The Phillies have a league-leading 11 shutouts. Considering where they call home -- and considering the caliber of their pitching staff -- that's impressive.

That sound you hear is either the creaking of the foundations of the Mets lead or the roar of Philly feet.
Not sure which.

Here's where having Johan Santana is comforting. The Mets need a split of the next two games at least and have Johan and Pedro going. Pedro's hardly been dominant but you have to think they'll manage to win one of the next two.

NYM 77-62
PHI 74-64 (2 GB)

Or maybe?
NYM 79-62
PHI 77-64 (2 GB)

Russlan, but of course Santana is facing an equal. Add the fact that the Mets haven't seen Hamels, and Pedro is struggling, and I'd give the Phillies the advantage in both matchups.

Even if you think the Phillies have a 60% chance of winning each game, they are unlikely to sweep (.6 x .6 = .36). I expect a split of the next two games but I am not going to pretend that I am not a tad concerned.

Pedro does have a 3.48 ERA in his last 9 starts so don't make too much of his struggles.

That sound you hear is either the creaking of the foundations of the Mets lead or the roar of Philly feet.

Not sure which.

Um, how about . . . neither? Reality check:

The Mets had a three-game lead for one day.

They've had a 2.5 game lead on a couple of occasions.

Other than that, this is the biggest lead they've had all year. Which is to say, other than when the Phillies were way out in front in June, it's been a close race all the way. It's going to be a close race through September.

Myers was great last night. He had a pretty much unhittable curve ball, which he was throwing for strikes all game long. If the Mets could rebound from the way they lost the first game in Philly last week, to then go 6-1 the rest of the road trip (including winning the next night in Philly), they can certainly rebound from losing last night.

Russlan, but of course Santana is facing an equal. Add the fact that the Mets haven't seen Hamels, and Pedro is struggling, and I'd give the Phillies the advantage in both matchups.

First, Santana isn't facing an equal. Hamels is outstanding, but Santana is better. Second, Santana is facing a lesser offense; the Mets have outscored the Phillies despite the Phils playing in CBP. Third, Santana is facing an offense where most of the danger is from the left side -- advantage Johan.

Could the Phillies win both games? Of course they could. Pedro and Moyer both got pounded by today's foe the last time they faced each other; who the hell knows how that might go this time around? Either Santana or Hamels is capable of throwing a one-hitter on Sunday night.

The only thing giving the Mets' side of this a sense of dread is 2007. Well, this ain't 2007. The 2007 Mets didn't go 6-1 after losing a game the way they lost last Tuesday. It's a 50-50 proposition both days, boys. Let 'em play.

First, Santana isn't facing an equal. Hamels is outstanding, but Santana is better.

Santana: 152 ERA+, 51BB, 169K, 22 HRA
Hamels: 148 ERA+, 46BB, 174K, 24 HRA

Clealy, Santana has been a superior pitcher this year (rolls eyes)

Clealy, Santana has been a superior pitcher this year (rolls eyes)

Roll your eyes all you want. Santana is a better pitcher than Hamels; whether they've been relatively equal over 200 or so innings this year or not. He has a longer, superior, track record. Overall, the game on Sunday is a toss-up, as is the game today.

Except the game today isn't the game today. Already rained out; double-dip tomorrow.

Santana is a better pitcher than Hamels; whether they've been relatively equal over 200 or so innings this year or not. He has a longer, superior, track record.

That Santana has been a better pitcher does not mean he is a better pitcher.

Will either team flip their pitchers tomorrow? Would the Mets prefer to have Santana pitch against Moyer, to minimize the chance of a sweep ? Would the Phillies prefer to pitch Hamels vs. Pedro, and try to be sure to win at least one, avoid the lead increasing to 4 games, which would be disastrous ? I could argue both ways. Finally, if one team wanted to move its ace to the 2:15 game, could it be kept a secret, until the starter begins warm-ups? Any one know any recent baseball history of surprise starters in MLB ?

That's pretty fascinating will. I wonder how that works, in terms of making the announcement. For the Phillies I would say swap pitchers.

I have a big concern about Moyer facing a disciplined lineup like the Mets, and would prefer a 'gimme' win of Cole vs. Pedro.

Overall, the game on Sunday is a toss-up

Well, that's kind of what I said, right? Anyway, I don't see any reason to believe that Santana is a better pitcher right now than Hamels.

Santana is a better pitcher than Hamels; whether they've been relatively equal over 200 or so innings this year or not.


Well, do you care that Hamels has been the better pitcher over the last two seasons according to ERA+? Track record is all nice and good, but how far back do want to go. We have almost two full seasons of 2007 and 2008 to look at. Most projection systems use 3 years, and weight the third season much lower. And if you are talking about career, then Pedro is a hell of a lot better than anyone pitching this weekend.

I'm very happy for Johan, his family, and the folks in Minnesota that he was the best pitcher in the game from 2003-2006, but really, I don't see how an objective analysis can point to them as being anything other than equals right now.

Roll your eyes all you want. Santana is a better pitcher than Hamels; whether they've been relatively equal over 200 or so innings this year or not. He has a longer, superior, track record.

It's great that Santana was the best pitcher in baseball during his peak years, but he's trending downwards as he approaches 30 (K rates down; BB rates up) while Hamels is trending upwards. Hamels was better last year and just as good this year. Over the last 400+ innings, Hamels has been as good if not slightly better. Those are facts. To call Santana v. 2008 superior is supported by zero evidence.