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Saturday, July 28, 2007

MN Star-Tribune: Hunter can only wait and wonder

With their playoff hopes fading and Tuesday’s non-waiver trade deadline approaching, a few Twins players are wondering if they are going to be traded.

That includes Torii Hunter, a potentially big catch for a team if General Manager Terry Ryan decides to build for 2008 and beyond because of the latest losing skid… Hunter has a limited no-trade clause in his contract enabling him to list five teams he can’t be dealt to. Those teams are the Red Sox, Cubs, Tigers, Devil Rays and Blue Jays.

If traded, Hunter said he would be willing to work out a long-term deal with that team if he likes the situation. “It depends on what team it is,” Hunter said. “Who they are. Where they are right now and where they are going to be in the future. If we’re not talking here, I’ll talk to someone else, I guess.”
...
Gardenhire knows Hunter and other Twins are worried about being traded. Second baseman Luis Castillo, reliever Juan Rincon and outfielder Lew Ford and others are also potential candidates to be traded.

“Just staying in touch is what I try to do around here right now,” Gardenhire said. “I make sure I’m out in the clubhouse. As I explained to them, there’s nothing you can do about it if it’s going to happen.”

NTNgod Posted: July 28, 2007 at 04:05 AM | 7 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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   1. no neck Posted: July 28, 2007 at 11:47 AM (#2458727)
The only team I know that Torii wont sign with next year is the Cubs.

He said he has tasted the bricks at Wrigley during inter-league and has no desire to play there again.
   2. Marc Sully's not booin'. He's Youkin'. Posted: July 28, 2007 at 12:24 PM (#2458742)
I predict that whoever signs Hunter will come to regret it.
   3. Long John McCaine Mutiny on the Bounty (scott) Posted: July 28, 2007 at 08:18 PM (#2459105)
i agree with #2, but it makes me kinda sad, because Torii has always been a standup guy and a fine player. i'd be happy for him to sign a 3/35 deal and prove me wrong and retire into the hall of very good.
   4. andrewberg Posted: July 28, 2007 at 09:41 PM (#2459135)
I like Torii, he frustrates me at times, I think the Twins should let him walk to spend their money elsewhere, but I tend to think he could be a pretty good signing for the right team. One has to be wary of the Damon parallels- both have seriously hurt themselves by playing all out, and both had great years in their age 31 walk seasons. Here are a couple of important differences:
1) Torii has been more consistent to this point in his career. He has never been patient, not at all. But he has slugged between .450-.550 every season since he became a full time regular at 25. His worst OPS+ over that span is 97. Damon never had as much power and had 4 seasons below 100, one as low as 85, making him a pretty average player at his established worst. Hunter has never been an average player. Maybe the Bobby Abreu experience means consistency does not preclude an all out collapse, but I think Hunter has a greater chance of continuing.
2) Damon always ran the risk of falling apart because his game relies a great deal on speed. He knows how to get on base by way of the walk, but without power, he needs to hit at least .280 to keep up his offensive value. Hunter has had 4 seasons with averages below .280 and OPS+ above 100, and managed a 97 OPS+ with only a .250 average in 2003. Those 30-40 points of batting average are the difference between good Damon and miserable Damon. If Hunter loses those singles, he becomes a pretty good CF and an average hitter, and that's probably a pretty pessimistic forecast. Is there a chance he can no longer turn on fastballs and turns into a .230/.290/.390 pumpkin? I guess, but most players gain walks as they get older, and that's his biggest weakness right now.

Even before his very strong 2007, PECOTA said he was worth close to $10 mil a year through 2010. I think it'll take 4 years to get him, but I also think that the collapse won't come until he's at least 36, so a four year deal doesn't seem like a death knell to me. Who could use a rangy CF with right handed power? Atlanta might be in that market, Boston might make a push if Hunter shows any interest, the Yankees are an obvious one (I was kicking around emails that they should try to offer him with a negotiating window for Kennedy/Horne and Gardner/Tabata, maybe throwing in Rincon as a sweetener), the Rangers get mentioned a lot.

I'm really concerned about the gaping hole in center for Minnesota. There is no solution in the pipeline. Denard Span is a disaster and Ben Revere may be Denard Span-lite. I want the Twins to offer Silva and Rincon for Michael Bourn, DH Kubel for the rest of the year, then give Bourn the starting job next year, spending $5 mil on someone like Matt Stairs or Ben Broussard to DH instead of Jason freaking Tyner. I guess there are a lot of CF on the market, but if the idea is to contend in the new stadium in 2010, they can't bank on a productive 73 year old Kenny Lofton, or whatever other FA magic Ryan can pull out of his Batista-Castro-Ortiz-Ponson hat.
   5. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 28, 2007 at 10:08 PM (#2459166)
Damon always ran the risk of falling apart because his game relies a great deal on speed.
This is rapidly becoming a major pet peeve. There is no evidence, whatsoever, that speedy players age poorly. What evidence there is suggests that players with good speed age better than comparable players with less speed. I don't know when it became a stathead shibboleth, but it has no empirical backing, and is in fact contradicted by studies such as Bill James' in the 87 Abstract.
   6. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: July 28, 2007 at 10:23 PM (#2459192)
Who could use a rangy CF with right handed power? Atlanta might be in that market, Boston might make a push if Hunter shows any interest, the Yankees are an obvious one (I was kicking around emails that they should try to offer him with a negotiating window for Kennedy/Horne and Gardner/Tabata, maybe throwing in Rincon as a sweetener), the Rangers get mentioned a lot.

The White Sox could definitely use Hunter. You put up a very compelling argument for Hunter, and I actually agree with you that signing Torii to a four year deal would actually be okay.

I don't know that CFers (Hunter and Jones) are going to get outrageous (Soriano, Lee) money. I just don't think there are that many upper-third payroll teams who really need a CFer.
   7. Craig in MN Posted: July 28, 2007 at 10:57 PM (#2459253)
spending $5 mil on someone like Matt Stairs or Ben Broussard to DH instead of Jason freaking Tyner.

I have a feeling that Mike Sweeney will be the Twins DH next year. I also have a feeling that he will make Rondell White look as resilient as Cal Ripken Jr.
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