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Wednesday, April 02, 2008

MLB.com: Soriano to move back atop lineup

It only took two games for Lou Piniella to change his mind and put Alfonso Soriano back on top of the Cubs’ lineup.

Piniella said Soriano will lead off on Thursday in the Cubs’ series finale against the Milwaukee Brewers. Soriano is 0-for-9 with three strikeouts so far. Last season, when he led off, the Cubs went 69-56.
...
Was [Derrek] Lee surprised by the move? “I guess I shouldn’t be,” Lee said, chuckling. “Lou likes to shuffle things around.”
...
Piniella said it wasn’t just Wednesday’s game that prompted him to change his mind and flip-flop Soriano with Ryan Theriot.

“It’s something I’ve been thinking about since the end of Spring Training, and we’ll go with it,” Piniella said. “Soriano is running better. We’ll put him in the leadoff hole, where he’s more comfortable, and let him hit there.”

NTNgod Posted: April 02, 2008 at 09:49 PM | 12 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralChi Cubs

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   1. Rich Posted: April 02, 2008 at 10:05 PM (#2728730)
His career OBP is .327. Just sayin'.
   2. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 02, 2008 at 10:17 PM (#2728740)
Soriano is on record that he's more comfortable batting leadoff and his career numbers support this - he's got better OPS in the #1 lineup position, when leading off an inning, and with the bases empty. So, as far as I'm concerned, from that perspective, this is fine.

Having said that, though, this was something that Piniella apparently put a lot of thought into. It was a recurring theme of spring training - where will Soriano bat, where will Fukudome bat, where will Theriot bat? The fact that, after all of that thought, Piniella comes out and changes his mind after two games - I don't know, I'm not impressed. As I said, I'm okay with the end result (with respect to Soriano - Theriot should be hitting either 7th or 8th - I'd go w/ 8th, with Pie 7th) but it seems like either Piniella out-thought himself in spring training or he's out-thinking himself now.
   3. Rich Posted: April 02, 2008 at 10:24 PM (#2728749)
There was a time when Soriano was more comfortable at 2B and resisted the move to LF. I think he can adjust to batting 4th or 5th as well.
   4. Bunny Vincennes Posted: April 02, 2008 at 10:27 PM (#2728751)
Ive never seen a player of Soriano's caliber consistently look awful with runners on base. And his defense has sucked in the first two games also.
   5. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 02, 2008 at 10:32 PM (#2728753)
I think he can adjust to batting 4th or 5th as well.


Which would be a good argument (really, I'm not being snarky) if Soriano had batted 4th or 5th the last two games. But Piniella had him batting 2nd, which, to be honest, never made a lot of sense to me. Besides, his replacement in the leadoff spot these last two games was Ryan Theriot, who put up a .326 OBP in his only full major-league season.

I see the argument for moving Soriano down in the lineup. But if you're going to do it, then (a) move him down to 4 or 5 like you suggest, (b) leave him there for more than two freakin' games, and (c) put somebody with an above-average OBP (Fukudome, Lee, DeRosa?) in the leadoff slot.
   6. Rich Posted: April 02, 2008 at 10:54 PM (#2728771)
Soriano:

2005-2007

RISP: .237/.339/.466/.805
Runners on: .255/.327/.505/.832

His AVG and OPS definitely take a hit in those situations. So I'll concede the point. I would think he could improve over time though.
   7. CFiJ Posted: April 02, 2008 at 10:59 PM (#2728773)
but it seems like either Piniella out-thought himself in spring training or he's out-thinking himself now.


It's easy to draw a line between spring training and the real games, but it's probable that Piniella's thought process on this crosses over both. His decision now may well be an extension of what he's seen in spring and in the last few games. And the thought process may very well be ongoing.
   8. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 02, 2008 at 11:27 PM (#2728790)
For what we've seen in studies about lineup construction not making all that much of a difference in run scoring, I'd prefer to see him put in a slot where he is comfortable and produces. Leadoff seems to be that slot.
   9. The Joe Mauer Power Hour (kj) Posted: April 02, 2008 at 11:42 PM (#2728799)
For what we've seen in studies about lineup construction not making all that much of a difference in run scoring, I'd prefer to see him put in a slot where he is comfortable and produces. Leadoff seems to be that slot.

Normally I'd agree, but I think the leadoff spot is a different animal. The difference between 3rd and 4th or 4th and 5th or 3rd and 5th or whatever isn't such a big deal, since if you think about it, it's not ridiculous to believe that, no matter which spot you take in the middle of the order, the chances of having runners on aren't going to be outrageously different. However, putting a slugger in the leadoff spot absolutely guarantees that about 20% of his plate appearances will be with nobody on at all, no matter what. That's huge if you're dealing with a guy who hits 35 homers a year.

Note: I don't know if the numbers support what I said. If they don't, I will be happy to shut up.
   10. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 03, 2008 at 12:18 AM (#2728812)
He would have fewer baserunners, but would theoretically perform better AND gain 36 or 54 plate appearances over the year (if using the standard 18 PA per slot in the batting order). I think those two combined outweigh the differences in baserunner opportunities. Gaining those PAs over someone like Theriot is a big plus.
   11. Justin T Posted: April 03, 2008 at 12:30 AM (#2728816)
Besides, as a leadoff man, every time a pitcher tries to start a game with a fastball over the plate, he gets a free homer.
   12. Dag Nabbit Posted: April 03, 2008 at 12:31 AM (#2728817)
Well, I got my copy of the book here, let's see what it says about line-ups that might apply . . . .

- Put your best hitters in the 1, 2, & 4 slots. Put your next best hitters in the 3 & 5 slots.

- Don't worry about strikeout when filling out your line up.

- Put a basestealer in front of a single hitter who doesn't whiff often.

- Frequency a person hits into (or avoids hitting into) doubleplays is a key consideration for NL leadoff hitters. (Huh. No, I can't explain. Maybe someone whose read the math parts can come around and do that).

Me? I only read the bits in the boxes of The Book.
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