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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Wednesday, April 02, 2008MLB.com: Soriano to move back atop lineup
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Having said that, though, this was something that Piniella apparently put a lot of thought into. It was a recurring theme of spring training - where will Soriano bat, where will Fukudome bat, where will Theriot bat? The fact that, after all of that thought, Piniella comes out and changes his mind after two games - I don't know, I'm not impressed. As I said, I'm okay with the end result (with respect to Soriano - Theriot should be hitting either 7th or 8th - I'd go w/ 8th, with Pie 7th) but it seems like either Piniella out-thought himself in spring training or he's out-thinking himself now.
Which would be a good argument (really, I'm not being snarky) if Soriano had batted 4th or 5th the last two games. But Piniella had him batting 2nd, which, to be honest, never made a lot of sense to me. Besides, his replacement in the leadoff spot these last two games was Ryan Theriot, who put up a .326 OBP in his only full major-league season.
I see the argument for moving Soriano down in the lineup. But if you're going to do it, then (a) move him down to 4 or 5 like you suggest, (b) leave him there for more than two freakin' games, and (c) put somebody with an above-average OBP (Fukudome, Lee, DeRosa?) in the leadoff slot.
2005-2007
RISP: .237/.339/.466/.805
Runners on: .255/.327/.505/.832
His AVG and OPS definitely take a hit in those situations. So I'll concede the point. I would think he could improve over time though.
It's easy to draw a line between spring training and the real games, but it's probable that Piniella's thought process on this crosses over both. His decision now may well be an extension of what he's seen in spring and in the last few games. And the thought process may very well be ongoing.
Normally I'd agree, but I think the leadoff spot is a different animal. The difference between 3rd and 4th or 4th and 5th or 3rd and 5th or whatever isn't such a big deal, since if you think about it, it's not ridiculous to believe that, no matter which spot you take in the middle of the order, the chances of having runners on aren't going to be outrageously different. However, putting a slugger in the leadoff spot absolutely guarantees that about 20% of his plate appearances will be with nobody on at all, no matter what. That's huge if you're dealing with a guy who hits 35 homers a year.
Note: I don't know if the numbers support what I said. If they don't, I will be happy to shut up.
- Put your best hitters in the 1, 2, & 4 slots. Put your next best hitters in the 3 & 5 slots.
- Don't worry about strikeout when filling out your line up.
- Put a basestealer in front of a single hitter who doesn't whiff often.
- Frequency a person hits into (or avoids hitting into) doubleplays is a key consideration for NL leadoff hitters. (Huh. No, I can't explain. Maybe someone whose read the math parts can come around and do that).
Me? I only read the bits in the boxes of The Book.
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