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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Saturday, July 28, 2007MN Star-Tribune: Hunter can only wait and wonder
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My BookmarksYou must be logged in to view your Bookmarks. Hot TopicsNewsblog: Madden: Omar Minaya's Mets have issues with injuries and inside the clubhouse (2 - 1:19pm, Jul 05) Last: Jeff K. Newsblog: Plain Dealer/Pluto: Matt LaPorta is still in the minors because of Grady Sizemore's cranky elbow (4 - 1:14pm, Jul 05) Last: Harveys Wallbangers Newsblog: Steve Kettman: A review of the unmaking of 'Moneyball: The Movie' (6 - 1:12pm, Jul 05) Last: Jeff K. Newsblog: tampabay.com: Tampa Bay Rays minor-league affiliate's Ladies Night promotion causing a stir
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He said he has tasted the bricks at Wrigley during inter-league and has no desire to play there again.
1) Torii has been more consistent to this point in his career. He has never been patient, not at all. But he has slugged between .450-.550 every season since he became a full time regular at 25. His worst OPS+ over that span is 97. Damon never had as much power and had 4 seasons below 100, one as low as 85, making him a pretty average player at his established worst. Hunter has never been an average player. Maybe the Bobby Abreu experience means consistency does not preclude an all out collapse, but I think Hunter has a greater chance of continuing.
2) Damon always ran the risk of falling apart because his game relies a great deal on speed. He knows how to get on base by way of the walk, but without power, he needs to hit at least .280 to keep up his offensive value. Hunter has had 4 seasons with averages below .280 and OPS+ above 100, and managed a 97 OPS+ with only a .250 average in 2003. Those 30-40 points of batting average are the difference between good Damon and miserable Damon. If Hunter loses those singles, he becomes a pretty good CF and an average hitter, and that's probably a pretty pessimistic forecast. Is there a chance he can no longer turn on fastballs and turns into a .230/.290/.390 pumpkin? I guess, but most players gain walks as they get older, and that's his biggest weakness right now.
Even before his very strong 2007, PECOTA said he was worth close to $10 mil a year through 2010. I think it'll take 4 years to get him, but I also think that the collapse won't come until he's at least 36, so a four year deal doesn't seem like a death knell to me. Who could use a rangy CF with right handed power? Atlanta might be in that market, Boston might make a push if Hunter shows any interest, the Yankees are an obvious one (I was kicking around emails that they should try to offer him with a negotiating window for Kennedy/Horne and Gardner/Tabata, maybe throwing in Rincon as a sweetener), the Rangers get mentioned a lot.
I'm really concerned about the gaping hole in center for Minnesota. There is no solution in the pipeline. Denard Span is a disaster and Ben Revere may be Denard Span-lite. I want the Twins to offer Silva and Rincon for Michael Bourn, DH Kubel for the rest of the year, then give Bourn the starting job next year, spending $5 mil on someone like Matt Stairs or Ben Broussard to DH instead of Jason freaking Tyner. I guess there are a lot of CF on the market, but if the idea is to contend in the new stadium in 2010, they can't bank on a productive 73 year old Kenny Lofton, or whatever other FA magic Ryan can pull out of his Batista-Castro-Ortiz-Ponson hat.
The White Sox could definitely use Hunter. You put up a very compelling argument for Hunter, and I actually agree with you that signing Torii to a four year deal would actually be okay.
I don't know that CFers (Hunter and Jones) are going to get outrageous (Soriano, Lee) money. I just don't think there are that many upper-third payroll teams who really need a CFer.
I have a feeling that Mike Sweeney will be the Twins DH next year. I also have a feeling that he will make Rondell White look as resilient as Cal Ripken Jr.
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