off-the-cuff response:
breathe
say "small sample"
breathe again

after a bit more thought, altho I did not read the article:
Does someone have stats from his whole pro career, compared to league avg? Has he had historical ability across the big ocean to allow fewer runs per hits-and-walks allowed than his peers?

In 16 starts Dice K has thrown 88 innings, for about 5.5 innings per start. A quick check of the top 40 AL pitchers (ranked by ERA who qualify for the ERA title) average about 6.3 innings per start. (That number is a bit off as the IP includes innings pitched in relief for some pitchers). Still it does bear out that Dice K throws about an inning less than average. He's still having a very good year.

I wouldn't complain too much, were I a Red Sox fan. But wasn't a lot of the enthusiasm for Dice-K based on his being a guy who could throw a lot of innings and go deep into games? Did I misread the scouting reports?

But wasn't a lot of the enthusiasm for Dice-K based on his being a guy who could throw a lot of innings and go deep into games? Did I misread the scouting reports?

Some of it, yes. Although in the hoopla surrounding his signing, and the endless number of scouting reports it generated, just about everything that could be said about him was said.

His peripherals are way out of whack right now. My hope is that as his ERA corrects a bit, his peripherals (read: BB rate) will do the same. I don't think any result in the second half would really surprise me. He could put up a 2.5 ERA with a great K/BB ratio, be inconsistent but generally league average, or post an ERA in the 6s.

Still, 10-1, 2.65 at the break. I don't care how frustrating he is to watch, them's some fine numbers.

small sample size, not quite...

of his 16 starts, he's had 9 where his bb >= hits allowed. ironically, he's 6-0 in those starts and the sox are 8-1. he has a 1.97 era, with 44bb, 43k, and only 29 hits, 11 er in 50.1 ip

in the starts where he gives up more hits than walks, his era "jumps" to 3.55, and despite his 13bb and 34k, he gives up 36 hits, 15 er (18 r) in 38ip. the sox are 5-2 in those starts (he's 4-1).

i noticed this last year when he'd get behind a hitter, it's as if he'd just give up and walk him and "start fresh" with the next guy.

maybe it's a mental thing: if he walked a guy, he knew he gave up on him, so he can concentrate on the next batter. but if the guy on base got a hit off of him, he gets rattled?

The right-hander needed 115 pitches to throw just six innings and he allowed five walks to one of the league’s least-disciplined lineups, an effort almost mind-boggling in its inefficiency.

How does a team with a BB-rate that is 102% of the league average rank among the "least-disciplined" lineups in the league?

Plus, they've piled up all those walks without facing Daniel Cabrera once.

of his 16 starts, he's had 9 where his bb >= hits allowed. ironically, he's 6-0 in those starts and the sox are 8-1.

(1) that's the standard misuse of "irony"

(2) it's not even "ironic" in the sense that you mean. BB >= H means, among other things, few hits allowed. Which means low ERA, and all sorts of other good things for the team.

A typical Dice-K start:

Your fielders are falling asleep, your bullpen has to go 3-4 deep - bad.

You don't give up many runs, your team wins - good.

(1) that's the standard misuse of "irony"

i'd like to understand how i misued ironically:
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/irony
3 a (1): incongruity between the actual result of a sequence of events and the normal or expected result (2): an event or result marked by such incongruity

sure, it's not the first definition, but it's still a very valid definition. and if you're refering to dramatic or tragic irony, that's definition 3b.

if you're going to be a grammar nazi, learn all the definitions.

(2) it's not even "ironic" in the sense that you mean. BB >= H means, among other things, few hits allowed. Which means low ERA, and all sorts of other good things for the team.

not quite. more bb + fewer hits still means more base runners given up. more base runners (pitchers' obp allowed, whip, take your pick) means more runs expected, and as pointed out, he flies right in the face of that (did i misuse that idiom? =)

5/5 @ det. he pitches 5 innings, only gives up 2 hits, but gives up 8 bb (and only 1 k). but he gets away with 1 run. if you're giving up on average 2 base runners per inning, you're not expected to give up just 1 run.

also, just because bb >= h, does not mean that h is abnormally low (even though some of his starts are). 5/22 vs kc: 5.2 ip, 6 h, 6 bb, only 3 runs allowed. he's one out away from a QS despite giving up 12 baserunners in 5.2 ip. even yesterday's start: 4h/5bb, yet 6 innings of shutout ball.

i'd like to understand how i misued ironically:

3 a (1): incongruity between the actual result of a sequence of events and the normal or expected result (2): an event or result marked by such incongruity

For me, there's nothing to suggest that a starter allowing more walks than hits is likely to lead to poor results. Intuitively, I'd think the opposite is true (if you allow more walks than hits, you're probably getting better results than the average start.)

It could an interestinging study if done by someone other than me. :)

if you're going to be a grammar nazi, learn all the definitions.

uh oh

So if I look at DiceK's starts as examples of ironic humor, will they be more enjoyable to sit through?

Is there any way we can apply this kind of humor to the offense and their propensity for leaving men on base in this game?

I don't see the irony in this either. Daisuke doesn't give up many hits. He gives up a lot of walks. The fact that he doesn't give up many hits has allowed him to escape the damage of the walks.

Is it a BABIP thing or has he historically had a low hit rate? Will he eventually start to get burned real bad from walking so many guys and nit-picking all night? Because I expect a very awful second half out of him for those reasons.

It's like a grand slam, when you're already ahead by ten.

Or a fly ball, after your runner was picked off third.

Or a rain delay, after throwing your ace on short rest.

13. konaforever Posted: July 14, 2008 at 12:56 PM (#2855931)

I don't see the irony in this either. Daisuke doesn't give up many hits. He gives up a lot of walks. The fact that he doesn't give up many hits has allowed him to escape the damage of the walks.

hold on a sec here. this seems like a double-standard. we praise guys like vintage jim thome who hit .270 or .280, but get on base over 40% of the time. but when it comes to pitchers, we ignore their walk rate and and solely praise their hit rate?

14. Royce Rings Heath's Bell Posted: July 14, 2008 at 01:05 PM (#2855942)

Is it a BABIP thing or has he historically had a low hit rate? Will he eventually start to get burned real bad from walking so many guys and nit-picking all night? Because I expect a very awful second half out of him for those reasons.

he was 9th in the AL last year at 8.9 h/9. this year, he's well below that at 6.62 h/9, which would be good for 3rd in the AL. duchscherer leads the league at 5.88, sean marcum second at 6.57. to put it in historical perspective, should he finish the season at the same pace, 6.62 would be 158th best all-time for a single season, and 21st best season amongst active players (clemens not included).

his babip is .249, which is pretty low.

hold on a sec here. this seems like a double-standard. we praise guys like vintage jim thome who hit .270 or .280, but get on base over 40% of the time. but when it comes to pitchers, we ignore their walk rate and and solely praise their hit rate?

The difference here is that it's more like someone hitting .202 with a 33 percent OBP, and 312 slugging. No one we be praised with hitter stats like that.


Here's his opponents stats:
AVG OBP SLG
202 .328 .312

I don't think anybody is praising DiceK for walking so many guys, just trying to explain how he is being successful. Yes we praise guys like Thome for getting on base a lot, but a big part of their value also comes from mashing the ball when they aren't walking. In contrast guys are slugging .312 off of DiceK and their OPS is .640, which explains how he can live with the high walk totals.

.249 babip is pretty low, but not that much lower than I would expect. Babip from pitches on or off the corners is always going to be lower, and DiceK simply doesn't leave balls in the strikezone that are easy to drive...

maybe he's too old for this, but i still like to value pitchers with better k/bb ratios and low walk rates. depending on who you believe, a pitcher can more easily control the walks given up than the hits (or babip).

look at it this way:
07:
whip: 1.324, .246/.326/.405
era: 4.40
08: whip: 1.381, .202/.328/.312
era: 2.65
which of these is not like the other?

i'm just worried that he'll still be walking 5.8 batters per 9 ip when his ba allowed rises above the low .200s =P

if he still walks all those guys and gives up a more normal .220-.240, he'll be throwing bp =P

...Fangraphs!



As you see from the above (and if you follow the link and look at the components) his first two years in Boston are pretty similar to his first 3 or 4 years in NPB. Eventually, Nibble-San put it together in NPB and dropped his walk rate dramatically (while seeing his BABIP rise), but early on his BB/H ratio was pretty high. I don't know how this is relative to league, but I find it interesting.

The optimist in me says that he's learning. The pessimist in me says that this is as good as it gets.

The optimist in me says that he's learning. The pessimist in me says that this is as good as it gets.

couldn't have said it better myself...

his babip is .249, which is pretty low.

Isn't this normal for a gyroballer?