That signing will work out well. There is no way he will revert to his 8 year track record of suckitude.

hahahaha

that bowden, such a kidder

The final piece of the puzzle.

Guzman only has a 6 year track record of suckitude. Compare that to his 3 seasons of being good. And two of those three seasons are 2007 and 2008!

This team sucks. Where's Royce Clayton when you need him?

It might help if you changed your name to "Royce Clayton Rings Heath's Bell". Or "Royce Clayton Forrester".

This team sucks. Where's Royce Clayton when you need him?

His Wikipedia page ends with:
Although inactive for the World Series, Clayton finally earned his first World Series ring when the Red Sox swept the Colorado Rockies in the 2007 World Series.

It was truly an Elwayesque moment.

Guzman only has a 6 year track record of suckitude. Compare that to his 3 seasons of being good. And two of those three seasons are 2007 and 2008!

If you want to be generous, he did have LASIK surgery before the season (or last season, I forget).

Bill James recently wrote on his site that Guzman's career turned around after he had Lasik surgery (although Bill kept calling it "lasix"). If that's true, this might be a good signing.

This is the second time the Nats have extended a player who is playing well for them that they should have really just let leave. Young last season, Guzman this season.

Bill James recently wrote on his site that Guzman's career turned around after he had Lasik surgery (although Bill kept calling it "lasix"). If that's true, this might be a good signing.

If this is true, than the situation is different.

I was unaware of the LASIK surgery. This could be a good move, definitely.

If you want to be generous, he did have LASIK surgery before the season (or last season, I forget).

Before last season. And immediately began slapping the ball around with alarming authority.

The money is too much (actually, if he puts up this year's numbers again, then it's a good deal...but I'm scared just like everyone else). But 2007-2008 Guzman is not the sh*tty Guzman of 2005. Apparently all he needed was to be healthy and not be blind.

LASIK is the new market inefficiency.

This is the second time the Nats have extended a player who is playing well for them that they should have really just let leave. Young last season, Guzman this season.

Third. Ronnie Belliard, last season.

Belliard was a good signing. Young, not so much.

belliard signed a 2y/3.5 million dollar contract. That's nothing for a guy who isn't a horrible option as a starter.

It's $4M a year for two years. How badly could it possibly turn out?

Also to consider: If they saved that money until the offseason, could they have found another starting shortstop worth having for that much?

No, $8M a year for two years.

This signing of Guzman for $8M/yr for 2 years leaves me scratching my head. Does anyone know what kind of players they could have gotten in trading Guzman? Wouldn't it be better to let him walk and take the draft picks? The Nats need to stockpile as much young talent as they can get now, so they can become somewhat competitive in the next 5 years. They should have let some player earning the minimum keep the position warm till they are ready to make a run.

leads the National League in hits (129) and at-bats (416)

Funny how that works.

This signing of Guzman for $8M/yr for 2 years leaves me scratching my head. Does anyone know what kind of players they could have gotten in trading Guzman? Wouldn't it be better to let him walk and take the draft picks? The Nats need to stockpile as much young talent as they can get now, so they can become somewhat competitive in the next 5 years. They should have let some player earning the minimum keep the position warm till they are ready to make a run.

I don't think they have a single player under contract for the 2010 season other than Guzman and they are going to have a hard time signing free agents the next couple seasons. If they think he's a good player post-surgery, there's nothing wrong with signing him.

The Nationals don't really have anyone else in the system who could reasonably play shortstop in the major leagues next year. Ed Rogers is their AAA shortstop. Ian Desmond at Harrisburg has a .700 OPS. Somebody's got to stand there next year and unless they trade for some young guy, they're not going to have one who would be ready in 2010 either.

No, $8M a year for two years.

Christ. Ignore everything I just said.

I don't think they have a single player under contract for the 2010 season other than Guzman

Kearns ($10M/ $1M buyout) and Young ($6M) have club options for 2010, but they're the only ones.

I actaully twitched a little when I read "2 years $16 million". REALLY?

It's not a terrible move!

Not only did he have the Lasik, but he also had his shoulder repaired -- which had supposedly been bugging him since back in Minnesota.

While PECOTA and Marcel probably think he blows, there's every reason to believe that his talent level has changed, and that we're not seeing some sort of wackyass fluke. He even seems to have changed around his swing a bit. He still slaps the ball, but it's not a lunging wrist-first sort of swing. He occasionally drives the ball, instead of poking at it.

As the others have said, there's nobody in the upper minors. That's why the team blows so much this year. They just don't have the bodies (Thanks, Bud and Omar!) to fill in.

Sure, they could've gotten someone like Alex Cintron for near minimum in the offseason, but then everyone'd just laugh that ol' leatherpants was dumpster diving again.

how is Dimitri Young a bad signing? sure he didn't have a position at the beginning of the season, but with the inevitable injury to Johnson it was only a matter of time, from Dimitri's point of view the signing was a bad idea, should have hooked up with an AL team that can find everyday playing time for him.

Dmitri's signing wasn't bad. Giving him the extension for that money when he was 1) out of shape 2) coming off a career year and 3) unlikely to find too many teams interesting WAS bad.

I guess this move really does depend on how you evaluate Guzman as a player, if he's a league average overall shortstop, then there is no way to knock this. Now what I would like to know numberwise, is what is the average annual salary for a starting postion player, and what is the average for post arbitration average position player. I know that the average player in the mlb makes somewhere in the neighborhood of 3mil+, but that includes a dozen per team making less than mil per.

If you think that Guzman will be average overall or better then 8 mil is about acceptable (maybe a tad high, but certainty may have some value)

If you think he is legitimately as good as he has been this year, then this is unarguably a good deal. I mean a 100 ops+ from a shortstop who is usually considered good defensively.

of course if you think the last 500 or so plate appearances is just hot streak then of course this is a bad deal.

Dmitri's signing wasn't bad. Giving him the extension for that money when he was 1) out of shape 2) coming off a career year and 3) unlikely to find too many teams interesting WAS bad.

how much did he get? I thought it was a fairly tame contract but I could be wrong on that. Anything less than 6mil a year should be considered a good move(provided it's only 2 year guaranteed)

On Dmitri: 2 years, $10 total. With a vesting option that his fatness won't let him reach.

On Dmitri: 2 years, $10 total. With a vesting option that his fatness won't let him reach.
sounds like a solid contract, mind you with Nick Johnsons return it wasn't the smartest for the Nationals to make, but I imagine a lot of smart teams would make that decision.

mind you with Nick Johnsons return it wasn't the smartest for the Nationals to make

Q1: Are you aware where Nick Johnson currently resides?
Q2: Do you not think it was a smart idea to hedge against the extremely likely risk of him taking up this residence?

Q1: Are you aware where Nick Johnson currently resides?
Q2: Do you not think it was a smart idea to hedge against the extremely likely risk of him taking up this residence?

yes, and yes. Remember I'm the one defending the signing, I just don't go all gaga over anything. I probably should have added the word maybe in front of "..it wasn't..."

Chris, you're not really blaming Omar and Bud for the Nationals' lack of depth, are you? That was four years ago! Who traded Maicer Izturis and Juan Rivera for a 2-year rental of Jose Guillen? Armando Galarraga, Scott Downs, Darrell Rasner... None of those guys are superstars, but they were depth, and they'd be helping us now. And all of them were either allowed to just walk away or traded for guys who are not helping us now. If the minors were so awful in 2004 (and they were), who decided to give away 2 draft picks for Vinny Castilla and Cristian Guzman? Who not to blow up the roster and rebuild? Who decided not to trade Chad Cordero or Nick Johnson for prospects? Who decided to use Brad Wilkerson's value to get 1 year of ASor instead of prospects. Yeah, yeah the compensatory picks, but you have to discount for time--we could have gotten a major-league-ready prospect or two for him at his peak value, and now we're waiting... waiting... When you start with very little depth and just a few aging assets, and then spend 2+ years shipping away young, improving players for declining vets and short-term rentals... you lose your right to blame Selig.

sbiel,

None of that comes close to the value that Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee would bring to this team.

Or the value they would've drafted in the intervening years with a real ownership group instead of the signability picks they made, and the others they flew blind on because they didn't have the scouts.

But, yeah, it's entirely Bowden's fault. Hey, maybe someone oughta start a blog on that.

I'd rather have Guzman than Lugo over the next two years. So...that's something.

Wouldn't it be better to let him walk and take the draft picks?

Wouldn't it be better to invest the $8 mil in draft picks each year and let Guzman sign somewhere else?

I think so.

Hey, maybe this makes Guzman a tradeable commodity!

there's every reason to believe that his talent level has changed

Well, there's one reason (LASIK). The shoulder surgery ... unless it was hurt all the way back in 2001, seems this would only (at best) return him to the 78 OPS+ guy he was 2002-2004. Fair enough, you also mentioned a change in batting stroke.

The last season's worth, he's had a BABIP of 340 which is Gwynn-esque and seems unlikely to continue. His ISO this year is right in line with his career numbers (though it was better last year)* and he still doesn't walk. Basically 2007-8 is one season and it's a repeat of his 2001 minus some triples (and plus some singles). So no, I don't put a lot of stock in it continuing.

In fairness, he's cut the K-rate pretty substantially which will help the BA and doesn't seem to have hurt his power, so maybe I should have some faith. OK, I'll guesstimate a 90ish OPS+ going forward. Dial puts him average overall so that's probably a slightly above-average SS ... add in some aging and call him dead average over the next two years.

This is a cheaper deal than Lugo, Cabrera or Renteria. More than Eckstein. Basically the same as Wilson (if his 2010 option is picked up). Those strike me as the reasonable comps so I guess this is about what an average or slightly better SS costs you these days.

I will say that, if he's healthy, he'll give you lots of ABs. :-)

* Granted, it's not a power park so maybe the same ISO reflects increased power. But then he's never been a HR hitter so I'm not sure his power would be all that negatively affected by the park.

Oh wait, they've got a new park. How's it playing? B-R's numbers will be based on old PFs yeah. Maybe that 100 OPS+ isn't as impressive as it looks?

It's hard to get a read on the park because our offense has been so anemic. The anemia, I don't think, is from the park, but from their approach/stroke. Seems like it basically plays fair. I'd bet it'll show up as neutral to slight pitcher's over the next few years.

Fair points about Guzman's abilities. If you watch him regularly, he IS a different hitter than '05. But I think your bottom line is right: basically average. 2/$16 for average works for me, especially given the alternatives.

Sure, it's not going to win them the pennant, but it's not like the team 1) needs the money or 2) would really spend it elsewhere anyway. If they don't sign that one last missing piece (HA!), it's not because of a lack of financial resources brought on by this contract!

Yes, yes, I've done the Bartolo Colon rant myself.

In fact, I once wrote a comment to that effect on Chris's blog, and he said something quite sensible like, "Blaming Selig is old news. A well run team could have put a winner on the field by now." And then I think he called me a fecking moron.

He's getting paid like an average big league starter.

As tough as it is to wrap my mind around it, given years of injury filled suckitude that made him the butt of many jokes, I think he's earned it.

My current projection for him is 282/329/398, and he's at -1 runs on defense. Seems close enough to average, for a shortstop.

And the more I watch this game the more I'm convinced past injuries can't be held against him, unless there's a chronic problem. Someone like Joe Crede with a very bad back, you can downgrade his playing time expectation, but for non-chronic injuries, it's something like this: You can expect a guy who was an ironman in the past to play about 150 games going forward, and a player who's had a multitude of injuries to play maybe 135-140. Not that big a deal, unless again you have a specific reason that some injury will reoccur.

The shoulder surgery ... unless it was hurt all the way back in 2001, seems this would only (at best) return him to the 78 OPS+ guy he was 2002-2004. Fair enough, you also mentioned a change in batting stroke.

Guzman did hurt the shoulder back in 2001, either during the All-Star game or right around the break, and promptly returned to sucking after what had been an outstanding half-season. I don't know if the surgery addressed the original injury, but Guzman was never the same player after it.

Ahem, 2008 All-Star (and despite all the jokes we probably all made beforehand, he earned his spot in the second half of that game) Cristian Guzman.

Good signing.
Shortstop has gone to ####, almost everyteam's going to be looking for one this offseason.
Plus, the Nats are terrible, so they probably don;t have anyhting that Guzzy will block.

Bold perdiction, in three years 3B will suck this bad, so start signing good youngish 3B's to big deals.

the Nats are terrible

This is why I can't make sense of this signing. All they need is a warm body to fill shortstop till they can put a team of young talent out on the field. From my point of view they can sign Guzman for $8M/yr and go out and lose 90 games or they can save that money and lose 95. Use the money for the future, not on some stopgap solution.

This is why I can't make sense of this signing. All they need is a warm body to fill shortstop till they can put a team of young talent out on the field. From my point of view they can sign Guzman for $8M/yr and go out and lose 90 games or they can save that money and lose 95. Use the money for the future, not on some stopgap solution.

I hate to go all MSH on this thread, but I don't think this is necessarily the best way for the Nats to go. The Nats have not drawn well at all, perhaps historically so for a team with a new park. They need fan support in a very real way, and being just a bad team, rather than epically bad, might help.

This is why I can't make sense of this signing. All they need is a warm body to fill shortstop till they can put a team of young talent out on the field.

Great! I agree with you. Now find me the young talent at shorstop in the system. ::waits::

or they can save that money and lose 95. Use the money for the future, not on some stopgap solution.

$ is not the problem with this team. There's diminishing returns with throwing money at prospects anyway. With the $600 million pleasure palace the city built for them, the team has enough money to invest in the farm AND field stopgap solutions.

Now find me the young talent at shorstop in the system. ::waits::

If Smiley Gonzalez isn't ready by 2011, they'll have to find another stopgap. It's probably too much money, but the free agent SS pool next off season is pretty uninspiring.

Although inactive for the World Series, (Royce) Clayton finally earned his first World Series ring when the Red Sox swept the Colorado Rockies in the 2007 World Series.

Only three ringzzz to go, to catch Rudy Guiliani!

Bibi, you are talking sense my man!

Even a bad stopgap is going to cost them $4m next year, unless they want an Angel Berroa type.

It's a gamble, Guz could revert, in which case they're overpaying by about $m for a much needed stopgap, or they could get a all star caliber SS.

Plus what else are they going to spend the $ on?
You have to be mediocre before you can be good.