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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Saturday, September 06, 2008NL West race: September 6, 2008MLB.com: D-backs lose hold on first place
LAD 72-70 ARI 71-70 (0.5 GB) NTNgod
Posted: September 06, 2008 at 07:04 PM | 24 comment(s)
Related News: General, Arizona, LA Dodgers, Game Recaps |
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Billingsley was cruising today, until that long inning left him sitting just a bit too long imo.
Obviously, nothing is wrapped up in a division where every team is mediocre at best.
But I can't think of any particularly convincing definition of the word "now" that wouldn't also include the 8-game losing streak along with the 7-game winning streak.
One side point, picking up on some comments made by the Fox announcing crew today: Those announcers still believe that Dodger Stadium is a pitchers park, and I rather suspect that that belief is quite widespread. But the park has changed, and the competing parks have changed, and Dodger Stadium is now at least a mild hitters park. And the Dodgers have terrific pitching, notably Lowe, Billingsley, and Kuroda, and the 'pen in general, particularly the lefties Biemel and Kuo.
That's a good point and I personally thought they were done after getting swept by the Nationals. That said, they have a .770ish OPS since Manny became a Dodger and their pitching has been strong all season. They still have some holes but I think they are better than their record says they are.
Actually, they've been much better than that. Since Aug 1, (Manny's first game in LA)
.282/.350/.455 .805 OPS
I explained why they weren't scoring as many runs as they should have in post #6 of This Thread
Arizona's is just a little tougher -- they've got six with Colorado and seven with SF, three hosting Cincinnati and four at St. Louis.
Slight edge for the Dodgers, which is wiped out because the Dodgers are 16 games under .500 on the road, where 13 of their last 19 are played. The D'backs get to play 10 of their last 19 at home.
If things come down to the last weekend, the D'backs host the Rockies, while the Dodgers must play their final three in San Francisco -- edge D'backs.
I want to see the Dodgers win it, but I wouldn't bet on them to.
You are certainly right in saying that the Dodgers look like the better team than the D'backs right now, but they are far from a great bet even if they sweep Az tomorrow.
As I said, they have a team OPS of .805 since the time Manny arrived. (8/1- 9/6) That is a good offense, and it's not all predicated on the 7 game win streak, although of course it's gotten a huge bump.
Maybe this will Help:
Team OPS since August 1
Chi .826
LA .805
Stl .804
Mil .780
Hou .778
NYM .757
WAS .748
ATL .742
SFO .729
AZ .729
CIN .724
FLA .711
COL .711
PHI .705
SAN .685
PIT .673
Sample size caveats and all that, after all, it's 37 days. But this is a completely different lineup with of course Manny in it, as well as Blake, and Ethier playing full time, and Jones, Pierre and Nomar NEVER playing. There were some flukey reasons why the Dodgers weren't scoring more runs during their losing streak. Of course they won't stay as hot as they've been the last week either. But this lineup is totally capable of hitting .780 OPS and scoring about 4.8 R/G the rest of the way. Thats PLENTY of offense with their pitching not just to beat the D backs for the Division, but to be a dangerous team in the playoffs.
You do have to give Dodgers' management a good bit of credit for remaking this team as the season went along, sending Jones into exile, finally benching Pierre, grabbing Blake to fill the hole at third, and obviously getting Manny (and for next to nothing). If the Dodgers can make the playoffs and at least win the Divisional Series, it would certainly quiet the naysayers who last week were saying they made a mistake giving up talent for Ramirez and Blake.
Berroa's success may be the most surprising of all, considering the grief Colletti got for that acquisition. As Steiner said after yesterday's game, baseball's is a long, long season that can only be judged by its final results.
Still, I wouldn't give up on the D'backs just yet.
The D backs will go as far as Webb and Haren can take them. Period.
These two teams are not very good. One may be a bit better, but the Dodgers wouldn't be in contention without the great fortune of being in NL West. Their losing would not be weird at all, even to another NL West team.
EDIT: I know this is sorta obvious. I just feel that lines like "they'll go as far as Webb and Haren can take them" are fitting for situations where one team is very good, and another isn't, and that second team might get lucky with a great run of starts. That doesn't fit what the Dodgers and DBacks look like to me.
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