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Monday, September 01, 2008

NL West race: August 31, 2008

MLB.com: Dodgers take series from D-backs

Derek Lowe pitched six scoreless innings while Andre Ethier and Casey Blake homered as the Dodgers punished Brandon Webb in an 8-1 win over the Diamondbacks on Sunday night.

Webb came into the game 19-5 on the season and 10-3 lifetime against the Dodgers, but he was chased after 3 1/3 innings, charged with eight runs (six earned)

MLB.com: Rox can’t execute against Padres

ARI 69-67
LAD 67-70 (2.5 GB)
COL 64-74 (6 GB)
NTNgod Posted: September 01, 2008 at 02:21 AM | 20 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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Page 1 of 1 pages
   1. shoewizard Posted: September 01, 2008 at 02:59 AM (#2924274)
All three of these teams suck. It's like a death march.
   2. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: September 01, 2008 at 03:12 AM (#2924280)
I really thought the Diamondbacks had this division wrapped up but to lose two games against the Dodgers with your two aces is a golden oppurtunity wasted.

I've been wrong about pretty much everything this year.
   3. shoewizard Posted: September 01, 2008 at 03:46 AM (#2924305)
Well they also got swept in SD with Haren, Webb and Johnson going....so this is not a strange event lately.

They suck.
   4. Tuque Posted: September 01, 2008 at 03:53 AM (#2924310)
Considering that Chad Billingsley has had a lower ERA than Dan Haren this year (and last year, though in fewer innings), I think Saturday's game was hardly a "golden opportunity." And Derek Lowe hasn't been half bad this year, either.

Today's game caused Webb's ERA to gain .23 runs, and his ERA+ to drop 11 points. Yikes.
   5. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: September 01, 2008 at 04:02 AM (#2924314)
If only the Dodgers hadn't played with their head up their asses for almost two weeks.
   6. ValueArb Posted: September 01, 2008 at 04:12 AM (#2924316)
Considering that Chad Billingsley has had a lower ERA than Dan Haren this year (and last year, though in fewer innings), I think Saturday's game was hardly a "golden opportunity."


Before the game Haren had the lower ERA, the better ERA+ and a significantly better xFIPS. Not only has he been the better pitcher this year, but given that it was a home game, it was reasonable to think it was a "golden opportunity" for the Diamondbacks.

Thank you for playing. Come again.
   7. Justin T contains indigenous nudity Posted: September 01, 2008 at 04:18 AM (#2924317)
Fielding independent pitching statistics are nice when you're not pitching in front of the same defense that has already inflated your ERA. Unfortunately, Haren was in front of one a little worse than one which has been supporting him most of the year. Haren against Billingsley should never be considered a gimme.
   8. shoewizard Posted: September 01, 2008 at 04:23 AM (#2924319)
Prior to the game, the trend was clearly in Billingsley favor. Prior to the game, he had 9 straight outings in which he allowed 3 ER or less. From April 30th on, he had a 2.68 ERA.

Meanwhile, coming into the game, over his previous 7 starts, Haren had allowed 61 hits in 47 innings and had an ERA of 4.56

Don't shout sample size at me VA. When it comes to pitchers, recent trend matters in trying to figure out the outcomes of an upcoming game.

D backs are only going as far as Webb and Haren can take them, and right now that appears not much further.
   9. akrasian Posted: September 01, 2008 at 05:00 AM (#2924331)
Billingsley was terrible the first four weeks of the season. He's been terrific since then, one of the best pitchers in the league. Not deserving of Cy Young consideration, but good enough that no pitcher should consider it a gimme against him.

I think he sulked the first four weeks - he was sent to the bullpen, despite deserving a starting spot, then got moved to start after adjusting to one inning work, and had trouble adjusting to the longer appearances for a few starts. Once he turned the corner, he's been very good overall, with the rare lapse.
   10. Chase Utley, Shooty's Favorite Robot (Joey Belle) Posted: September 01, 2008 at 07:01 AM (#2924350)
I think he sulked the first four weeks - he was sent to the bullpen, despite deserving a starting spot, then got moved to start after adjusting to one inning work, and had trouble adjusting to the longer appearances for a few starts. Once he turned the corner, he's been very good overall, with the rare lapse.


You are mistaken, Billingsley was never sent to the bullpen. His April 2nd start was rain delayed, and so Billingsley was pulled as a precaution, but then Torre used him in relief that game. He followed up by using him in relief again 2 days later. Torre's kind of dumb sometimes. I have the feeling that these relief appearances did more harm than good, and likely contributed to his suckiness for the month of April.

I am a huge Billingsley supporter, maybe not kevin loves Pedroia level, but Billingsley is my pick for the best young non-Lincecum pitcher in the game. I am kind of surprised he hasn't gotten more attention given his pitching for the Dodgers. Hell, he's only 23, he strikes out a guy per inning, and he's gotten better every year, what's not to love.
   11. Russ Posted: September 01, 2008 at 11:18 AM (#2924365)
Billingsley gets plenty of attention from me, because he, CC Sabathia, and Ricky Nolasco have been absolutely raking on my fantasy team in the second half of the season. I've moved from 17th to 10th (out of 18) since roughly the ASB.
   12. ValueArb Posted: September 01, 2008 at 01:54 PM (#2924401)
Prior to the game, the trend was clearly in Billingsley favor. Prior to the game, he had 9 straight outings in which he allowed 3 ER or less. From April 30th on, he had a 2.68 ERA.

Meanwhile, coming into the game, over his previous 7 starts, Haren had allowed 61 hits in 47 innings and had an ERA of 4.56

Don't shout sample size at me VA. When it comes to pitchers, recent trend matters in trying to figure out the outcomes of an upcoming game.


Haren's BABIP his last 6 starts is .426.

BWebb's BABIP his last 3 starts is .354.
   13. ValueArb Posted: September 01, 2008 at 02:29 PM (#2924422)
Unfortunately, Haren was in front of one a little worse than one which has been supporting him most of the year.


I guess it's that right fielder who's poor range let in an extra 15 hits Haren's last 6 starts.
   14. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: September 01, 2008 at 02:34 PM (#2924426)

Haren's BABIP his last 6 starts is .426.
BWebb's BABIP his last 3 starts is .354.

That's because they've been throwing garbage out there
You don't have BABIP that high unless you ##### suck
   15. Perros Posted: September 01, 2008 at 02:58 PM (#2924446)
Sometimes high BABIP is bad luck, but sometimes it means you're getting drilled.

The Giants are only 10 games back despite being 20 games under. If Zito can string together five good September outings...
   16. ValueArb Posted: September 01, 2008 at 03:32 PM (#2924473)
Sometimes high BABIP is bad luck, but sometimes it means you're getting drilled.


There are only two reasons BABIP is that high, bad luck, or injury/dead arm, or a mixture of both. If it was entirely injury/dead arm, i.e. their stuff is so weak it can't get MLB hitters out right now, it should be a very obvious injury to the pitcher and coaching staff. So far BoMel says they are both healthy and all evidence is their velocity is still good. And Brandon had a similar bad stretch in June and bounced back to be awesome again.

Occams razor says bad luck.
   17. Lassus: Posted: September 01, 2008 at 03:44 PM (#2924480)
I've asked this before, but in the midst of a race why on earth would the Diamondbacks be skipping Petit? I know I'm a fanboy, but that makes no sense at all.
   18. Tuque Posted: September 01, 2008 at 04:21 PM (#2924511)
Thank you for playing. Come again

Your sarcasm is crunchy and scrumptious. My response: what the other guys said.

(Why fight my own battles when others will fight them for me?)

...by the way, when the matter of which pitcher is better has been shown to be so debatable, as it has in this thread, doesn't that prove, in itself, that the game wasn't a gimme at all?
   19. npurcell Posted: September 01, 2008 at 05:10 PM (#2924573)
Besides the one mistake to Mark Reynolds, Scott Elbert make a nice big league debut this series.
   20. ValueArb Posted: September 01, 2008 at 06:56 PM (#2924811)
...by the way, when the matter of which pitcher is better has been shown to be so debatable, as it has in this thread, doesn't that prove, in itself, that the game wasn't a gimme at all?


Nice strawman. No one ever said it was a gimme, just that it was a "golden opportunity". A gimme implies a win probability in excess of 90%, a golden opportunity just in excess of 50%. And since no one addressed all my points, haren + home field advantage should be > 50% against anyone. And I correctly rebutted your claims about Billingsly's ERA being better.

I win! I win! Where is my crown? Who will carry the new king on their shoulders in my triumph? Oh, I forgot. I'm just a nerd sitting in front of a computer with only my adoring cat to witness my greatest triumphs.

And skipping Petit as poorly as the "studs" have pitched is begging for a disaster. If Webb/Haren don't revert to form immediately, the Dodgers are going to steam-roll. They have the easier schedule, the better offense, and the better bullpen. I'd pitch Petit and Scherzer back to back just to give Webb/Haren extra days off and pray they return refreshed.
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