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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Thursday, October 05, 2006MLB: Bonds on pay cut: ‘I’ll be glad to stay home’
And in the “if that’s the case, John Paciorek should have been awarded the ‘63 NL Batting Title” department…
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WTF is this about? Has something like this ever been done before? Does Brian McCann get to add a few more plate appearances to his total and "officially" claim to have finished in the top 5 (or whatever) in batting average for the 2006 season? If it didn't happen on the field, it didn't happen at all.
Admittedly this is a strange way of looking at it, since Bonds's real OBP is .454. But since Elias is the one which is hypothosizing those nine hitless appearances in the first place, it would seem that they'd want to be consistent in their reasoning, at least on their leaderboard list, if not in their overall stats.
Yes, actually. If you don't hit the PA qualifications for the batting title, they add hitless ABs until you do, then recaculate your average.
This case seems unusual, because I wasn't aware that they did the same for OBP. Is this the first time they've done it?
And those hypothetical double plays wouldn't have affected OBP. The worst you can be charged with is one plate appearance without a corresponding "reached base". If you want to charge him with hypothetical GDP to make the cutoff in some weighting system, you can do so if you want.
McCann went 147 for 442 At-Bats in 492 PA. So to qualify him, you work it out as 147-for-452 or .325 which wouldn't even put him in the NL top 5.
To you.
Even if we assume the absolute worst happened in those additional plate appearances (e.g. Bonds grounded into 9 triple plays), his resulting OBP would have been the best in the NL. And that's the absolute WORST that could happen, whether it was Bonds or his replacement (because Bonds wasn't able to play) at the plate. I think it's fair enough.
If someone went 240 for 250, then missed the second half of the season, I'd still feel comfortable giving him the batting title.
As Cooper says, its been here since 1967. The rules for qualifying have changed over the years. First it was based on at bats (400 I think) until Ted Willams had a year with 6 billion walks or something but less than 400 AB.
Even if we assume the absolute worst happened in those additional plate appearances (e.g. Bonds grounded into 9 triple plays), his resulting OBP would have been the best in the NL.
I don't see what worst case has to do with it. OBP doesn't care if the last 9 PA are triple plays or game winning sac flies. Either way its a time up and no reaching base.
I'd object if someone said, "Well, he would have only needed 2 hits in 20 more AB to qualify, and surely he could have done that."
No way. I wouldn't give anyone a single hit - but I will give them the outs.
Nine more hitless ABs puts Bonds at .437, six points ahead of Pujols.
Has something like this ever been done before?
I'm pretty sure it has, but I can't think of any examples at the moment. I don't know what the standards are, though; how many hitless ABs are they allowed to add in such a situation? Ten? Twenty?
Of course, if it wasn't Barry, nobody would care.
I guess you know by now, that the answer is "yes". It's SOP. Sorry you don't like it. Write your congressman.
Er, no. Hazel hit .403 in 134 AB in 1957. Toss in 350 or so hitless ABs to make him eligible for the batting title, and he's not even hitting his weight.
And Paciorek woulda had three hits and two walks in 512 plate appearances: not exactly MVP quality, either.
As many as it takes to get to the minimum, right (assuming that with that minimum number of PAs, the player would still get the batting title based on his number of actual hits)? As a practical matter, it wouldn't be more than about 40 or so.
There's no limit. Let's say, for example, that Cole Hamels decides to give up pitching to focus on hitting. He gets hits in his first 201 AB. On the last one, the homerun travels at the speed of light around the world and hits Cole in the back, injuring him for the year.
You can add 301 hitless at bats and unless someone tops .400 he wins the batting title.
If a team was going to roll him out in a wheelchair, there would be downsides to this, either having to roll his wheelchair into left field, removing another player from the lineup, etc. Instead, they get to continue to try and win games, and after the season add some pretend at bats to his record.
Getting on the field is a talent and a skill. If a player can't qualify, he doesn't qualify.
Would it satisfy you if they did some sort of sham where Bonds just stood in the batters' box on crutches and took three strikes?
I would think the reason that they allow the "adding outs" is to avoid making a mockery of the game in this manner.
I hate it when that happens!
Nine more hitless ABs puts Bonds at .437, six points ahead of Pujols.
Right, and this is why Bonds deserves the OBP title. But if Elias lists the leaders in that category, I think that Bonds's number on that list should be .437, with the proper notation as to how that number was derived.
To address BLB, though, I also think that the overall league stats should reflect his real totals, both the .454 and his real number of plate appearances. BLB's point about the averages all balancing is a valid one.
This must not be allowed to stand. MLB should have a fan vote on which pitcher is most deserving of having these extra outs added to their record. My vote would go to Gavin Floyd, he needs all the help he can get.
I understand the rule. That's why I said they are "somewhat" in the record book. The "record" has an understood 9 PAs to make him qualify. So they 9 PAs are somewhat in the record book.
As for the bad arithmetic, Bonds' adjusted OBP was .4462, not .437, giving Bonds the major league lead.
Brian McCann is listed as 6th in batting average and 10th in slugging in the NL with his adjustments.
Ted Williams lost the batting title in 1954 because of added at bats despite 522 PA (huge walk rate). At that time, the standard was 2.6 AT BATS per game, not plate appearances.
That's why his OBP is officially what it really is, .454. The record balances. The hitless PA's are added only to calculate where his .454 falls among the leaders. Say for instance that Bonds needed more than 9 more PAs to qualify, and that left him at .429. The top 4 would then read:
Pujols .431
Cabrera .430
Bonds **.454
Johnson .428
This happened just last year in the NL. Moises Alou finished in 5th place in the batting title race, with a batting average 1 point higher than the 4th place guy.
Lee-CHC .335
Pujols-STL .330
Cabrera-FLA .323
Helton-COL .320
Alou-SFG **.321
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/chronicle/archive/2006/10/05/SPG2TLIFOR1.DTL
In this article, it suggests that "Hillenbrand and Feliz might be the easiest to secure because both have expressed a strong desire to stay."
Bonds is a great player. Hillenbrand and Feliz?
Using the free agent value calculator on the hardballtimes site, which is based on current salary and win shares above bench for 2005 free agents, and using 2006 win shares above bench, Bonds scores about $22 million. Hillenbrand less than a million. Feliz about $2.5 million. If the latter two get anywhere near their current pay, they should be ready to sign.
It's not like they're inventing at-bats - they're just measuring where the record someone DOES achieve should be placed in the context of what other people achieved. Sheesh.
Keerist. It's been this way for years.
Actually, I do think they should probably bring back Feliz because he's an excellent defensive player and with so many holes to fill, he's not the worst guy they could get to stand near third base. He hits one out every other week or so which helps too. But for some reason the idea that he's worth millions just don't seem right.
Indeed, almost every year there is someone.
2005 - Alou and Mark Ellis
2003 - Javvy Lopez and Reggie Sanders
2003 Aubrey Huff
This is what I'm interested in. I'm wondering if the Giants won't blink and give him a big contract - he's a huge draw to that ballpark.
It wouldn't make sense for any other team to offer him that kind of money, but I wonder if it wouldn't be dumb for the Giants to let him go.
I'm sure his "adjusted" OBP does, but who cares? They don't put adjusted OBP on baseball cards. All the adjustment determines is whether or not he wins. He either does or he doesn't. In 1996, Tony Gwynn officially hit .353. For purposes of determining the batting champion, they recalculated and determined that his recalculated average was higher than the next best player. But that's not the number that officially goes in the books because he didn't officially hit that recaculated number. On B-R, it's explained with an asterisk.
I understand your point, but I think think you're trying to combine two concepts that don't really need to be combined. As far as the official stats are concerned, Bonds reached base a .454 clip. As far as the OBP title goes (which, quite frankly, I never knew anyone cared enough about for a big discussion), his adjusted rate was higher than the next best player. What that adjusted amount is doesn't really matter, so long as it's higher than player #2.
Bonds, Gwynn, Madlock, Gene Woodling OBP 1953, Ted Williams OBP and SLP 1954.
First issue is what aspects of performance wins games? The (it's safe to say) anti-Bonds SF press harps on the ".270 hitter" and only "77 rbi". The Giants could do the same. Bonds counters with "leading the majors in OBP", rbi is a team stat and .400+ average with RISP means 77 rbi not his fault (and he won an MVP with 90 rbi). Press says he can't defend, Bonds has stats that say he can and how much does that matter anyway?
Second issues is butts in the seats and associated revenues. SF press says "All Star game" and Yankees. Bonds says "will Giants fans be excited with Randy Winn as the All Star rep?"
Third issue is health. Bonds is trying to sell that he'll be more healthy and more productive next year. Giants'll tell him he's really old and it's risky. What's the middle there? Assume next season will be about the same as this was?
"Due to the strike-shortened season, the games a team played, rather rather than the scheduled games, were the basis for individual championships. Pittsburgh, Madlock's club, played 103 games. Thus, 103 X 3.1 = 319 plate appearences to qualify for the batting championship. Madlock topped the required 319 PA's by one."
There would be plenty of viable options for the Yankees at 3rd base, and they would probably go for the best defender they could get. They have enough offense elsewhere.
If A-Rod doesn't start hitting in the post season, I think that greatly enhances the possibility he would be traded. SFO is as good a guess as any other team.
Doesn't Rodriguez have a no-trade clause? Not that he would necessarily turn down a trade, but do you think he would want to go to the Giants?
What's the difference between someone hitting .410 in 499 PAs and one month of the season left and someone hitting .410 in 499 PAs with no more games left to play? The former is unlikely to finish the season above .400 unless he immediately gets hit by a bus, but the latter is going to get some kind of calculated batting title and credit for hitting .400?
I realize these are rate stats, and no distinction is made between hitting .410 in 550 PAs and .410 in 650 PAs so long as you are over the minimum cutoff, but I still think this is an unintutive correction at best.
If you don't extrapolate, you could end up with an absurd situation where one player has more hits in fewer ABs, yet doesn't win the title.
Player A - 175 hits, 450 ABs, 40 other PAs, .389 BA
Player B - 170 hits, 495 ABs, 40 other PAs, .343 BA
If player A went 0-55, he would still win the title.
Can we leave Russ Ortiz out of this discussion?
I don't want to take this too far, because obviously I am just speculating out my keister....so pleast take it as such.
If he has a BAD post season, and it's certainly started out that way for him, his position there will be untenable. If he was being booed mercilessly this year, how would it be next year if he continues to flop "when it counts"? At least as bad or most likely, if imagineable....even worse. He was miserable. I don't think he would want to go through another year like that. I think that he would agree to waive his NTC.
As for SFO....WHY NOT? It's big enough to not be small market, but small enough to probably make him feel a little more comfortable.
If the Giants don't keep Bonds, and with all the other guys they have leaving, they would have plenty of money to pay A-Rod 15 million, (Again, I am assuming the 10 million kick in from Texas goes with him) and they would immediately have another big name marquee player to help fill the void left by Bonds' departure.
And finally, the Giants DO have what the Yankees need most....good young pitching.
I am sure there are some good reasons why this won't ever happen, but there are at least a few reasonable scenarios that I can envision where it might.
Who exactly is this "they," Daryn? MLB doesn't calculate OPS officially, let alone OPS+.
I agree with this. If the Yankees don't win the WS and ARod plays poorly (or maybe even if they win and he plays poorly), he's gone. He's not going to want to stay and they're not going to want to keep him. ARod + the TX money could bring them a good young pitcher and a servicable 3B. (Mora and Loewen would make some sense, but I doubt they trade ARod in the division). SF makes a certain amount of sense. Houston? LAA?
I agree with this. If the Yankees don't win the WS and ARod plays poorly (or maybe even if they win and he plays poorly), he's gone. He's not going to want to stay and they're not going to want to keep him. ARod + the TX money could bring them a good young pitcher and a servicable 3B. (Mora and Loewen would make some sense, but I doubt they trade ARod in the division). SF makes a certain amount of sense. Houston? LAA?
I completely disagree. It assumes that the Yankees' management is as stupid as the Yankees' fans and New York sports columnists are. Alex Rodriguez is still the best all around player on the Yankees and there is no reason to get rid of him.
"SF makes a certain amount of sense. Houston? LAA?"
I'm sure the Giants would love to have A-Rod, but I can't think of any position players the Giants have who the Yankees would want in exchange. You think the Bombers would prefer to have Omar Vizquel or Pedro Feliz?
Not that New York is stupid enough to do this, but if the Yankees offered A-Rod and cash for Matt Cain, I'd make the trade if I were Brian Sabean. Yet if San Francisco gives up Cain or any other young starting pitchers, their hope for the future is really shot.
"Houston? LAA?"
Anaheim is a bit weak offensively, and they have a lot of prospects. So, again, only if Cashman is nuts, the Angels make some sense for a trade. I'm sure the Yankees would love to have Roy Oswalt, but unless New York pays Rodriguez's salary, I can't see the Astros pulling the trigger on that deal.
Player A - 175 hits, 450 ABs, 40 other PAs, .389 BA
Player B - 170 hits, 495 ABs, 40 other PAs, .343 BA
If player A went 0-55, he would still win the title.
Yeah, and if he went 0-100, he would not. Noone has any idea what "would have" happened had player A played more.
In your scenario, I'd say player A wins the hits title (a counting stat), and player B wins the batting title (a rate stat with a defined minimum number of chances). Why is this absurd?
. . .
only if Cashman is nuts
This assumes that Von Steingrabber continues to fade away and allow Cashman to hold the reins. If the Yankees lose to Detroit in this series, and A-Rod continues to play as he has -- like that bases-loaded, 2-out strikeout -- he will be blamed REGARDLESS of everyone else's failures -- Georgie may just have one last irrational tantrum in him. In which case, bye-bye A-Rod.
The yankees have claimed that they're losing money. If they're concerned about payroll and see ARod as a off the field distraction/problem, trading him to clear $15M in payroll and get a good young pitcher makes sense. Sure, ARod is a great player, but he's not untradeable.
Anaheim is a bit weak offensively, and they have a lot of prospects. So, again, only if Cashman is nuts, the Angels make some sense for a trade. I'm sure the Yankees would love to have Roy Oswalt, but unless New York pays Rodriguez's salary, I can't see the Astros pulling the trigger on that deal.
I wasn't talking about Oswalt or anyone close to his level. More like Nick Adenhart or Jason Hirsh.
Because that's not what a batting champion is. No one should be declared batting champion when someone else has more hits and a higher batting average.
Would you deny a title to someone who goes 450 for 450?
####### Nykesha Sales. What a ####### travesty.
OK, on second thought, that's not a hard and fast rule either. Someone could go 120 for 360 with 200 walks, while someone else could go 130 for 380 and only 50 walks.
That doesn't mean I conceded my original point.
I want to see him break the record.
No, all of baseball wouldn't.
So can we say that money and a contract is a female chicken?
Shouldn't we be trying to decide who will win in this battle to decide who will get the better of this deal?
My guess will be that the Giants compromise just enough to sign Mr. Bonds at $30 mil for 2 years. And that we will see no less than a dozen more articles on the fluffing of the two combatant's feathers and postering.
If we are giving predictions, I see a one year Thomas-like deal, but with a much higher base salary (say $8-10 million).
I misinterpreted your earlier remark, Kevin. I thought you were including fans. I suppose you are probably right about the MLB hierarchy. However, I personally think they should celebrate Bonds's accomplishment. He's still the best offensive player I've ever seen. And within a relatively short time, someone (A-Rod?, Pujols?, Howard?, Scutaro?) will cruise past Bonds. It interests me that as great a hitter as Albert Pujols is, he is still not given the extraordinary respect -- by way of getting pitched around -- that Bonds got for a few years. I wonder if we'll ever see that. (I know that part of it was that no one hitting behind Barry was all that good. But even when Bonds hit third and Kent hit fourth, Bonds got walked a tremendous amount.) I don't think even Buck Showalter would intentionally walk Albert with the bases loaded.
Howard has zero chance. He's like 26 or something.
He'll be here all week, folks. Don't forget to tip your waitress before you leave.
As far as the batting title goes, as many others have said, it's been done this way for a long time, and it has affected a number of batting races. No plate apperances are added to the record book; mlb just logically says that a .398 OPB in 4898 plate appearances is more worthy of a title than .385 OBP in 501 plate appearances. Many MLB policies don't make a lot of sense, but this one does.
MLB only thinks that way when it awards a title. MLB doesn't officially award 2nd place or 3rd place to anyone, so it doesn't have a policy on how to interpret similar data in non-title situations.
The Baseball Encyclopedia takes titles seriously. Players who officially won titles are marked as such, even when it turns out for various reasons other players had higher batting averages or more runs etc (usually, but not always, because of counting mistakes made at the time). While the policy with regards to the numbers used are to reflect what really happened on the field, people who were given awards or honors for an achievement can't be changed because we now learned that someone added wrong. So winning titles and having certain statistics are already viewed as two different things.
I'm not really sure what the policy is for stats where mlb doesn't have titles etc (non-official stats) and rankings; I'll try and clarify this.
What the hell? Explain.
That points out the biggest problem with using a given number of outs as the cutoff. It should be batters faced since you could then assume the shortfall number of batters all hit hypothetical home runs and do the calculation based on that.
That would indicate to me that he was worth 83.98% of the Giants' budget for clubhouse spreads.
No, it wasn't.
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