This is crazy talk. I cannot believe the Dbacks will decide to NOT offer Dunn arbitration.

Agreed. Even if the D-backs don't want him, they can trade him and get a good return.

While there likely is still a market for a player who has hit at least 40 homers in each of the last five seasons

OK, the economy isn't doing so hot, but this isn't the apocalypse, for crying out loud. There will still be baseball next year, and teams will still want to win. Dunn is one of the absolute premier free agents, and will get paid as such.

While I think they will end up offering him arbitration, it's not a no-brainer, if the DBacks budget is as tight as rumored. Keeping him would likely mean having to dump somebody else, or leave multiple holes unfilled. And what teams are going to want to trade for him at full arbitration cost, and give up anything of value? Probably not the Dodgers. Not the A's. Not the Red Sox. Detroit is probably out.

The Mets might, maybe the Yankees if they don't get Teixeira or Manny. I don't see the Angels pursuing him. A lot of teams are just not going to want to give up anything of substance to pay him $15-18 million for poor defense and a lot of strikeouts. Yes, I know he's a good player overall - but I just don't see him fetching a lot in trade if he accepts arbitration, with some chance of no team being willing to bite. And in the meantime, if he is offered arbitration the Dbacks will have to factor his potential salary into their plans.

Remember, this is the team that wasn't willing to only cut Randy Johnson's pay in half, and that laid off a large amount of their off-field personnel already this offseason. Money is tighter than we expected for them - and that may be the case for more teams than are expected.

Adding to the risk is that there are several (roughly) similar players also on the market -- Manny, Burrell, Giambi, Abreu, Bradley, Ibanez, Dye (via trade) -- and Swisher, Holliday, Willingham and Jacobs (the worst of the bunch by far) have already been moved. (I know, Holliday is not defensively-challenged, neither is Swisher at least in a corner.)

Also, the D-Backs are in the "tough" spot that they don't have any really high-priced players to dump if they do end up with an "expensive" Dunn for one year. They're stuck with Byrnes obviously (or at least would have to eat a good chunk of the salary). After that, Doug Davis ($8.75 M) seems to be the 2nd most expensive D-Back for 2009 (Haren doesn't start making real money until 2011).

Diminishing the risk is that Dunn would have to decide very quickly whether to accept arb.

And where there's risk there's also opportunity. Even if the economy was fine, it would be a buyer's market for defensively-challenged hitters this offseason because of the supply. If Dunn truly does like it there and if the market is down substantially, the D-Backs should make him an offer they can afford ... maybe heavily backloaded although that's bitten them in the butt before.

The D-backs are earning their crappy local support.

made right decision on Johnson, probably, like Schilling, expecting dl time to offer to take pay cut
and Dunn, prudent to not offer arb..fine player but redundant

And what teams are going to want to trade for him at full arbitration cost, and give up anything of value?

Why do the D-backs need to get anything back?

If they offer arbitration and the worst-case scenario is that Dunn accepts and they promptly dump his contract on some other team with nothing in return, they'd wind up in the same position as they would have been if they had refused to offer arbitration. So why not offer it?

Now, of course, if you think that there's a chance that Adam Dunn on a one year, $16M (or whatever) deal is unmarketable and they'd have to actually pay someone (with talent or cash) to move him, then there's an argument for not offering arbitration. I find that hard to believe, however.

Johnson is a pitcher you let go. He is at the bitter end of his career and not cheap. But Dunn is a keeper. He isn't redundant in any respect, save for the strikeouts. They have no power hitters of his quality on this team, and he adds a ton of on-base skills. I just don't get the lack of interest in Dunn and Burrell. These guys are human metronomes. You know exactly what you will get over the next couple of years. And what you will get is pretty damned good.

You know exactly what you will get over the next couple of years.

True. But what you get is good offense and bad defense at a premium price. And you have good reason to think you'll get that over the next 2-3 years but you probably have to sign them for 4-6 years and that future is much murkier for players of this type. And as I noted, there are 5+ fairly similar players on the market and it's not easy to assess the risks/benefits of each. When you bring the likely money and years attached to each of those names into the discussion, I'm not sure which of those guys I'd prefer.

You know, I should say that I agree the D-Backs should offer him arb. The risks don't outweigh the benefits IMO.

Its two other free agents, Tony Clark and David Eckstein, are not affected because they are not Type A or B free agents.

What? David Eckstein's NOT a Type A or B? Ridiculous... that guy's a winner!

And these D-Back decisions don't seem too hard. Offer Cruz, Dunn, and Hudson. Hudson will obviously decline and lead to picks. Cruz, as stated will either be cheap (by Jeremy Affeldt standards, apparently considered "prudent") relief help that can be traded if the D-Backs fall out of contention or helpful in a playoff run. Dunn is the wild card, but neither option is terrible: if he declines, Arizona gets 2 picks when he signs somewhere else. If he accepts, as the article states, he's either a short-term risk or a tradeable piece. They obviously decided that they could live with the "three true outcomes" player that Dunn has been billed as when they acquired him last year.

Not offering arb to Lyon will be one of those moves that D-Back fans will hate, but will benefit the club in the end. They may even get him back cheap after all 600 late-inning relievers finally sign and Lyon is still unemployed in March.

$7 million for one season doesn't seem like an outrageous price for Johnson. When healthy, he's still, at worst, a quality 4-5 starter, even if he matches his worst ERA+ since 1989 (90 in 2006 when he won 17 for the Yankees). 30 starts again is a ridiculous expectation; 18 sounds about right, giving him a great chance to get win #300, which would be a HUGE boost for a team with awful support and no national exposure. Why is everyone so down on the Big Unit on a one-year leash?

I'm not down on Johnson. But the Dbacks apparently were only willing to offer him $3 million - which is why I think their budget is tighter than they're letting on - which is why they are having a hard time deciding on offering Dunn arbitration. Obviously they want the picks - but his accepting would scramble their offseason. It's easy for us to say they should offer it - but the Dbacks obviously have a fairly tight budget, and the GM has to live within that.

Dbacks decline arbitration on Adam Dunn, Randy Johnson
Offer arbitration on Orlando Hudson (Type A), Juan Cruz (A) and Brandon Lyon (B)

Not offering arb to Lyon will be one of those moves that D-Back fans will hate

Not this fan.
I wrote this on the Dbacks message board, and I'll copy it here

Obviously, the Dbacks were afraid there was a real chance Dunn would accept arbitration. My understanding is that if Dunn accepts arb, the Dbacks cannot trade him before June 15th without his consent. De facto, Dunn would have a full no trade clause through June 15th, and the Dbacks may very well fail to find a place he wants to go to -- so then they would have to accept Dunn back next year with a contract of at least $15m.

What are the chances that Dunn accepts arbitration? Surprisingly high, the more I think about it. Here's a look at all the 1b/of types who are Dunn's direct competitors this year (omitting the dregs)

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2002/02/2008-09-free-agents.html

1b
Nomar Garciaparra LAD
Jason Giambi * NYY
Kevin Millar BAL
Richie Sexson NYY
Mark Teixeira LAA
Frank Thomas OAK

of
Bobby Abreu NYY
Moises Alou NYM
Garret Anderson * LAA
Rocco Baldelli TB
Milton Bradley TEX
Pat Burrell PHI
Endy Chavez NYM
Adam Dunn ARZ
Jim Edmonds CHC
Cliff Floyd TB
Ken Griffey Jr. * CWS
Raul Ibanez SEA
Mark Kotsay ATL
Manny Ramirez LAD
Juan Rivera LAA


Guys in bold are guys I consider real competition to Dunn in the free agent market. Now, some of them (Manny, Teixeira) are better than Dunn, obviously. But others (Giambi, Burrell, Ibanez, Abreu, Bradley) would be very attractive alternatives to Dunn to a lot of teams. And then you have guys who'd come a lot cheaper than Dunn but could give you solid production, like Rivera, Floyd, Anderson... and then you have guys who'll play for food but have a name, like Nomar, Griffey, Thomas, Alou, Millar, Sexson.

It's a tough place out there all of a sudden. Now, accepting arbitration isn't a great option for someone like Dunn, who came into free agency hoping to cash in, but owners seem to be really skittish all of a sudden. And I think the Dbacks were really worried that Dunn would decide to take the sure thing and return to AZ for one year, and collect $15m. How real is the possibility, I don't know. But if Dunn came back with a full no trade clause through June 15 and asked for 18-20m in arbitration, the Dbacks would be royally screwed. So they decided the risk wasn't worth it

Now, Lyon is interesting. I would've thought he was/is more likely to accept arb than Dunn. And I still think there's a chance he accepts. But the Dbacks must feel they could negotiate with him and fit him in their budget (say, give him a 2 year deal at $3m or so) which would still leave them 6-7m of budget room to play with this year. And I'm guessing the team wants to sign a veteran reliever this year anyhow, so if it ends up that Lyon comes back, the team will take him. It's a lot easier to fit Lyon in the $10m budget for this year than it would be to fit Dunn. And if Lyon declines arbitration, then the Dbacks get one pick, instead of two (Dunn).

I don't know if my thinking is anything close to what really transpired in the front office, but at least to me, this makes some sense. Who knows what the real reasons behind the decisions were, however. Maybe Bob Melvin threatened to quit if the Dbacks didn't bring back Lyon--and in that case, maybe the Dbacks should've called his bluff...

Steve Gilbert's article

When they traded for Dunn in July, one of their rationales in giving up young talent for the free-agent-to-be was the Draft compensation they would receive should he depart. However, after assessing the market so far this offseason, the D-backs decided they could not take the risk that Dunn would accept arbitration and better his $13 million he made last year.

"That was a premise of the deal," Arizona GM Josh Byrnes said in regards to getting a pair of draft picks. "The chances at that time were very good, but quite a few things have changed. I think it's fair to say it's maybe a little different situation than we anticipated. The poor economy has affected some things."

Ironically, the decision to not offer Dunn arbitration probably enhances his chances on the open market since the team that signs him will not have to give up a high Draft pick....

Don't understand this move from the Snakes at all.
Unless the team's finances are leaking oil at an alarming rate.
That would make at least three NL West teams (D-Backs, Dodgers, Padres) to be suffering financially.
Anyone know how the Rox and Giants are doing?

Anyone know how the Rox and Giants are doing?

Won't know until they sign Sabathia and Teixeira, respectively.
I agree the Dbacks seem to be going into severe payroll reduction mode.
Now I wonder if they'll even try to extend Webb this offseason...

With Arizona at the epicenter of the horrendous deflation of the housing wealth bubble, on top of everything else, I can see where the Dbacks would have roughly no sponsorship income this year from the usual cornerstones of the local economy, as well as not expecting very lucrative revenue from fans in the coming year.

Webbie will make a fine Yankee.
Or Red Sock.

With Arizona at the epicenter of the horrendous deflation of the housing wealth bubble

Ditto for Southern Cal...

Webbie will make a fine Yankee.
Or Red Sock.

Or a member of the [insert name of favorite team]

Webbie will be a fine member of the 2012 NL Champion Pirates, tutoring all those young Indian and South African and Colombian and Belarussian hotshots.

All those foreigners speaking with a Kentucky accent - awesome.

I like this, since two more players the Dodgers could pursue - Johnson and Dunn - won't require draft pick compensation. They might not get either, but the more questionable but slugging outfielders and at times good but otherwise questionable starters available, the easier it will be for them to pick up what they need to fill holes.