Viewing hours will be at 3:30 and 7:30

No, no, no, you got it all wrong. A vat of Moises' urine will be scattered across Shea's left field warning track.

So they should sign an unemployed veteran outfield bat. Know anybody who might be available?

AROM, I don't think Kenny Lofton is going to save the Mets.

Juan Gone and Slammin' Sammy both love New York.

Bernie Williams will bring his guitar and play the national anthem.

Bernie Williams will bring his guitar and play the national anthem.

I thought he was buried under New Yankee Stadium?

Mets fans should constantly chant "Barry Bonds" wherever they are until the team signs him. And if it doesn't, they should tear down the stadium.

So he played in four rehab games before re-injuring himself?

So he played in four rehab games before re-injuring himself?

They mistakenly sent him to dehab instead of rehab.

lol Crispix...

I kept telling people Alou was dead last year when we didn't hear from him for 2 months at a time. But he was one of the best hitters on the team when he played. A Bonds/Alou injury platoon would work very well, though it would make the lineup very LH heavy (which may not be a problem as long as Church keeps hitting LHP and Castro comes back).

Dammitt, honey! I told you not to load all of the valuables into that old Styrofoam cooler and then leave it out in the field!

They are not signing Barry Bonds.

But they should.

Probably. But they won't.

Yeah, but they should.

Alou also was checked by the Center for Disease Control for hives, shingles, ague, bubonic plague, black death, anorexia, goiter, leprosy, narcolepsy, bruised ego, consumpion, plantar warts, space debris contusions and demonic possession. Results will be known later in the week.

I had been pamphleting for an Alou-Barry-Endy LF troika earlier in the year. fmmmph.

You know, this is going to sound bad, and I don't really mean it (at least I won't 30 seconds after I'm done typing it), but if -- if -- I thought it would actually get through the heads of the otherwise smart people running the Mets who, on this one issue, are just incredibly thick and fantastically wrong, and that it would actually change the direction of this franchise for the next half-dozen seasons, I would actually wish (almost) for this season to be lost to an avalanche of entirely predictable age-related injuries and decline bringing down players like Alou, Delgado, Castillo, Wagner, El Duque, and 3/4 of the bench. Not Pedro; I just couldn't hope for bad things for Pedro no matter what.

Now, I don't really want this to happen -- it won't change their direction anyway, and even if it did, who the hell wants a lost season in the bargain??? But for God's sake. The front office has hitched this team's fortunes to an old roster latched onto a core of great young & prime players. They have done this even though they have nothing -- nothing -- in the farm system to back up these old farts when (not if -- when) they go down for various stretches of the season. It was (and will remain) a riverboat gamble, that you perhaps can admire in the abstract for its pure guts, but in the execution of it, when it's your rent money the fool is gambling with . . . geez, it's just so foolish.

And pretty much every one of the predictable bad things that you'd expect might happen . . . have. Alou hasn't played, and heaven knows if he will. Then ALL the chickens started coming home to roost. El Duque's foot. Pedro. Castillo and Delgado looking really, really old most of the time at the plate.

I'm a broken record, I know. This is reprise # 573 of this particular rant: if this organization doesn't start getting younger -- committing to it, and meaning it, and getting rid of Randolph if he is the obstacle -- it will die, and I don't give a damn how good David Wright turns out to be over the next 15 years. The path Omar is on is a path to oblivion.

Wow. Sam, you're usually one of the more calm and rational of the Mets Primates. I think you may be overreacting a bit to this rough start.

I think you may be overreacting a bit to this rough start.

Actually, I don't think it is a rough start. I think they're just fine, two games over .500, tied with the Phillies and ahead of the Braves. That has nothing to do with it.

But when I see the very things happen to the team in the first month that were utterly predictable because they have constructed a roster that is brittle with age, an issue I have been screaming about with ever-growing frustration for two years now, you can't expect me not to vent. With every signing that makes the team older, with every draft pick they lose to a FA signing or blow on another college reliever, with every young player they trade away for nothing or lose in the Rule 5 draft, they lock themselves into this spiral. They now have the oldest roster in the league, and this is in spite of the still-young left side of the infield.

This isn't about the record this year; the record is just fine and has them on pace for close to 90 wins. This is about the direction of a franchise that has come to believe that you cannot win in New York with young players (Randolph and Minaya have both been quoted to that effect), and is acting on that belief. And now, they are seeing the downside of that philosophy in a roster that is decimated by injuries to ancient warriors. Someone needs to call them on it, and draw the obvious links between their approach and what is happening to the franchise. The boat won't sink in 2008, but it will soon enough with this philosophy. It's inevitable.

i think it's useful to compare the Mets to the Red Sox. the Sox have done an excellent job maintaining the farm system and bringing up ready to contribute players (pedroia, ellsbury, lowrie, buccholz) while surrounding them with solid free agent talent. the Mets have that solid free agent talent, and several excellent home grown players, but they lack the farm system that allows the Sox to lose a Mike Lowell and replace him with a Jed Lowrie.

the Sox have done an excellent job maintaining the farm system and bringing up ready to contribute players (pedroia, ellsbury, lowrie, buccholz) while surrounding them with solid free agent talent.

And for the most part, the Red Sox have not traded away the fruits of their farm system. The one famous exception to that in the past several years, the Hanley Ramirez trade, is one I believe they will end up "losing" on in terms of pure talent returned (indeed, I'm pretty sure they already have -- that's how good Hanley is), but we all know what they gained and whether they'd do it again. But the point is: for the most part, they simply keep their young 'uns. And they give them the chance to play, and they create an environment in which they can thrive and succeed, even though there is no more high-pressure atmosphere than the AL East, Boston-Yankee rivalry.

Yet, the Mets are convinced they can't integrate young players into their line-up. And so they trade them away, or allow their announcers to trash them or their manager to foster the belief that there is no place for anyone but a veteran who knows how to win around Shea.

Tell me. Who was the last home-grown Met to gain a starting job? And how confident are you that you can name the next one, and when will it be?

Sam, you're usually one of the more calm and rational of the Mets Primates

In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.

Tell me. Who was the last home-grown Met to gain a starting job? And how confident are you that you can name the next one, and when will it be?

Angel Pagan, 2008.

But the point is: for the most part, they simply keep their young 'uns.

The Red Sox did trade away Murphy and Gabbard for Gagné. They both appear to be at least serviceable starting caliber players at the major league level so far with Texas.

Sarcastic remark aside, Sam is right- though the one trade that robbed the Mets of most of their young chips, the Santana deal, has to be made every day and twice on Sundays. But keeping young players around is what allows a team to make that no-brainer of a deal while also avoiding so much of the team becoming vulnerable to injury.

As it has turned out, they have had pretty decent plan Bs for Alou and Pedro so far. Not Delgado, though hopefully he turned the corner today. If not, Sam should be happy-Mike Carp is no veteran, and he's all they've got.

Angel Pagan, 2008.

Wise guy. ;-)

By that logic, Tom Seaver would have been part of the youth movement in 1983 when he was reacquired. He was, after all, a product of the Mets' farm system.

If not, Sam should be happy-Mike Carp is no veteran, and he's all they've got.

Case in point: I would bet a hefty sum that if Delgado got hurt, or just falls off a cliff completely and simply HAD to be replaced, they would NOT turn to Mike Carp. They would trade away a moderate, non-prospect chip for some spare part hanging around some non-contender (Ty Wigginton -- wouldn't that be priceless???) who has Proven Veteran™ credentials.

Angel Pagan Jelly Dance! Angel Pagan Jelly Dance! Angel Pagan Jelly Dance!
Angel Pagan Jelly, Angel Pagan Jelly, Angel Pagan Jelly with a baseball bat!

The challenge I would lay to you, Sam, is to tell me where Omar has gone wrong in specific moves. I've argued time and time again that the backbone of any organization is its farm, so philosophically I agree with you. But choices aren't made in the ideal and the abstract, they're made on what options are available at the time and what pressures are present.

It's interesting that your critique is about what happened in the first month, yet there isn't anything I can see where a youth-oriented winter would have made it any different. Gomez is struggling. None of the 3 young pitchers we gave up are ready for the majors. Are you arguing that Santana wasn't the better short term choice? Church is outperforming Milledge, and Schneider has been more useful than LoDuca.

Maybe you're critiquing Alou and El Duque, but I don't think that Minaya was ignorant of the injury risk for both those players. I think he wanted those two aboard because they could serve valuable roles at some point during the season (and hopefully, postseason), not because he expects them to be reliable everyday options. And Omar has done an admirable job, IMHO, of finding substitutes for the expected injuries.

Finally, you draw a compare-and-contrast with the BoSox organization. That's hard for me to see. Ellsbury and Bucholz developed rapidly. The Mets have not been as strong in the development pipeline recently, and I don't think anyone here has argued that. If you're arguing that the Mets have been drafting poorly, that's another discussion. But the farm first has to produce a fast-riser in order to be upset about there not being the presence of one in the majors.

I guess the main counterpoint I pose is to ask which young player has Omar foolishly handed away for these beloved veterans that will doom the Mets? I get annoyed with Willie and Omar too, but they've given Pelfrey a chance, probably more than the fanbase would have themselves. And I do think that Fernando, Tejada, and Duda will get a shot when they are ready. The veterans are here because they give the Mets the best chance now. Tomorrow will depend on the farm.

I'm all for signing veterans like Alou and Duque, its just the trades that drive me insane. A big market team like the Mets should, for the most part, never trade. Things can only go wrong. Develop internally via the system, sign guys other teams can't afford, and sit back and watch. No need to take on the additional risk of wheeling and dealing, especially when you constantly trade young for old.

Mike Jacobs and Carlos Deglado have almost identical lines since the trade. Yusmeiro Petit is serviceable, and may be better. Gaby Hernandez is being mentioned among Marlins power prospects. Heath Bell. Royce Ring. Ruben Gotay got away for nothing. Johnny Estrada was basically free and probably better than Casanova. Matt Lindstrom. Flores, obviously.

Big trades are a great use of farm system resources(like Santana) - its when you lose useful players for nothing and end up either overpaying or having a black hole at a certain position that kills you.

This has been done before, but if the Mets had stood pat over the last few years and almost nothing, they would be better off than they are today. A few signings and the Santana deal is all you need.

Santana, Pedro, Kazmir, Bannister, Duque (as FA), Pelfrey...
Wagner, Heilman, Bell, Feliciano, Smith, Owens, Lindstrom...
Flores/FA, Jacobs, Keppinger, Reyes, Wright...
Alou/Pagan, Beltran, Milledge...

And this roster is substantially cheaper. We'd have money for a big bopper somewhere, since we wouldn't be paying for Schoeneweis, Delgado, or Castillo. It also doesn't include the guys that we lucked out on via trade, like Maine, Ollie Perez, or Sanchez, or guys that we dealt away for Santana. I'm sure I'm forgetting a lot more as well.

The Mets are drafting and developing good talent... it doesn't all have to be front line talent to be useful.

It's still early but at what point do we begin to doubt that Milledge will become an above average defensive player? Awknowledging the small sample issues, Lastings does rank next-to-last in ZR in the majors (Carlos Gomez ranks 1st) as a centerfielder. That's bad. He has yet to show the ability to get good jumps at the big league level.

Does Milledge have the bat to be a very good player if he is a -5 or -10 corner outfielder?

Church's defense has been outstanding so far this season. With Beltran and Church in center and respectively, the Mets have two guys who can really get after it in the outfield. With a flyball staff, that's really important.

Church is not a star but I think his defense makes him a pretty good player if he can be a 110-115 OPS+ player. And it's not like he is ancient either.

I think the Mets overpaid for Church but I like what he adds to this team.

Johnny Estrada is a dreasful defensive catcher, refuses to take a walk, and is slower than a dead man.

He is not a player you want on a contending team.

Tell me. Who was the last home-grown Met to gain a starting job?

I don't know why this is important, but "Mike Pelfrey". On this team we have David Wright, Jose Reyes, Pelfrey, Heilman.

I mean, we traded old guys *for* Oliver Perez and John Maine. We did trade young guys, but Santana is still pretty young.

The Mets batter age is 30.1, behind 9 other teams, including: NYY, BOS, DET, PHI - all legitimate playoff teams. The Padres are at 30.0, so that's a wash.

So, 6 of the "expected" playoff teams are the age of the Mets. And the Mets team is the same as 2007, so they were a year younger last year - well, they traded Schneider for Lo Duca, so that's a bit younger.

The Mets pitching age is 29.5 - tied for 10th, behind: NYY, DET, ATL, PHI, LAD, SDP, MIL, and tied with CLE and about the same as CHC (29.4).

I just don't see this ominous "old" cloud.

The challenge I would lay to you, Sam, is to tell me where Omar has gone wrong in specific moves.

1) Jesus Flores
2) The draft -- this isn't only Omar's fault; his hands have been tied by the organization's decision (made at the ownership level) not to go over slot for draft picks. But going for college reliever after college reliever has been (to say the least) odd. Granted, it has yielded some short-term value because of Joe Smith, but those picks could have been invested in much better long-term value, especially since Omar had to know, his rhetoric notwithstanding, that he was going to be using the prospects currently in the system as bargaining chips.

But look -- the problem is not in the moves that Omar has made to date, at least not as they have affected the roster the Mets have today for 2008. The problem is that the win-now attitude, and the disdain for development of young players and actually using them, will kill them for the future. Call me a doomsayer if you like, but anyone looking at the current roster, and the talent on hand in the farm system, should be able to see the future. It isn't pretty.

Yes, they have given Mike Pelfrey lots of opportunities. Other than him, there's been no home-grown player win a job since David Wright four years ago! Maybe Joe Smith will eventually win a significant place, but do you really think so? I don't. And Pelfrey's struggles don't exactly say much for the organization's developmental strength of young players, either.

Meanwhile, Omar and Willie both make statements about how you can't win with young players in New York, they run Milledge out of town, and they trade every prospect (mostly before they ever get to New York, but sometimes after a Humber-like cup of coffee). Do you really think any significant prospect in the system now expects to ever be a New York Met? He expects to be trade bait.

Chris, it's not 2008 I'm concerned about. It's the direction. If I thought this was going to be as old as they are going to get, and a sharp move in the direction of getting younger was on the way (because the talent to do so was on the way), I'd have no worries. But the talent isn't there, so the only way to replenish is to get older still with FA signings. Which will simply drain them of draft picks, thus blocking the way to replenishing the system . . . your classic vicious cycle.

Meanwhile, Omar and Willie both make statements about how you can't win with young players in New York

What makes this odd is:
1: Randolph was made a starting 2B as a 21 year old- and the Yankees made the WS that year, and the next 2.
2: Randolph was around when the Yankees reversed direction in the mid 90s and started playing rookies like Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada, Andy Petitte, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera.

What's exasperating about Willie and the comments he makes- is they seem to run directly counter to his own personal baseball experience- he regurgitates and apparently believes a lot of old time baseball "wisdom", and appears to be incapable of modifying those beliefs in the face of evidence- IOW he doesn't learn from experience

"1: Randolph was made a starting 2B as a 21 year old- and the Yankees made the WS that year, and the next 2."

He was made a starting 2B only after his original team, the defending division champion Pirates, sent him away in a prospect-for-veteran deal. As such, he may have been drawing his lesson from the wrong side of that transaction.

He was made a starting 2B only after his original team, the defending division champion Pirates, sent him away in a prospect-for-veteran deal. As such, he may have been drawing his lesson from the wrong side of that transaction.

No, he was a throw-in on a veteran for veteran deal
"the wrong side" indeed, the Pirates traded 2 SPs and a 20 year old 2B who had just hit .331 in the minors (albeit low minors) for an innings eater who struggled to crack a 100 ERA+
Both pitchers the pirates traded away, Brett and Ellis had outpitched the pitcher they acquired (Medich) prior to the trade and arguably continued to do so after the trade (not saying much), and Randolph handily outplayed them all.

The Pirates came up with Dave Cash in 1969, he was regarded as a minor star, then the Pirates came up with Rennie Stennett in 1971- having Stennett made Cash expendable, so they actually traded the young Vet* to give a FT job to Stennett (probably a mistake BTW, even though Cash cliff-dived at 30) Stennett was only 25 in 1976 and regarded as a minor star- unlike with CAsh they weren't willing to trade the young established vet to make room for the even younger player. (Stinnett later simply fell off a cliff at age 27 and never recovered)

*Cash was traded straight up for a 24 year old pitcher who'd just gone 13-9 3.44- that young pitcher would be reasonable effective for a few years after that (if injury prone) and later would be traded along with Randolph to the Yankees. (for some reason not entirely apparent from their BBREF pages, in 1975/76 the Pirates deemed Doc Medich to be worth Ken Brett (who when healthy had outpitched Medich up to that point in time), Doc Ellis (ditto) and Randolph (who had hit 339/.411/.479 his last year in the minors- A ball).

Randolph, an after thought among Pittsburg 2Bs, a throw in on an exchange of SPs- arguably turned in the best career of all the guys involved in these deals.

Yes, they have given Mike Pelfrey lots of opportunities. Other than him, there's been no home-grown player win a job since David Wright four years ago! Maybe Joe Smith will eventually win a significant place, but do you really think so? I don't. And Pelfrey's struggles don't exactly say much for the organization's developmental strength of young players, either.


I think Reyes, Wright, and Heilman (2008 struggles notwithstanding) say quite a bit for the organization's developmental strength. Feliciano was a Dodger prospect but the Mets are the only team he's been in the majors with, and he's a pretty solid middle reliever.

Mike Jacobs and Carlos Deglado have almost identical lines since the trade. Yusmeiro Petit is serviceable, and may be better. Gaby Hernandez is being mentioned among Marlins power prospects. Heath Bell. Royce Ring. Ruben Gotay got away for nothing. Johnny Estrada was basically free and probably better than Casanova. Matt Lindstrom. Flores, obviously.

Jacobs was much worse than Delgado in 2006, a little worse than Delgado in 2007, and as terrible as Delgado's been in 2008, Jacobs has a lower OBP. There's no way the 2006 Mets are a 97 win team with Mike Jacobs. I hated the LoDuca trade but he was great as a Met in 2006.

Petit lasted practically no time with the Marlins before being traded to Arizona, where he's been basically an average reliever. Hernandez is getting pounded in AAA so far with a 7.71 ERA and a 1.7ish WHIP. Bell came completely out of nowhere after 2 pretty poor seasons with the Mets. Ring had 20 innings last year where he looked very good, but he's a 27-year old with less than 50 ML innings, and probably as close to a non-prospect as you can think of. Gotay's batting .188 for Atlanta; do you really miss him?

These aren't the types of players to get too worked up about. This was an organization that traded Jason Bay and Scott Kazmir for pennies on the dollar.

Flores, that's probably Minaya's worst move as Met GM.

Flores, that's probably Minaya's worst move as Met GM.

I agree 100%.

We all know Omar caters to Willie’s preferences. What direction would this team be taking if he is not the manager?

Two obvious answers: Milledge will still be here, Castillo probably wouldn’t be. Alou and Pedro and El Duque seem to be Omar moves and will still be with the team.

Peterson seems to have a lot of input on the pitching side, which is why there are a lot more openings for untested and/or broken pitchers than position players.

I think Reyes, Wright, and Heilman (2008 struggles notwithstanding) say quite a bit for the organization's developmental strength.

Those guys came through the system and were developed five years ago, Crosbybird. They've all been on the major league roster, well-established, for four. When are we going to see the next product of the farm system be trusted to be a substantial piece of the Mets' line-up, and then succeed? Pelfrey has been trusted, but hasn't achieved the success. The system is either not developing blue chip players any more, or it is trading away anything that resembles a blue chip player before he gets within 100 miles of being a significant contributor to the New York Mets.

The organizational philosophy is clear. The failures of drafting and development are clear. The warning clouds are on the horizon in the form of old players dominating the roster, and the lack of adequate talent in the pipeline to replace the old players (and the obvious fact the young players wouldn't be trusted w/ jobs even if the talent WAS there).

The present may be fine, but the future will not take care of itself . . . and the organization's philosophy does not make me confident that it will be well-tended. At all.

I said in 2006 Jacobs would have been benched before he caught fire. If you remember that season, he started off April in a terrible slump, .192/.310/.370, and with the New York media and Randolph, they would have pulled the plug on him and probably tried to scare up a seasoned vet to take his place (we were all ready to release Delgado before yesterday). Jacobs went on to post an .808 OPS in May, 1.036 in June and a .970 in July before slumping to .634 in August and .633 in September. There's no way to know how he would've performed as a Met, but it is safe to say that had he started as slow as he did in Florida, he would've at least been relegated to the bench and perhaps to AAA. I like Jacobs, but dealing him for Delgado was defensible.

Flores- I agree, inexcusable, literally.

Yeah, but Sam - your thesis is getting blurry. Are you arguing that Omar isn't doing a good job finding and developing talent - or that he is philosophically preferential towards acquiring talent from abroad. Those are two completely distinct issues.

Flores was a mistake. It was a horrible mistake. Hell, I made a huge stink about it at the time (and had several posters assure me that he would be returned in midseason). But that's not an example of either the farm doing poorly or Omar's accused penchant for veterans. Omar screwed up thinking that no one would pick Flores and live with his inexperience for an entire season. He should be flayed for it, but it's not a sign that he won't give young players a chance.

Otherwise, there really hasn't been another surefire youngster since Wright. Milledge has been discussed to death. Humber could have been. Pelfrey is the next of the blue-chippers and Omar is giving him the chance.

I wanted the Mets to give Jacobs and Petit a chance, but it looks like Omar was right on that front as well.

Bell came completely out of nowhere after 2 pretty poor seasons with the Mets.

You don't believe in minor league numbers, then? And even in his 3 seasons with the Mets in MLB, Bell had pretty decent peripherals: 105Ks, 30 BBs, in 108 IP. In the 2 poor seasons, 78 Ks, 24 BBs, in 83.7 IP.

. Are you arguing that Omar isn't doing a good job finding and developing talent - or that he is philosophically preferential towards acquiring talent from abroad. Those are two completely distinct issues.

What do you mean by "abroad," Rasky? Do you mean internationally (as distinct from the draft)? Or do you mean from outside the Mets' organization -- via trades and free agency (as distinct from home-grown)?

Because I don't think I've said anything about the distinction between domestic/draft and international signings (I'm indifferent as to that), so I don't think you can mean that -- although that's the most natural reading of "abroad." The problem is not that the Mets have focused on international signings. The problem is that they are doing a bad job of developing talent, and they are not drafting well (slotting, anyone???), and they are trading away the young talent they do develop. It's the combination and consistency of all those things. When you keep doing them all, even if each single move can be defended (hell, even if each single move is RIGHT taken in isolation), the sum total is to leave yourself with a barren farm system.

And if your defense is that they haven't committed to a young player since Wright because they haven't had that a good enough player to commit to . . . well, doesn't that kind of make the point about the failure of their development system and/or the fact that they've been committed to a model of trading away the kids they do develop? And are you comfortable with the idea that that approach can continue, given the roster they have and the current state of the farm system?

I was using abroad in a general sense, meaning "not from within."

Yeah, I agree that the Mets haven't done a great job of finding, acquiring, and developing young talent. But that's my impression. I think that a systematic study would be more convincing one way or the other. This draft and how Fernando develops will be a major mark on Omar's resume one way or the other.

You don't believe in minor league numbers, then? And even in his 3 seasons with the Mets in MLB, Bell had pretty decent peripherals: 105Ks, 30 BBs, in 108 IP. In the 2 poor seasons, 78 Ks, 24 BBs, in 83.7 IP.


I don't put a ton of stock in how well a pitcher does when he's in AAA for the third season at age 26. That's not really a prospect any more.

I liked Bell's K/BB ratio too, but he gave up a lot of hits. A 1.479 WHIP in 2005. A 1.676 WHIP in 2006. And in 2006, 6 HR in his 37 innings.

It's hard to seriously fault the Mets for cutting bait on Bell. A sub 1.000 WHIP and the drop in HR rate to below 1 per 30 innings? That absolutely came out of nowhere.

It's hard to seriously fault the Mets for cutting bait on Bell. A sub 1.000 WHIP and the drop in HR rate to below 1 per 30 innings? That absolutely came out of nowhere.

Part of this is observational bias
I personally never saw any of the Mets games where Bell got shelled.

Whenever my TV was on and Bell was pitching he did well, I never understood why so many fellow Met fans hated on him- but if I saw him 3 time and two of those times he gave up 5 hits in less than an inning, I might have hated him too.

His minor league track record is extremely good (544/128 k/bb in 469 ip), but he had a few glitches too, upon promotion to AA he got lit up with a 6.05 ERA (looking at his k/bb and his h/9- it looks like batters were hitting nearly .400 on contact), upon his promotion to AAA he gave up an ERA of 4.68 despite a terrific 54/8 K/bb in 50ip.

20/20 hindsight- Bell has had trouble making necessary adjustments when promoted, first when he hit AA, then AAA then MLB- that trouble has come in the form of getting hit really hard (Maine seems to have had the same pattern- just not as clearly delineated as Bell)- but he's always made the necessary adjustments- jerking such a player up and down repeated over 2+ seasons is probably the worst thing to do.

BTF ate my other post.

Those guys came through the system and were developed five years ago, Crosbybird. They've all been on the major league roster, well-established, for four. When are we going to see the next product of the farm system be trusted to be a substantial piece of the Mets' line-up, and then succeed? Pelfrey has been trusted, but hasn't achieved the success. The system is either not developing blue chip players any more, or it is trading away anything that resembles a blue chip player before he gets within 100 miles of being a significant contributor to the New York Mets.


First of all, I think a farm system that produces Kazmir, Reyes, Wright, Heilman, and Pelfrey in a decade is pretty solid. I mean, you are talking about 3 all-stars, a great reliever, and a ML-quality starter. That's not terrible in terms of results.

There are three players that stand out in my mind as relatively young players Minaya traded away that represent poor decisions. Milledge is one of them, and he's been beaten to death here on that. Flores is similarly an issue nobody defends Minaya on; simply inexcusable. The third one is Jeff Keppinger.

Keppinger is probably a reach. I don't think he really distinguished himself so much that it was a clear blunder at the time. The Mets traded Milledge for a short-term upgrade, and that's not completely indefensible when you're as close as they've been in 2006 and 2007, with guys like Delgado, Pedro, Alou, etc. in walk years. And Flores, yeah, that stings, but Joe Mauer he isn't.

20/20 hindsight- Bell has had trouble making necessary adjustments when promoted, first when he hit AA, then AAA then MLB- that trouble has come in the form of getting hit really hard (Maine seems to have had the same pattern- just not as clearly delineated as Bell)- but he's always made the necessary adjustments- jerking such a player up and down repeated over 2+ seasons is probably the worst thing to do.


I certainly agree with that. Although I think it's very, very unlikely that Bell is really as good as 2007.

Would it really have been shocking if Bell put up a 4.75 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 2007? The Mets had Sanchez, they had Heilman, they had Wagner, they had Feliciano, they had Joe Smith, not to mention guys like Urdenata and Burgos. They got Ben Johnson, who looked like a decent bench bat with some potential; then he broke his ankle.

I liked Bell's K/BB ratio too, but he gave up a lot of hits. A 1.479 WHIP in 2005. A 1.676 WHIP in 2006. And in 2006, 6 HR in his 37 innings.

It's hard to seriously fault the Mets for cutting bait on Bell. A sub 1.000 WHIP and the drop in HR rate to below 1 per 30 innings? That absolutely came out of nowhere.

Yes, he was getting hit hard. But those are some really small samples. For example here are his HR / FB rates from 2004-2007: 31.2%, 8%, 23.1%, 7%. He's yet to give up a HR in 2008. So with the Mets, he had 2 years where in 61.3 innings he was giving up home runs at a ridiculous rate, but also 46.7 innings where he was giving up HRs at a "normal" rate.

You'd put more weight on his skill at HR / FB rates, and at hits on balls in play in some very small samples, over his K / BB rates and over his minor league numbers?

It's hard to seriously fault the Mets for cutting bait on Bell. A sub 1.000 WHIP and the drop in HR rate to below 1 per 30 innings? That absolutely came out of nowhere.

The problem with Bell was that, since he did not see immediate success, he was being deployed in a mop up role. Anyone who was watching saw that Bell was being left in there to give up five runs in blowouts. That's how he carried decent peripherals with awful ERA's.

He had killer minor league numbers, but he's a pudgy guy with a short arm motion - he wasn't going to get any love until he earned it. He didn't as a Met, because he never had a real shot to earn a role as a one inning guy protecting leads. He got that in SD.

These aren't the types of players to get too worked up about. This was an organization that traded Jason Bay and Scott Kazmir for pennies on the dollar.

Obviously the Kazmir and Bay deals will kill you - but if you make the Jacobs trade over and over and over again... well... it adds up. If the Mets had stood pat, they'd be awash with cheap talent, and have money to spend on guys like Alou or Delgado when they are available for only cash.

First of all, I think a farm system that produces Kazmir, Reyes, Wright, Heilman, and Pelfrey in a decade is pretty solid. I mean, you are talking about 3 all-stars, a great reliever, and a ML-quality starter. That's not terrible in terms of results.

All of whom, except Pelfrey, were first acquired prior to Omar's arrival, and one of the first things he did was replace the farm and scouting directors with his FRIENDS.

The "system" that produced Kazmir, Reyes, Wright and Heilman no longer exists.

What we have NOW is the "system that produced Pelfrey, Humber and Smith (and FMart and Guerra- unsure when Gomez came in).

The problem with Bell was that, since he did not see immediate success, he was being deployed in a mop up role. Anyone who was watching saw that Bell was being left in there to give up five runs in blowouts. That's how he carried decent peripherals with awful ERA's.


Why should Bell pitch less effectively in a blowout? If anything, he's got the least pressure.

You'd put more weight on his skill at HR / FB rates, and at hits on balls in play in some very small samples, over his K / BB rates and over his minor league numbers?


No. I'd put some serious weight on how in his 6th year of professional baseball, at age 25, he still wasn't able to dominate AAA. At age 26, he was able to be a decent, but unspectacular reliever in AAA.

I consider that a player with a .321 BABIP in the majors suddenly has a season with a .258 BABIP.

If the argument is that Bell had the potential to be a serviceable reliever, but the Mets didn't give him the chance, I can buy that. I think a guy who might be a serviceable middle reliever but struggles in the majors two years in a row is not a particularly valuable prospect and if you can get a league-average hitter with a weak OF and the bullpen arms the Mets had (pre-Sanchez injury), it's a no-brainer of a move.

If the argument is that the Mets should have known that something close to 2007 performance was a reasonable possibility, I'm challenging that.

Did I really see someone pining for Johnny Estrada? I mean, did that just happen?

Johnny Estrada was basically free and probably better than Casanova.

Ok, so it really happened.

Just to clarify that situation:

1. The Mets cut out the cancerous Mota and his $3 million.
2. Estrada was due to earn $4 million in arbitration, a little bit pricey for a 3rd catcher.
3. Estrada is known as a horrid receiver and a lazy clubhouse loser - and has a 450 OPS this season, which is to say, is one of the most useless players in the majors.
4. Raul Casanova is a Ken Phelps All-Star type whose career OPS+ is only a hair behind Estrada's and is signed for the minimum, which is to say, an ideal 3rd string catcher.

If Minaya could make moves that crafty every year the Mets would be unbeatable.

And by the way, if "let Estrada get away" is on your list of Minaya grievances, you should probably bow out of the discussion right now.

I think a guy who might be a serviceable middle reliever but struggles in the majors two years in a row is not a particularly valuable prospect and if you can get a league-average hitter with a weak OF

Ben Johnson was a league average MLB hitter in 223 MLB PAs. In 3597 PAs in the minors, he was a league average minor league hitter.

Weak OF? Beltran, Alou, Milledge, Green, Endy. What could Johnson do that could not be done by the existing OFs on the team, and in the system?

No. I'd put some serious weight on how in his 6th year of professional baseball, at age 25, he still wasn't able to dominate AAA. At age 26, he was able to be a decent, but unspectacular reliever in AAA.

He had 54 Ks and 8 walks at age 25.

I consider that a player with a .321 BABIP in the majors suddenly has a season with a .258 BABIP.

And that 321 BABIP came in how many innings? That 258 BABIP came in how many innings? He pitched a total of 108 innings with the Mets, 93.7 innings with the Padres. Who's to say which is a more accurate representation of his skill at preventing hBIP?

Alou may have fractured ankle

Nonetheless, I'm sure Dial will take comfort in Alou's high OPS+ from '04-'07.

Nonetheless, I'm sure Dial will take comfort in Alou's high OPS+ from '04-'07.

drecktro, have someone read you the Alou assessment in the Mets preview.

And by the way, if "let Estrada get away" is on your list of Minaya grievances, you should probably bow out of the discussion right now.

Personally I think trading for Estrada so we could jettison Mota's salary, an dthen not renewing Estrada, was a nifty little move...

Raul Casanova is kind of like poor man's Ramon Castro, hit pretty well for a catcher in the minors (not as well as Castro in AAA), has shown some pop in teh MLB- not quite as much as Castro

And that 321 BABIP came in how many innings? That 258 BABIP came in how many innings? He pitched a total of 108 innings with the Mets, 93.7 innings with the Padres. Who's to say which is a more accurate representation of his skill at preventing hBIP?

Also his BABIP in the minors tended to soar into the stratosphere his first time in a league, and then settle down after that.
My guess is his BABIP from here on will tend towards league average