Valverde has sucked pretty bad this year for the Astros. I guess the D-Backs did win that trade after all.

Valverde has sucked pretty bad this year for the Astros. I guess the D-Backs did win that trade after all.

That's an interesting theory. I'd like to subscribe to your newsletter.
Listen, the Dbacks were absolutely correct to sell high on Valverde last year.
I've just been really disappointed in how bad Qualls, Burke and Gutierrez have been.
I mean, Qualls has blown up about a dozen times already and Burke absolutely sucks...

I didn't mind the D-Backs selling high on Valverde. I just didn't think they got enough for a guy with the "Proven Closer" label. Qualls may have been a good bet to provide comparable value but even though there's we scoff at the idea of that label, it does exist and I think Arizona should have done better job of taking advantage of that label.

Don't take post number one seriously. I was just foolin'.

Coming into tonight's games

OPS Against in high leverage situations, this season only (stats from b-ref)

Valverde in HOU: 0.539 (30 G, 82 PA, with 29 K vs. 6 BB and 1 HR)
Qualls in ARI: 0.823 (34 G, 85 PA, with 18 K, 6 BB, and 3 HR)

Basically, in high leverage situations,
Every hitter who faced Qualls was hitting like Chad Tracy (0.824 OPS)
Every hitter who faced Valverde was slightly better than Chris Burke (0.517 OPS)

So if believe these numbers, Qualls was much more likely to blow the save tonight than Valverde
And Qualls plus the defense tried, bless their hearts

Top 9th: Chi Cubs
- C. Qualls relieved M. Owings
- R. Theriot walked
- K. Fukudome hit for R. Johnson
- K. Fukudome safe at first on first baseman C. Tracy's fielding error, R. Theriot to second
- D. Lee grounded into double play shortstop to second to first, R. Theriot to third, K. Fukudome out at second
- A. Ramirez grounded out to second

Typically, with 2 runners on, Qualls hangs a slider that gets crushed for a 3 run home run
Tonight he got lucky
By the way, I won't be surprised if Valverde is getting overworked
Seems like he's in every single game the Astros play...

Derrek Lee's DP tendencies this season > Qualls' anti-mojo

It was a battle for the ages between those two strong forces, but only one could win out in the end.

So if believe these numbers, Qualls was much more likely to blow the save tonight than Valverde

Because if there's one statistic that we really should believe, it's leverage splits...

I just didn't think they got enough for a guy with the "Proven Closer" label.

When was the last time that a guy with a sketchy track record and the "proven closer" label was given a ridiculous contract or made the centerpiece of a ridiculously lopsided trade?

The Billy Koch trade was a long time ago I'm fairly certain that all front offices now realize that saves and wins are largely overrated. And the trade was Valverde's final arb year for all three of Qualls' arb years. That's not a bad haul for a "proven closer" that prior to the trade had only one season with more than 18 saves.

Oh, you can look up things like blown saves or career saves percentages if you will

Have a look at his game log this year alone: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7381/gamelog

Warning: NSFW

Anybody else see Freddy Sanchez run the bases on that inside the park? His little legs were pumping up and down fast, his tongue hanging out of his mouth as he rounded third, his eyes like a deer caught in headlights as he neared the plate, and he even managed a little slide.

It was the most work Sanchez had done in one game all year. Too bad his teammates didn't mob him.