BBTF's Newsblog Discussion :: NL East race: September 22, 2008

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Tuesday, September 23, 2008

NL East race: September 22, 2008

MLB.com: Big eighth leads Phils to win vs. Braves

On the heels of Greg Golson’s baserunning heroics, the Phillies pounded out four runs in the eighth inning to beat the Braves, 6-2, on Monday night at Citizens Bank Park.

MLB.com: Mets lose ground after loss to Cubs

A 9-5 loss, coupled with Philadelphia’s victory on Monday night, left the Mets 2 1/2 games behind the first-place Phillies in the National League East and reduced their lead over the Brewers to one game in the Wild Card race… The Mets’ fifth loss in nine home games this month and their third in three games against the Cubs this season turned in the fourth inning, when winning pitcher Jason Marquis hit a grand slam off losing pitcher Jonathon Niese.

PHI 89-68 [14-6 in SEPT]
NYM 86-70 [10-9 in SEPT] (2.5 GB)

NTNgod Posted: September 23, 2008 at 01:31 AM | 37 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
Related News: General, NY Mets, Philadelphia, Game Recaps

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1. Crispix Attacks Posted: September 23, 2008 at 01:40 AM (#2950772)

Greg Golson has a ways to go before his career is as impressive as those of Gregg Olson or Greg Olson, but he's already accomplished more than Gre Ggolson, Greggo Lson, G.R. Egolson, or Grog Elson.

2. Harris Posted: September 23, 2008 at 01:40 AM (#2950773)

can someone help me out here.
I'm looking at baseball prospectus's playoff odds page, and it give the mets a higher pct3 than the phils.

I thought this # was based on runs scored vs runs against, but the phils lead the mets in that dept and the mets have a higher pct3.

3. Crispix Attacks Posted: September 23, 2008 at 01:43 AM (#2950776)

I thought it was expected winning percentage normalized to strength of schedule, and then normalized again once the OPPONENTS' winning percentage was normalized to THEIR strength of schedule.

The Phillies have really had an easier schedule than the Mets so far? Even though their remaining schedule is ALSO easier than the Mets'? That's odd.

4. Harris Posted: September 23, 2008 at 01:49 AM (#2950781)

yeah..see I don't get that either.
Considering in interleague the I think the trade was oakland (PHI) for Seattle (NYM) and we got the Red Sox and they got the Yankees. Doesn't make sense.

5. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: September 23, 2008 at 01:50 AM (#2950783)

The Phillies have really had an easier schedule than the Mets so far?

Well sure. They got to play 18 games against the Mets, while New Yorkers faced a superior Phillies team 18 times.

6. Harris Posted: September 23, 2008 at 01:55 AM (#2950789)

I guess....I didn't consider...that.

7. Lassus: Posted: September 23, 2008 at 02:37 AM (#2950826)

This is starting to get annoying. And it's just in time for the Brewers not to suck, too, probably.

#### you, Atlanta.

8. CFBF Hates Hyphens Posted: September 23, 2008 at 03:17 AM (#2950852)

In Atlanta's defense, the Braves haven't been able to touch the Phillies all year. This isn't a recent development.

9. strong silence Posted: September 23, 2008 at 03:31 AM (#2950865)

I'm glad Reyes had a nice performance tonight. Two straight horrible Septembers and he might start to earn a reputation like Barry Bonds had in the post season. And that can't be good for a youngster.

10. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: September 23, 2008 at 03:33 AM (#2950866)

Reyes was just padding his stats in a meaningless game

11. andrewberg Posted: September 23, 2008 at 03:53 AM (#2950888)

#1 is hilarious. Funniest thing I've read all day.

I think BPro's playoff odds are based partially on PECOTA, which had the mets as a much better team before the year. That's a pretty arrogant supposition, but nothing new.

At least they're not as self-aggrandizing as the Football Outsiders.

12. PatrickInTheWoods, Apostate Posted: September 23, 2008 at 03:56 AM (#2950891)

In Atlanta's defense, the Braves haven't been able to touch the Phillies all year. This isn't a recent development.

Yeah, but no Jones or McCann* until the end is just wrong.

* = designated Braves Phillies killer

13. NTNgod Posted: September 23, 2008 at 05:17 AM (#2950936)

About a half-hour after the game, the sight of a limping Carlos Beltrán with an ice pack on his left knee was not comforting. Beltrán ran into the center-field fence while making a catch in the seventh. The trainers told Beltrán he should leave the game because his knee was swollen, but he kept playing. He hopes to play on Tuesday.

“We’re in a situation where we have to play,” Beltrán said.

NY Times (RR)

14. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: September 23, 2008 at 05:37 AM (#2950945)

I just want it to be over, one way or the other. At this point, I'll be relieved either way.

15. user Posted: September 23, 2008 at 08:47 AM (#2950965)

Harris- I think the answer is its not using actual runs scored and allowed, but those expected from their batting lines and those alllowed.

http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php

I think BPro's playoff odds are based partially on PECOTA, which had the mets as a much better team before the year. That's a pretty arrogant supposition, but nothing new.

How is that arrogant? I think there's actually there's two versions, one based solely on seasonal data and one with a regression towards PECOTA.

16. Hubie Brooks (Not Really) Posted: September 23, 2008 at 12:04 PM (#2951002)

I feel like I am getting beat up everyday. This is crazy. Ugh.

17. RB in NYC (Now with New Running Goal!) Posted: September 23, 2008 at 12:09 PM (#2951004)

So it seems like the chance of the Mets being outright champs of the NL East is pretty slim at this point, right? Even if Philly goes 2-3, the Mets would have to drive to 5-1 just to tie. (At which point both teams would have 91 wins which I'm pretty sure gets you in so it's moot who is the actual champion except for bragging purposes.)

18. will Posted: September 23, 2008 at 12:33 PM (#2951024)

A NL East Championship, achieved via a tie-breaker, will be worth more then bragging rights. Would you rather play the Dodgers, with home field-advantage, or the Cubs, without home field advantage, in the first round ? Seems like a significant difference....

19. Harris Posted: September 23, 2008 at 01:54 PM (#2951113)

nobody hangs pennants for wild cards (or they shouldnt...)

20. Adam B. Posted: September 23, 2008 at 02:45 PM (#2951179)

In case of a divisional tie, when both teams will make the playoffs regardless, no tiebreaker game is held. Instead, Mets win the division based on h2h record (11-7), and Phillies get the WC. link to all tiebreaker scenarios.

21. Van Lingle Mungo Jerry Posted: September 23, 2008 at 02:50 PM (#2951188)

nobody hangs pennants for wild cards

I'm willing to bet virtually every team does. Whether they should is, of course, another question.

22. SoSH U at work Posted: September 23, 2008 at 02:55 PM (#2951199)

I'm willing to bet virtually every team does. Whether they should is, of course, another question.

Do the Yankees? I would hope they'd realize it's not necessary, or dignified, in their case.

23. Chris Dial Posted: September 23, 2008 at 02:58 PM (#2951203)

nobody hangs pennants for wild cards (or they shouldnt...)

People say that until they win one.

24. RB in NYC (Now with New Running Goal!) Posted: September 23, 2008 at 03:00 PM (#2951208)

Do the Yankees? I would hope they'd realize it's not necessary, or dignified, in their case.

The Yankee don't, so far as I can tell at the stadium, list anything but World Series titles and occasionally pennants (as in, league championship victories).

25. Harris Posted: September 23, 2008 at 03:04 PM (#2951212)

People say that until they win one.

Right now, you're praying your team wins the wild card.

26. Slivers of Maranville (SdeB) Posted: September 23, 2008 at 03:05 PM (#2951213)

I'm pretty sure they don't.

27. Karl from NY Posted: September 23, 2008 at 03:30 PM (#2951248)

On the Mets' pennant wall in right field, there's an entry for "1999 Wild Card And NLDS Winners".

"2000 National League Champions" is also listed, they were the WC that year. No other WCs in club history so we don't have any examples of a WC win without a playoff series win.

Interestingly, the NLDS win is listed on the 1999 WC banner but not the 2006 NL East banner.

28. Adam B. Posted: September 23, 2008 at 03:32 PM (#2951251)

I don't believe the Phillies have flags for the 1981 or 2007 first-round exits.

29. SoSH U at work Posted: September 23, 2008 at 03:36 PM (#2951259)

I don't believe the Phillies have flags for the 1981 or 2007 first-round exits.

But in 2007 they were division champions. Do they have no banners for the late 70s division champions?

30. Adam B. Posted: September 23, 2008 at 03:39 PM (#2951264)

Oops -- my bad. I forgot we pulled that one out and were not the WC. Yes, there is a 2007 flag, and there certainly are for 1976-77-78.

31. Win one for Agrippa (haplo53) Posted: September 23, 2008 at 03:48 PM (#2951275)

As franchises, I don't think the Mets or the Phillies have the pedigrees to be able to thumb their noses up at a Wild Card win.

32. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: September 23, 2008 at 03:56 PM (#2951290)

I would certainly hope that the Braves wouldn't put up a WC banner (not going to find out anytime soon). It looks ridiculous enough now with all those divisional banners out there reminding everyone of the disappointing first round exits. Make it special, league championships should be the cutoff. Unless you are the Yankees.

33. Harris Posted: September 23, 2008 at 04:21 PM (#2951320)

As franchises, I don't think the Mets or the Phillies have the pedigrees to be able to thumb their noses up at a Wild Card win.

I do. Winning the wild card is tantamount to saying "The Best Team in the League to not Win its Division"

The division banners from the 70's-80's for the Phils were in a time when it was a more impressive accomplishment, as you were fighting 6-7 teams to win your division. Now it's 5, unless you're in the joke NL West where it's only 4 and a .502 wp will get you the division some years (NL West = NHL Southeast). I think those pennants show a reasonable commemeration of an accomplished goal.

A wild card now is a throw in prize, that can be turned into a greater accomplishment, worthy of a pennant.

34. Win one for Agrippa (haplo53) Posted: September 23, 2008 at 04:37 PM (#2951343)

A wild card now is a throw in prize, that can be turned into a greater accomplishment, worthy of a pennant.

I think a reasonable valuation of the Wild Card like you have here is different from thumbing one's nose at it. My point is that neither the Mets nor the Phillies have been historically good enough to be able to regard the Wild Card the way the Yankees did for years and years (before they had to utilize it) - that it's the back door to the playoffs for the unwashed masses (i.e., the Red Sox).

Much, much more often than not, the Mets and the Phillies are those unwashed masses. To regard the Wild Card with that kind of general disdain is tantamount to having an unrealistic sense of entitlement.

35. Quiet Flows the Don Taussig Avenger (Edmundo)

Posted: September 23, 2008 at 04:43 PM (#2951352)

I don't think hockey teams put up 6th seed in the 1997 Prince of Wales Conference pennants, do they?

36. SoSH U at work Posted: September 23, 2008 at 04:50 PM (#2951366)

My point is that neither the Mets nor the Phillies have been historically good enough to be able to regard the Wild Card the way the Yankees did for years and years (before they had to utilize it) - that it's the back door to the playoffs for the unwashed masses (i.e., the Red Sox).

Well, the Yankees took advantage of the very first wild card, and also employed it two years later. But yes, it's their history that means they should have a higher standard for flag raising.

I've got no problem with the Rockies or Marlins or, if they do it this year, Brewers hanging one to commemorate earning the wild card.

37. Harris Posted: September 23, 2008 at 04:54 PM (#2951371)

I don't think hockey teams put up 6th seed in the 1997 Prince of Wales Conference pennants, do they?

If you finish 6th in the conference, but win your division, I'm quite certain you put up a pennant.

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