Dice-K could win the Cy Young if Lee falters in September.

Which is amazing, because I've watched almost every one of his starts and he's pitched like #### most of the season. Maybe it's just that it drives me nuts to watch him, but I swear he's been awful.

Houdini

Dice-K could win the Cy Young if Lee falters in September.
--------------------
Which is amazing, because I've watched almost every one of his starts and he's pitched like #### most of the season.

How ironic. I've barely seen him this season, but he's on my fantasy team so I'm very aware of how all his starts seem to be struggles. So if he finishes high in the CYA voting, isn't that an example of voters just following the STATS, and not getting out of their basements to WATCH any games? These people, who think they're such brilliant observers of the game, picking a guy because of a gaudy W-L record and good ERA. Yet if any had watched him consistently it seems doubtful they could consider him one of the best 3 pitchers in the league this season.

Great game by Dice. Best I've seen him in a while.


The exciting part of this is that Bowden will start Saturday. Sure beats Pauley!

I'm with #2. I haven't seen a great deal of Dice-K this year, but when I have, he's been a nibbler who tends to get into jams and then Russ Ortiz his way out of them.

What's wrong with Pauley? I thought that you guys liked him (but I failed once again at my New Year's resolution to follow the Red Sox minor leaguers. I'm really a terrible fan.)

Hard to imagine the writers giving the Cy to a starter who's got a decent chance of not even logging enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, but weirder things have happened.

Dice-K could win the Cy Young if Lee falters in September.

I don't think he's got a real shot, unless he continues to go ~8 innings every start from here on out. Evan then, he'd be well short of 200 innings, which would be a tough sell to most voters.

I think if Lee falters, it defaults to Doc.

I think if Lee falters, it defaults to Doc.

I'd certainly vote for Doc before Dice-K. Lester too, probably.

What's wrong with Pauley? I thought that you guys liked him

nothing's wrong with pauley, but bowden's the top pitching prospect in the org now that masterson and buchholz have graduated. he's 21 years old and pitching well in AAA, so that's kind of impressive..

The thing with Dice K is that while can he be excruciating to watch, his hit rate is ridiculously low this season, 107 hits in 140 IP. It seems to me that he'd rather walk a guy than give up a hit to him, which makes for long games and quick exits but seems to work for him. It's not an approach I'd ever advise a young pitcher to take, but maybe Dice figures it's hard for batters to drive in runs when they walk, so he'll risk it.

Last night he was studly. Only 2 BBs and 2 hits allowed. It's amazing to think he's 16-2 with a 2.82 ERA and yet no one seemed to have been talking about him much this year with Lester's emergence and Beckett's health issues grabbing the attention.

It's amazing to think he's 16-2 with a 2.82 ERA and yet no one seemed to have been talking about him much this year with Lester's emergence and Beckett's health issues grabbing the attention.

Well, as Red Sox fans say, 16-2 and a 2.82 ERA (160 ERA+) is "pitching like ####."

CFiJ,

Did you see Dice in Japan much? Did his command look as awful as it does now? I recall that the scouting on him said that he actually had very good command of several pitches, but that's not what I see when he's on the mound. Perhaps it's the bigger baseball?

Fuzzy in-passing quotes from Michael Kay - Al Leiter last week...

Kay..."If you look at the numbers, really, really look at the numbers...Dice-K has been awful this year."

Leiter..."Yea, pretty much so."

Whether Dice-K great or lucky, the Red Sox are lucky to have him, since right now Carl Pavano may be more valuable going forward than Josh Beckett.

I haven't seen a great deal of Dice-K this year, but when I have, he's been a nibbler who tends to get into jams

When I read "nibbler who tends to get into jams," I think of a guy with marginal stuff who tries to survive by making the perfect pitch on the corners, and then winds up either walking everyone or getting clobbered if he misses within the zone. I'm thinking of the Mike Mussina of 2007, before he seemed to accept that his fast ball was history and learned to adjust for it.

But since Dice-K doesn't exactly have marginal stuff, isn't it possible that he's trying to get the good hitters to swing at bad pitches, and if that fails, he accepts the walk and then attacks the lesser batter? IOW an intelligent strategy based on percentages rather than a makeshift tactic based on a lack of confidence. In any case, it's hard to argue with the results.

Not saying that this is necessarily the case, since I haven't seen him pitch all that much. But unlike some of you, when it's this late in the year I have a hard time writing off a sub-3.00 ERA as having much to do with luck. His only weakness---and it shouldn't be discounted---is his lack of innings (fewer than 6 innings a start) and the stress that this puts on the bullpen.

Maybe the reason some of us fans are grousing too much about Dizzy's season, despite the fact that the Sox win every freakin game he starts, is that we are not used to having a great season for a pitcher include even a medium-level of walks, never mind the 2008 Matusakan tower of BB's. Our recent great pitching seasons have come from Beckett, Pedro, Schilling (and even D-Lowe in 2002)... all of whom were extremely stingy with the walks.

since right now Carl Pavano may be more valuable going forward than Josh Beckett.

hah haha ah ha

Dice K's numbers may make it look like he's being extra careful, trying to make good hitters go after pitches off the corners. But watching him, it's clear this isn't what's happening. He just completely loses the strikezone at times. His pitches off the plate are so far off that there's little chance that anyone is going to swing at them. That's why he gets so few swings and misses outside the zone and so many walks.

His numbers have improved lately (38 Ks, 18 BBs, 3 HR in 40 IP in August), however. Also, he's been very good about not missing badly in the zone generally, which is why he's only allowed 10 HRs this year I guess.

But since Dice-K doesn't exactly have marginal stuff, isn't it possible that he's trying to get the good hitters to swing at bad pitches, and if that fails, he accepts the walk and then attacks the lesser batter? IOW an intelligent strategy based on percentages rather than a makeshift tactic based on a lack of confidence. In any case, it's hard to argue with the results.

I think this is exactly it. He NEVER seems to give in and just throw one over the plate; even when he's ahead 0-2 he tries to get batters to swing at crap out of the zone. His stuff moves all over the place, so I wonder if it's a deliberate plan of attack to be willing to allow the BB but under no circumstances give the batter something good to hit. Thus the high BB rate and the extremely low hit rate.

One pitch that seems to be new to him this year is the backdoor slider to lefthanded batters; he starts it by aiming it right at them and it breaks back over the inside part of the plate for a strike. Freezes them right up. I don't remember him throwing that pitch last year, although with the 18 pitches he supposedly throws I may well be wrong.

Dice K's numbers may make it look like he's being extra careful, trying to make good hitters go after pitches off the corners. But watching him, it's clear this isn't what's happening. He just completely loses the strikezone at times.

sometimes he loses the zone and is just wild, but there are definitely times when he just nibbles and is just off the corners.

has he walked any runs in this year? it doesnt seem like many (going from memory).

One pitch that seems to be new to him this year is the backdoor slider to lefthanded batters; he starts it by aiming it right at them and it breaks back over the inside part of the plate for a strike. Freezes them right up. I don't remember him throwing that pitch last year, although with the 18 pitches he supposedly throws I may well be wrong.

Isn't that the Gyroball?

CFiJ,

Did you see Dice in Japan much? Did his command look as awful as it does now? I recall that the scouting on him said that he actually had very good command of several pitches, but that's not what I see when he's on the mound. Perhaps it's the bigger baseball?

I've seen quite a bit of Matsuzaka (even met him once his rookie year!), and no his command was never bad. Japanese baseballs are manufactured to the same (rulebook) specs as MLB, so the ball isn't bigger. However, MLB baseballs appear to have fatter, higher seams, and that's what's been giving him problems.

And I don't think it's an either/or thing. I think he sometimes loses his "feel" with the MLB ball. But even in Japan he ran up high pitch counts because he simply would not give in to the batter. So, even in Japan, a lot of 0-1, 0-2 counts would go full. That is not an uncommon trait in pitchers over here.

Another thing to consider is that he's getting pulled a lot earlier than he was in Japan. I'm looking at his Game Logs on BBRef, and his highest pitch count this year is 116. That'd probably be his lowest pitch count in a typical year in Japan. And he has 5 wins with less than a 100 pitches. In Japan, Daisuke going less than 100 pitches generally meant he was knocked out of the box early. If Francona let him regularly pitch into the 120s, like he did in Japan, he'd probably have another 30 innings already. But, they probably don't want him to run out of gas at the end of the season, so they're being conservative with him.

Isn't that the Gyroball?

No. He doesn't throw one.

CFiJ, I assume he was a lot more efficient in Japan, even if he routinely finished with high pitch counts. My guess is that he has the same approach and the same stuff as he had in Japan, but the major difference is the level of competition here. Perhaps, American Major League hitters are just tougher to get to chase at his stuff out of the zone?

I think this is exactly it. He NEVER seems to give in and just throw one over the plate; even when he's ahead 0-2 he tries to get batters to swing at crap out of the zone.

This isn't specific to Dice-K, but it's something I noticed in general. Pitchers seem to get attacked around here every time they are in an 0-2 count, unless they get an immediate K.

If the batter gets a hit, it's: "He should never have throwen him anything that he can hit in that count."

If he runs the count to 2-2, it's: "ffs you had him 0-2, put him away."

Lose-Lose

Perhaps, Major League hitters are just tougher to get to chase at his stuff out of the zone?

For sure. Kazuhiro Sasaki said that very thing in an interview after his rookie MLB season.

Another thing that happens to him once in a while is that he loses his mechanics out of the stretch and gets wild. He seems to be able to correct it soon enough, but his motion out of the stretch is pretty complicated so small things being off can have large consequences for him.

But, they probably don't want him to run out of gas at the end of the season, so they're being conservative with him.

Not to mention the 6 man rotation in Japan allowed him more rest between starts.

has he walked any runs in this year? it doesnt seem like many (going from memory).

In his 16 PA with the bases loaded this season he has allowed 3 runs: 1 on a BB, one on a SF, and the last I presume is on an error (since it doesn't show up anywhere else in the stat line). He has K'd 5 batters and allowed 0 hits for a batting line against with the bases loaded of .000/.063/.000.

Edit: B-Ref does have ROE, and in this case it's 0, so I don't know where that last run came from.

Thanks CFiJ.

Edit: B-Ref does have ROE, and in this case it's 0, so I don't know where that last run came from.

Wouldn't a fielders choice work? Or a double play with the runner scoring?

wild pitch?

One pitch that seems to be new to him this year is the backdoor slider to lefthanded batters; he starts it by aiming it right at them and it breaks back over the inside part of the plate for a strike. Freezes them right up.

The pitch your describing, if I'm reading you right, is a two-seam fastball. Hard off the plate on the inside, running back to catch the corner, about 90 MPH is a two-seamer. A slider from a right-handed pitcher will run into lefties, not run back over the plate.

Wouldn't a fielders choice work? Or a double play with the runner scoring?

wild pitch?

And it's back to the well for more coffee for me...

Although I'm trying to remember if he had a WP, it seems to ring a bell.

No. He doesn't throw one.

Sorry. Needed sarcasm marks :)

Another thing that happens to him once in a while is that he loses his mechanics out of the stretch and gets wild.

He had this problem all the time last year, but it feels like it's been less relevant this year. It still happens some, but you don't see it every time someone gets on first base, like it seemed like you did last year.

Let me clarify: When I said he was "pitching like ####", I meant more that it feels like he's pitching like ####. He takes forever, he nibbles, he tries seven different approaches to situations that would seem to have a simple solution -- often called "high-and-in fastball" -- and he leaves the game early. And the ERA+, fun as it is, is totally unsupported by the numbers. He has manifestly pitched worse this year than last: He's walked just as many guys in 60 fewer innings and his K rate is down, despite the kid gloves. He hasn't given up many HR and he hasn't given up as many hits with runners on base. If those are sustainable, great. But I wouldn't bet on it.

When I read "nibbler who tends to get into jams," I think of a guy with marginal stuff who tries to survive by making the perfect pitch on the corners,

I think of a guy who's constantly eating small bites of food, and perhaps lives or works in a jam factory.

And the ERA+, fun as it is, is totally unsupported by the numbers. He has manifestly pitched worse this year than last: He's walked just as many guys in 60 fewer innings and his K rate is down, despite the kid gloves. He hasn't given up many HR and he hasn't given up as many hits with runners on base. If those are sustainable, great. But I wouldn't bet on it.

My take is, if someone wanted to say his IP are too low for CYA consideration, that's cool. And if someone wanted to say that there's no way he can keep up what he's doing, that's certainly fair enough. But I'm mind-boggled by the idea that the ERA+ doesn't mean exactly what it says: he has not allowed many earned runs. And, IMO, that means that while his style may be frustrating, and unsustainable, one thing Matsuzaka has not been doing this year is letting runners score. And if he's doing that, he's not pitching like ####. He is, in fact, providing a highly valuable contribution to the Red Sox's season. He's not pitching worse than last year, he's simply pitching uglier than last year.

There's a place for component based analysis in making projections. Will Dice-K do it again next year? Probably not. But OTOH, who the #### cares about next year? He's doing it this year!

And, IMO, that means that while his style may be frustrating, and unsustainable, one thing Matsuzaka has not been doing this year is letting runners score. And if he's doing that, he's not pitching like ####. He is, in fact, providing a highly valuable contribution to the Red Sox's season. He's not pitching worse than last year, he's simply pitching uglier than last year.

This same argument could be made for wins, but people who follow baseball closely can see the flaws. You can rack up 20 wins without being that good of a pitcher. The same is true of ERA and ERA+, even though those are better measures of a pitcher's ability. The positive results in preventing runs may be attributable to Dice-K or they may be attributable to defense, placement of balls in play, or other factors. That's the main reason that I'm interested in repeatable skills. It's not just that they are the best predictors of the future. It's that they are the best predictors of who is actually responsible for events on the field.