SUNDAY:
Cubs (Marquis) at Cards (Mulder)
Reds (Belisle) at Brewers (Villanueva)

SEASON:
CHC 77-72
MIL 75-72 (1 GB)
STL 70-77 (6 GB)

SEPTEMBER:
MIL 8-5
CHC 9-7
STL 5-11

PRINCE FIELDER'S SEPTEMBER SURGE FOR MVP:
.422/.509/.911
45 AB: 7 HR, 12 RBI, 8 BB, 1 SO
(.292/.389/.623, 46 HR, 109 RBI in 2007)

I'm pretty sure we can safely leave the Cardinals out of this now.

13 games for the Cubs, 15 games for the Cardinals and Brewers.

Leave the Cardinals in until at least tomorrow. If they lose that and drop to 7 back, they're done. If they win, they're probably done but could at least make the Cubs and Brewers sweat.

When the hell did LaRussa start batting the pitcher 8th every day? I just noticed it in this week's box scores.

He's been doing that for a month or so now.

The tactic came to LaRussa in a dream. At a red light.

MIL Journal-Sentinel:

Ben Sheets threw only 50 pitches in an abbreviated start Friday night, so Milwaukee Brewers manager Ned Yost shuffled his rotation Saturday and will bring Sheets back a day early.
...
Now, Sheets will pitch on Tuesday in between Gallardo on Monday and Bush on Wednesday.

The latest shuffle has Sheets throwing on three days of rest, Gallardo on his normal turn - which with the off day means he'll have a fifth day of rest - and Bush now throwing on six days of rest.

Had Sheets thrown 60 or more pitches Friday night, Yost said, he wouldn't have shuffled the rotation.

The Cubs will also have Zambrano and Lilly pitching on three days rest next week.

The Cubs will also have Zambrano and Lilly pitching on three days rest next week.

Between this and Howry and Dempster looking a bit winded earlier this week (although Dempster looked fine this afternoon), I worry that Lou's boys are going to run out of gas at the end. Then again, the way this race is going I wouldn't be at all surprised to see both the Cubs and Brewers lose out for the last week of the season.

Today went better than I feared. Given the way the NL Central 'race' (good use of quotes there, NTN) has gone, I fully expected the Cubs to get swept and the Brewers to climb back into a tie for the lead.

I hadn't even realized that the Cardinals picked up Miguel Cairo at some point.

The tactic came to LaRussa in a dream. At a red light

Primey!

Prince Fielder hit his NL-leading 46th homer, setting a Brewers franchise record, and Milwaukee beat the Cincinnati Reds 5-3 on Saturday night to stay close in the NL Central… Fielder extended his career-best hitting streak to 13 games and is batting .422 with seven homers and 12 RBIs in September. He came out for a curtain call and got a hug in the dugout from Damian Miller.

MVP!

I actually don't see why you need "race" in scare quotes. It is a race, the winner makes the playoffs, nobody's truly backing into it. "Race" is something like the Yankees and Red Sox, where both are well ahead in the Wild Card and the advantages of winning the division are largely imaginary. The fact that none of these Central teams is good enough to win the Wild Card makes it a better race: two of them are going home afterwards.

I hadn't even realized that the Cardinals picked up Miguel Cairo at some point.

I hadn't even realized that he's not warming the Yankee bench.

where both are well ahead in the Wild Card and the advantages of winning the division are largely imaginary.

I heard that Bud decreed that the winner get first dibs on the rolls in the postgame spreads when they play each other in 2008. So there's that.

I heard that Bud decreed that the winner get first dibs on the rolls in the postgame spreads when they play each other in 2008. So there's that.

This time it counts!

For the record since Yost had Sheets throw 118 pitches against Houston over six innings on September 3rd Ben has given up 10 runs over nine innings. Now, that's to Cincy and Cincy can hit. But over his career Ben has handled the Reds pretty well until these last two starts with a career ERA of around 2.50.

I know what Yost is thinking. He's thinking that Ben had "two months off" so he must be rested. Well, since Ben had no rehab stints coming back I still don't think Ben's arm is in game shape. He's velocity is ok but his location is awful. His walk rate is up, and Sheets is getting way too much of the strike zone when he does throw a strike.

And what the h*ll is the difference between 50 and 60 pitches? Honest question. Ten pitches and the guy hasn't been overextended?

Bah, what Yost is REALLY trying to do is get Ben two starts on the road trip thinking that gives the team a better shot. Though actually I doubt Yost can think that deeply. He's probably trying to have Ben avoid Oswalt who is due to pitch Wednesday and thereby improve Ben's chances of winning. Who knows with that guy.

I have to say, the Cubs' losing by only a run last night is kind of amazing, considering how badly they played. They not only completely stopped hitting after the second inning (when they had Pineiro on the ropes), but they had two runners thrown out at home (the second on a bafflingly stupid decision by Mike Quade to send Theriot on Marshall's single to left with one out, and Soriano due to follow [naturally, Soriano homered, but sending Theriot would've been dumb anyway]), and they played horrible defense in the Cards' 4-run inning; Kendall's botching a routine throw to first on a third striked opened the floodgates.

It's a shame they couldn't've mustered any kind of offense the last 7 innings, because they got great work out of the garbageman portion of the bullpen.

I suppose I should take it as a positive that they lost by a run despite crapping the bed. And I should probably also settle down, since the Cubs really aren't in a bad position at all. They just need to take care of business over the next 13 games.

I wonder (a) how many baserunners and runs Mulder will allow today and (b) how many outs he will have recorded before he is finally pulled.

I believe that his ratio of outs recorded to runs allowed will be greater than 1.0-to-1 but equal to or less than 1.5-to-1.

naturally, Soriano homered

Soriano now has the worst OBP in the lineup and the most HR. His .279 OBP since the All-Star break is roughly 70 points below the park-adjusted league average. Good thing he hits leadoff!

Couldn't Lou or someone tell him that the team needs his HR power in the middle of the lineup? That sounds much more favorable than saying that he's hurting the team with his horrible OBP at the top. Does anyone in the organization realize that his batting leadoff is killing his value?

I hadn't even realized that the Cardinals picked up Miguel Cairo at some point.

I just realized that the Red Sox picked up Royce Clayton. Of course, I'm always a little shocked to remember that Royce Clayton is still in the league. Kind of sad that he's the last remaining starter from the 1996 Cardinals.

Wow, Glove Man. I see what you mean! Do the Cubs mainly use him at leadoff? I guess so, since he's on pace for only 60 RBI.

He's homered almost as often as he's walked. He's doubled more than he's walked. On pace for roughly 30 walks.

He's stolen bases with good success, but he's attempted steals less often than he's walked.

Could it be more obvious that he oughta be deployed further back in the lineup???
Gotta love them Cubs (from my perspective as a Cards fan).

Where you going to bat him? Fifth? Second? 3rd? 4th? You got DLee and ARam in that lineup as well. Move him to fifth and he loses PA's while gaining some runner with a good chunk of the time him basically being the 2nd batter up in the second vs. the first batter up in the firs. Move him to second? Not really much different then leadoff. 4th? Okay where does ARam bat? Third? With that swing and OBP? And if you do it where do you put Derrek and Aramis?

The NL average for leadoff OBP is .341, Soriano is at .327. SLG is at .425, he is at .526. The average NL leadoff hitter has 81 runs and 48.5 RBI if we match Soriano's PA. Soriano has 87 runs and 58 RBI. Soriano isn't costing the Cubs runs by batting leadoff. Sure if he had a .327 OBP with a .340 SLG you can make that case. But because Soriano is hitting homers he is negating the low OBP. Sure you would love him to have a .350 OBP to go along with a .526 SLG and when he is healthy maybe we'll see another .340 to .350ish OBP.

Do the Cubs mainly use him at leadoff?

Almost exclusively. He's got 40 PAs not at leadoff and 1 of them was as a pinch-hitter. He's led off in 113 of the 122 games he's started.

The argument espoused by the Cubs (I've heard Brenly use it - although I'm not sure he completely buys it, I get the sense he's just saying that's the excuse) is that Soriano is most comfortable leading off. For his career, his OPS is .883 (tOPS+ of 110)when he bats leadoff and .904 leading off an inning (tOPS+ of 115) vs. .838 overall. He also has an OPS of .860 w/ the bases empty (tOPS+ of 105) v. .800 w/ men on base (tOPS+ of 92).

I have no idea if any of those splits are real or if they're just sample-size issues, but they are consistent with the idea that Soriano's a better hitter when he's batting leadoff.

Forgot to mention in the NL this year the leadoff hitter gets 474 PA per 100 games. The 5th batter 432 PA per 100 games. Moving him down to the 5th spot would cost him 40 PA per 100 games. Or basically you are removing him for about 8 to 9 games per 100 when he is a leadoff hitter.

Oh and who would play the #1 spot for the Cubs. Theriot? DeRosa?

Oh and who would play the #1 spot for the Cubs. Theriot? DeRosa?

Realistically, it'd be Theriot and his OBP is a whopping .003 better than Soriano (.330 to .327) going into today.

Yep that is who I would think Lou or really any other manager would plug in to replace Soriano, and what would you get? You would get the .330 ish type OBP with a .370 SLG that would hurt you at the top of the lineup.

The Cubs are forfeiting a game next week by starting Zambrano on three days rest.

Yes, they have six starters and they're starting a guy on three days rest--their most volatile, but best guy, who might be injured, who they just signed to a long-term contract.

I'm still can't believe they are going to do that. It makes no real sense. 3 days rest or 4 days rest he still plays the Reds. Why would you do it? So you maybe lose 2-1 to Harang instead of winning 4-1 against Shearn? Then on top of all that we hear talk about the bullpen being used a lot being tired yada yada yada so you are going to have Zambrano go on three days rest? That will help that out?

Cubs fans, is there any future for Eric Patterson in Chicago, or are the Cubs going to trade him for a proven veteran reliever/fifth starter this winter?

The only chance Eric Patterson has for a future in Chicago is if they open up centerfield to a true competition between him and Pie next Spring, in which case, Patterson has a chance to win because his bat is more ML-ready. But then they would just trade him the next year.

He can't play second at ML quality. I see them dealing him to Atlanta (he's from the area) for a minor-league pitcher or backup infielder.

Where you going to bat him? Fifth? Second? 3rd? 4th? You got DLee and ARam in that lineup as well. Move him to fifth and he loses PA's while gaining some runner with a good chunk of the time him basically being the 2nd batter up in the second vs. the first batter up in the firs. Move him to second? Not really much different then leadoff. 4th? Okay where does ARam bat? Third? With that swing and OBP? And if you do it where do you put Derrek and Aramis?

Soriano is actually a fairly ideal #3 hitter. It's a misconception to put your best overall hitter third, as he will much more frequently bat with none on and 2 out than any other player in the order. Walks have very little value in that situation, so a mediocre OBP power hitter is a good fit.

In contrast, OBP is tremendously more important in the leadoff spot than in any other lineup position. Leadoff hitters bat with none on and none out about 41% of the time, when merely reaching first base has a very high run expectancy. Here is a list of Cubs regulars with a 360+ OBP: Lee, Ramirez, Floyd, DeRosa, Kendall. Any of them would be better than Soriano at the top of the order. I wouldn't expect the Cubs to put Lee or Ramirez there, but a lineup with one of those last 3 followed by Lee, Soriano, and Ramirez would project to score quite a few more runs over the course of the season than the current batting order.

According to baseball musings lineup calculator 11 out of the 30 best lineups have Soriano at the third spot. The other 19 spots are mostly dominated by non slugging good OBP guys of DeRosa and Floyd.

For his career, his OPS is .883 (tOPS+ of 110)when he bats leadoff and .904 leading off an inning (tOPS+ of 115) vs. .838 overall.

There's another variable at work there, though, because most of Soriano's non-leadoff time came in Texas -- and for whatever reason, he just didn't hit very well those two years in Texas.

There's another variable at work there, though, because most of Soriano's non-leadoff time came in Texas -- and for whatever reason, he just didn't hit very well those two years in Texas.

At the risk of reading too much into those splits I quoted, might the "whatever reason" be that he wasn't batting leadoff? What I find interesting about those splits is that they all seem to tell the story that Soriano hits better with the bases empty. If that's true, then leadoff probably is the best position for him - he's a good enough hitter that he's the kind of guy you want to have get as many plate appearances as possible, he's fast, and leadoff will generate the highest proportion of at-bats with nobody on base.

might the "whatever reason" be that he wasn't batting leadoff?

Of course it might -- it's just that another variable aligns almost exactly with the one you pointed out. Might equally well have been two years with nagging injuries or bad attitude or heat prostration :)

A home-run hitter that can't hit with men on sounds like a good candidate to be massively overrated by his cumulative stats. But I definitely have read from many sources that Soriano bats leadoff (with the Cubs, and with the Nats) because that's where he's comfortable.

Just incidentally, you would expect a batter most comfortable leading off to do exceptionally well leading off the game, which is the only unique thing a leadoff hitter does; and that is indeed the case with Soriano: .309/.353/.619 in 592 plate appearances batting first in the first inning (over 582 games, which I assume includes ten PAs in innings where his team batted around). One odd-looking line from those PAs is .309, 40 HR, 40 RBI ...