It's a big surprise to one poster.

This is not a surprise. Neither player was likely to get nearly as much on the free agent market as they would have in arbitration.

Again, I'm surprised the Yankees went this direction as Abreu was really their best option in right. Would a one year obligation have killed them? Are they pinching pennies in the Bronx all of a sudden?

c Molina/Posada
1b Swisher
2b Cano
3b A-Rod
ss Jeter
Lf Damon
CF Melky/Gardner
Rf Nady
DH Posada/?

That is an underwhelming offense unless they get best case scenarios from a few of these guys and there's no guarantee they'll get any of their free agent pitching targets. What's the strategy here?

It's a big surprise to one poster.

Ha! To be fair, it's a surprise to me and I'm the one who broached the idea they would decline on Abreu. I didn't really believe they would.

Not offering arb to Abreu comes as a surprise to me.

Abreu was Type-A, so he would have washed out some of the picks the Yankees will presumably lose signing Sabathia/Teixiera/Burnett. Worst case scenario (he accepts), you've got a one year rental on a very durable, ~120 OPS+ player for about $16 million. That wouldn't exactly kill the Yankees. The more likely scenario is he finds a two or three year deal for guaranteed money and declines.

did they really stand to make more than $16 million in arbitration as the article asserts?

I am very surprised about the Abreu decision, although I wonder if this means they're all in for Teixeira (with Swisher taking over Abreu's role in right)

I can see the Yankees not offering Aberu arbitration due to his high salary(Who's going to play RF for them though?), but I can't see Andy Pettitte making anywhere near the $16 million mark via arbitration. At best, he'd get $10 million, I'd say.

What's the strategy here?

c Posada
1b Teixeira
2b Cano
3b A-Rod
ss Jeter
Lf Damon
CF Swisher
Rf Nady
DH Matsui

Looks better, no?

Looks better, no?

Of course, but is there heat? Hal nor Hank have offered any public ultimatums to Tex yet so I have no idea what's going on there.

The Yankees just gave away two draft picks in a year where they are likely to lose at least their first rounder, and quite possibly more. It's a bad decision in most years, but even worse this one. The addition of pick 29 for not signing Cole helps, as does 76 for losing Bittle, but this still stings.

Abreu's going to be 35 years old by the time the season starts and isn't going to get a long-term deal without giving the team that signs him something of a discount, especially if he were offered arbitration. That's why accepting arbitration was always going to be an attractive option for him. He's been healthy so he'd be willing to go for the big payday in 2009 and then be in the same spot next year.

What's a reasonable guess for the biggest contract Abreu would have gotten as a free agent had he been offered arbitration? 3y/36m? If I'm Abreu, I probably think I can get more than that accepting arbitration this year and then signing a two year deal next offseason.

I can't imagine that the Yankees fancy Swisher as a CF, Levski. If they get Teixiera, then Damon is the CF.

They will probably have a centerfield rotation of Damon, Melky, Gardner & Swisher.

Woohoo! My "take the under on every single contract rumor/prediction" stance is looking good so far.

Woohoo! My "take the under on every single contract rumor/prediction" stance is looking good so far.

I think we're getting an indication that we're in for a long, deep recession, and the teams are already seeing the signs of it.

If I'm Abreu, I probably think I can get more than that accepting arbitration this year and then signing a two year deal next offseason.

The danger of course is the Nomar Syndrome, where he gets injured next year and thus loses a lot of what he would have gotten for a multi-year deal this year.

I think we're getting an indication that we're in for a long, deep recession, and the teams are already seeing the signs of it.

Well, I'm not trusting baseball owners to be my economic weathervane -- though they probably have a better track record than economists! -- but that's certainly a possibility. Another possibility is that everyone sees a deep recession coming and the owners are taking advantage of that to "correct" the baseball labour market.

But this may also be a sign that baseball teams are getting better at "correctly" valuing players and the Yanks recognize that a 35-year-old, below-average defensive RF isn't a step in the right direction and isn't better enough than Nady to justify the extra $10 M he'd cost over Nady if he accepted arb.

There's also the fact that there are about 7 other guys with Abreu's rough skill set on the market already. There are bargains to be had if you're willing to live with sub-par defense for a while.

Also, by not offering Abreu arb, his FA salary should actually go up from what it would have been as the signing team will not lose a draft pick. And the old restriction no longer applies right and the Yanks can negotiate with Abreu like any other team, can't they?

Anyway, as Shooty essentially points out, the Yanks are still missing at least one piece on offense. My guess is they really want to find a CF solution. I have no idea who they might find but that would allow them to rotate Swisher/Nady/Damon/Matsui/Posada on off days among 4 spots. That rotation still could use another 1B/OF type but it doesn't have to be a Tex.

They will probably have a centerfield rotation of Damon, Melky, Gardner & Swisher.


You can put together a package of those guys that would make a great player---Swisher's power (and batting eye), Damon's contact ability, Gardner's legs & Melky's arm.

Unfortunately, no one actual player on the list is really a quality CF at this point, either.

And the old restriction no longer applies right and the Yanks can negotiate with Abreu like any other team, can't they?

That is correct.

I think most teams are anticipating that, at a minimum, revenues from television contracts are likely to take a major hit if they're renegotiated or renewed anytime in the next 18-24 months. All sorts of businesses are looking to curb ad buys, particularly the auto industry. Does anyone have data on when various contracts are up for renewal around the league?

I wonder if Abreu not being offered arbitration affects the Dbacks thinking on offering it to Adam Dunn. Abreu makes one more player of reasonably similar value to Dunn, but who will only cost a team money, not draft picks or players.

I think the Yanks didn't want to be stuck with him, and would rather spend the $15M+ on Teixeira.

I don't think this has anything to do with Teixeira. I think it's just that the Yankees have enough players for the LF/DH/1B slots on the team,and didn't want to add another who would make $16M+ and would be very hard to trade.

The addition of pick 29 for not signing Cole helps, as does 76 for losing Bittle, but this still stings.

No it doesn't, because you don't have that talent in your farm system right now.

I don't think this has anything to do with Teixeira.

I tend to agree. I think both NY teams are dark horses for Teixeira at the moment. If he moves towards "bargain" territory (say 5/$100) then maybe they'll get back into it.

I think part of the motivation behind the Swisher trade was that it allows them a lot of flexibility as to which hole they fill through FA/trade -- 1B/CF/RF -- and it allows them the chance to fill that hole through signing two good 400 PA-type players and mix/match with all their old guys. That then, I think, gives them the payroll flexibility to pick up Sabathia and another top pitcher.

With the Mets, while it doesn't make a Tex signing impossible, the Delgado renewal (a perfectly sensible move in isolation) signalled (to me) that Tex is not a high priority for them.

I'm not sure either team is making the right decision (if those are the decisions they've made). For the Mets in particular, I've argued that this may be similar to the Yanks passing on Beltran -- Tex is likely an excellent, long-term solution to 1B. For the Yanks, I too would probably prefer an excellent, long-term solution to CF (I was arguing heavily for Beltran way back when) but none seems available. Tex and Swisher would seem excellent and average-ish (respectively) long-term solutions at 1B/RF (with Swisher possibly consigned to CF for this season ... and moving into a floater role if the offense doesn't come back sufficiently).