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Saturday, September 06, 2008

MVN: Matschulat: Texas Rangers Shouldn’t Turn Blind Eye To Defense

The Rangers don’t have a good defense or a league-average defense. They don’t even have a mediocre defense. I’m not quite sure what the right word is.

Reprehensible, perhaps?

...Chris Dial’s handcrafted metric of choice, Defensive Runs Saved, converts zone rating data into a tangible measure of runs saved above-average defensively at any given position. The way Dial went about summing up each player’s defensive contributions at all positions played and then attributing that number to each player’s primary defensive position likely distorted the individual positional totals, but the team defensive totals remain devastatingly accurate.

In the Rangers’ case, -49.7 runs accurate. That’s not a typo, unfortunately; the Texas defense has performed roughly 50 runs below league-average this season, representing the second-worst team defense in Major League Baseball behind only the New York Yankees (-50.2 runs). The Rangers have fared no better where team defensive efficiency is concerned, converting just 68.1 percent of batted balls (not including homers) into outs - the third-worst mark in the majors.

Thanks to Dick Such and Such.

Repoz Posted: September 06, 2008 at 07:01 AM | 5 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsTexasSite News

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   1. Fancy Pants Handle Posted: September 06, 2008 at 08:32 AM (#2931022)
but the team defensive totals remain devastatingly accurate.

Really, I appreciate the work Chris does on this, but really this is nonsense. There are way too many park effects and fluctuations going on to make that claim.

Does anyone think the Red Sox are 28.6 runs below average, the 3rd worst defensive team in the AL? Does anyone think the Rays are only the 6th best defensive team in the league? That the Tigers in 3rd are significantly better? Almost as good as the Jays and A's?

FWIW though, the Rangers do suck defensively...
   2. Excel Hearts Choi Posted: September 06, 2008 at 09:27 AM (#2931030)
I don't get it, the article says the Rangers should not ignore defense, but then talks about the talented defensive players in the minors (Andrus and Borbon). However, the article failed to mention Smoak and Teagarden. Add to this the phenomenal pitching prospects of Feliz and Holland, both of whom miss a lot of bats. Using Chis's work, you will see that despite all of Kinsler's errors, his DRS is only -0.44. So running down this team defensively, let's take a look at the future of this team.

C - Teagarden
1st - Smoak
2nd - Kinsler
SS - Andrus
3rd - Young
RF - Hamilton
CF - Beltre/Borbon
LF - Murphy/Byrd/Boggs

That is a lineup with a lot of plus defenders, and would also be moving Hamilton and Young to positions where they would have a greater defensive impact. Not to mention that players like Saltalamacchia, Laird, Max Ramirez, Chris Davis could be traded. Jon Daniels has not forgotten defense, but it will take some time to make its way to the majors.
   3. Rough Carrigan Posted: September 06, 2008 at 02:01 PM (#2931169)
How would the Rays defense be only 6th in the AL when they're first in MLB in team defensive efficiency (raw stats)?
   4. The District Attorney Posted: September 06, 2008 at 04:34 PM (#2931276)
You want to get rid of Chris Davis to play Michael Young? Seriously? Why would you even want Michael Young to play 3B at all??
   5. jamcadbury Posted: September 07, 2008 at 12:19 AM (#2931639)
Fancy Pants: Fair enough. I had forgotten in my half-coherent state early this morning that DRS isn't park-adjusted; I remember Chris explicitly stating once upon a time that there was a huge problem with the LF data for the Red Sox because of the Green Monster. "Devastatingly accurate" wasn't the right description to use. That being said though, I really think what Chris does is right on the cutting edge as far as widely accessible defensive metrics are concerned.

Excel Hearts: I intentionally avoided discussing the catching situation because it's still such a tremendous unknown; the Rangers could really go any number of different directions, and while Teagarden is making a legitimate push to attain that "franchise catcher" label, I'm just not at all confident the Rangers will go that route...yet. He would certainly represent a significant defensive upgrade, however.

Don't feel comfortable discussing the Smoak situation yet; tremendous talent and pedigree, but he's played just a handful of games professionally to date, and to me his situation boils down to "we'll cross that bridge when we get to it." I want to see a full season out of Smoak before we begin discussing the possibility of trading Davis, which I'm not at all comfortable with right now.

Appears that Kinsler has turned around his season defensively; he's climbed significantly in DRS over the last few weeks and is now more or less league-average. Assuming that's not a mirage of some sort (which I sincerely doubt it is), that really helps if we can count on that from Ian going forward.

Greatly appreciate the criticism and thoughts, folks.
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