I'd sure hate to be stuck with bums like Brown, Gooden or Richard in the draft. :(

To be honest, what does getting a hof career pitcher really matter to a team? it's his first 6-7 years that matter, if you can get two all-star quality seasons out of them, then it has to be counted as a win.

Didn't Lincecum drop to 17th or something like that?

EDIT: Nope!

Of course its harder to find great pitchers, that's why pitchers are such a valuable commodity. Same with QBs in the NFL draft. They bust a lot more, but good ones are so essential and so rare, you need to invest in them in the first round.

The article is painful to read. Here's a list of some pitchers drafted in the top ten. Here's a list of some hitters drafted in the top ten. Here are some more hitters. Here are some more pitchers. Here are the hitters I omitted earlier.

Pretty useless, especially since he thinks Kevin Brown is "not even close" to the Hall of Fame, but Joe Carter "has the numbers."

Kevin Brown is "not even close" to the Hall of Fame, but Joe Carter "has the numbers."

but Joe Carter DOES have the numbers--they just aren't very GOOD numbers

Clayton Kershaw will be a hall of famer, just watch!

I guess since maybe on average 2 guys a birth-year make the HOF, even if you split hitters and pitchers 50-50, that means 1 pitcher a year makes it. Given that people can get to MLB not only by the draft but if international by a FA signing outside the draft, the point is that the 1 guy a year who might or might not even come through the draft hasn't been drafted in the top 10. I would almost be surprised if more than 1 HAD made it. I guess I am ratifying what is said above; a HOF standard for a drafted pitcher is a bit high, and sure leaves out a lot of successful drafts.

In conclusion, if the Nats draft a Hall of Fame pitcher this year with one of their first two picks, they will be the first team in history to unearth such a Magnificent Creature in the first 10 rounds. Of course, "there has to be a first time."

this is what I find weird, he mentions a couple of guys like Lincecum and Beckett who could possibly become hofers, and guys like Kerry Wood who also may become a hof(as a reliever) but seems to flat out conclude that if the Nats draft a hof pitcher it will be the first time in history. (except of course the other ones drafted in previous seasons that may make it)

I think it has been demonstrated that HS pitchers drafted early are incredibly risky, I don't think the risk of a college pitcher is anywhere close to that of a HS pitcher. Of course this is all old news.

And possibly outdated. High schoolers have made a great showing of late.

"since 1965" is also misleading. You might as well say "between 1965 and 1985", as anyone drafted later than 1985 isn't even HOF eligible yet.

Didn't this same article appear a couple weeks ago?

What's really weird is how few HOF pitchers there have been, period, in the draft era.

Carlton, Sutton, Fingers, Palmer, and Hunter were a year or two early. Were they signed to avoid the upcoming draft, or is that just a coincidence?

So the only HOF pitchers so far from the draft era are Seaver (10th round, 1st January, retarded lottery), Ryan (12th), Gossage (9th), Sutter (21st, but signed as a FA) and Eckersley (3rd).

The late 70's and 80's are famously low on obvious HOF pitchers for whatever reason. Blyleven was a 3rd round pick. Then you have the current no-doubters, with Clemens (1st), Maddux(2nd), Glavine (2nd), Johnson (2nd).

Oh and my original point was that Seaver was a first overall pick, technically, although it was the January draft and he didn't end up with that team.

His larger point seems to be that we can't identify which draft talents will be Hall of Fame caliber pitchers yet, which is true, but he's overstating it. Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina, and Curt Schilling were all first or second round picks. Their talent was obvious even at that early stage. John Smoltz fell to the 22nd round, but he had extenuating circumstances (offered a full-ride basketball scholarship that he was seemingly prepared to take).

EDIT: Beaten to the punch a bit...

And possibly outdated. High schoolers have made a great showing of late.

Not to get into the debate abut pitch counts and stuff, but 3 things have changed since most of the studies showing that HS pitchers were too risky and College pitchers were safer bets have occurred:

1: Draft bonuses have skyrocketed- 30 years ago a full scholarship was of reasonably close monetary value to the bonuses being paid by teams, many top flight prospects were undrafted- or drafted very very low because the teams were unsure they'd sign and forgo college, once even 2nd round picks were 6 figure signing bonuses that calculation changed- top prospects out of HS were less likely to go to college and more likely to sign because the money was too good to pass up.

2: Teams either did studies or were aware of studies showing that teams were overdrafting HS guys and underdrafting college guys- and changed their draft strategies accordingly (and not just the Moneyball A's either)- suddenly a HS guy who in 1980 would have been drafted 15th or so was being drafted 25th or so, and the college guy who would have been drafted 25th or so was being drafted 15th...

3: Pitching prospects, especially guys drafted out of HS are being treated radically differently than they were 15-20 years ago.

It's quite possible that all the old Bill Jamesian draft studies are now useless insofar as giving 2009 draft advice is concerned.

Heh, bb-ref lists Winfield as a Pitcher (drafted 4th overall), and though he was great in college they never intended for him to pitch.

By my count, between 1965-1990 there were only 96 pitchers taken in the top 10, or 37% pitchers.

Hitters do indeed do a lot better. Just a quick glance has 12 top-10 picks with HOF careers (Bonds, Mcgwire, Thomas, Arod, Chipper, Reggie, Griffey, Molitor, Winfield, Puckett, Fisk, Yount).

If Kevin Brown doesn't deserve to make the Hall of Fame, I'm a lug nut. (And Dick Allen too, with apologies to Bill James for the phrase).

To be honest, what does getting a hof career pitcher really matter to a team? it's his first 6-7 years that matter, if you can get two all-star quality seasons out of them, then it has to be counted as a win.

Heh. I went in just to post this.

Gooden 84-89: 100-39, 2.64 ERA (132 ERA+), 1291 IP. I'd say that's a success.

Are fewer HS pitchers being taken early? I believe this is the case and one of the biggest reasons there is a recent upsurge in success, so essentially the tale could be only the best of the best HS pitchers are worth the money/risk......allow lesser HS pitchers to fall and pay them less.

To be honest, what does getting a hof career pitcher really matter to a team? it's his first 6-7 years that matter, if you can get two all-star quality seasons out of them, then it has to be counted as a win.

Did anybody here read the last two paragraphs of the article (RTL2PoFA)?

In conclusion, if the Nats draft a Hall of Fame pitcher this year with one of their first two picks, they will be the first team in history to unearth such a Magnificent Creature in the first 10 rounds. Of course, "there has to be a first time." But it's far more likely that they will get a pitcher who will be a bust, or who will be very good for a few years, then blow up, like Prior or Mulder. Or they may draft a shooting star who keeps trying to recreate his career, like Kerry Wood. Or they may draft one of those strong-armed guys who goes 140-140, which isn't so bad.

As I have said, I would draft Stephen Strasburg at No. 1 overall as long as the price is sane. That's to say, as long as the price reflects the sobering reality of highly drafted pitchers in the last 44 years. What is that price?

I think Boswell's point concerns the cash it takes to sign a #1 pitcher in 2009; he's merely using the HOF as the best case scenario for the investment.

"since 1965" is also misleading. You might as well say "between 1965 and 1985", as anyone drafted later than 1985 isn't even HOF eligible yet.

And 1970-1982 covers the HoF "drought" between Blyleven (I'm assuming he makes it soon) and Clemens, who of course isn't eligible yet (and may never make it-if not make that 1983 (Maddux)). So only a meager handful of drafted pitchers are in as of now-hell Ryan is the only pure starter who got drafted (Seaver was an amateur FA, amazingly enough), Eck a hybrid.

So the only HOF pitchers so far from the draft era are Seaver (10th round, 1st January, retarded lottery), Ryan (12th), Gossage (9th), Sutter (21st, but signed as a FA) and Eckersley (3rd).

Seaver and Sutter were signed by the Mets and Cubs as free agents, and Ryan, Gossage, and Eckersley's time with the teams that drafted them aren't a big part of their Hall of Fame cases. It's a safe assumption that everybody who isn't in the Hall yet will eventually be linked to steroids, so you could argue that no team has ever made a Hall of Fame pitcher draft pick.

Clemens was a #19 pick? Man, that was one sorry-looking draft.

the 18 guys before him only a couple had a semblemnce of a decent MLB career, so that's da suck.

Another probable HOF hitter drafted top 10 is Derek Jeter

Kevin Brown's at least borderline in terms of HOF case. gut feeling is that he won't make it but he's certainly on par or better than some of the back end guys on the OF list.