i hope this puts an end to the talk of giving the cy to frankie rodriguez

i hope this puts an end to the talk of giving the cy to frankie rodriguez

It should.

Unfortunately I feel like I've heard almost as much MVP talk for K-Rod.

Unfortunately I feel like I've heard almost as much MVP talk for K-Rod.

He would probably be the worst MVP in my memory.

He would be a terrible pick for CLOSER of the year.

Some-- though, weirdly, not all-- voters will find it impossible to give Cliff Lee the Cy Young and Rodriguez the MVP. And I'm pretty sure they'll give the Cy to Lee. So I think that will leave the MVP open to a position player. If Cliff Lee hadn't won so many games, I think K-Rod would have a pretty good shot at both awards.

Cliff, if you are reading this- congratulations!

I think the top two candidates for the MVP (in the alternate universe where it's chosen based on merit instead of narrative) are both Indians. What a weird season for them.

I'm personally hoping for a Sabathia/Lee Cy Young sweep.

How about if Indians players win the MVP in both leagues?

Can anyone point me to analysis or interviews that explain Cliff Lee's recent success & if he can sustain it? Based on this year's results I'd say he turned the corner. Is this the biggest turnaround ever? Just curious...

Is this the biggest turnaround ever? Just curious...

Halladay (2000) - 67.7 IP, 10.64 ERA (Highest ever for a season with 50 or more IP), 48 EPA+ 44/42 K/BB, 14 HR
Halladay (2001) - 105.3 IP, 3.16 ERA, 146 ERA+, 96/25 K/BB, 3 HR

Lee's turnaround has been stunning, so I guess it's really dependent on the weighting of playing time.

When Halladay's 2000 began, he was less than 200 innings into his big-league career, and the first ~170 were pretty good. Cliff Lee had been a disappointment for 2 full seasons, covering almost 300 innings ranging in quality from slightly below average to total crap, coming into 2008 since he showed a glimmer of promise in '05, culminating with a demotion to AAA last season and no expectation of even a rotation spot when spring training began.

The example that leapt to my mind was Chris Carpenter from 02-04 except Lee doesn't have the convenient injury & year-long rehab (wherein he spent every day watching Rookie of the Year and taking its lessons truly to heart) to point to as reasons for his renaissance.

Cliff Lee shouldn't just get the Cy (with Halladay being the runner-up), but he should be in contention for the MVP. He won't win the MVP -- it just won't happen for a starting pitcher on a losing team -- but in terms of value for the season, Lee may not rank up there with Sizemore, but he is up there with second-tier candidates like Morneau, Youkilis, etc.

To me the question is not whether Lee gets the Cy Young, but will the voters realize he's got a pretty commanding lead over Frankie and all the position players for the MVP race?

As for what has Lee done differently and can he sustain it, the biggest difference is his control this year.

I will submit that it is possible for a slightly above average pitcher to have a year like this purely by random chance, and then go back to being just a slightly above average pitcher. In the case of Don Law, a simulation league pitcher, there are no other factors to explain the Cy Young year except random chance.

As for Lee vs. Sizemore, Chris Dial ran the offense + defense numbers and had Grady 44 runs above average. Cliff Lee had at the time allowed 53 fewer runs than a league average pitcher with his innings.

Has anybody ever posted this kind of winning percentage for a losing team before? 21-2 for a 69-72 team seems incredible; the Indians are 48-70 when Lee doesn't start.

(EDIT: That's wrong and dumb, of course; they're 48-70 in Lee's no decisions, most of which have been losses for the Indians.)

There is always Carlton going 27-10 in 1972 while the Phillies went 32-87 in other games. Not exactly what you are asking for, but a huge .460 (.729 to .269) jump in win ptg. Lee's is .506 (.913 to 407).

Cliff currently has the 6th best single season winning ptg ever:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WLp_season.shtml

Face posted a .947 for a .506 team.

Ahead of him are two relievers, a part-time guy and two guys from baseball's Stone Age, one of whom was really pitching in a minor league (Union Association 1884). He's effectively #1 on the list if he takes no more decisions the rest of the year... and he pitches for a losing team. That's unbelievable.

Ahead of him are two relievers, a part-time guy and two guys from baseball's Stone Age, one of whom was really pitching in a minor league (Union Association 1884). He's effectively #1 on the list if he takes no more decisions the rest of the year... and he pitches for a losing team. That's unbelievable.

If I read Retrosheet right, Allen had no relief victories that year, so his 15-1 was legit w.r.t. Lee. (Also I think Allen was 15-0 until the very last game of the season which he lost 1-0. But I might be making a misinterpretation somehow, this is just a quick check.)

Both Sheehan at BP and Battersbox have produced interesting articles which show how scheduling has given Lee a huge advantage in the quality of teams he has faced, as compared to Roy Halladay. Not that I expect those who vote for the Cy Young to look past the shiny wins.

Lee a huge advantage in the quality of teams he has faced, as compared to Roy Halladay. Not that I expect those who vote for the Cy Young to look past the shiny wins.

I hope they don't look so far past the shiny wins that they miss the fact Lee has pitched better even considering quality of opposition.

Lee's opponents score 4.58 runs per game, and Lee has been 49 runs better than average against them. Halladay's opponents are tougher, scoring 4.81 runs, and he's an excellent 42 runs better than them.