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It's still an 85-knot category 2 hurricane, with a forecast of being a 110-knot category 3 at landfall. The projected track, which they're still admitting is quite uncertain, shows landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Houston, but they nudged the track a little closer to Houston.
Crispix: the Astrodome is actually the more vulnerable stucture. Among its legends: twice in the 1970's, the parking lot flooded so badly that no one could get in or out. (I think they played one of those games and cancelled the other.) I was living in Houston on one of those dates. Neither one was even a named tropical storm - just a whole lot of rain.
More seriously: although New Orleans is uniquely vulnerable among U.S. cities to flooding caused by storm surge, the second most vunerable major metopolitan area for that is Houston. I'm mostly not talking about Houston itself but about the suburban areas east and southeast of the city, next to the Ship Channel and Galveston Bay. There are a number of areas that are below sea level. (Land subsidence caused by groundwater pumping is the prime culprit.)
That stadium downtown, whatever its current name (note that Crispix used a former name that probably doesn't appear on too may promotional materials), is rather far away from those vunerable low-lying areas.
The last big, strong hurricane to hit the Texas coast with Galveston and Houston on the high-surge right hand side of the storm was Carla in 1961. Carla was a category 5 in mid-Gulf and came ashore as a category 4. Even though it wasn't a direct hit, Galveston really needed its seawall, and some areas inland on Galveston Bay had 20-foot rises in the water level. This one (probably) isn't that strong, but there are a lot more people in the vulnerable areas now.
I don't know how it compares to the areas around Houston but the Tampa Bay area is a major disaster risk if a large hurricane came in from the Gulf. There are areas along the shoreline of the bay that regularly flood during thunderstorms, there is a LOT of land around here that would suffer serious flooding from a big storm surge.
Chicago Sun-Times: Theriot doesn't like Ike, wants out of Houston
\had to be said
Baseball is a business and they are looking after their business. Last year they moved the Cleveland-LA game to Milwaukee (that was fun) and they still had a whole season to play. Getting the games played is probably a lot easier on MLB then postponing them and trying to shoehorn them in somewhere or playing them after the season. Imagine if Houston is a half game back to 1 1/2 games back and they have anywere from 1 to 3 games to play. Then imagine if by winning they are added to a 3 team wild card tie. Imagine when the season ended STL, PHI/NY, and MIL are tied.
Because it won't be just a rainout. It's extremely likely to be three rainouts. These hurricanes last days not hours. They're moving Friday's game up to guarantee one is played. Satuday's and Sunday's games are all but cancelled right now.
The large size of the Ike will play a role in making the storm surge worse than for a typical category 2 or 3 storm - potentially as bad as a cat 5. There's a good discussion of it at Jeff Masters' blog at Weather Underground, if anyone is interested.
Houston Chronicle:
The Cubs might not be able to get away from this thing; it also looks like it's quite likely to be dumping rain on Chicago during the CHI/MIL series.
In related news, the Texans are moving their Sunday game to Monday:
Houston Chronicle
Yeah. He was a few miles from my home during Wilma in 2005 and I got a couple of feet of salt water in my yard.
They could play a game with no fans allowed in the stadium, like the Iowa Cubs did during the big floods this year. That would lose the Astros some money, but so would the other alternative they mentioned, cancelling one of the games unless it's needed to decide a playoff spot.
When we got that all-day rain last week from the remnants of Gustav, Tom Skilling wrote that this was the 15th time since 1900 that remnants of a hurricane have hit Chicago. About every 7 years. This'll make 2 in 2 weeks.
Jeeze, is he still around? How about Jim Tilmon?
Geez, I remember when he did weather reports with Albert the Alley Cat* in Milwaukee (channel 6) waaaay back when. Was a UW grad, I think.
* yes, weather reports were delivered alongside a puppet for a number of years on WITI
Jeeze, is he still around?
Of course. He's the Skilling you can trust.
Otherwise, this storm would be wrecking the schedules of a number of the NL Central/playoff contenders.
Loretta (a player rep going back to his Brewer days) kind of hinted at it in the Houston Chronicle article, and Phil Rogers made note of that in his Chicago Tribune column, too:
Assuming this is a serious post--please, lose the conspiracy-victim complex.
Or the storm could go further left, which would be bad. Hard to tell what it's doing from the satellite images.
Apparently in 83 for Alicia the roofs downtown had gravel tops, so the tall buildings all became pellet guns. D'oh! As long as the only thing in my windows friday night and Saturday is my cats, I'll be happy.
I thought just a few days ago Ike's deal was that it was small in diameter but was very compact and powerful?
Not directly related to the Astros, but in the same article:The former Oilers QB? (I suppose there can't be too many other guys named Oliver Luck kicking around Texas)
There are probably going to be widespread rainout effects from this across the eastern US as well, involving contending teams. The current NOAA cone places Ike over western Ohio on Monday AM, still as a tropical depression. Then it is forecast to head due east. Ike may wreak havoc on the schedule into the middle of next week. It should be past Chicago by the time the Brewers series starts on Tuesday though (inasmuch as one can predict what a storm of this size is going to do once it hits land).
Of course, Katrina was a strong Cat 4 hurricane as it approached, and this advisory was mostly about the wind effects (which turned out not to be as bad in NO as described here). Ike is a Cat 2 and has had trouble getting his act together with regard to strengthening. The expected problem with Ike is flooding: huge surge, currently forecast landfall just southwest of Galveston, huge amounts of rain.
Rick Peterson can fix this problem in 10 minutes.
Link will only be relevant for a short time.
photo
Of the news channels' 5:00 PM programming, MSNBC seems to be the ones going all Ike/all the time right now.
I'm not suggesting Ike's going to be as destructive as Katrina was (or even comparing Ike to Katrina at all, really)--I mentioned the advisory only because I was shocked (before the storm even hit land) at how alarming the advisory language used was (i.e., "human suffering will be incredible by modern standards"). And that language turned out to be tragically prescient. So when I see stuff like "certain death" in a weather advisory, I can't help but think of that.
Given how much of the country has rain in the forecast this weekend, there might be more scheduling headaches coming up.
EDIT: The STL/PIT, MIN/BAL, ATL/NYM, TB/NYY and TOR/BOS games are all in rain delays. Heh.
Heh, my point I guess is that actually could be comparable to Katrina, because the wind damage isn't going to be that catastrophic, but the flooding just might be. The Katrina advisory got the human suffering part right, but (mostly) for the wrong reasons.
He's now on doing it again. Should I feel bad for rooting for the nearby waves when he's down there? :P
Twenty games total.
Holy baseball!
I'm enjoying watching the TV announcers make fun of and laugh and ridicule all the people who stayed behind...where they are.
On Fox, Geraldo's hating life right about now, it appears.
Haha, just switched. He's standing in 120MPH winds now.
"The Balinese Room, made famous by ZZ Top with a song on their LOLLAPALOOZA album"
Umm, yeah, that was always my favorite ZZ Top album :P
(Lollapalooza, Fandango... close enough)
He's been out there since 3PM yesterday afternoon, too? Yikes.
Playing a game in Round Rock would be odd. It's only 30 minutes closer by car (negligible by air) than TBiA, and while a very nice one, it is still a minor league stadium.
He's like the third or fourth reporter in Galveston on different networks saying the backside of the storm is worse than the frontside was. Surge isn't as bad as expected, but wind is worse.
EDIT: Crap, he's sort of inside the hotel and he almost got taken out by a piece of debris live.
The same is true in Florida. Here, a mandatory evacuation means that if you stay, at a certain point there will be no emergency services, no police, fire, medical, etc. If you have a heart attack or your wife goes into labor, you're on your own. It also means that at a certain point you may not leave your house and are essentially under house arrest.
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