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Friday, June 26, 2009

NBC Sports/Gleeman: Frank Thomas is the most underrated hitter of all time

A 6-foot-5, 250-pound mountain of a man who played tight end at Auburn and was a massive slugger from the moment that he arrived in the majors as a 22-year-old in 1990, the sheer magnitude of Thomas’ physical size and offensive numbers made a fan in me immediately. And now, two decades later, I’m here to tell you that he’s the most underrated hitter in the history of baseball. Seriously.

Because of what has happened to power numbers and power hitters during the past decade or so Thomas is often talked about as just another great slugger from this era, but that misses the boat in a big way. Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball and surely everyone would agree that at 29 years old he’s on track to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but look at his numbers compared to Thomas’ stats at the same age: 

               G       PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     OPS+
Pujols      1312     5696     .334     .426     .628     171
Thomas      1076     4789     .330     .452     .600     182

Pujols has hit .334 with a 1.054 OPS, whereas Thomas hit .330 with a 1.052 OPS through the age of 29. Plus, Thomas’ twenties came in a slightly lower-scoring era, which is why his adjusted OPS+ of 182 tops Pujols at 171. Pujols has two MVPs and one batting title while twice leading the league in OPS. Before his 30th birthday Thomas had two MVPs and one batting title while leading the league in OPS four times.

Coot Veal and Cot Deal Posted: June 26, 2009 at 10:53 PM | 49 comment(s)
  Related News: General, History, Hall of Fame, Chi White Sox, Oakland

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   1. Srul Itza  Posted: June 26, 2009 at 11:15 PM (#3234919)
Preaching to the choir here, although Pujols is obviously the far, Far, FAR better fielder and baserunner.
   2. El Hombre Triple MVP (Alex)  Posted: June 26, 2009 at 11:38 PM (#3234933)
Most underrated ever?

His competition, among greats: Mel Ott, Rogers Hornsby, Frank Robinson, Johnny Mize, Honus Wagner are some good ones.
   3. Ryan Jones  Posted: June 26, 2009 at 11:55 PM (#3234941)
Considering I keep forgetting about his existence, I'm going to have to pick Mel Ott as most underrated.

Of course, the fact that it took 28 years for the Hall of Fame to figure out that Mize deserved enshrinement is probably a point in his favour.
   4. Howie Menckel  Posted: June 26, 2009 at 11:55 PM (#3234942)
Right, this would have to be hitting-only.

But most underrated hitter of the last 30 years?

He's got a great case. I've always felt he and Pujols were kindred hitting spirits.
Albert's glove is just overkill - like if Jessica Alba had a physics degree or something.
   5. mex4173  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 12:00 AM (#3234946)
Considering I keep forgetting about his existence, I'm going to have to pick Mel Ott as most underrated.


Ditto.
   6. Best Regards, Larry Mahnken  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 12:05 AM (#3234948)
Considering I keep forgetting about his existence, I'm going to have to pick Mel Ott as most underrated.
Wouldn't that say more about you than Mel Ott?
   7. Srul Itza At Home  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 12:48 AM (#3234968)
One other name to consider is Eddie Matthews. At least Mel Ott remains a popular clue fill in the NY Times Crossword.
   8. Crispix Attacks is in the best shape of his life.  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 01:09 AM (#3234975)
Billy Williams is the only Hall of Famer active in the mid-1970s whom I had never heard of until I'd been regularly visiting BTF for over five years, so he's my pick.
   9. OCF  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 01:14 AM (#3234980)
Stan Musial. I mean everyone knows he was an all-time great, but it still seems to be that a lot of people in making lists of all-time greats manage to forget his name. (Which is also why the only nickname I want to hear for Pujols is "El Hombre" - for the implied homage.)

Or Mathews, of course. There's a respectable argument that Mathews might have been as good as Schmidt as a hitter - maybe even a hair better. (Schmidt was the better overall player, primarily because of his glove.)
   10. Drexl Spivey  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 01:16 AM (#3234981)
"Billy Williams is the only Hall of Famer active in the mid-1970s whom I had never heard of until I'd been regularly visiting BTF for over five years, so he's my pick."

Wouldn't that say more about you than Billy Williams?
   11. Walt Davis  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 02:06 AM (#3234990)
The best thing is that Frank Thomas and Jeff Bagwell have the same birthday and were each other's most similar players for several years.

Can we call Thomas under-rated? He won 2 MVPs, finished 2nd another time and 3rd twice more during that great run. He did deserve a lot more AS appearances but he was hardly ignored. I guess you could claim he's ignored in an 'all-time' sense but then the comparison to Pujols doesn't make sense plus you have to take note of his excellent but not great post-29 career (this was probably his under-rated period in my opinion).
   12. SoSHially Unacceptable  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 02:10 AM (#3234992)
What's his rating?
   13. Harry Balsagne Teaches The Correct Way to Hit!!  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 02:44 AM (#3234999)
Jessica Alba


Am I the only heterosexual male on the planet who doesn't think Jessica Alba is hot?

Never got that one.
   14. jyjjy  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 03:28 AM (#3235004)
probably

http://thetrawbros.files.wordpress.com/2007/12/jessica-alba-bikini-07.jpg
   15. vortex of dissipation  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 03:45 AM (#3235005)
Am I the only heterosexual male on the planet who doesn't think Jessica Alba is hot?


No, youre not.
   16. CFiJ  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 04:16 AM (#3235009)
What's not to like? Probably NSFW.
   17. Nathan Kunkel  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 05:04 AM (#3235013)
unfortunately for Billy Williams, he put up two tremendous seasons during the Johnny Bench era and came up short for MVP both times. while growing up, i thought of him as something of a mini-Aaron. AND he had that consecutive games streak, which gave him plenty of ink during his playing days.

what he was not able to accomplish was the padding of his counting stats at the end of his career, thus falling short of 3000 hits, 500 homers, and other round number notables.

i've never thought of Musial or Ott as underrated. even now, i can visualize their batting stances from pictures seen as a boy. when you think "national league in the 1930s", isn't Ott one of the players you come up with? Same for Musial in the 40s and early 50s.
   18. Non-Fat Listachio Ice Cream  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 05:15 AM (#3235014)
I'm gonna go with Ott. I'd always thought he was an over-rated NY bandwagon East Coast Media bias candidate until I read here about the whole NL-not-scoring-runs-like-crazy-after-1930 thing.

TMYK.
   19. RollingWave  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 05:18 AM (#3235015)
It depends on how he does in the voting, but yeah, if people lump him together with McGwire / McGriff / Belle / Juan-Gone and the likes then he is underrated.
   20. AndrewJ  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 06:35 AM (#3235026)
Eh, Frank Thomas was the American League MVP. Twice. That's hardly "underrated" in my book.

Interesting tidbit: This Frank Thomas held the White Sox record for single-season home runs from 1993 to 1997. The other Frank Thomas held the Mets record for single-season home runs from 1962 through 1974. That's got to be the only time two same-named players held team single-season records in the same category...
   21. Hello Rusty Kuntz, Goodbye Rusty Cars  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 08:05 AM (#3235044)
Vin Scully says things like "If you're like me, you were a big fan of Mel Ott and the New York Giants when you were growing up" a lot.
   22. Darren  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 08:06 AM (#3235045)
Isn't Ott sort of overrated, though, by his home park? I always thought of him as an all-time great, HOFer, so I'm not seeing it. On the other hand, nobody talks about Frank Thomas that way, or as anywhere near the player Pujols is. His HOF vote will be interesting.
   23. Nathan Kunkel  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 08:08 AM (#3235047)
"Eh, Frank Thomas was the American League MVP. Twice. That's hardly "underrated" in my book."

Since Gleeman is looking at an historical context and not contemporary, MVP isn't a significant measure. His aim is at 'perception is reality' thinking: do you view Thomas as a hitting peer to Williams, Ruth and Aaron, or is he just one of those 90s sluggers? Gleeman's take is that most will see him as the later, and de facto that becomes Thomas's historical reality.
   24. AndrewJ  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 08:28 AM (#3235052)
Hmm... Other candidates for "most underrated hitter ever":

Dick Allen
Home Run Baker
Willie McCovey
Gene Tenace
   25. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Marching Through Georgia  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 09:12 AM (#3235073)
Isn't Ott sort of overrated, though, by his home park?

Judge that for yourself. Here's what you get if you neutralize various players' stats to a 2008 NL neutral park, listed in the order of OPS. Of course you also have to take longevity into account, but as we might have suspected, Thomas and Musial stand out pretty distinctly.

Frank Thomas: .308 BA, 38 HR, 121 RBI, .998 OPS

Stan Musial .332 BA, 25 HR, 105 RBI, .977 OPS

Mel Ott: .305 BA, 30 HR, 102 RBI, .949 OPS

Willie McCovey: .287 BA, 36 HR, 109 RBI, .942 OPS

Dick Allen: .310 BA, 35 HR, 119 RBI, .939 OPS

Eddie Mathews: .289 BA, 38 HR, 109 BA, .939 OPS

Gene Tenace: .277 BA, 25 HR, 84 RBI, .920 OPS (124 walks don't hurt that)

Billy Williams: .298 BA, 29 HR, 102 RBI, .875 OPS

Carl Yastrzemski: .293 BA, 23 HR, 95 RBI, .862 OPS

Home Run Baker: .324 BA, 10 HR**, 115 BA, .844 OPS

**which seems to show a lack of adjustment for dead ball era conditions
   26. Nathan Kunkel  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 11:23 AM (#3235158)
a beaut of a list, Andy, a real beaut. brings weight to this thread through post 24.

[edit] i'd like to see Aaron, Williams and Ruth included for good measure
   27. Jeff K.  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 11:38 AM (#3235167)
**which seems to show a lack of adjustment for dead ball era conditions

Depending on which you're talking about, I don't think one should. Spitball/not, switching out balls more, sure. Adjusting rate stats, sure. "Approach" or "mindset" or anything like that, as related to counting stats? Not for me. I don't like it any more than I'd like someone running numbers on what Ichiro would hit if he decided to approach PAs like a typical MLB player.
   28. Steve Treder  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 11:39 AM (#3235168)
Isn't Ott sort of overrated, though, by his home park?

No. This is a common misconception. The Polo Grounds obviously greatly inflated Ott's HR totals -- but at least as severely depressed his singles and doubles totals (and thus his batting average) and his overall offensive production. The Polo Grounds was a great home run park, but a neutral-to-slight-pitchers'-park overall.
   29. Darren  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 11:50 AM (#3235172)
Steve,

That's my (poorly made) point. His inflated HRs overrated him while other factors underrated him, putting him in his proper context--a certain HOF/all-time great. One of my Dad's favorites too, so there's that to consider.
   30. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 11:58 AM (#3235177)
When I think underrated hitter, I think about someone like Bobby Grich or Ron Santo, actually. Excellent but not great hitters who a lot of people don't think of as even being excellent hitters.
   31. Steve Treder  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 12:06 PM (#3235182)
His inflated HRs overrated him while other factors underrated him, putting him in his proper context--a certain HOF/all-time great.

OK, I see what you're saying. Still, though, I'd say that Ott's home park distorted him, but didn't make him overrated in his time. And in the current era, most of the discussion of Ott that I see (and there isn't much; he has been sort of forgotten) tends to dismiss his HR total as a ballpark artifact, without taking into proper consideration how the ballpark shaped his entire stat line, not just the HR column.
   32. Nathan Kunkel  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 12:12 PM (#3235184)
"without taking into proper consideration how the ballpark shaped his entire stat line, not just the HR column"

well stated on multiple levels.
   33. Darren  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 12:18 PM (#3235190)
Grich is a decent "underrated of all time" guy. He played his career while I was growing up and I cannot believe how little I realized how good he was.
   34. Best Regards, Larry Mahnken  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 12:25 PM (#3235194)
The most overrated player of all time is Neifi Perez.
   35. cardsfanboy  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 12:38 PM (#3235197)
The best thing is that Frank Thomas and Jeff Bagwell have the same birthday and were each other's most similar players for several years.

my favorite birthday trivia is "Ken Griffey Jr is the second best baseball player born on November 21st in Donora Pa, who is the best?"
   36. cardsfanboy  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 12:41 PM (#3235201)

Since Gleeman is looking at an historical context and not contemporary, MVP isn't a significant measure. His aim is at 'perception is reality' thinking: do you view Thomas as a hitting peer to Williams, Ruth and Aaron, or is he just one of those 90s sluggers? Gleeman's take is that most will see him as the later, and de facto that becomes Thomas's historical reality.

but he is also comparing Thomas to Pujols in the same article, and comparing Pujols perception at 29 and not Thomas perception at 29 but when his career ended. It's a weird argument in this case. At 29 Thomas was viewed pretty similar to how Pujols is now perceived. He is more or less arguing that Thomas should be remembered in that context, even though he had a decline phase.
   37. David Nieporent (now, with child)  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 12:56 PM (#3235209)
Am I the only heterosexual male on the planet who doesn't think Jessica Alba is hot?
No, you're not; according to Google, there are approximately 1.3 million Americans -- and presumably many more elsewhere on the planet -- who are legally blind. Also, we need to discount heterosexual males under the age of 10 or so.
   38. Cabbage  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 01:03 PM (#3235211)
#35

That's some excellent trivia. I'm going to start using it.
   39. cardsfanboy  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 01:14 PM (#3235218)
#35

That's some excellent trivia. I'm going to start using it.

of course the fans only voted one of them into the all century team.
   40. Jeff K.  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 01:48 PM (#3235230)
The most overrated player of all time is Neifi Perez.

No, sorry, not even really that close. Rey Ordonez was looking like he'd be a reasonable contender, but he was properly valued long before he could enter the area.

Actually, and this isn't systemic or anything (I didn't start with the notion that it'd be someone who was still great), but it's much, much, much more likely that Nolan Ryan is the most overrated player of all time.
   41. Nathan Kunkel  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 02:00 PM (#3235237)
I haven't thought concretely about this much, but length and quality of decline phase is likely key to (my) perception of 'inner circle' HOF, especially for hitters. When you look at Williams and Ruth, Cobb and Speaker, Schmidt and Aaron and Clemente, now Bonds, the decline is so short that there is no first and second half of career discussion, as there is with Thomas, Banks, Murphy, Mathews, Griffey and so on. I suppose that's why we admire Ramirez and Rodriguez so far, they just haven't demonstratively shown us a real decline setting in. I remember posters here in ca. 2003 talking about the demise of Ramirez, and lookey how that played out.
   42. Dewitty_Pun  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 02:08 PM (#3235241)
Here is the Sporting News' greatest 100 players of all time. It's over 10 years old explaining Clemens' low ranking, the absence of Griffey, etc. Arkey Vaughn is completely absent from the list, though making him my choice for most underrated.
   43. Dewitty_Pun  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 02:15 PM (#3235245)
Looking more carefully at that list:

Clemente over Frank Robinson?
George Sisler over Mel Ott?
Lou Brock over Joe Morgan?
   44. Steve Treder  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 02:16 PM (#3235246)
Arkey Vaughn is completely absent from the list

He's probably historically the very most underrated player ... top 5-or-so all-time at the most crucial and demanding defensive position other than pitcher/catcher, yet nobody realized it then, virtually nobody does to this day, and the Hall of Fame took half a centry to elect him, while the entire time electing inferior shortstop after inferior shortstop.
   45. Jeff K.  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 02:16 PM (#3235247)
Joe Jackson as the 35th best player of all time? Um, no. Not for 7 full seasons and 2 more with GP in the 120s. Hell of a hitter, obviously, but no.

Incidentally, randomness is wondering how the hell he got 512 PAs in 122 games with Cleveland in 1914. Now that I do the math that only extrapolates to 679 PA/162 and is not quite as insane as I thought, but it's still impressive for a hitter of his style rather than those who litter the top of that leaderboard.
   46. Best Regards, Larry Mahnken  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 02:17 PM (#3235248)
The most underrated hitter of all time is Matt Wieters.

/seriously, that long?
   47. Dewitty_Pun  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 02:18 PM (#3235250)
SABR's List
   48. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Marching Through Georgia  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 10:36 PM (#3235608)
a beaut of a list, Andy, a real beaut. brings weight to this thread through post 24.

[edit] i'd like to see Aaron, Williams and Ruth included for good measure

I was out all day, but belatedly, here are those three along with the others I'd already posted.

Ruth: .334 BA, 44 HR, 138 RBI, 1.137 OPS

Williams: .338 BA, 36 HR, 123 RBI, 1.097 OPS

Aaron: .317 BA, 39 HR, 125 BA, .963 OPS

(from before)

Frank Thomas: .308 BA, 38 HR, 121 RBI, .998 OPS

Stan Musial .332 BA, 25 HR, 105 RBI, .977 OPS

Mel Ott: .305 BA, 30 HR, 102 RBI, .949 OPS

Willie McCovey: .287 BA, 36 HR, 109 RBI, .942 OPS

Dick Allen: .310 BA, 35 HR, 119 RBI, .939 OPS

Eddie Mathews: .289 BA, 38 HR, 109 BA, .939 OPS

Gene Tenace: .277 BA, 25 HR, 84 RBI, .920 OPS (124 walks don't hurt that)

Billy Williams: .298 BA, 29 HR, 102 RBI, .875 OPS

Carl Yastrzemski: .293 BA, 23 HR, 95 RBI, .862 OPS

Home Run Baker: .324 BA, 10 HR**, 115 BA, .844 OPS

**which seems to show a lack of adjustment for dead ball era conditions

-------------

SABR list

While I realize that that list is from 1999, doesn't it still seem to have some really weird choices on it? It seems totally weighted towards older generations of players, and doesn't seem to factor the competition level in at all.
   49. OCF  Posted: June 27, 2009 at 11:30 PM (#3235626)
About that SABR list - yes, I agree with Andy that it has some weird choices.

Through its 1999 election the Hal of Merit had chosen (I think) 202 members.

The following people on the SABR list weren't in the Hall of Merit in 1999:

1. Rollie Fingers, Ryne Sandberg, Eddie Murray, Paul Molitor, Wade Boggs, Dennis Eckersley, Mark McGwire, Rickey Henderson, Ozzie Smith, Nolan Ryan, Cal Ripken, Tony Gwynn.

They weren't eligible for the HoM in 1999 but have been elected in the 10 years since then, Most of them didn't have to wait for long, except for Fingers, who spent 11 years on the ballot.

2. Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey, Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens.

Not HoM eligible even now. None of them will have to wait, once their turn comes. (But seriously - what kind of 1999 list ranks Bonds below Griffey??)

- so far that's 16 people out just by retirement timing. That leaves 84 on the SABR list to compare to our 202. That brings up the rest of the list on non-HoMers on this list:

3. Addie Joss, Kirby Puckett, Luis Aparicio, Dizzy Dean, Lou Brock, Pie Traynor.

These guys? Not in the top 200 as far as we're concerned.

I could pick out a few more who are in the HoM but pretty clearly not in our top 100, just by our voting patterns.
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