I was just looking through Beltre's minor league stats the other day and I am really surprised that he didn't become a superstar. Still, he has been a very good player and I guess he actually fulfilled that superstar peak, albeit for 1 year.

#1 sums up the perception of Beltre.

The reality is, Beltre is underrated. Because of his career year, people have in their minds Beltre is a failure in each of the other years, somehow missing out on being a star. Beltre is very underrated. He is one of the better third basemen in baseball. He is as good as Troy Glaus ever was.

Nah, there was the same perception of him before that career year. For his first 5 seasons he was expected to break out into superstardom every year but instead he consistently regressed until the Andersonesque career(and conveniently contract) year. Then of course the next season his OPS+ dropped by 70.

I cry steriods!

His career year he had bone spurs in his ankle that made it very painful for him to reach for low and away pitches - so he held off swinging on them. At least that was the perception of many fans that season for why he had suddenly gained much better awareness of when to swing. Then he had surgery after that season, and subsequently regressed a bit.

#1 sums up the perception of Beltre.

The reality is, Beltre is underrated. Because of his career year, people have in their minds Beltre is a failure in each of the other years, somehow missing out on being a star. Beltre is very underrated. He is one of the better third basemen in baseball. He is as good as Troy Glaus ever was.

Did you stop reading after the first sentence? This is basically what I said.

Really, the problem with Beltre is just that he is underrated. That career year really killed the perception of him, even though he is one of the best third basemen in baseball.

Really? I never really give him that much credit. I mean, after that big year it all seems like a disappointment. But I guess his numbers do look pretty good.

Did you stop reading after the first sentence? This is basically what I said.

People think Beltre is a disappointment only because of the incredible season he had. If he never had that season, they would actually be able to enjoy this guy as a star. Intead it is all about what he wasn't and that is a shame, and that is how you and everyone else sees Beltre as.

Really? I never really give him that much credit. I mean, after that big year it all seems like a disappointment. But I guess his numbers do look pretty good.

Actualy, THIS post perfectly sums up most fans' perception of Beltre. A real shame. He's been a joy to watch over the last few years. One of the few, frankly.

On the other hand, I hope that this underrated perception of Beltre might make resigning him possible.

If he never had that season, they would actually be able to enjoy this guy as a star.

Oh piffle. He's a fine player but his value is primarily defense while being only a slightly above-average hitter for his position (or overall). Such guys are never stars with the exception of Ozzie Smith and Brooks Robinson. AROD, Jones, Ramirez, Rolen, Glaus, Chavez, Lowell have all been better hitters (some not by much, some by A LOT) and Rolen, Chavez and Lowell have also been very good defensively.

Beltre is the Mark Ellis of 3B ... which is very valuable but never a star. Beltre has never even made the AS team, not even in his career year.

As to the trade, the Twins aren't really reluctant to include Blackburn in the deal are they? If Blackburn plus a couple mediocre prospects will get them Beltre, they should be all over that.

He is as good as Troy Glaus ever was.

Both players have played for the same number of years. Beltre is 2 years younger.

I can't speak much on the comparison of these two as a fielder, but I understand that both have pretty good reputations. Beltre has always been known as an outstanding fielder, and I have never really heard negative things about Glaus. FWIW, they have similar range factors and fielding percentages over their career. Let's give the edge to Beltre, unless someone wants to add something else here.

Based on OPS+, Glaus has been a better hitter. Beltre has one season with an OPS+ of 163. After that, he drops a bit. For his career:

163, 114, 112, 110(this year), 105, 101, 97, 93, 91, 88, 73(1st year).

Glaus is:

150, 140(only 207 AB), 134(this year), 133, 126, 122, 120, 113, 113, 98, 48(1st year).

So Glaus has been a better hitter.

But Beltre has been much more durable, whereas Glaus missed significant time in 2003, 2004, and 2007.

I would probably say Glaus has been a better player, because when healthy he has been much more productive. But Beltre's durability is impressive.

Also, as a side note... the Ms had a notorious problem getting a good 3B for years (David Bell, Jeff Cirillo, Scott Spiezio.)

People think Beltre is a disappointment only because of the incredible season he had. If he never had that season, they would actually be able to enjoy this guy as a star. Intead it is all about what he wasn't and that is a shame, and that is how you and everyone else sees Beltre as.

Well, you're wrong. People think he is a disappointment because he was a historically good minor league prospect. He had a 1000 OPS as a 19-year old in double-A with plus defense at 3rd. Do you know how much hype a prospect like that would receive nowadays? He had a good season in 2000, but stumbled around for the next 3 years putting up replacement level offense at 3rd. Many Dodger fans considered him a disappointment at this point, even prior to the big season he had. He didn't set the expectations after he had that 2004 season, those were already the expectations people had for him following his torrid run through the minors.

If I were the Twins I'd probably do a Perkins/Mulvey for Beltre deal. They need to open a rotation spot for Liriano anyway. Beltre would look pretty good in that lineup and put an end to the embarrassment of the Mike Lamb and Brian Buscher eras.

You know what would make me happy and blow everyone's mind? Eveland/Smith, mid-level pitching prospect, throw-in prospect for Beltre. Really, anything reasonable short of giving up Cahill or Anderson.

People think Beltre is a disappointment only because of the incredible season he had. If he never had that season, they would actually be able to enjoy this guy as a star.

I agree with those who say this is wrong. People thought Beltre was a disappointment even before the career year in 2004. The reason is that he was a great minor leaguer who came up to the majors and hit well at ages 20 and 21. He was a good fielder, drew walks and had a better-than average on-base percentage. His OPS+ was 114 at age 21. Even if he had just stayed at that level, with his OBP, he would have been a star.

Instead, IIRC, he had an emergency appendectomy in the Dominican Republic shortly before the 2001 season, missed some time, and when he came back he was never the same hitter. His average, power and walk rate all dropped and he posted an OPS+ of 91. People chalked it up to the appendix and waited for him to rebound the following year. But he continued to struggle at the plate for two more years.

Then he had a career year in 2004, and people expected that he would at least be an above-average hitter going forward. But he regressed again in 2005.

The last few years, he's regained enough power to become an above-average hitter, and with his defense that makes him a valuable player. But for a guy who walked a fair amount at ages 20-21, he's shown disappointing strike zone judgment and ability to get on base ever since.

i never understood all the skreeeeeming about his "potential" that never stopped. so he was a great hitter in the minors. lots of great hitters in the minors don't hit at all in the majors.

and i understand thinking that after his first year, he was gonna get better. maybe after his second year too. but HOW many PA does he have to have with the same 100-105 OPS+ before everyone stops insisting he got all this "potential"

and yeah, so he had one of those fluke career years like norm cash. it happens. but everyone is STILL insisting he has all this potential he hasn't lived up to

looks more like he didn't have the supposed "potential" in the first place.

With Beltre being owed 13.4 million next year Seattle should be happy to get rid of him.

So, basically he's Andruw Jones except that he didn't play on a perennial powerhouse team, played in tougher stadiums for him to hit in, didn't win the Gold Gloves that he could have, and didn't see his career altogether collapse.

With Beltre being owed 13.4 million next year Seattle should be happy to get rid of him.

If they want to save money they could get rid of Johjima.

Well, you're wrong. People think he is a disappointment because he was a historically good minor league prospect. He had a 1000 OPS as a 19-year old in double-A with plus defense at 3rd. Do you know how much hype a prospect like that would receive nowadays?

I'm forced to think of Andy Marte.

and i understand thinking that after his first year, he was gonna get better. maybe after his second year too. but HOW many PA does he have to have with the same 100-105 OPS+ before everyone stops insisting he got all this "potential"

I don't think people say it anymore. This issue isn't merely that he didn't get better after his first or second year. It's that he actually got worse, for 4 out of the next 5 seasons.

With Beltre being owed 13.4 million next year Seattle should be happy to get rid of him.

Is 13 million really a large price tag for (arguably) the best defensive 3rd baseman in the AL that can also put up average to slightly above-average offensive numbers? I say no, considering that it's the same as Mike Lowell is making and the two are very comparable players.

The money owed to Johjima and Vidro however...

I'm forced to think of Andy Marte.

And you would be wrong. Marte's minor league numbers do not hold up to Beltre's.

With Beltre being owed 13.4 million next year Seattle should be happy to get rid of him.

You must be laboring under the delusion that the Mariners aren't one of the more wealthy franchises in the game. They have a lot of other ways they could cut dead weight before they were forced to trade one of their best players, who is drawing a salary that is at least roughly commensurate to the production he has given the team.

I'm forced to think of Andy Marte.

More like Delmon Young after his AA season. Marte was mostly an ARL guy, but his raw stats weren't necessarily that impressive.

Yeah, I wasn't thinking of his raw stats as much as his being a plus defender with a well regarded bat at 3B, and the hype (and eventual disapointment) that went with it.

Now I'm just hoping that in a few years when I think of "3B prospect busts", I don't think of Almanzar.

If the M's plan to extend Beltre, then keeping him might make sense. If they think think they'll contend next season, then keeping him makes sense (although thinking so in the first place may not).

Apart from those two conditions... well, 13 million dollars is a lot of money.

Edit: And I suppose if they trade him now they save more than 13 million.