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Saturday, September 06, 2008

NL West race: September 6, 2008

MLB.com: D-backs lose hold on first place

The D-backs fell out of first place in the National League West for the first time since April 5 as they fell, 7-2, to the Dodgers on Saturday afternoon at Dodger Stadium. The loss was the second straight for the D-backs, who have gone from being 4 1/2 games up just one week ago, to a half-game behind the Dodgers.

Arizona ace Brandon Webb (19-7) lost for the third straight start. The right-hander allowed seven runs on five hits while walking a career-high six in 5 2/3 innings.
...
[Manny Ramirez] smacked a three-run homer in the fifth and drove in two more in the sixth when Justin Upton misplayed his fly ball to right into a ground-rule double.

LAD 72-70
ARI 71-70 (0.5 GB)

NTNgod Posted: September 06, 2008 at 07:04 PM | 24 comment(s)
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   1. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: September 06, 2008 at 07:09 PM (#2931365)
Not all of the earned runs Webb gave up today were entirely his fault, but he still put them on base. He's not been the same pitcher these last few weeks. Is there a suspicion that he's injured, despite claims from the organization to the contrary?
   2. Boots Day Posted: September 06, 2008 at 07:12 PM (#2931367)
You don't want to wait for the Rockies game to post this?
   3. akrasian Posted: September 06, 2008 at 07:17 PM (#2931369)
There's a lot of speculation that Webb is gunshy on his follow through, after taking the ball in the chest a few weeks ago. That might explain the lack of control today.

Billingsley was cruising today, until that long inning left him sitting just a bit too long imo.
   4. shoewizard Posted: September 06, 2008 at 07:33 PM (#2931380)
Congrats Dodger fans. Enjoy first place. My guess is your team will be there the rest of the season. Manny really is a man among boys in the NL.
   5. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: September 06, 2008 at 07:58 PM (#2931398)
The way Steiner and Monday were celebrating, they'll certainly have egg on their faces if that doesn't happen.
   6. alex perros gives up the ghost Posted: September 06, 2008 at 08:11 PM (#2931404)
Think they were giddy because the Dodgers looked dead after getting swept in DC last week, and have played .500 ball all season, and still find themselves in first place.

Obviously, nothing is wrapped up in a division where every team is mediocre at best.
   7. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 06, 2008 at 08:34 PM (#2931415)
I'd like to hear more about somebody's "Manny's hurting the Dodgers" premise.
   8. Alan S Posted: September 06, 2008 at 08:49 PM (#2931425)
It was only kevin's premise, and I doubt we'll be hearing from him again about this, at least until the Dodgers go on a 2-game losing streak.
   9. Dewitty_Pun Posted: September 06, 2008 at 08:54 PM (#2931433)
I <3 L.A.
   10. The Mets make Russlan sad Posted: September 06, 2008 at 09:00 PM (#2931449)
The Dodgers have been moediocre this season but I think they are a legitimately good team now.
   11. npurcell Posted: September 06, 2008 at 09:07 PM (#2931459)
Andre Ethier is turning into awesomeness.
   12. OCF Posted: September 06, 2008 at 09:12 PM (#2931464)
... but I think they are a legitimately good team now.

But I can't think of any particularly convincing definition of the word "now" that wouldn't also include the 8-game losing streak along with the 7-game winning streak.

One side point, picking up on some comments made by the Fox announcing crew today: Those announcers still believe that Dodger Stadium is a pitchers park, and I rather suspect that that belief is quite widespread. But the park has changed, and the competing parks have changed, and Dodger Stadium is now at least a mild hitters park. And the Dodgers have terrific pitching, notably Lowe, Billingsley, and Kuroda, and the 'pen in general, particularly the lefties Biemel and Kuo.
   13. The Mets make Russlan sad Posted: September 06, 2008 at 09:18 PM (#2931473)
But I can't think of any particularly convincing definition of the word "now" that wouldn't also include the 8-game losing streak along with the 7-game winning streak.

That's a good point and I personally thought they were done after getting swept by the Nationals. That said, they have a .770ish OPS since Manny became a Dodger and their pitching has been strong all season. They still have some holes but I think they are better than their record says they are.
   14. shoewizard Posted: September 06, 2008 at 09:32 PM (#2931506)
That said, they have a .770ish OPS since Manny became a Dodger


Actually, they've been much better than that. Since Aug 1, (Manny's first game in LA)

.282/.350/.455 .805 OPS

I explained why they weren't scoring as many runs as they should have in post #6 of This Thread
   15. alex perros gives up the ghost Posted: September 06, 2008 at 09:57 PM (#2931552)
The Dodgers play six against both SF and SD, three at Colorado and four at Pittsburgh.

Arizona's is just a little tougher -- they've got six with Colorado and seven with SF, three hosting Cincinnati and four at St. Louis.

Slight edge for the Dodgers, which is wiped out because the Dodgers are 16 games under .500 on the road, where 13 of their last 19 are played. The D'backs get to play 10 of their last 19 at home.

If things come down to the last weekend, the D'backs host the Rockies, while the Dodgers must play their final three in San Francisco -- edge D'backs.

I want to see the Dodgers win it, but I wouldn't bet on them to.
   16. shoewizard Posted: September 06, 2008 at 10:04 PM (#2931560)
I don't know what games you guys are watching. The Dodgers have the far superior offense for last 5 weeks. It's not even close.
   17. alex perros gives up the ghost Posted: September 06, 2008 at 10:20 PM (#2931573)
I've followed the Dodgers pretty closely all season, and their offense has clicked the past week. But when LA was losing ten of their previous 11 games prior to this winning streak, they scored more than three runs exactly once, in a 5-4 loss to Philly.

You are certainly right in saying that the Dodgers look like the better team than the D'backs right now, but they are far from a great bet even if they sweep Az tomorrow.
   18. Nathan Kunkel Posted: September 07, 2008 at 02:15 AM (#2931664)
Webb is effectively pitching himself out of a Cy Young. 3 starts, 13.2 IP, 12 walks, 19 earned runs. Say hello, Tim Lincecum.
   19. shoewizard Posted: September 07, 2008 at 02:31 AM (#2931665)
Alex, as I said in the thread linked, the Dodgers offense was just getting unlucky earlier. From Aug 1- to Aug 29 they hit for a 768 OPS, which is very good, (5th best in the NL during that date range) but due to a ton of double plays and bad luck with RISP, they just couldn't close the deal in terms of runs scored.

As I said, they have a team OPS of .805 since the time Manny arrived. (8/1- 9/6) That is a good offense, and it's not all predicated on the 7 game win streak, although of course it's gotten a huge bump.

Maybe this will Help:

Team OPS since August 1

Chi .826
LA .805
Stl .804
Mil .780
Hou .778
NYM .757
WAS .748
ATL .742
SFO .729
AZ .729
CIN .724
FLA .711
COL .711
PHI .705
SAN .685
PIT .673

Sample size caveats and all that, after all, it's 37 days. But this is a completely different lineup with of course Manny in it, as well as Blake, and Ethier playing full time, and Jones, Pierre and Nomar NEVER playing. There were some flukey reasons why the Dodgers weren't scoring more runs during their losing streak. Of course they won't stay as hot as they've been the last week either. But this lineup is totally capable of hitting .780 OPS and scoring about 4.8 R/G the rest of the way. Thats PLENTY of offense with their pitching not just to beat the D backs for the Division, but to be a dangerous team in the playoffs.
   20. alex perros gives up the ghost Posted: September 07, 2008 at 09:12 AM (#2931683)
It's not that I don't believe they are hitting much better with Manny in the lineup... that losing streak skewed my perspective admittedly. The Dodgers OPS has been aided by Berroa's 767 OPS post ASB and DeWitt's resurgence, which probably can't continue.

You do have to give Dodgers' management a good bit of credit for remaking this team as the season went along, sending Jones into exile, finally benching Pierre, grabbing Blake to fill the hole at third, and obviously getting Manny (and for next to nothing). If the Dodgers can make the playoffs and at least win the Divisional Series, it would certainly quiet the naysayers who last week were saying they made a mistake giving up talent for Ramirez and Blake.

Berroa's success may be the most surprising of all, considering the grief Colletti got for that acquisition. As Steiner said after yesterday's game, baseball's is a long, long season that can only be judged by its final results.

Still, I wouldn't give up on the D'backs just yet.
   21. shoewizard Posted: September 07, 2008 at 10:40 AM (#2931714)
Still, I wouldn't give up on the D'backs just yet.


The D backs will go as far as Webb and Haren can take them. Period.
   22. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 07, 2008 at 10:52 AM (#2931715)
With just 20 games to go, the D Backs will go as far as their players will take them, or as far as the Dodgers' players won't take them. Three good starts from Max Scherzer, or a hot streak from Young or Dunn, or 30 innings by the top relievers with no HRs allowed, or the Dodgers falling apart in the clutch again, or any number of things could win the division for the D Backs.

These two teams are not very good. One may be a bit better, but the Dodgers wouldn't be in contention without the great fortune of being in NL West. Their losing would not be weird at all, even to another NL West team.

EDIT: I know this is sorta obvious. I just feel that lines like "they'll go as far as Webb and Haren can take them" are fitting for situations where one team is very good, and another isn't, and that second team might get lucky with a great run of starts. That doesn't fit what the Dodgers and DBacks look like to me.
   23. shoewizard Posted: September 07, 2008 at 11:34 AM (#2931726)
Well, anything can happen over a short period of time, you are of course right about that. I've watched both these teams VERY closely all year. I think I've picked the trend correctly. Hope I'm wrong of course. I would like nothing better than for AZ to get a fluke shot at the playoffs. But if you think AZ is going to get to the playoffs without better performances from Webb and Haren than what they've been getting, than I don't think you are in tune with the reality "on the ground" here. If these two guys continue to suck, the odds of getting enough innings and enough quality from the rest of the rotation are VERY poor. Sure, there is a chance. Just a really really small one.
   24. ValueArb Posted: September 07, 2008 at 12:25 PM (#2931737)
How about that DBacks bullpen?!!! 6 & 1/3 innings only 2 earned runs. I knew they'd come through when the games really mattered...
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