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Friday, February 22, 2008

MLB.com’s Fantasy 411: Composite projections are here!

Is one projection system not enough for you? Would you like to see the results of multiple systems blended together? If the answer is yes, somebody has already done the work for you.

Although he doesn’t name the systems he’s combining, a look at the numbers for Josh Willingham and Magglio Ordonez suggests ZIPS is included.

Jim Furtado Posted: February 22, 2008 at 08:34 AM | 8 comment(s)
  Related News: General, Projections

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   1. AROM  Posted: February 22, 2008 at 09:13 AM (#2697269)
From looking at those 2 players, doesn't look like CHONE, Bill James, or Marcel are included. But you can find them on Fangraphs.
   2. davekemp  Posted: February 22, 2008 at 09:31 AM (#2697281)
Last year's composite projections from the 411 had at least 3 of these 4:

Chone
Marcel
ZIPS
Bill James
   3. davekemp  Posted: February 22, 2008 at 09:35 AM (#2697283)
These guys also have a great podcast
   4. shoewizard  Posted: February 22, 2008 at 11:05 AM (#2697342)
Question: Has anyone ever included "composite" projections in the comparisons that are done each year between some of the various projection systems that are popularly debated around here? Is there any evidence that the composite projections are the most accurate?
   5. shoewizard  Posted: February 22, 2008 at 11:34 AM (#2697376)
Although he doesn’t name the systems he’s combining, a look at the numbers for Josh Willingham and Magglio Ordonez suggests ZIPS is included.

Pecota is in there too.
   6. shoewizard  Posted: February 22, 2008 at 04:47 PM (#2697653)
Rotowire is in there, but rotoworld, CBS and Sporting News are NOT. So thats 3 of the 7 identified.
   7. GotowarMissAgnes  Posted: February 23, 2008 at 04:51 AM (#2697894)
BPro's after the season analysis essentially estimates a linear best predictor, but I do not think anyone has ever tried to do a comparison of any composite projections.

Be nice to know how it was done. I tend to drop the top and bottom projections and average the rest.
   8. Jeff K.  Posted: February 23, 2008 at 09:02 AM (#2697909)
If anyone cares, you can check the Zips projection thread in TO to find Zips, Marcel, and CHONE all in one spreadsheet, courtesy of Dan Werr, myself, and Dial.
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