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Sunday, July 06, 2008

N.Y. Daily News: Spector: Rounding the bases vs. being on base

Much like LMD’s “The Low Murderer is Out At Night”...Ryan Howard is grinding away to somewhere peculiar.

So what about Howard, who is still two and a half seasons away from free agency? His power is not an out-of-nowhere phenomenon like Batista or Sprague. He’s looking more like a modern-day Kingman or Rob Deer. Howard’s career OPS+ is 142, far above Kingman’s 115, but certainly trending downward. In fact, it’s trending downward enough that I have to wonder at this point in his career whether Howard will join this list - the most homers for a hitter with a career OPS+ mark of 120 or lower:
Dave Kingman:     442 HR, 115 OPS+ 
Andre Dawson:     438 HR, 119 OPS+ 
Cal Ripken:       431 HR, 112 OPS+ 
Darrell Evans:    414 HR, 119 OPS+ 
Andres Galarraga: 399 HR, 118 OPS+
And now that I’ve compiled this list, it’s the first time that I’ve questioned myself for my opinion that Dawson should be in the Hall of Fame.

The next five on that list are Joe Carter, Graig Nettles, Harold Baines, Matt Williams and Carlton Fisk. So of the top 10 on that list, the only Hall of Famers are Ripken and Fisk, each of whom played a premium position in the field - and each of whom, I believe, could be argued against as Hall of Famers on the basis of their impressive career statistical totals being a result of abnormal longevity.

Repoz Posted: July 06, 2008 at 06:42 AM | 7 comment(s)
Related News: General, Sabermetrics, Philadelphia

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1. Greg K Posted: July 06, 2008 at 10:55 AM (#2845355)

I think I get his point, but it's rather unfortunate wording. It SOUNDS like he's saying Ripken and Fisk are borderline Hall of Fame guys, which is a bit silly.

2. JH (in DC) Posted: July 06, 2008 at 11:16 AM (#2845362)

I'm not sure what his point is (it seems like mostly statistical meandering), but the obvious counterpoint on Ripken and Fisk is positional scarcity. The numbers are much more impressive from a catcher or a shortstop than from a first baseball or a corner outfielder.

3. jesse spector Posted: July 06, 2008 at 01:18 PM (#2845470)

JH, I think it is a bit of statistical meandering -- I just thought it was some interesting stuff to point out.

And no, I don't think that Ripken and Fisk are borderline Hall of Famers (though I do think Ripken, in particular, is overrated because of the streak) -- I'm just stating that for those looking to have an argument, this would be in the column against those two guys.

Obviously, there's no be-all, end-all stat -- and if you tried hard enough, you could find something that would put anyone in a bad light. But I think that kind of discussion is always fun and interesting, which is the point.

4. Greg K Posted: July 06, 2008 at 01:41 PM (#2845488)

True

It's kid of funny, "over-rated because of the streak" is pretty much my word-association with Ripken as well.

5. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: July 06, 2008 at 02:11 PM (#2845512)

Ripken is not remotely overrated. He's famous for the wrong thing--the streak--as opposed to the right thing, which is being the second-greatest retired shortstop in major league history. The combination of his hitting, defense, durability, and the scarcity of the SS position and difficulty of domination of the 1980's AL make him comfortably a member of the Hall's inner circle. People should stop talking about the streak and start talking about the fact that Cal Ripken was a f'ing insanely amazingly valuable ballplayer.

6. Walt Davis Posted: July 06, 2008 at 03:14 PM (#2845638)

But I think that kind of discussion is always fun and interesting, which is the point.

Just a tip ... when you write a column about Howard and high-HR, "low" OPS guys, you want the discussion to be about Howard and where he's likely to fit. Instead, the throwaway and truly tangential "point" about Fisk and Ripken will lead some number of readers to immediately conclude you obviously don't know what you're talking about and will lead the remaining discussion into one about Fisk, Ripken, peak vs. career. Maybe that's an interesting discussion, but it's not the topic of your article.

7. GGC won't apologize for liking the Red Sox Posted: July 06, 2008 at 03:26 PM (#2845664)

Michael Schell's system (which just accounts for offense but adjusts for position) has Ripken at #28; 6th among shortstops.

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Sunday, July 06, 2008

N.Y. Daily News: Spector: Rounding the bases vs. being on base

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