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Although he crosses both months here, so I guess he is Mr. Octonovember.
What irresponsible doctor shot him up with fertility drugs?
Manuel had to live or die with Madson there. He simply couldn't afford to bring in Lidge, Halloween being over and all.
Once the Yankees chased Lee from the mound at 8-4 it became a game of "can the Phillies bullpen get six outs before the Yankees get four runs."
AJ had nothing and was forced to like it.
Huge double play that His Captainness banged into in the ninth.
Gotta love Joe Buck, giving us the accounting, as the Yankees are rallying in the 9th inning, of whether Jeter gets an RBI and Damon gets a steal.
One wonders when the Yankee pitchers will get clued in not to throw Utley that pitch. They throw him the same pitch every time. And he hits it out. Every time.
This is a series again. Still an uphill battle for the Phillies, obviously, but if they can get this thing to a Game 7 all bets are off.
I'm cool with starting Burnett in this game. I'm not cool with starting Molina, whose magical hoodoo is all bunk.
Please stop talking about "days rest." It is the biggest non issue. Ever.
Along with the conventional wisdom that something is wrong with Cole Hamels.
Yeah, because there is zero chance that a pitcher would be significantly more effective pitching on the routine he has done for basically his entire career. I mean, that is freakin' impossible.
Or maybe you're just wrong, and part of the decision making that managers have to make is balancing out the rest that will tend to maximize the effectiveness of their pitchers, and the need to have their best pitchers available more frequently.
Other than the fact that Hamels is giving up runs left and right.
Other than the fact that Hamels is giving up runs left and right.
I would like to see Fact #2020: Cole Hamels is giving up runs left and right.
Please stop talking about "days rest." It is the biggest non issue. Ever.
You sure are smart. You'd improve any team in the majors if you were manager, that's for sure.
Yeah. Hey Yankees, stop throwing the ball over the middle of the plate, Utley seems to hit that pitch well.
There's no guarantee that Chad Gaudin would have done any better, and Burnett has been inconsistent enough that it's possible he'd have thrown the same game Wednesday on full rest. Going with the Big 3 was a reasonable, if not universal, choice. Time for Game 6!
Exactly.
I agree with all that, but shouldn't Game 5 of the ALCS have put paid to the myth of Jose Molina's magical powers?
Cole Hamels, 2008: 1.1 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 7.8 K/9
Cole Hamels, 2009: 1.1 HR/9, 2.0 BB/9, 7.8 K/9
So, you're wrong. He was just as sharp this year as he was last year. The only thing that changed was that his BABIP went from .262 in 2008 to .321 in 2009, producing the higher ERA.
As for this postseason he's walked 1.9 per 9 and struck out 7.1 per 9. What has changed is that his home runs went through the roof: 7 allowed in 19 innings. But it's only 19 innings. Last year he had a stretch where he allowed 4 home runs in 9.2 innings. Another where he allowed 8 home runs in 31.2 innings. It happens. Especially when facing good teams.
Not that four games means much of anything, but Burnett had a very strong record on short rest. The game he threw today, he could very well have done on 4, 5, or 12 days rest. The beauty and wonder of A.J. Burnett is that every now and again, more often than one would prefer, he comes out and has no idea where his pitches are going.
As for this postseason he's walked 1.9 per 9 and struck out 7.1 per 9. What has changed is that his home runs went through the roof: 7 allowed in 19 innings. But it's only 19 innings. Last year he had a stretch where he allowed 4 home runs in 9.2 innings. Another where he allowed 8 home runs in 31.2 innings. It happens. Especially when facing good teams.
and couldn't those changes be because he hasn't been as sharp? I mean your numbers there prove it, the homeruns going up is an indication of a less 'sharp' pitch, the high babip is an indication of an easier to hit pitch, yes the argument could be that it's variation within expectations, but a scout/fan watching him pitch is possibly capable of seeing that he isn't as on, on as many pitches as he was last year. As the saying goes, the difference between a good game and a bad game is just a couple of pitches. (of course isn't there a flaw with using the hr/9, k/9. bb/9 instead of a stat that is based upon opponent plate appearances)
Yeah, because there is zero chance that a pitcher would be significantly more effective pitching on the routine he has done for basically his entire career. I mean, that is freakin' impossible.
Burnett's regular schedule of 4 days rest would have him pitching not in Game 5 or Game 6, but tomorrow. I think we can agree that he wouldn't have allowed a hit.
If we're going to lovingly deconstruct a slivery smidgen of Burnett's statsheet, his career numbers are actually worse on 5 days' rest than on 3.
I can't wait to hear people get angry over labels that the local media ignorantly put on their own players and that are completely meaningless to anything.
You're damn right!
/Jays fan
Additionally, I think one of the reason Girardi picked this rotation was to shield himself from criticism that he used Gaudin instead of Pettite in one of three chances to win the World Series.
If Cole Hamels is a .300 BABIP pitcher, we'd expect him to have some seasons where he's above it (like this year) and some where he's below it (like last year).
Cole Hamels is not a .325 BABIP pitcher, but statistically, it was probable that he would put up a .325-ish BABIP once every six years or so and a .270 BABIP once every six years as well. They just happened to come back-to-back and they contrast poorly to the observer.
I think such criticism would have been valid. I like Chad Gaudin, probably more than he really merits, frankly. I think he's a pretty nice swing man to have on one's team. But I don't think he's a better pitcher on 187 days rest than Andy Pettitte is on 4 days. And I don't think whatever diminution in effectiveness on the part of Burnett and Pettitte being bumped up a day is larger than the drop-off from Pettitte to Gaudin.
If Girardi really wanted to avoid starting folks on short rest, he probably should have gone Robertson for a couple innings, Aceves for two or three, then Hughes/Coke/Chamberlain. But there is no manager living who would do that in the World Series.
Or not. I mean, who was catching Burnett last year? The Great Molina? No. It was Barajas and Zaun. And Burnett had a better year.
If he's flakey, that's a desirable trait in a pitcher.
Girardi has been making moves to shield himself from criticism? My god. What would his postseason look like if he wasn't trying to shield himself from criticism?
The only thing special about "The Great Molina" is that he's not Posada. Burnett doesn't wanna throw to Posada. And for better or (probably) worse, Girardi has capitulated to him. Barajas and Zaun have nothing to do with this. That Yankees could have any number of weak-hitting backup catchers and they'd be receiving for Burnett.
Why does Burnett dislike Posada so much?
(a) The Yankees don't have a fourth starter
(b) The Yankees will use only three starters in the postseason
If there's blame to be tossed here - and given that the Yankees are big favorites to win the series, most likely no one's really going to care by Saturday - it goes on Cashman for not acquiring a fourth starter better than Gaudin or Mitre.
RDP - Can you cite the evidence which backs up your certainty that pitcher rest is a "non-issue"?
There isn't much point to the 24th and 25th man on a playoff roster, usually. Gaudin's no different.
What a bunch of babies who can't be used outside of the routine. Managers are such a bunch of wusses too who are afraid to use a player in something other than the usual way. First it was closers, now its starters. God bless Joe Girardi for having some balls. Now if he only had a brain....
########. Rest is important to a pitcher. Not simply for endurance and velocity but for control. Too litte can be bad, too much can be bad. I was one who was arguing vigorously for starting Gaudin but using a very, very short leash but last night doesn't prove me (or the others arguing same) right. Gaudin may very well have been worse. As it is, it ended a two-run game. There is no guarantee that a Gaudin start keeps it closer.
But to say that rest isn't an issue is nuts. If it isn't, why doesn't CC pitch every game? I realize that is taking an argument to an extreme, but I assume you'll grant that no pitcher can pitch deeply in every game (hell relievers can't pitch an inning every game effectively). Once you acknowledge that the pitcher will need some rest, you have to decide how much. I don't see anyway that you can conclude that one days rest isn't enough but that there is no difference between 3 or 4.
Gaudin didn't come in because the game was still winnable and Giradi doesn't think he'll be effective. Gaudin only gets in in a blow out or to face a specific batter. IOW, he's near useless on the team.
BECAUSE YOU HAVE TO GO WITH "YOUR BEST." IGNORE ANY OTHER CONSIDERATION.
BECAUSE DON'T YOU KNOW THAT GAME 5 WAS REALLY GAME 7!!!
WE HAD TO WIN TONIGHT OR FRANCESSA WOULD RIP JOE ON HIS TALK SHOW.
BECAUSE JACK MORRIS WASN'T AVAILABLE.
And so now that the geniuses here have gotten their wish, let's see how their theories hold up when the 37 year old Pettitte starts on 3 days rest for the first time since 2006.
I'll say this, though: Girardi has sure made this Series a hell of a lot more interesting.
Casey Stengel woulda done it. Take a look at his WS pitching choices. Wow.
In 1953 Allie Reynolds starts 15 games and comes out of the bullpen 26 times, he leads the Yankees with 15 saves and throws just 145 IP. So who do you think starts game 1 and then doesn't start again, but finishes Yankee wins in games 6 and 7. Of course Reynolds had started game 1 in 1949, '51 and '52 and won them all. Did it again in '53 of course.
In 1956 he's got:
Ford 19-6 in 226 IP
Kucks 18-9 224
Sturdivant 16-8 158
Larsen 11-5 180
Turley 8-4 132
5 other guys started < 10 games
So in the WS he throws:
• Game 1 (Oct. 3) Ford lasts 3 innings and Kucks comes in trailing 5-2 and throws 4
• Game 2 (Oct. 5) Larsen gets knocked out in the 2nd and Kucks comes in again and it's 6-6 after 2, Yankees L both games
• Game 3 Ford W
• Game 4 Sturdivant W
• Game 5 Larsen's perfect game W
• Game 6 Turley throws 11 innings Yankees 4th complete game in a row L
• Game 7 Kucks finally starts a game and throws another CG shutour 9-0 Yankees W
In 1957 the Stengel magic didn't work so well. Sturdivant was his ace during the regular season but he didn't start in the Series until game 4 and got beat up. Larsen, meanwhile, had only thrown 140 IP and didn't start in the Series until game 7 and got beat 5-0.
In 1958 Turley and Ford each threw 200+ IP but he had a couple sore arms so 6 other guys started 10-20 games. In the Series he went with 3 guys--Ford, Turley, Larsen, Ford, Turley, Ford W game 6 on 2 days rest (2 DAYS!) on the road no less, and then Larsen started game 7 but gave way to Turley in the 3rd with the Yankees leading 2-1. As in 1949 and 1952 the Yankees again won games 6 and 7 on the road to win the Series.
There was a graphic last night that said that pitchers starting on 3 days rest in the WS have gone 12-35. I don't know what the start date was on that.
One of the oft-repeated tenets is that command tends to improve on short rest. From my observation Burnett had decent stuff, he just left it up over the plate. Considering Burnett does this all the time - it's what he's known for as a pitcher - I am skeptical you can just point to short rest and say that's the reason why.
Yeah, that Girardi is a fucking genius with his "go with your best" cliches. Too bad this isn't 1952 so it might do him some good.
I thought it was all post-season, and since 2000 or something. Also, against fully rested pitchers. Seems like too many for such a short period, but I may be wrong about the timeline.
edit: and it's now 12-36
Nah, some of us are just Yankee fans, and we're not crabby, we're merely sublimating our current desire to string Girardi up from a Bronx lamppost.
Of course that's the editorial "we", and may not necessarily reflect the views of Mahnken & Co.
The guy led his team to 103 wins missing its best player for a month, a mix/match rotation and old guys sprinkled all over the roster. Looks to have done a pretty good job from here.
You can always take most of my rhetorical hyperbole with a mountain of salt. And though I've said right from the git-go that using Burnett and Pettitte on short rest was/is insane, that doesn't mean that I think that Girardi's been a bad manager overall. Far from it.
But if the Yankees still win this thing, it'll be in spite of his handling of the rotation, not because of it. Beginning with last night's choice of Burnett, and now carrying over to games 6 and 7, he's put them in the worst possible position to win.
I just think that's nonsense. None of this is guaranteed. What Girardi did, beginning DURING THE SEASON, was prepare his big three to be ready for this (once it became clear that Joba wasn't ready to be the 4). Again: Can you imagine, with 3 games to win 1, that in one of those games either Pettitte or Sabathia doesn't start? His decision is quite defensible, and last night's game does nothing to disprove that.
Then it's goodnight Irene........
I just think that's nonsense. None of this is guaranteed. What Girardi did, beginning DURING THE SEASON, was prepare his big three to be ready for this (once it became clear that Joba wasn't ready to be the 4). Again: Can you imagine, with 3 games to win 1, that in one of those games either Pettitte or Sabathia doesn't start? His decision is quite defensible, and last night's game does nothing to disprove that.
JC, nothing is "guaranteed," and I've never said anything like that, so get that out of the way. This is strictly about percentages.
I think that Girardi was extremely wise, during the season, to give his starters occasional extra rest, in preparation for October. And that extra rest won't hurt them over the next game or two.
But that's got absolutely nothing to do with what I've been saying. You can read what Pettitte himself said after game 4, about how "he'd never battled so hard for a postseason win and that his mechanics were abandoning him," and you're telling me that that's who you want starting game 6---on 3 days rest?
Wouldn't it make far more sense to have a fully rested Pettitte available for any role in game 7, in case Sabathia's third straight short rest start winds up like it did last year, against the same team? Maybe not to you, but then I guess that's what makes for horse races.
I sure hope so, Harvey, and it goes without saying that Pettitte's not the only pitcher who's a bit worn around the edges these days. And I hope that Pettitte nails all of my nasty comments on the bulletin board and uses them as inspiration to show the world what he's made of.
But I know one thing: If I were to make a bet on Wednesday's game, it'd be on the over.
My god. I was talking about three days of rest vs. four.
But let's be honest, Buck is by far the worst of the two. McCarver at least used to be good. Buck never ever was. McCarver still gets credit for a 30 year old line when he used the description of a "Linda Ronstadt fastball--Blue Bayou." I suppose a purist could argue it was a Roy Orbison fastball, of course.
Guess you can't be bothered to read an entire post either. You're just right. So we should all shut up.
At what point is rest an issue? At what point is it not? Zero rest vs. one day; one day vs. two day? two vs. three? We know you think 3 vs. 4 is not an issue, so when is it an issue?
Also, as I said, Burnett's poor outing doesn't prove those of us who said not to start him right. It may well be that Gaudin would have done worse and was a worse option - I don't think so, but we can't really know*. But if he is such a bad pitcher that he can't even cover long relief in a barely winnable game, he should be sent to Columbus, not put on the WS roster.
* Except you, of course.
I hope we can all agree that a starter pitching on back to back days is a disaster waiting to happen. From observing playoff games, it does not appear that very long rest, such as when a team clinches one roung of the playoffs early, provides any additional benefit to the pitcher.
So there appears to be diminishing returns to the benefits of pitcher rest. Possibly even negative returns for very long rest. So the question becomes, at what point, how many days, does additional rest stop helping a pitcher? At what point does a pitcher have too much rest, and any additional rest becomes a hindrance?
If you want to make a case that 3 days of rest is enough, and the 4th day adds nothing, I'd love to see the data.
In this case, Rickey may be underselling things.
Isn't Buck-Aikman the A pairing for Fox football? Aikman is really good at analysis, IMO.
Tango said guys were 5 percent worse. I believe Rickey would say that after Burnett's outing, that's 6 percent right there.
In this case, Rickey may be underselling things.
Branch or Henderson?
A reporter asked Henderson if Ken Caminiti's estimate that 50 percent of Major League players were taking steroids was accurate. His response was, "Well, Rickey's not one of them, so that's 49 percent right there."
I'm pretty sure it doesn't work like that. I think as a pitcher tires, his mind continues to give the same instructions to the body, but the fast-twitch muscles simply can't execute it the same way. I think a pitcher is not able to give an accurate asessment of his performance, and can't give even an informed guess as to what future results can look like. A "done" pitcher will be far more likely to give up bad results than to simply say, "I've had enough, coach."
In other words, did Burnett know instantly or even quickly that he was going to get tatooed last night? I submit that he didn't.
my hope was Phillies win game 6, and then a rainout or two and Lee could start 7...
because doing that for a full season would increase each pitcher's total innings by 20-25%
I'd start Hamels, but have Lee on speed dial in the bullpen. I like the idea of having that extra guy in reserve, a la Pedro in 99, Randy in 01 and Mussina in 03. Not sure if actually makes a difference, however.
I think you want to give Pedro as much rest as humanly possible, so I'd go with Happ in Game Six and Pedro in Game Seven. Then again, despite Hamels' travails in the postseason, he was terrific for almost four innings in his first start, so maybe Hamels and Johnny Wholestaff is a reasonable plan in Game Seven.
Yep, old-fashioned fireman or if he isn't needed in that role, "closer".
Damn, Shredder, why can't Manuel resign and appoint you as the Phllies' interim manager?
because doing that for a full season would increase each pitcher's total innings by 20-25%
So? Just like they did with three days rest, pitchers used to routinely throw that many innings. Is the supposition that three days rest vs four days rest is meaningless, because guys used to do that and also that throwing 20-25% more innings in a season would be disastrous?
Data is very limited here. I fully acknowledge that I could be wrong and that Burnett on 5 days would have the same result as him on three days. I'm speculating and data is hard to come by to contradict or support the premise. But that doesn't prove me wrong or the folks saying three vs. four days rest is not an issue right.
What is the basis for concluding that 4 days is enough, but 3 days is not? We don't think that 4 days is too little as opposed to 5 days. So why are people drawing the line at 3 vs. 4? It seems arbitrary. Just because pitchers typically go on 4+ days during the season doesn't mean that there's anything magical about that, even given that that's what they're used to.
Pedro/Hamels...Lee if needed for game 7. You could get 3 or 4 out of both Pedro and Hamels, I'd think.
how many of this year's playoff teams had 4 credible starters?
I'd go to war with Cole Hamels.
Well, they screwed Joba up starting in August, with their brilliant 22-days-rest/12-pitch-starts plan down the stretch.
And Girardi has taken care of effing with Hughes in the postseason, overreacting to some poor outings.
It probably is. But through the season (today) pitchers get 4. So someone must have decided that four days rest is better than three. If you wanted to talk me into using your stud pitchers on 3 days rest and that they would do this enough to get used to and do the proper training to be equipped for it, you could convince me (hell, I am convinced).
But if you tell me they'll train for four days rest, be used on four days rest (and more) throughout the season and then, bam, you'll start using them on three days rest and then add in that the recent history of pitchers on three days rest is not good...then I take issue with it.
As I've said, I can't prove I'm right...but you can't prove you are, either. And more often than not the guy that goes on three days rest doesn't do well. Of course, sometimes he does. But, as Andy said, it's percentages you want to play and that leads to not using your guys on short rest. The Yankees will now do that three consecutive games. Since they just have to win one of those three, the odds are still with them.
And I reiterate, Burnett was much less an issue than Molina.
the supposition is that pitching on 3 days rest rather than 4 does not make a marked difference in a pitcher's performance; however, if you do it for a long time, throwing that many more innings over a similar stretch of time is going to wear a pitcher down and lead to injury. Even with 3-day-rest starts, the Yankee starters will still have thrown fewer innings in October than they did every month prior because of the extra days off between series, so I think it's an apples-and-oranges question.
The Angels, Red Sox, Rockies and Cards had better candidates than these teams. But the early rounds, particularly with all these bonus days off, aren't exactly a test of fourth starters.
I don't think that Hughes has been an undiscovered gem in the sand this postseason, but neither of us can prove it one way or another. I'd have absolutely yanked him in favor of Mariano at the end of Game 3 like Girardi did, but I don't think the BBTF intelligencia has come to a definite consensus about whether that was correct yet.
This is my feeling. Ultimately, unless a guy has demonstrated to me that he can do it (like CC), I don't like the idea of shortening a guy's rest period at the very point in the season when he's most likely in need of additional rest. And the performance of guys asked to do just that, other than the horses (CC and Schill) seem to bear this out.
Not knowing whether A.J. or Andy or Cliff Lee is such a horse, my default position is they aren't, and would only call upon them in such a role if I was truly desperate. The Yankees, entering Game 5, didn't qualify as desperate.
And as soon as your "ace" gets beat in the playoffs, you are toast.
I agree, and I think that's why this discussion has been interesting, and, at times, heated. In making a decision such as the one Girardi had to make, I think you are dealing more with qualitative, rather than quantitative, issues. If you were simulating the Series with PTP or DM or Strat, and your choice is Burnett on 3 days rest or Gaudin, you go with Burnett. The game would adjust him down some way--he tires one inning earlier, he is 20% less effective, whatever. In real life, though, you have to deal with a myriad of other issues:
Will his curveball roll if he is not 100% sharp? If he rolls it, do the Phillies have guys who are particularly dangerous against hanging curves? Do we have data on that?
If he can't spot his fastball quite as well as he usually does will he be able to get by, or will that location issue lead to a bombing?
Is he the kind of guy who really needs his routine, or does he adjust well to change?
What does he normally do on the 4th day he is off? How does that fit into his between-starts routine?
How are his mechanics? Is he likely to have problems with his release point if he is a little off-schedule?
So, I don't think it is obvious either way. My guess is that the extra day really matters to some guys, depending on their stuff and make-up. Other guys, not so much. If, for example, you have a guy who throws a sinker and has a good change up, he might be fine on three days rest. Subjectively, Burnett on short rest seemed like a questionable call to me, but I definitely do not think we can say, "Girardi blew it" or "Girardi was right; it just didn't work out."
The secondary part of the argument, of course, is how it affects Pettitte and Sabathia, but again, that will be an individual thing, based on those pitchers.
I agree with this. If Hughes kept pitching and got into more trouble, nobody would be against bringing in Mo. So I say don't let the trouble start in the first place. He only had to get 2 outs.
Tango and/or MGL studied this in The Book. I don't have it in front of me, but I'm pretty sure that they found that pitchers performed best on exactly 4 days of rest. (to be fair, the issue with Burnett was 3-days'-rest v. 5-days'-rest because of the off day today)
I have The Book on my desk at work. The Book Says:
Pitchers perform best with five days of rest, and worst with three. To manage the entire starting rotation effectively, four days of rest sems to be the optimal point.
wOBA against by number of days rest:
3 - .369 (1.75 SDs from the mean, given the sample size)
4 - .352
5 - .346
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