It’s not exactly how Perez wanted to perform in his walk year.

Maybe the language barrier has gotten in the way - Oliver thought he's supposed to be having a Bob Walk year.

Eh, somebody out there is still going to cut him a nice check.

His K rate is down as well, especially relative to the number of batters he's faced? Hurt, or just never that good to begin with?

Of his 86 pitches, 55 were strikes.

That's actually not a point against him.

How is his "stuff"? When I see highlights his curve seems to be looping through the zone instead of the bite of yesteryear.

But those are just snippets of observation........

Didn't some article posted on this site compare Perez to Sandy Koufax in the beginning of this season? Good times... although the team across town would gladly take him off the Mets' hands to patch up their rotation.

You know it's bad when you hear the Mets are losing 10-0 and you think "God, I hope Perez was the starter tonight." But if they did dump him from the rotation, who would they replace him with?

Eh, somebody out there is still going to cut him a nice check.

"Nice," is relative, of course, as he'll still be making more money than everyone reading this combined, but how much money has Ollie cost himself since the start of the year? Somewhere between $5 million and $8 million per year and at least three years?

Didn't some article posted on this site compare Perez to Sandy Koufax in the beginning of this season? Good times...

It was Howard Megdal, who has always been Ollie's biggest fan around these parts. It was in April of '07, you can find the thread here.

Howard, to his credit, has been pretty loyal in his support of Ollie (as a check of his BBRef page will verify) and writing as recently as May that "by every reasonable measure, Perez is everything his critics say he isn’t—and an option the Mets can ill-afford to lose when he hits free agency after the season."

We'll see how Perez does the rest of the way, but at this point his opening half of the '07 season is screaming fluke to me. His ERA the last (calender) year is 4.60, which has to be a good bit below average.

"Off"? Ollie is just plain bad.

We'll see how Perez does the rest of the way, but at this point his opening half of the '07 season is screaming fluke to me. His ERA the last (calender) year is 4.60, which has to be a good bit below average.

Actually, it isn't. In 2008, the league average ERA is 4.24. Last year, it was 4.43. Plus, the Mutts play in a pitcher's toilet...erm, park. I'd imagine the park adjusted (for NYM) league average ERA over the last year to be around 4.20.

"Bob Walk year"

Bob Walk had a 4.03 career ERA, and made an All-Star team. Just sayin'.

The Koufax thing isn't as silly as it seems in retrospect, either. Sandy was Perez's #1 Sim Score comp for age 23.

Actually, it isn't. In 2008, the league average ERA is 4.24. Last year, it was 4.43. Plus, the Mutts play in a pitcher's toilet...erm, park. I'd imagine the park adjusted (for NYM) league average ERA over the last year to be around 4.20.

I think he was saying that the ERA was worse than average - "below" meaning "worse than", not "less than".

On the plus side, his OBP is 37 points higher than Carlos Delgado's...

Oh, I misunderstood. My bad.

I'd imagine the park adjusted (for NYM) league average ERA over the last year to be around 4.20.

Well, I'm working off BBRef. Last year they have Shea's park adjusted LgERA as being 4.26 and this year at 4.07. So I'm pretty comfortable his 4.60 representing a good bit below average.

EDIT: I'm not sure what you misunderstood, but nevermind.

The Koufax thing isn't as silly as it seems in retrospect, either. Sandy was Perez's #1 Sim Score comp for age 23.

And at age 24 it was Pete Falcone. It was as silly and wildly optimistic then as it is now.

Edit: It was silly to make the comparison in 2007/08. If you had made it in 2004, when Perez looked like he was becoming a #1 starter, it wouldn't have been so silly.

How is his "stuff"? When I see highlights his curve seems to be looping through the zone instead of the bite of yesteryear.

But those are just snippets of observation........

To my untrained eye, it's not as good as it was last year, pretty much across the board. Seems like he's lost some velocity off his fastball, too.

But if they did dump him from the rotation, who would they replace him with?

Heilman!

Oh, you mean what they'd actually do? Tony Armas (Jr., hopefully)

His ERA the last (calender) year is 4.60, which has to be a good bit below average.

I thought you meant that 4.60 was below (lower than) the league average ERA, rather than the opposite. A simple misunderstanding on my part.

Ah, I see. Yeah, reading it with that in mind, I can see how that's not a well-worded sentence.

By the way, the linked thread seems to have been infested by Rob Base (although whatever he said was later expunged). I wasn't around when he went crazy - what exactly happened there? What did he do? I always disliked him and found him to be a jerk, but it seems like he went off the deep end.

By the way, the linked thread seems to have been infested by Rob Base (although whatever he said was later expunged). I wasn't around when he went crazy - what exactly happened there? What did he do? I always disliked him and found him to be a jerk, but it seems like he went off the deep end.

Others can fill in the details, but after the feud with levski died down (and got his account suspended), he started insulting Jim Furtado, sending him some pretty nasty stuff, then showing up repeatedly in threads after he was banned with more insults for Jim (really petty, immature, unfunny insults too). There may be more to it than that, I'm not sure. Why anyone defended him after the fact is beyond me (the "Free Rob Base" handles that were around for a few weeks after he was officially banned).

Is 2007 still Oliver Perez's floor?

You know it's bad when you hear the Mets are losing 10-0 and you think "God, I hope Perez was the starter tonight."

Bingo Devin, this is exactly what I was thinking when I saw the bottom line on ESPN last night. I was thinking no way that could be John Maine to that lineup. I had to go over who pitched in the CO series. I'm just glad he didn't have his fluke year this season, I can't wait till I don't have to cheer for another one of his starts.

To my untrained eye, it's not as good as it was last year, pretty much across the board. Seems like he's lost some velocity off his fastball, too.

According to fangraphs, his fastball velocity is essentially the same as last year, 90.5 to 90.3.

I guess we just overrated him last year. He has really good stuff, so it's easily to be fooled when he pitches well and to be convinced that he can consistently be that kind of pitcher. But he just can't.

Since the start of the 07 season, he has pitched 260.3 IP for the Mets and has allowed a shade over 5 runs per 9 innings. (Those UER will kill you.) He's walked 4.5 batters per 9 and has hit 17 more over those 260 IP.

"And at age 24 it was Pete Falcone. It was as silly and wildly optimistic then as it is now.

Edit: It was silly to make the comparison in 2007/08. If you had made it in 2004, when Perez looked like he was becoming a #1 starter, it wouldn't have been so silly"

Your timeline's off a bit. The age-23 comp on SS came in the offseason before the 2006 season.

As for it being optimistic, well, of course. SS provides a range of possible outcomes, so the uppermost of those potential outcomes is almost inevitably going to turn out to be optimistic. Similarly, the lowermost of those are going to be pessimistic. Perez's #4 comp that same year was John Sowders, who never pitched in the majors again. Some guys reach their potential, and some don't. That's the way it goes.

If there were an out-and-out expectation that he'd be the next Koufax, that'd be a bit much, but I don't think anyone was voicing it as more than the best-case scenario.

If there were an out-and-out expectation that he'd be the next Koufax, that'd be a bit much, but I don't think anyone was voicing it as more than the best-case scenario.

Fair enough, Vlad. Thanks for the correction on the year, my bad there.

I've been going over this for some time now. Perez's velocity appears to be down- but Fangraphs says otherwise. His breaking pitches do not appear to be remotely as sharp- is there any data out there to find out?
Notice that his LD% went from 16% to 23%, and that his fly balls are down about 20%. So there's more here than just more fly balls leaving the yard.
Also, his percentage of balls to strikes is the worst of his career-worse even than his 2005 or 2006 seasons. I mean, much worse.
Clearly, I've been the biggest optimist on Perez. But to say I'm concerned at this point is accurate. I just want to figure out why.
It is worth mentioning that part of my optimism stemmed from the fact that Perez's primary problem was mechanics, and he had come to a team with a pitching coach whose major focus was mechanics. Clearly, however, Perez's 2008 problems predate Peterson's firing.
He's a different pitcher in 2008 to my eyes, and I'm not talking about results, but process.

He's a different pitcher in 2008 to my eyes, and I'm not talking about results, but process.

The problem I run into here is that you're not viewing just the process - you're seeing the results, and your opinion of the process is colored by that. It's why scouting is so difficult, and I suspect, so unreliable.

The problem I run into here is that you're not viewing just the process - you're seeing the results, and your opinion of the process is colored by that. It's why scouting is so difficult, and I suspect, so unreliable.

This is absolutely true. You know I share your doubts about the reliability of anecdotal evidence. That's why I'd like to quantify this further, if possible. Frankly, if despite how it appears to me, his velocity is the same, his secondary pitches are breaking just as sharply as last season, and so on, then I need to reevaluate what I think I saw.
That ball/strike ratio really jumps out at me. Just look at the difference, percentage-wise:
Percentage of pitches as strikes:
2008: 59.4%
2007: 62.4%
2006: 62.0%
2005: 60.3%
2004: 64.4%

Howard, I'm not the man to ask, but I'm sure one of Hardball Times could help you look at his movement with the PITCHf/x stuff.

Another thought- it seems like when he reaches back for extra life on his fastball, it isn't there. This would explain why his average velocity is around the same, but he has regressed, performance-wise- partly because when he does reach back, his FB is more hittable, and partly becasue he may realize this, try to nibble more, and see his ball/strike ratio fall. Just a theory.

"Percentage of pitches as strikes:
2008: 59.4%
2007: 62.4%"

Unless you were actively charting pitches, would you (as a casual observer) really be able to distinguish between the former and the latter? We're talking about what, three pitches a game?

Another thought- it seems like when he reaches back for extra life on his fastball, it isn't there. This would explain why his average velocity is around the same, but he has regressed, performance-wise- partly because when he does reach back, his FB is more hittable, and partly becasue he may realize this, try to nibble more, and see his ball/strike ratio fall. Just a theory.

I mean, that's plausible I guess, but couldn't the same theory apply to any other pitcher in baseball who was struggling, in spite of maintaining velocity?

I think the most obvious explanation is still our best bet - there's nothing "wrong" with him. This is just who he is.

I really thought he had figured something out in the first two months of last season when he was averaging only 2.54 bb/9 (18 walks in 63.2 IP). I knew two months isn't really that indicative most of the time but for him to drastically cut his walk rate by that much, I figured it had to mean something. It's looking like that was a complete and utter fluke.

I mean, that's plausible I guess, but couldn't the same theory apply to any other pitcher in baseball who was struggling, in spite of maintaining velocity?

Possible, but would need to be brought out by the numbers (or disproved by them). This needs closer study. And I'm on the case.

I think the most obvious explanation is still our best bet - there's nothing "wrong" with him. This is just who he is.

If I didn't see monumental differences, I'd be inclined to agree. But seeing them, I want to see if there is statistical support for them, or if it really is just as simple as you say. I'm certainly not dismissing this possibility.

Unless you were actively charting pitches, would you (as a casual observer) really be able to distinguish between the former and the latter? We're talking about what, three pitches a game?

A couple of things- one is that the point isn't to find something a casual observer would see- it is to determine what is causing his downturn in performance. But if his first-pitch strikes are way down, for instance, this number might be 3% lower, but the number of useful strikes might be down by more. Anyone know where to find first-pitch strike data?

But if his first-pitch strikes are way down, for instance, this number might be 3% lower, but the number of useful strikes might be down by more. Anyone know where to find first-pitch strike data?

Baseball reference has it.

49% this year, 55% the year before.

Anyone know where to find first-pitch strike data?

Howard,

Go to BB-Ref, to a player page. Under the general pitching statistics, it should say "Pitch Data Summary - Show or Hide" - click that and you'll have it.

FWIW, He threw 59% 1st pitch strikes in '04 and 55% last year. This year? 49%

FWIW, He threw 59% 1st pitch strikes in '04 and 55% last year. This year? 49%

So not only are his first pitch strikes down significantly, it means hitters can be sitting on his fastball more of the time. Interesting.

Hurt, or just never that good to begin with?

It's really easy to suck and really hard to be good. Think of all the possible reasons for sucking, the myriad of personal, psychological and physical problems combined with bad, mostly random luck. In comparison, there are relatively few reasons why guys get significantly better (i.e., overachieve).

Suckiness is like a black hole with enough gravitational power to suck in anyone in its path. It's sucked in Ollie, who can't find the strike zone and get ahead of hitters. Why? Who the hell knows. I figured he'd have about 70 million reasons to focus better and have a contract year. But maybe he sees that more as pressure than opportunity. Or maybe his parents are sick or his wife/girlfriend dumped him or he's hurt or yada, yada, yada.

Bornybits has his fastball down about 1 MPH from last year and him throwing his slider 30% of the time instead of 35% like last year. If he has less confidence in his slider, maybe batters are just sitting on the fastball?

He also looks a little chubby this year.

I really sympathize with pitchers like Perez. I was a pitcher in HS and sometimes when you start to have trouble throwing strikes its an absolute nightmare. You just want to hide. Every wind-up you experience a spike in anxiety right as you are about to throw and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. I think something similar is happening to him this year. Read his body language and facial expressions. I think he's afraid that he won't be able to throw a strike. I remember his meltdown early last year. I was surprised that the recovered from that. He's a really sensitive guy.

If he's lost a few mph from his fastball, lost some movement on his curveball, has declining peripherals, and is a free agent, he sounds like the Giants' kind of player.

The Koufax thing isn't as silly as it seems in retrospect, either. Sandy was Perez's #1 Sim Score comp for age 23.

And at age 24 it was Pete Falcone. It was as silly and wildly optimistic then as it is now.

Sandy Koufax is the Roberto Clemente of pitchers.

I think the most obvious explanation is still our best bet - there's nothing "wrong" with him. This is just who he is.

Perez's performance has been so variable that I'm not sure that he really "is" anything. He's not good. He's not bad. He's just wildly inconsistent.

Sandy Koufax is the Roberto Clemente of pitchers.

As in years ago when Bill James said that comparisons made by age between Ruben Sierra to Clemente were unfair- to Clemente- since Roberto Clemente didn't become ROBERTO CLEMENTE until he was 27 or so.

Koufax did not become KOUFAX until he was 27.

Randy Johnson didn't become RANDY JOHNSON until he was 29.

BTW the mosts similar pitcher to Johnson at age 29 is Kerry Wood- obviously that's ludicrous because you know now their careers are not gonna turn out remotely similar- but Wood's may end up looking like Eck's- who would have thought that a few years ago?

Perez's performance has been so variable that I'm not sure that he really "is" anything. He's not good. He's not bad. He's just wildly inconsistent.

Perez is interesting this way, because unlike a lot of guys who have their ERAs bounce around, his peripherals have been bouncing around a ton too. Perez's periphs are inconsistent even by inconsistent pitcher standards.