanley likely to make in arb next year? With Howard getting $10 mil, it's hard to believe that Hanley won't get $12 or more. A .330 hitter with ~30 HR and ~50 SB, who plays SS. That's got to be worth a lot. If I were I him, I'd be a little tempted to see what I could get through arb.

But he'll be worth more in a trade when he's locked up to a reasonable deal.

Going from .786 to .814 is called statistical error, not progress, Darren.

He's still in the bottom 4th of MLB's SS, at an age and with tools that should warrant a top 4th placement.

He might be MLB's equivalent to Stephon Marbury.

And I see Jeter is customarily bringing up the rear again.

I suppose this is a good use of Mr. Steinbrenner's money.

#11
Please see #6. Makes perfect sense.

You know, I'm starting to think maybe the Marlins know what they are doing.

They don't spend money, but I'd argue that the Marlins organization is as good at talent identification and gets as much out of what they have as any team in the league.

They don't spend money, but I'd argue that the Marlins organization is as good at talent identification and gets as much out of what they have as any team in the league.

I'd love to see what Larry Beinfest could do if he was just given, say, the Twins budget.

I'd love to see what Larry Beinfest could do if he was just given, say, the Twins budget.

2005 Payroll
Marlins: $60.4M
Twins: $56.2M

2005 Payroll
Marlins: $60.4M
Twins: $56.2M

That's once in the past seven years that the Marlins' budget topped the Twins'. And the last three years, the Marlins have had no many at all. I think my point stands perfectly well.

Small sample and all, 149 PA's, but here's Hanley's Interleague splits:

.301 .329 .434

Not exactly MVP numbers, given the kid's Jeter-D thus far. Very nice for a SS of course.

Doesn't the NL have better batters now? The crop of 1b and most DH's in the AL are not that inspiring. Only a couple of players hit over 40 hrs last year for example, versus a whole bunch in the NL.

That's only half a split, teddy. You need to put his NL numbers up too for comparison.

Doesn't the NL have better batters now?

No. They have worse pitchers.

This could be good news for the Mets. At least it starts the parameters for a Reyes extension. Get it done, Omar!

In limited viewing (three game series) Hanley looked a lot smoother and at ease. Less thinking and more fluid.

FWIW

At least it starts the parameters for a Reyes extension. Get it done, Omar!

Looking at the ZR numbers, Reyes is off to a pretty poor start. Worse than Hanley.

Looking at the ZR numbers, Reyes is off to a pretty poor start. Worse than Hanley.

He's slightly better using RZR, 848 to 831 for Hanley, but Hanley has more out of zone plays, 11 to Reyes' 4. Reyes is off to a pretty mediocre start in RZR too though, there are 6 SS in the NL whom RZR rates higher: Tulo, Izturis, Yunel, Tejada, Bocock, Greene.

So if his ZR goes up, it's statistical error? Reason #245 why arguing with kevin is a waste of time.

There are only 245?


Looking at every remotely noteworthy transaction in Beinfest's tenure, I'm staggered by the extent to which his reputation outstrips his performance.

The lesson is that if your predecessor leaves you a cupboard full of good stuff, go ahead and trade it for less than it's collectively worth. After a time, most people won't remember half the things you gave up, so you'll only be judged on the prominent pieces you received rather than the net flow of talent, forever sealing your renown as a keen judge and developer of prospects.

I agree. It is "unpossible" for a 24 year old with top-flight athleticism to improve his defense...
If your first year or two, defensively, is poor that is your true talent level for life...
(/sarcasm)

#29,
Of course Beinfest's "net talent flow" looks poor. And of course he traded lots of the good cupboard away. It isn't like he had a choice. He simply isn't allowed (expect possibly, surprisingly, in this case of Hanley) to keep players once they hit arbitration.
You can't evaluate a guy dealing with the unique limitations of the Marlins ownership and 20-mil payroll like you would a GM in a normal situaiton. you really can't even compare him to most other small-market situations. The best comparison to Beinfest's situation you can only see by popping "Major League" into the DVD player

No. They have worse pitchers.

Who was the best pitcher to leave the NL after 2007?

Livan Hernandez? Octavio Dotel? Scott Linebrink?

Looking at every remotely noteworthy transaction in Beinfest's tenure, I'm staggered by the extent to which his reputation outstrips his performance.

The lesson is that if your predecessor leaves you a cupboard full of good stuff, go ahead and trade it for less than it's collectively worth. After a time, most people won't remember half the things you gave up, so you'll only be judged on the prominent pieces you received rather than the net flow of talent, forever sealing your renown as a keen judge and developer of prospects.

Somewhat related questions: Is there somewhere where you can look at a list of transactions a team makes over period X?

There are only 245?

No, that's just where it is on the list.

This could be good news for the Mets. At least it starts the parameters for a Reyes extension. Get it done, Omar!

Reyes signed an extension last year. He and Wright.

The 6 year deal is for 2009-2014, right? Buys out 3 free agent years? Excellent deal for the Marlins. Even if the first year of the deal is the rest of 2008, and extends him through 2 free agent years it's reasonable. That would effectively pay him 10 million per arb year and 20 million per free agent year. Put him on the free agent market and he probably gets over 30 million, especially with a few more years of inflation.

So if his ZR goes up, it's statistical error?

We're like, less than quarter into the season and you think that's statistically significant, Darren?

You do realize the difference between .786 and .814 at this point is about 2 plays, don't you?

Darren, if you want to be taken seriously, you're going to have to do better this. This isn't even Statistics 101. It's first grade arithmetic.

My rating for Ramirez so far is -1, based on RZR and out of zone plays. If he can be no worse than a -5 shortstop then you leave him there.

Who was the best pitcher to leave the NL after 2007?

??

Even if no pitchers left, they sucked last year too.

AROM,

Agreed. $10 mil/year in arb is a steal too. He should get that or more in his first year. How did you come up with -5 as the lower limit for keeping him at SS. What's the problem with him being -10?

What's the problem with him being -10?

A more pertinent question, Darren: what's the chance that 2 or 3 plays out of 160 could not be due to random chance?

Here, Darren:

Hypothesis testing (also called "significance testing") is a statistical procedure for discriminating between two statistical hypotheses - the null hypothesis (H0) and the alternative hypothesis ( Ha, often denoted as H1). Hypothesis testing rests on the presumption of validity of the null hypothesis - that is, the null hypothesis is accepted unless the data at hand testify strongly enough against it.

The philosophical basis for hypothesis testing lies in the fact that random variation pervades all aspects of life, and in the desire to avoid being fooled by what might be chance variation. The alternative hypothesis typically describes some change or effect that you expect or hope to see confirmed by data.

Do you know what the N number should be for the plays needed to give a .028 difference statistical significance (let's say 95% confidence interval)? I don't know either but my guess is it would have to be over 1000, minimum. Ramirez has made 167 plays so far.

Is there somewhere where you can look at a list of transactions a team makes over period X?

Each team's official site has a list of transactions dating back to 2001 under "Roster."

Thanks GMSRP