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Maybe $12M is about right for what Lowell is likely to do, but players expect to be paid based on what they did (at least when it is to their advantage). Given his 2007 season, Lowell seems likely to get a deal more like Posada's on the open market. If Boston's haggling over relatively small numbers with Lowell causes him to leave, I'd be somewhat surprised if they turned around and met Boras' current demand for $300+M. Hard to fit both deals in the same budget.
He talked about it this summer. When asked about the hated Yankees he said he didn't hate them, and a lot of the guys over there were important to his career.
Actually, it's mentioned in the part Repoz linked. It's brief, but it's there.
I'm not sure what move I would dislike more- signing A-Rod for a crap-ton of money over 7 years, or trading promising youngsters like Ellsbury, Lester, Bowden, Lowrie, etc.
Why? It would be a stroke of genius. Force their rival to pay way too money for the biggest choker in the history of sport? I think all Yankee fans should be happy if that occurred. It at least insures that the Red Sox won't win in all.
Maybe I'm being obtuse, but this is meant as sarcasm, right? If A-Rod hit 56 HRs while playing half of his games at the Stadium, how much more would we have to skew his HR totals up by if he played at Fenway? Would 800 be a mortal lock if he played out the rest of career with the Monster down the line?
Yes, its sarcasm. It seems that most Yankee fans think he is a choker and they can't win with him. Dumping him on the Red Sox should solve all their problems.
OTOH - if he steals Lowell, and the Red Sox DON'T sign ARod because the price is too steep ... well, that would be genius wouldn't it?
Anyway, in what universe does Lowell sign before ARod? If Lowell signs before the world sees what ARod gets, his agent should be fired.
The thing is, we don't really know how hot teams are for A-Rod. In fact, if I were Mike Lowell, I'd want to sign before A-Rod, just to avoid looking like "the consolation prize"
Keep dreaming if you think A-Rod will sign for only 7 years. Yankees offered 8 and he got pissy about it. Maybe he'll sign for 8 somewhere but Boras will try and hold out for 9-10.
Just a thought. IF the Yankees really don't sign Rodriguez, I expect the Yankees to sign Lowell, and the Red Sox to toy around with trading for Miguel Cabrera, decide against it and sign some relatively cheap short-term option for 3B (or 1B if they feel like moving Youkilis, but I doubt it). Ensberg is the first name to come to mind.
Why do you expect the Yankees to sign Lowell? Why couldn't they get Ensburg to platoon with Betemit, or sign Mike Lamb?
EDIT: Actually, Lamb and Ensburg would make a pretty good 3B platoon, wouldn't they?
Only if they agree to play 81 games in Fenway.
I'm sorry, but I don't think the Yankees or the Red Sox are interested in recreating the 2006 Astros
Because the Yankees need somebody they can expect to be an impact player if they're going to maintain a 94-95 win talent level, and the Yankees are the Yankees and will seek the biggest-name alternative to Rodriguez. That happens to be Lowell. Maybe I'm not explaining it well, but Lowell to the Yankees makes all the sense in the world to me.
home: 993
road: 767
2006:
home: 763
road: 866
2006
home - .260/.327/.436
away - .310/.352/.514
2007
home - .373/.418/.575
away - .276/.339/.428
EDIT: beaten to the punch. Dang.
I dunno, for his career he's batting .278/.330/.456 at Yankee Stadium (97 plate appearances). That's about in keeping with his career line of .280/.344/.468
last two seasons at Yankee Stadium:
2007 - .324/.378/.500 (37 PAs)
2006 - .308/.341/.487 (41 PAs)
I'm sure they are aware of this. I'm betting the Yanks are jerking Lowell around to try and get the Sox to pay more. I would be stunned if they were serious about getting him.
Lowell did just fine playing in FLA for many years (except for 2005), so I don't see him completely tanking in Yankee uniform. The details of his pending demise are being greatly exaggerated.
Finally, it really makes ALL the sense in the world for the Red Sox to sign A-rod. Youks is great at 1b, A-rod is arguably the better 3bman defensively, the Sox will free up a lot of money once they trade Coco (this offseason), Lugo (next offseason), and let Manny leave as a free agent. The Sox have the payroll to afford A-rod and not miss a beat, and he makes the Red Sox prohibitive favorites in the AL (and therefore in baseball) for the next 5 years. The Sox have no excuse for letting A-rod return to the Yankees or go to Anaheim.
Of course, I am eagerly waiting the wave of John Kerry-like flipflopping that will take place in Sox Nation when A-rod dons a Boston uniform. I imagine shrinks in New England will see a record increase in patients... hmmm, can you go higher than 100%?
No, you're explaining it just fine. You just happen to be quite a bit off base in your assumption about the Yankees always going for the biggest name FA. The last time they signed the biggest FA on the market was what, 2001? They didn't go after Beltran a couple of years ago when they had an obvious need and he was practically throwing himself at them. Maybe your image of who the Yankees are and how they operate needs a little revision.
That sure was a smart move.
I've always been skeptical about the degree to which teams really do this.
If the Yankees are really just jerking Lowell around, then that won't really come as a surprise to the Red Sox either. They're not going to up their offer to compete with a nonexistent offer from the Yankees. The reason the Red Sox would pay more for Lowell, in order to keep him away from the Yankees, is because they think there's really a chance that the Yankees would actually sign him.
A "drive the price up" bluff, like every bluff, isn't really effective if there's no chance it's real.
If it happens, I would have a very hard time accepting it. It would give the phrase "self-hating Red Sox fan" a whole new meaning, to say nothing of having to re-program my 2-year-old to stop saying "poopy head" every time baseball announcers say "A-Rod."
[sigh]
I wasn't defending it, or any other recent Yankee move for that matter. Just pointing out that the Baron seems to have a somewhat dated take on their MO.
Well, there's no guarantee that it works, but the Yanks may think that meeting with Lowell's agents may them extra leverage with the Sox. If not, they still met with a potential thirdbase candidate, which is probably useful in some sense.
A "drive the price up" bluff, like every bluff, isn't really effective if there's no chance it's real.
Well, some people do seem to think it's a real possibility. I just don't happen to one of them. I obviously don't know where the Red Sox stand. Just some meaningless speculation on my part.
I hope it doesn't happen, but I think it was their plan all along. Let Mike Lowell leave, and then pursue A Rod.
Heck Boston Dirtdogs has huge headstone picture up with Mike Lowells name on it.
Hows that for fans sending a message to management.
I disagree. My interpretation of Baron's point was that the Yankees have gone after the biggest names every offseason, not necessarily free agents. Despite not signing the biggest name since 2001 (Giambi), the Yankees have gone after big names every offseason. Lately, they've used their financial clout to take on "bad" contracts of very good players: Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown, Alex Rodriguez. This doesn't count Bobby Abreu, acquired in-season. They also traded for Javier Vazquez. Each of those players were known to be on the trade block IIRC, and each of those players were among the best option, if not the best option, of available players at the time.
In that time, they also signed Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, Gary Sheffield, Paul Quantrill, and Roger Clemens (with varying degrees of success), each of whom were the best or among the "biggest name" free agents at their positions.
So while the Yankees may not have signed the de facto "best" player on the market (Vlad, Beltran, etc.), their MO really didn't change in those years: acquire the biggest names and best talents using their considerable financial resources. They've done very little "hole-plugging," which what I read between your lines.
That they are now building around a crop of prospects doesn't change that fact.
Hows that for fans sending a message to management.
Meh - if the Dirt Dogs burned an A-Rod effigy outside the Cask & Flagon, now THAT would be a sign.
Well, your interpretation doesn't seem to have a lot in common with what he actually said, which is that he believes they will sign Mike Lowell because they always sign the biggest name FA.
EDIT: and he just said it again.
the Yankees are the Yankees and will seek the biggest-name alternative to Rodriguez.
I didn't say anything there about free agents; if the biggest-name alternative happens to be a free agent, great, if through a trade, they'll do that too. However, please note what I did not say: I did not say the Yankees always sign the best player/biggest name on the FA market every year. That obviously is not true. But when the Yankees have a need, they tend to seek out the biggest name available to fit that need--for instance, a couple years ago they needed a CF, and landed on Johnny Damon. When they needed a third baseman, they went after Alex Rodriguez. When they needed a right fielder, they went after Gary Sheffield (though they should have gone after Vladimir Guerrero, of course).
And why shouldn't they? They have effectively unlimited money. When they have a hole, they should be seeking the best possible player to fill it. Which is why letting Alex Rodriguez go away is insane.
Actually, they traded for Mike Lamb when Boone tore up his knee. Rodriguez fell into their lap a couple of months later when another team blew it's chance at him.
Unless of course, they don't really have unlimited money.
actually thats not a headstone, but a representation of the signs in massachusetts when you cross town lines.
and please dont mistake dirtdogs for the fan perspective.
my bad.
Never been to Mass.
Hmm, I thought that they were the pulse of "the nation"?
To get a big bat, why not sign Barry Bonds? He could probably be had for one or two years, limiting the long-term risk, and for far less than the $30M+ per year that A-Rod would command. And the Yankees don't have to trade Phil Hughes or other good young players to get him. As a DH, Bonds might be able to play 130-140 games. Sure, Bonds brings all sorts of, ahem, baggage. But this is the New York Yankees; they've handled more baggage than LaGuardia Airport.
My preference would be for the Yankees to sign A-Rod. But if that doesn't work out...
I don't know, I wouldn't be surprised at all. I don't know what kind of offer the Red Sox would make, but I could see them doing something like $8/225, and then not really negotiating anything past that. It probably isn't enough to get A-Rod, but I could see them at least giving it a try.
I mean, what big team wouldn't make that offer? Boras probably has 2 or 3 of those sitting on his desk right now.
* Other than Miguel Cabrera. But I totally believe Cash when he says Joba and Hughes are untradeable, so I don't see that happening.
The Yankees have eleventy billion DHs already. I don't think their efforts to get that "platoon" rule change put in for 2008 will be successful.
Because this is New York we're talking about.
in some ways it (he) has a fan perspective. Like mocking opposing players - especially yankees, etc. But often it is just personal hatchet jobs on Sox players, similar to bad columnists (Dan Shaughnessy in the boston case). they went after Renteria, Nomar, and Pedro Martinez pretty nastily.
They spread the false story that Nomar said he didnt want his 04 WS ring. And because of their association with the Globe website, it was picked up by other media outlets.
And in 2006 when Martinez first pitched at Fenway w/ the Mets, dirtdogs tried to get fans to boo him, and when the crowd cheered wildly, they tried to make it seem like it was only visiting Mets fans. from that month
Well, actually, I only count two (Giambi and Damon; am I missing somebody?), and neither of them is really any good. They're gambling that Giambi will be a stud again, and then when he isn't... what? Damon's bat is not DH material.
Basically it boils down to, the current plan is to share the job between Giambi and Damon, and they're both highly paid ex-stars, so we don't have room for another DH without having to bench Damon. Except that DH really is quite likely to be a need for them.
Personally, I'd be OK with their getting somebody else to DH (or maybe platoon with Giambi there) and just letting Damon spot Cabrera in center in smaller parks or with Wang on the mound.
Well, you named the wrong OFer, so in that sense, yes.
Matsui. But that's sort of an instead of Damon situation. Anyway, it was a joke.
I think the current plan is for Matsui and Giambi to share DH, with Matsui playing some LF and Damon sliding over to CF or resting on those days, and Giambi playing 1B once in a while. I don't think they're really counting on Giambi being healthy and/or effective enough to give them more than about 400 PA. It's reasonable to say that DH is likely to be a need for them, but if that's the argument, then the need is for a right-handed DH.
More like three. I figure that Giambi will miss half the season in 2008 anyway, and then is gone. Matsui could stumble around LF for one more season, hitting around average for a LF. Damon could be the 4th OF, or could be traded.
I don't see how people were all excited about NYY getting Miggy Cabrera, who is basically a 1B/DH, but can't come up with a way to get Barry Bonds in the lineup in 2008.
Because this is New York we're talking about.
Well, there's no guarantee Barry would say yes. But the Yankees' supposed mistreatment of his dad was a long time ago. The Yankees could offer him more money than anyone else, plus a lineup that would virtually guarantee him 100+ RBI and 100+ Runs, and a great shot at the postseason. That might be enough to change his mind.
Compared to Matsui, wouldn't you? Would you really DH Damon and play Matsui in LF instead of the other way around?
Well, I wasn't all excited about it, precisely because he is a 1B/DH. Of course, if the Baron is right about money being irrelevant, the Yankees can go ahead and trade for Cabrera and sign Bonds, and then just release Giambi and Damon.
Is there no thought of Matsui playing some 1B? He seems like a decent enough athlete to adjust.
Granted, I didn't really notice who was the better defensive CF of the two, but don't the metrics still seem to say that Damon is the better defender, even with his injuries?
Someone suggested that there is some sort of X factor we don't know about that will prevent the Yanks from trying Matsui at first. The longer they hold off on making him a first baseman, the more I am inclined to believe that it just isn't meant to be for some unknown reason. It seems far too practical to not be tried out.
Damon is going to be an above average LFer next year, with ++ defense and slightly below average hitting (110-115 OPS+). Melky will be a plus centerfielder, his offense will improve and that arm will be a much more valuable asset in center then right. I see them hitting about the same next year myself. This notion that Damon is done comes from the fact that he's over 30 and is, IMO, absurd.
Depends on the metric.
Well, the difference in arms is approximately Nolan Ryan vs Jamie Moyer, but Damon is probably still a better flycatcher when his legs aren't barking at him. If they're both playing anyway, Damon-Cabrera-Abreu left to right seems to make more sense than any other alignment. If Melky were to stop developing as a hitter, then Matsui-Damon-Abreu would be the way to go.
It seems like that's the stronger outfield. Melky didn't get better as a hitter last year - in fact, he regressed. It's not clear that he's a very good CF. Unless there's a flyball pitcher on the mound, I don't know if Melky's defense makes up for his bat when compared to the M-D-A outfield. MDA will all be 34 next year, so Melky should have ample opportunity to sub in when they're tired, but he's still so young and raw that I'm not sure he'd be the best option for 2008.
This is assuming the Yankees don't pick up a half-decent 1B in the off-season, of course. I'm guessing they will.
you forgot Jorge Posada. C/DH
Melky was playing very well until the middle of August until he simply wore down. I don't count that as regressing as a hitter. Feel free to interpret that how you like.
you forgot Jorge Posada. C/DH
Posada has 10 games at DH since 2004.
Sure. If you think there's a statistically meaningful difference between those two very similar seasons.
MDA will all be 34 next year, so Melky should have ample opportunity to sub in when they're tired
If you rotated those guys through the DH spot and gave them each a day completely off every couple of weeks, Melky could be the fourth OF and play every day.
This is assuming the Yankees don't pick up a half-decent 1B in the off-season, of course. I'm guessing they will.
Of course, you'd have assumed that they'd have picked up a half-decent 1B in the 2006-2007 off-season too.
Posada has 10 games at DH since 2004.
That's because Torre couldn't bear the thought of possibly losing the DH. Fortunately, he didn't use this fear to rationalize carrying a third catcher. C/1B makes more sense, anyway.
i can see a 4th year with a team option, but it is ridiculous to think that they're going to give him an 8 year contract. a-rod will get 8 years from a team that needs him for 8 years, like the dodgers or angels.
and my 2 cents on this whole thing is:
1) the sox just won a world series. they're trying to be nice to lowell. still, business is business and he takes the contract on their terms or not at all.
2) we've got lars and lowrie in the pipeline. so if we don't get lowell, i can see them rotating hinske, youks at 3rd and putting ortiz in the 1B mix.
3) my prediction: the sox don't sign any big free agents and begin the work of making a 2010 or 2011 run at the WS.
there is just no urgency in boston right now for the sox to do something stupid (like sign a-rod for 8 years). if boras tells them he won't talk about anything for less than 7, then the sox won't talk to him.
Technically, they did: Doug Mientkiewicz. His fielding was the half that was decent. (Ba-da-boom.)
Varitek and Drew come to mind. Lugo is for four years, so was Renteria right?
This is pure fantasy. Papi isn't going to play first except in interleague games. He not a butcher, but he has bad wheels and the Sox don't want to risk losing his bat.
Varitek and Drew come to mind. Lugo is for four years, so was Renteria right?
And Ortiz (4 years), and Dice K (6 years). And Hansen (4 years) for that matter.
They may want that to be the perception, but it's nothing close to a line in the sand.
And the idea that the Sox have in mind a 2010/11 run at the World Series is completely absurd, unless in the context of making a serious run every year from now *through* then.
They gave four years to Lugo, you'd think they'd be willing to give a not all that bad player a ten-year contract.
From Lowell's perspective, business is also business. This is his last big contract, and although he may prefer to remain in Boston if things are more or less equal, it's not like he has a career long relationship with the Red Sox. Lowell remembers that Boston tried to trade him for Helton this year. If Boston is offering 3 years at $12M/year but the market will pay 4 years at $13M/year, the obvious decision is to go.
I guess we know now why Pedro couldn't get the fourth year that is reserved for true stars like Julio Lugo.
I think you have the wrong HOF 5-tool black OF who was the son of a black OF.
If that's true then Yankee fans can rest easy knowing there is no chance they have to face a Red Sox team with A-Rod. Unless they offer him 200 million over 3 years or something.
The extension + current contract that A-Rod turned down was 8 years, 231 million. The next contract he signs will be for more than that. Guaranteed.
Is it that clear the Red Sox wouldn't exercise their 2009 option on Manny? If Manny had a good 2008 and Boston hasn't brought in a big hitter such as A-Rod, would they still let him go? After perhaps losing Lowell this year? Even if Drew wasn't any better than in 2007?
Pedro was kind of a different case, in that his shoulder was being held together literally by threads.
It seems like teams don't use the "major bump in payroll for one season" too much. The Cubs were talking about going after Beltran, but the word was that they wouldn't do that unless they also got rid of Sosa's contract. I didn't understand at the time why you couldn't just have both for one year if it came to that.
I'll just have a new player on my team to trash for the next 8 years.
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