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Thursday, May 22, 2008

Newsday: Joba’s future as a starter overshadows Yanks’ dominant win

That was the breaking news at Yankee Stadium Wednesday night, that Joba Chamberlain is moving into the rotation as soon as he can be stretched out to do so… After the game, manager Joe Girardi said the two-inning stint was the first step in preparing Chamberlain for the rotation.
...
During spring training, the Yankees said he would begin in the bullpen because an innings limit would prevent him from making a full season’s worth of starts. Yet ideally, Girardi and general manager Brian Cashman said, they envisioned Chamberlain in the rotation.
...
The process of preparing Chamberlain to join the rotation will take some time. Neither Girardi nor Cashman would share specifics about the transition process. He will initially be stretched out in the bullpen, and neither would answer whether or not he will ultimately have to make a minor league start(s). They also declined to detail an approximate date that Chamberlain will enter the rotation.

“This is the timetable that we had set,” Girardi said. “It’s going to take a while for him to get to 100 pitches.”

NTNgod Posted: May 22, 2008 at 12:17 AM | 31 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralNY Yankees

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   1. Son of Snigglet Posted: May 22, 2008 at 12:21 AM (#2790611)
Allow me to spearhead the stroke fest:

Here come the Yankees!!!!!1211311one!
   2. Miss Remember Posted: May 22, 2008 at 12:35 AM (#2790623)
Oh jesus now the next wave of Joba-to-the-rotation fluff articles...oh wait they never stopped in the first place.
   3. Repoz Posted: May 22, 2008 at 12:54 AM (#2790640)
Mike Francesspool just ate a smallish Diet Coke salesman, an unsuspecting cat named Muzzy, and a bevy of crow.
   4. Chip Posted: May 22, 2008 at 01:08 AM (#2790649)
Mike Francesspool just ate a smallish Diet Coke salesman, an unsuspecting cat named Muzzy, and a bevy of crow.


And Russo just burped him and screamed, "WHAT ARE THEY THINKING??????"
   5. alskor Posted: May 22, 2008 at 01:44 AM (#2790661)
What's that expression...?


Oh yeah: "Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic."
   6. AJM Misses Brodeur Posted: May 22, 2008 at 01:50 AM (#2790662)
Steve Phillips doesn't think this is a good move, who will pitch the 8th, he asks.
   7. Chip Posted: May 22, 2008 at 02:04 AM (#2790666)
Steve Phillips doesn't think this is a good move, who will pitch the 8th, he asks.


Hawkins and Farnsworth, of course!

Headhunter by committee.
   8. Rich Posted: May 22, 2008 at 02:10 AM (#2790671)
I'm glad they are sticking to the plan.
   9. Benji Posted: May 22, 2008 at 04:53 AM (#2790688)
1. To quote a Men At Work title: It's A Mistake

2. Hey, Cashman. Do this, then solve the 8th inning problem with a clean cut Notre Dame grad named Aaron Heilman!
   10. Rich Posted: May 22, 2008 at 07:17 AM (#2790702)
A mistake because a set up reliever is worth more than a starter? Seriously?
   11. GeoffB Posted: May 22, 2008 at 08:48 AM (#2790736)
1. To quote a Men At Work title: It's A Mistake


Maybe you want to quote another Men At Work title for the 8th inning ("Who Can It Be Now?"), but I don't believe this is a mistake.
   12. Cowboy Popup Posted: May 22, 2008 at 09:10 AM (#2790756)
Edwar has struck out 42 batters in 31 Major League relief innings. The Yankees do not need a set up man.

A-rod is going to win the MVP this year, the story line is set up perfectly.

Rasner, even if he's pitching over his head, has pitched very well, with great control. its cool to see someone from the farm who knows how to throw more than 5 innings.
   13. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: May 22, 2008 at 09:15 AM (#2790766)
I'm surprised nobody quoted an even more appropriate Men at Work lyric for this:

"I realize, I can see it in your eyes
Youre moving on to something more"

(Granted, I can see it in your eyes did not have a snappy video, but it was definitely one of the better songs Men at Work ever did).
   14. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: May 22, 2008 at 09:32 AM (#2790779)
Edwar has struck out 42 batters in 31 Major League relief innings. The Yankees do not need a set up man.
6 HR and 18 BB in those innings. Your best case is to argue that something has changed qualitatively between 2007 and 2008 - if 2007 is a reasonable measure of Ramirez' ability, as you must claim in order to add in his 2007 strikeouts, he should be nowhere near the 8th inning.

This is clearly the right move - I said before the season that the best choice for the Yankees depended on their internal replacement level, and with the extreme struggles of Hughes and Kennedy, even though the 8th inning projects to get weaker, the starting rotation is where Chamberlain is needed. It's not a move without downside, but that's mainly a fucntion of how freakin' great Joba is as a reliever - no one has a third reliever who could pitch that well, so a downgrade is inevitable - not a good argument for keeping him in the pen.

The argument against starting Joba would be that he's a great reliever and merely an ok starter, but that's unknown at this point, and it makes sense, absent other information, to trust the Yankees' evaluation.
   15. Shooty: Now rated AAA by Moody's and S&P! Posted: May 22, 2008 at 09:35 AM (#2790785)
The argument against starting Joba would be that he's a great reliever and merely an ok starter, but that's unknown at this point, and it makes sense, absent other information, to trust the Yankees' evaluation.

They have to try it. If he flops, he can always go back to the pen, assuming he doesn't flop due to injury. If he does get hurt, I guess we really might have another Generation K on our hands.
   16. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity Posted: May 22, 2008 at 09:36 AM (#2790787)
The process of preparing Chamberlain to join the rotation will take some time. Neither Girardi nor Cashman would share specifics about the transition process. He will initially be stretched out in the bullpen, and neither would answer whether or not he will ultimately have to make a minor league start(s). They also declined to detail an approximate date that Chamberlain will enter the rotation.

“It’s going to take a while for him to get to 100 pitches.”


June 10.

35 pitches yesterday, 50-55 on Monday, 65-70 next Saturday, 80-85 the Thursday after that. No need for any time in the minors, much less "a month in AAA" as has been repeatedly and ridiculously suggested around here.
   17. JC in DC Posted: May 22, 2008 at 09:37 AM (#2790788)
I agree w/you, Matt. This is the right move. The current worst case scenario (excluding injury) involves returning him to a spot (late relief) he's already successful in. They need to see if he can start. This process is going to require patience, however, and that's what worries me. Will the fans and the evil Steinbrenner twin be patient with some inevitable struggles as Joba learns to pace himself as a ML starter? I hope so, but remain uncertain.

I'm not worried about the 8th inning. You can win with spotty 8th inning pitching. Is Jeff Nelson still around?
   18. nycfan Posted: May 22, 2008 at 09:39 AM (#2790791)
Did anyone see A-Rod's homerun that was ruled a double? I'm not sure i've ever seen a ball hit that hard on a line. I didn't think there was any way it was getting out.
   19. Joe C isn't Posted: May 22, 2008 at 09:45 AM (#2790798)
6 HR and 18 BB in those innings. Your best case is to argue that something has changed qualitatively between 2007 and 2008 - if 2007 is a reasonable measure of Ramirez' ability, as you must claim in order to add in his 2007 strikeouts, he should be nowhere near the 8th inning.

As a Red Sox fan, I look forward to seeing Ramirez' arrow stright fastball in the 8th inning. But, perhaps he has gotten better; I haven't seen him pitch this year nor heard a scouting report.
   20. Cowboy Popup Posted: May 22, 2008 at 09:59 AM (#2790808)
6 HR and 18 BB in those innings. Your best case is to argue that something has changed qualitatively between 2007 and 2008 - if 2007 is a reasonable measure of Ramirez' ability, as you must claim in order to add in his 2007 strikeouts, he should be nowhere near the 8th inning.

It's not a hard argument to make. When he was called up, Torre had no interest in pitching him. He threw him a couple of times and benched him for two weeks and then had him pitch in a game where he got shelled. He had his ups and downs, like most rookies do, and when he was obviously fatigued at the end of the season (77 IP that season between the minors and majors after being in A ball and an Independent league the year before), Torre just kept running him out there as if to say "F--- You" to the front office for daring to tell him who to pitch.

I'd suggest you watch him this year if you think I'm full of it. His command with the fastball is much sharper and his change is still devastating. And if I'm wrong and he fails, there's Ross Ohlendorf, and Jose Veras and David Robertson and JB Cox and Mark Melancon and Scott Patterson and Scott Strickland and David McCutchen. They all throw hard and strike batters out and have had success in the upper levels of the minors. Some of them will work out. To keep Joba in the pen with no starting depth and a wealth of options in the bullpen would be awful silly.
   21. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: May 22, 2008 at 10:03 AM (#2790817)
I don't think you're full of it. I haven't gotten a chance to watch Edwar yet.

I just think that adding up his 2007 and 2008 strikeout numbers actually stands as evidence against Edwar's quality, because it presumes the utility of his 2007 numbers, which were incredibly bad. If you're arguing for a qualitative change - which is a reasonable thing to claim, and which I don't have the knowledge to dispute - you're making a completely different argument.
   22. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: May 22, 2008 at 10:07 AM (#2790822)
Also, there's no way any of those kids will pitch as well as Chamberlain. So the Yankees are taking a downgrade. The question is the extent of it.

One problem with listing names like that is that one can't simply bring them all up and only pitch the best ones in high-lev situations. You have to sort through them at the major league level, and sometimes even the good ones will pitch poorly - just a matter of sample size - and you'll always end up giving some key innings to the bad ones. It takes time, and costs runs, to sort out a pile of potential bullpen arms that large.
   23. Cowboy Popup Posted: May 22, 2008 at 10:10 AM (#2790828)
I just think that adding up his 2007 and 2008 strikeout numbers actually stands as evidence against Edwar's quality, because it presumes the utility of his 2007 numbers, which were incredibly bad.

His performance record over the past two years, including his minor league numbers, suggests a dominant reliever. 33 Ks in 16 2/3 IP in AA, 82 Ks in 49 IP in AAA, 42 Ks in 31 IP in the AL. The only time he had an ERA over 1 during that time was in his first 21 innings in the Majors under an erratic usage pattern. I left out his minor league numbers, that's my mistake. But striking out batters is among the most important things a pitcher can do and even when he couldn't spot his fastball or throw strikes, which was and is not a problem he has a history of having, he struck out batters. I think that speaks well to his potential as a big time reliever.

You are right, my post, even as a throw away was pretty lacking in content and support for my point. Sometimes I alternate between RLYW and here and forget where I'm posting.
   24. Dingbat Charlie Posted: May 22, 2008 at 10:11 AM (#2790829)
People just love to play with words.
   25. Cowboy Popup Posted: May 22, 2008 at 10:15 AM (#2790833)
Also, there's no way any of those kids will pitch as well as Chamberlain. So the Yankees are taking a downgrade. The question is the extent of it.

A bit of an exageration isn't it? Joba has a 152 ERA+ and already has 2 losses. None of them will strike out the batters Joba will and in terms of going forward he's obviously the best bet, but his performance so far this year has been good, not other-wordly. I don't see his production as irreplaceable and I would guess that any of those guys have the ability to put up a 3 ERA in 40 or 50 IP, even if that isn't their real talent level.
   26. Sometimes it Rains (sj) Posted: May 22, 2008 at 10:24 AM (#2790847)
Ross Ohlendorf is not great. He is alright. Whats the story on Sanchez's rehab? Is he done?
   27. aleskel Posted: May 22, 2008 at 10:26 AM (#2790848)
yesterday was an interesting appearance for Joba - his fastball was 93-94 instead of 96-97, so I guess that's his starting fastball. If he can throw 94 consistently and hump it up in tight situations, he could really be something.
   28. jmurph Posted: May 22, 2008 at 10:28 AM (#2790856)
It's funny how this works as a fan of someone other than the Yankees- while I know a good starter is more valuable than a good reliever, what I'm actually thinking is: great, the Sox will only have to face him every once in a while, instead of 2 times in a 3 game series, or 5 times in a 7 game series, etc.
   29. rconn23 Posted: May 22, 2008 at 11:53 AM (#2791005)
This is the right move.

However, I'm not confident in Ramirez ability to take over the role. Farnsworth will surely blow the opportunity, seeing that he is atrocious.

The answers ultimately will come from the trio of Melancon, David Robertson and J.B Cox. Melancon it seems is being groomed for and has the best makeup to be the heir to Rivera. Given that any of the three aren't traded, I think there's a shot that the three of them are the eventual 7-8-9 guys in New York.

The problem is that the Yankees really need either Hughes or Kennedy to pan out, or get Sabathia for '09. Because their starting rotation next year would be Joba, Wang and pray for Raing. Mussina won't be brought back and it's doubtful that Pettite will be back as well. I think Rasner could stay as a possible fifth starter or be the long man. Their best shot at future stars in the rotation are at Low A ball (Betances, Heredia, and McCallister)- all incredibly young and promising but in need of much polish, especially Betances. I think it's incumbent the Yanks fork over the dough to get C.C.
   30. Ray DiPerna Posted: May 22, 2008 at 06:36 PM (#2791156)
As a Red Sox fan, I look forward to seeing Ramirez' arrow stright fastball in the 8th inning. But, perhaps he has gotten better; I haven't seen him pitch this year nor heard a scouting report.


I guess the 8th inning has now become the new 9th inning.

You know, there's nothing magical about the "8th inning." It's unfortunate that teams feel the need to set up their pens this way, because if they only dispensed with the simple-minded "closer" and "setup man" roles and just used relievers based on quality/effectiveness/situation/rest/etc., they'd be a lot better off.
   31. Ray DiPerna Posted: May 22, 2008 at 06:44 PM (#2791163)
A bit of an exageration isn't it? Joba has a 152 ERA+ and already has 2 losses. None of them will strike out the batters Joba will and in terms of going forward he's obviously the best bet, but his performance so far this year has been good, not other-wordly.


This is a key point; I was about to make it myself.

Lost in all the euphoria over "Joba!" is this: he hasn't been as good this year. That's not surprising; nobody with a clue thought that his true talent level was a 0.38 ERA. (Well, Mike Francesa did. But I said nobody with a clue.) And small sample sizes apply. But if he's really a 150 ERA+ reliever instead of a 1400 ERA+ one -- well, that's still a damned good reliever, but now the decision to start him is a lot easier.

I wouldn't really complain about a team keeping a 150 ERA+ reliever in the bullpen. But generally I think you need to try him as a starter first -- especially since Chamberlain started in the minors -- and use a relief role as the fallback option.
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