BBTF's Newsblog Discussion :: NL Wild Card Madness, September 26: Padres still lead by a game

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Thursday, September 27, 2007

NL Wild Card Madness, September 26: Padres still lead by a game

Wild Card Standings:
SDP 87-71
PHI 86-72 (1 GB)
COL 86-72 (1 GB)
ATL 83-75 (4 GB)

Winners: Padres, Phillies, and Rockies
Losers: Braves

NTNgod Posted: September 27, 2007 at 03:43 AM | 33 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
Related News: General, Atlanta, Colorado, Philadelphia, San Diego

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1. NTNgod Posted: September 27, 2007 at 03:52 AM (#2545050)

THURSDAY:
Padres (J. Cassel 1-1, 4.00) at Brewers (Y. Gallardo 9-4, 3.59)
Braves (J. Smoltz 14-7, 2.95) at Phillies (K. Kendrick 9-4, 3.83)
Rockies (F. Morales 2-2, 3.15) at Dodgers (E. Loaiza 1-3, 8.53)

SEPTEMBER:
COL 17-7
ATL 14-9
PHI 14-10
SDP 13-11

2. Urban Faber Posted: September 27, 2007 at 03:54 AM (#2545052)

So all the Braves need is to win out, have the Brewers sweep the Padres, and have the Rockies lose at least three out of four to Arizona, and they're in a tie.

3. Gern Blanston Posted: September 27, 2007 at 04:33 AM (#2545073)

Go Pads! (I reserve the right to retract that statement if and when the Cubs meet the Pads in the playoffs.)

4. Gambling Rent Czar Posted: September 27, 2007 at 06:03 AM (#2545109)

Go Pads!

thats the spirit!!

..
The Rockies have to lose sooner or later, right?

5. Chip Posted: September 27, 2007 at 06:35 AM (#2545113)

Shouldn't the Mets be on this list at this point?

6. Gambling Rent Czar Posted: September 27, 2007 at 07:01 AM (#2545118)

Shouldn't the Mets be on this list at this point?

yeah they'll be on tomorrows list for sure. :)

7. Quiet Flows the Don Taussig Avenger (Edmundo)

Posted: September 27, 2007 at 10:58 AM (#2545141)

So all the Braves need is to win out, have the Brewers sweep the Padres, and have the Rockies lose at least three out of four to Arizona, and they're in a tie.

And have the Phils lose 2 of 3 to the pesky Nats

8. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: September 27, 2007 at 11:06 AM (#2545143)

Rockies win 3 of 4 against the Backs, Pads win 2 of 4 against the Brewers, Mets win 2 of next 4, Phils win 3 of next 4, Cubs win 1 of next 4. An 84 win Central champion Cubs get to rest and enjoy the chaos as five 89 win teams duke it out over three playoff spots.

edit. OK, COL/ARI have only three games against each other. Both play other teams today. But it could still work out.

9. Gern Blanston Posted: September 27, 2007 at 11:31 AM (#2545154)

The Rockies have to lose sooner or later, right?

I don't much care. I just want the Brewers to lose.

Actually, I take that back--I want the heat to be on the Pads long enough for them to have to use Peavy in the Brewers series. Then again, if the Cubs take care of business and/or the Pads do well in the first 3 games, the Sunday matchups won't matter.

10. Gern Blanston Posted: September 27, 2007 at 11:33 AM (#2545156)

An 84 win Central champion Cubs get to rest and enjoy the chaos as five 89 win teams duke it out over three playoff spots.

By the standards set last year, the Cubs would be slightly overqualified to become world champs with their 84 regular season wins, but given their history, they could use a bit of a cushion.

11. Sean Forman Posted: September 27, 2007 at 11:33 AM (#2545157)

What would happen if all five teams end up tied?

12. Gern Blanston Posted: September 27, 2007 at 11:34 AM (#2545158)

FWIW, I'll be pretty damned disappointed if the Cubs don't win 2 of their last 4. That they haven't beaten the Marlins this year is pathetic. (They've lost *9* straight to them going back to last year.)

13. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: September 27, 2007 at 11:36 AM (#2545160)

What would happen if all five teams end up tied?

I'm not sure, but presumably they'd first have to sort out the division winners, which would require a round robin in the West. then probably another round robin WC playoff. It would be awesome. And it probably would have to be done over 2 days.

14. Bob Dernier Cri

Posted: September 27, 2007 at 11:38 AM (#2545162)

Even if you're no fan of the Wild Card, and I'm certainly not, this whole National League mess this September is pretty exciting.

15. Quiet Flows the Don Taussig Avenger (Edmundo)

Posted: September 27, 2007 at 11:43 AM (#2545164)

I'm not sure, but presumably they'd first have to sort out the division winners, which would require a round robin in the West. then probably another round robin WC playoff. It would be awesome. And it probably would have to be done over 2 days.

Bring 'em all to one site and run it like a tournament. That would be mega-cool.
How would you like to be the traveling secretary for one of the teams?

16. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 27, 2007 at 11:44 AM (#2545165)

According to the helpful b-ref page on the playoffs, it's not technically a "round robin" - the team with the best record against the other two teams gets to watch the other two play, then plays the winner. The team with the second-best record against the other two teams gets to host both playoff games.

Club"A" shall play Club "B" at the ballpark of Club "A" on Monday, September 29. The following day (Tuesday, September 30), the winner of the first game shall be the home Club in a second game, against Club "C." The winner of the game between Club"C" and the Club that won the game between Club"A" and Club"B" shall be declared the Division Champion.

Example of Scenario #4: The Chicago White Sox, Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins tie for the AL Central Division Championship. The Seattle Mariners have a better record than all three tied Clubs and would be the Wild Card. Based on their head-to-head records through games of September 7 (CWS 7-5 over each Minnesota and KC; KC 11-8 over Minnesota), the White Sox would choose their designation as Club "A," "B," or "C," and Kansas City would choose a designation from the remaining two designations. Minnesota would be assigned the remaining designation.

Sadly, this will probably never happen. But god damn would it be awesome.

17. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 27, 2007 at 11:50 AM (#2545168)

According to baseball's rules, the true doomsday scenario - 5-team tie in the East and West - would require four days to sort out, since both three-team ties (NL West, NL Wild Card) would require two days to handle. I don't know what baseball would do in that scenario - they'd have to speed things up to match with the tv schedules, but I don't know how.

18. JJ1986 Posted: September 27, 2007 at 11:59 AM (#2545172)

This is what needs to happen,

Brewers and Padres split.
Mets go 2-2
Phillies go 3-1
Rockies win tonight, then beat the Dbacks 2-1 and Dbacks lose tonight or Dbacks win tonight, Rockies lose and Rockies sweep this weekend.

19. Social media assassin (Templeusox) Posted: September 27, 2007 at 12:04 PM (#2545178)

The Pads making the playoffs would be bad for baseball.

20. Steve Parris, Je t'aime (M. Valentin) Posted: September 27, 2007 at 12:10 PM (#2545183)

A potential tie-breaking scenario in today's Inquirer:
If the Phillies, Padres and Rockies finish in a tie for the National League wild card, head-to-head records would designate teams as Clubs A, B and C. The team with the best record (the Rockies at 14-11) would have the first choice. The team with the second-best record (the Phillies at 7-7) would have the second choice. The team with the worst record would take the remaining option (the Padres at 11-14).

The Rockies would choose between being Club B or C. Club B would host Club A on Monday and host Club C on Tuesday. Or the Rockies could be Club C, have a bye Monday and play one game on the road against Club A or B on Tuesday.

It would not be a surprise if the Rockies chose Club C, which means the Phillies could host two one-game playoffs next week at Citizens Bank Park.

21. bunyon Posted: September 27, 2007 at 12:29 PM (#2545205)

If all 5 NL teams end up tied? Simple: just take the best 5 players off each team to assemble one playoff worthy team.

22. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: September 27, 2007 at 12:37 PM (#2545212)

Rockies and Dbacks play only 3 games, and those are 3 games too many...

The Dbacks desperately need to win today to maintain at least one game lead over SD and two game lead over CO going into their 3 game set at Coors. The Dbacks also have Webb going for them. If they lose with their ace on the hill and get swept by the Pirates, the Dbacks are done. Mark it.

It would be a craptastic choke job given their 3 game lead over SD with 6 games to play, but given the Dbacks notorious streakiness and propensity to go ice cold at the drop of the hat, I won't be shocked at all if it transpires. But no worries, they'll be really hot in October...

23. Gern Blanston Posted: September 27, 2007 at 12:54 PM (#2545227)

If they lose with their ace on the hill and get swept by the Pirates, the Dbacks are done.

Baseball's so damn weird. The Pirates are on the verge of sweeping the D'Backs (well, maybe not quite "on the verge," with Webb starting, but you know what I mean), after having lost 9 straight coming into this series, and having just been swept impressively by the Cubs, who are now depending on a Steve Trachsel start to avoid being swept by the Marlins.

24. Gern Blanston Posted: September 27, 2007 at 01:00 PM (#2545236)

And that scenario described in 20's just bizarre. I didn't even know the possibility of something like that existed.

25. RB in NYC (Now with New Running Goal!) Posted: September 27, 2007 at 01:05 PM (#2545243)

I'm selfishly hoping the Mets get invovled in this nonsense, because I really want to attend a one-game playoff at Shea.

(Incidentally, when they did all the coin flips, were the Mets and/or Rockies even invoivled?)

26. JJ1986 Posted: September 27, 2007 at 01:07 PM (#2545247)

If all 5 NL teams end up tied? Simple: just take the best 5 players off each team to assemble one playoff worthy team.

Using 5 from each team, but not necessarily the best because they need catchers, I get this,

SS Rollins, 3B Wright, CF Beltran, 1B Howard, LF Holliday, 2B Utley, RF Alou, C Bard
Chris Snyder, Helton, Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, Byrnes
Peavy, Webb, Hamels, Chris Young, Francis
Heath Bell, Brett Myers, Tony Pena, Brandon Lyon, Manny Corpas, Hoffman, Wagner

27. JJ1986 Posted: September 27, 2007 at 01:08 PM (#2545248)

(Incidentally, when they did all the coin flips, were the Mets and/or Rockies even invoivled?)

Mets would be at Philly for the division.

28. Boots Day Posted: September 27, 2007 at 01:16 PM (#2545258)

The Dbacks also have Webb going for them.

I thought I saw that Webb was going Friday against the Rockies... So the Diamondbacks will come into Coors needing to win at least one game to clinch the division, and they won't have their ace going in any of the three. Sweet.

29. RB in NYC (Now with New Running Goal!) Posted: September 27, 2007 at 01:27 PM (#2545278)

Presented merely for sake of argument, since I'm sure even the BPro guys would say these numbers are no better than a best guess at this point:

Playoff Odds (Division Chance)

Cubs: 89.4 (89.4)
Mets: 85.8 (77.4)
Diamondbacks: 83.0 (62.3)
Padres 57.2 (22.2)
Phillies: 41.7 (22.4)
Rockies: 32.5 (15.3)
Brewers: 10.1 (10.1)

They also say there's a 30.5% chance of a tie in the West, with a 6.7% chance of a three-way tie. The Wild Card has a 44.1% chance of a two-way tie, 32.3% outright winner, 17.5% three-way tie, 5.3% four-way tie and 0.8% chance of a five-way.

30. Kiko Sakata

Posted: September 27, 2007 at 01:37 PM (#2545292)

The Wild Card has a 44.1% chance of a two-way tie, 32.3% outright winner, 17.5% three-way tie, 5.3% four-way tie and 0.8% chance of a five-way.

I love that there's twice as much chance of their being a tie as of an outright winner in the Wild Card race. I wonder what the overall odds are that there'll be at least one tie somewhere in the NL.

Also, how weird is it that the Cubs have the best overall odds of making the playoffs (and that they took over the top spot by losing their second straight to the Marlins)?

31. TerpNats Posted: September 27, 2007 at 01:41 PM (#2545304)

The NL pennant race is like what a writer said about the 1945 World Series: I don't think any team can win.

32. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: September 27, 2007 at 01:49 PM (#2545309)

The Cubs and Brewers only add up to 99.5% in the NL Central. Were the Cardinals really taking one simulation out of every 200?

33. RB in NYC (Now with New Running Goal!) Posted: September 27, 2007 at 01:58 PM (#2545327)

The Cubs and Brewers only add up to 99.5% in the NL Central. Were the Cardinals really taking one simulation out of every 200?

Their percentages actually add up to 100, I just did a crappy job on my abbreviated rounding. The only team not listed up there which has any chance of making the playoffs is the Braves, listed at .03243%

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Thursday, September 27, 2007

NL Wild Card Madness, September 26: Padres still lead by a game

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