Like anyone you could write this article about--Hoffman, A-Rod, etc.--I think Wagner would be fine in big situations. But until he brings his postseason ERA down to something that is merely bad instead of actively humiliating, he's going to face these questions.

Wagner is fine, Dial told me the postseason doesn't matter.

I assume Howard knows this, but that comparison on save percentages is meaningless, as it includes "saves" blown in the 6th inning by AAAA relievers. Either Wagner should be compared to only closers, or you have to recalculate the overall save percentage to include holds as saves.

Unfortunately, most readers don't know this (or at least don't bother to think about it too much), so you are disseminating misinformation.

Any time Wagner blows a game it automatically becomes a big game. The same thing happened with Benitez.

The 2006 Saturday afternoon game against the Yankees was mentioned. But what makes that game any different, in terms of "bigness" than the 4 out save he recorded against the Yankees?

In 2008, Wagner has had a sufficiently successful season to earn a spot on the All Star team once again. But earlier this season, when the pressure was greatest on Willie Randolph, Wagner hastened the manager’s departure.

Couldn't you just as easily say that if Wagner hadn't pitched so great in the first 6 weeks of the season Willie would have been gone even sooner?

Not that Wagner doesn't have his hiccups, but I don't like the way the games he blows are framed in comparison to the ones he saves. The same thing happened with Benitez, and probably Franco as well. I remember reading on a message board that a couple of games Benitez blew early in the 02 season were "big games."

Wagner's biggest sin is not being Mariano Rivera and pitching in the same city as Rivera.

I assume Howard knows this, but that comparison on save percentages is meaningless, as it includes "saves" blown in the 6th inning by AAAA relievers. Either Wagner should be compared to only closers, or you have to recalculate the overall save percentage to include holds as saves.

Unfortunately, most readers don't know this (or at least don't bother to think about it too much), so you are disseminating misinformation.

I was about to make this same point. For those like me who couldn't quote it from memory, here is the Save rule:

10.20 Credit a pitcher with a save when he meets all three of the following conditions:

(1) He is the finishing pitcher in a game won by his club; and

(2) He is not the winning pitcher; and

(3) He qualifies under one of the following conditions:

(a) He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning; or

(b) He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, or at bat, or on deck (that is, the potential tying run is either already on base or is one of the first two batsmen he faces); or

(c) He pitches effectively for at least three innings.

No more than one save may be credited in each game.

Per the BR Bullpen, a blown save occurs whenever a pitcher enters the game in a save situation and allows the tying run to score. This can't happen if a pitcher enters the game in the 5th inning for a struggling starter (as that pitcher would be eligible for the win), but could happen at any point thereafter so long as the team had a lead.

I thought I remember reading MGL saying the average save percentage for closers is something like 80%. Anyone else know?

But Wagner seems to have his greatest difficulty in games with either higher stakes, or even higher perceived stakes, as he showed Tuesday night, allowing the tying run in the eighth inning of the All Star Game.

Amazing how differently events are interpreted depending what point someone wants to prove.

Wagner blows an all-star game save, and it's proof of gaggi-ness, since the ASG is "even higher perceived stakes".

Ted Williams is an ASG hero, and it merely shows how he could not come through when it "really" mattered, like the 1949 playoff game.

So, which is it.... ?

Can Billy Wagner Close a Big Game?

NO!

Any time Wagner blows a game it automatically becomes a big game. The same thing happened with Benitez.

You can't compare blowing a game against the Reds or Marlins to the Braves or Phillies.

Emotionally, the games are not equivalent.

The 2006 Saturday afternoon game against the Yankees was mentioned. But what makes that game any different, in terms of "bigness" than the 4 out save he recorded against the Yankees?

Because blowing a four run lead in excruciating fashion is more memorable than getting a four out save once in ####### while?

When you consistently get ###### by a particular player (Pat Burrell) and lose games on which your entire season hinges, you deserve any criticism thrown your direction.

You can't compare blowing a game against the Reds or Marlins to the Braves or Phillies. The games are not equivalent.

He's only blown one save against Philly and Atlanta this year and that was a game they ended up winning.

Because blowing a four run lead in excruciating fashion is more memorable than getting a four out save once in ####### while?

Sure. But my point was when he blows that game it's a big one, and when he saves it, it isn't.

When you consistently get ###### by a particular player (Pat Burrell) and lose games on which your entire season hinges, you deserve any criticism thrown your direction.

Wagner has a weird split against Burrell. 235 BA allowed, and 235 OBP allowed. But 735 slugging. 2 HR will do that to you.

How did the Mets entire season hinge on that game? They were 2 games ahead when they lost it, and built the lead back to 7.5. Of course, when you lose the division by one game, I guess your season hinges on every game, but if that is the case, then Wagner saved 34 games the Mets season hinged on. And if that is the case, then Rivera deserves every criticism he gets too.


Are your two least favorite players Santana and Wagner?

I don't trust the guy

He's only blown one save against Philly and Atlanta this year and that was a game they ended up winning.

Did Wagner hit the HR to give us a lead in extras? Did Wagner come in and get Utley and Howard out?

Sure. But my point was when he blows that game it's a big one, and when he saves it, it isn't.

It probably has something to do with the fact that when he saves a game, it's usually equivalent to a cat hanging on to the ####### clothesline thirty stories up. When he saves the game, you get the sense that mother opened the window and pulled him in.

Wagner has a weird split against Burrell. 235 BA allowed, and 235 OBP allowed. But 735 slugging. 2 HR will do that to you.

Both of those HR's came in Mets losses, too!

How did the Mets entire season hinge on that game?

Emotionally, it meant everything. Logically, it meant everything.

Because you can't get swept in a four game series with your division rival in late-August. They were brutal defeats to boot.

Are your two least favorite players Santana and Wagner?

I just like getting on Santana for throwing the team (and, by implication, David Wright) under the bus.

Wagner is on a whole other level. There is raw emotion associated with that little man.

I really dislike Wagner, but it has nothing to do with his pitching. He just seems like an #######. If it weren't for that, there would only be a few closers I'd prefer over him.

Wagner's history of blowing up in big games didn't start when he got to NY. Want to know why he's hated in Philadelphia? See here - http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHI/PHI200509070.shtml - and here - http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHI/PHI200509060.shtml

Two games to Houston in September, one of which came after the Phillies came back from a 5-3 lead in the 8th to take a 6-5 lead, and (wait for it NY fans) a few weeks after he ripped his teammated for not wanting to win enough.

The Phillies missed the playoff on the last day of the season by one game. To Houston.

AHH I HATE THE INTERNETS

Because you can't get swept in a four game series with your division rival in late-August. They were brutal defeats to boot.

Yeah, that was a brutal series. But they got they added 5.5 games to the lead in the 15 games or whatever after that. It wasn't like it shattered them emotionally or anything. They didn't go into the tank after that. They waited until the next time Philly swept them.

It probably has something to do with the fact that when he saves a game, it's usually equivalent to a cat hanging on to the ####### clothesline thirty stories up. When he saves the game, you get the sense that mother opened the window and pulled him in.

This I don't get. The league is hitting 189 with a 234 OBP against him. It isn't like he is a late 90's John Franco who is putting a ton of guys on base and dodging bullets. (In 1998, the league hit 267/347/364 off Franco; his WHIP was in the 1.45 range in 98 and 99. That's a shaky closer.) His ERA went over 1.00 for the first time on June 8. He has 5 K to every BB.

He has had an interesting phenomenon going on which I remember looking at after the game in Philly he almost blew. Those were the first runs he had given up in a game he got a save. Prior to that, he had given up a few runs in a game against the Reds where the Mets were trailing, but every other time he gave up even one run, he had blown a save. It was a very weird distribution of runs allowed, one that I can't imagine will continue. But he probably had the worst possible 2.30 ERA or whatever it was, because every time he gave up a run he was blowing a save.

Wagner is on a whole other level. There is raw emotion associated with that little man.

I don't particularly like him either, don't get me wrong. I constantly finding myself wishing he would just stop talking. Some stuff I just think is unfair.

I think the simplest explanation for this is that Mets fans are emotionally scarred.

But he probably had the worst possible 2.30 ERA or whatever it was, because every time he gave up a run he was blowing a save.

I have been hating a little bit on Wags in chatter but he's still an elite closer who has been a little unlucky this year. Wagner, and the bullpen in general, isn't something that the Mets have to worry much, IMHO.

I have been hating a little bit on Wags in chatter but he's still an elite closer who has been a little unlucky this year.

I agree. I think it is unusual to have allowed the number of runs he has and to have had the amount of blown saves he has had.

I assume Howard knows this, but that comparison on save percentages is meaningless, as it includes "saves" blown in the 6th inning by AAAA relievers. Either Wagner should be compared to only closers, or you have to recalculate the overall save percentage to include holds as saves.

Unfortunately, most readers don't know this (or at least don't bother to think about it too much), so you are disseminating misinformation.

With all due respect, this is not misinformation. My point is that he is miles above other relief pitchers. Obviously, that gap closes when you whittle the comparison down to higher-quality pitchers- but the point stands either way.

Look, it is a cliche to assume that your closer only blows big games, since it usually isn't particularly memorable when a guy comes in and gets a 1-2-3 save. I went to look at Wagner's time with the Mets with that in mind, and with the idea that really, evaluating clutch performance is difficult because of sample size.

But his percentage of conversion is much lower when it seems there's any reason for Wagner to be feeling any amount of added pressure. Against the Yankees, against the Phillies, his dominance is greatly reduced. And it isn't because he's getting beaten by good hitters, either. Against the Phillies, he walked Eric Bruntlett. So Taguchi homered off of him. Against the Yankees, he walked Melky Cabrera, then WALKED KELLY STINNETT to force in a run, and hit Bernie Williams to force in another.

The crazy part is his ability to run off long streaks of saves will help the Mets get to big games. Another closer blows an additional 5-7 games, and the Mets might not sniff the postseason. But his lack of results in these spots is alarming. This isn't Armando Benitez, who never knew where the ball was going, and sometimes it came back to bite him. This isn't John Franco, who always weathered men on base. This is different.

With all due respect, this is not misinformation. My point is that he is miles above other relief pitchers. Obviously, that gap closes when you whittle the comparison down to higher-quality pitchers- but the point stands either way.

It still is though. Because many of the guys who blow those saves don't have a chance to pick up a save. Heilman got a blown save for the runs he allowed last night, but if he hadn't allowed any runs he couldn't have picked up a save. Like the original poster said, if you include holds back into the equation it would be better.

Edit: I am a little surprised to see that baseball reference doesn't seem to track holds, at least on a league wide basis.

With all due respect, this is not misinformation. My point is that he is miles above other relief pitchers.

It is not an apt comparison, and it is 100% misleading. You're counting the other relievers' failures (blown saves) against them, but not crediting them for their successes (holds). To the extent that saves mean anything, the only way to make your stat meaningful at all is to use (SV+HD)/SVOPP.

EDIT: Coke for Conor

It still is though. Because many of the guys who blow those saves don't have a chance to pick up a save. Heilman got a blown save for the runs he allowed last night, but if he hadn't allowed any runs he couldn't have picked up a save. Like the original poster said, if you include holds back into the equation it would be better.

I agree. Is there a stat for blown holds? There should be.

BTW, what do you guys think the Mets are going to do long-term with the closer role? Sign K-Rod and move Wagner? I don't think that's realistic and I am not sure I want K-Rod anyway considering the cost and the decline in his peripherals. Heilman's been a little to inconsistent for my taste but is he an option at closer?

BTW, what do you guys think the Mets are going to do long-term with the closer role? Sign K-Rod and move Wagner?

I think Wagner is going to be here next year. How many teams that would be willing to pay 13 million for a closer don't already have a good one? (The Yankees have one, Boston does, Dodgers do, etc.) Ok, well I guess the obvious answer would be the Angels if/when K-Rod leaves.

Wow, K-Rod has 26 BB and 41 K? Thats like 5.8 BB/9.

I don't particularly like him either, don't get me wrong. I constantly finding myself wishing he would just stop talking. Some stuff I just think is unfair.

If he was Mariano-like off the field, in a word, 'classy', I would feel bad for dogging him as much as I do.

Unfair? That's life in the big city. I just can't defend him. Lucky or unlucky, the bastard deserves what he gets.

Wow, K-Rod has 26 BB and 41 K? Thats like 5.8 BB/9.

How many saves has he blown? I'm guessing fewer than Wagner.

With all due respect, this is not misinformation. My point is that he is miles above other relief pitchers. Obviously, that gap closes when you whittle the comparison down to higher-quality pitchers- but the point stands either way.

Howard, with all due respect to you, you don't seem to understand posts 3 or 5. While closers are better as a group than average relief pitchers in general, this isn't the entire source for the disparity between Wagner's save percentage and the average save percentage of the league.

First of all, closers in general are the only players who can earn saves, but anyone can blow them. Set-up men contribute zero saves to the numerator but blown saves to the denominator of the league-wide Save Percentage. Imagine a two-reliever league populated by Wags and Marmol. Impute on them equal abilities to hold a given lead and an equal number of leads to blow. Marmol earns 36 holds on 40 chances, with four blown saves; Wags saves 36 games in 40 chances, with 4 blown saves. Thus, the "league" save percentage is 36/44, or 81%; Wagner, with his 90% save percentage, appears "better than average", even though I've stipulated he's exactly as good as the other guy. Extrapolate this model to the league and you'll see why your comparison is faulty.

In addition to that, closers generally face easier situations than set-up men, in that they are rarely called upon with men on base. If a starter leaves with a one run lead in the 6th and the bases loaded and no outs, the guy who relieves him gets a blown save if he induces a double play. Closers typically enter the game with at least a one run lead and no one on base.

Dammit. I'm too slow and wordy.

But isn't the problem that you are not comparing apples to apples, since a save can be blown over a whole period of innings, so you would expect league wide save rates to be much lower than that of any individual pitcher? Even if every relief pitcher were as good as Billy Wagner, the league wide save conversion rate would be lower than Billy Wagner's. In any case, the point that Wagner is a very good pitcher is obviously valid.

Is there a stat for blown holds? There should be.

There isn't. And while I agree there should be, you can't really do it. I mean, we all know--for example--that if the Mets are leading 5-3 and Sanchez comes in to pitch the eighth that he's there for just the 8th.

But if Sanchez coughs up the lead, then you can't just assume that Sanchez wasn't going to stay in for the save, and thus award him a "Blown Hold," rather than a "Blown Save."

(I'm aware Sanchez/Wagner is a terrible example of this because the Mets have clearly defined roles. It would be a lot more trouble on a team with no closer, or when the usual closer has worked 4 days in a row or what have you.)

Is there a stat for blown holds? There should be.

Felix Heredia used to have one, it was listed under "G" on baseballreference.com.

Perhaps rather than save percentage, the relevant metric of reliever effectiveness is (SV + H) / (SV + H + BS). Is there something I'm overlooking about this? I mean, sure, you'd rather use ERA/K/BB/HR to evaluate a pitcher, but if you wanted to compare how many times Wagner blew it vs a Met reliever, wouldn't this work?

But if Sanchez coughs up the lead, then you can't just assume that Sanchez wasn't going to stay in for the save, and thus award him a "Blown Hold," rather than a "Blown Save."

They could just consider holds and saves as successful attempts and all blown saves as failures and just have a success rate. I think that'd be a good stat.

EDIT- Or what Kyle said.

How many saves has he blown? I'm guessing fewer than Wagner.

Yeah. Since K-Rod has become a closer, he is at 88% (including holds), and Wagner is at 88% as well.

I'm just really surprised by the K and BB totals for K-Rod. That's very unlike him. He had struck out over 12 batters per 9 for 4 years running, and now he is just under 9. His walks have gone up too. What's up with that? I assume it's not indicative of any long term changes in his talent level, but I would want to be sure before I paid him a ton of $.

But isn't the problem that you are not comparing apples to apples, since a save can be blown over a whole period of innings, so you would expect league wide save rates to be much lower than that of any individual pitcher? Even if every relief pitcher were as good as Billy Wagner, the league wide save conversion rate would be lower than Billy Wagner's. In any case, the point that Wagner is a very good pitcher is obviously valid.

Right. I think the issue is that you can have multiple blown saves in a game, but only one save. A better comparison might be (Saves + Holds)/(Save opportunities), but that still has issues since a reliever can earn a hold for a performance that would not have earned a save.

First of all, closers in general are the only players who can earn saves, but anyone can blow them.

Right. This is the essential point that I missed. I completely see it.

Fortunately for me, the larger point, that Wagner's overall percentage is much better than the average closer, is unaffected. But you guys are completely right on this- I should have totaled up the closer save percentage for an apples-to-apples comparison. Thanks for pointing this out.

Perhaps rather than save percentage, the relevant metric of reliever effectiveness is (SV + H) / (SV + H + BS). Is there something I'm overlooking about this? I mean, sure, you'd rather use ERA/K/BB/HR to evaluate a pitcher, but if you wanted to compare how many times Wagner blew it vs a Met reliever, wouldn't this work?

I would endorse this stat 100%

I guess I was even slower!

Perhaps rather than save percentage, the relevant metric of reliever effectiveness is (SV + H) / (SV + H + BS). Is there something I'm overlooking about this? I mean, sure, you'd rather use ERA/K/BB/HR to evaluate a pitcher, but if you wanted to compare how many times Wagner blew it vs a Met reliever, wouldn't this work?

Thinking about this more, it doesn't work. It's on average tougher for a closer to record a save than it is for a reliever to record a hold. A reliever can enter in the 7th inning with a 4-run lead and earn a hold by only pitching one inning, even if he allows 3 runs. He can enter in the 8th with a 3-run lead, record 1 out, and get a hold. However, a closer doing the same thing in the 9th does not earn a save.

In other words, it is easier to earn a hold than it is to earn a save in comparable situations.

Is there a stat for blown holds?

Yes. It's called a blown save.

Holds occur only when the pitcher meets these criteria in the save rule: 10.19(b), 10.19(c), and either 10.19(d)(1) or 10.19(d)(2). When a pitcher meets 10.19(d)(1) or 10.19(d)(2), the pitcher is pitching in a save situation - and if he gives up the lead after entering the game in one of those situations, he gets credit for a blown save. (The three-inning rule in 10.19(d)(3) doesn't apply when figuring holds.)

A reliever can enter in the 7th inning with a 4-run lead and earn a hold by only pitching one inning, even if he allows 3 runs. He can enter in the 8th with a 3-run lead, record 1 out, and get a hold.

Only when there are runners on base at the time he enters.

-- MWE

However, a closer doing the same thing in the 9th does not earn a save.

Yeah, but they'd get a hold, which is the same as a save in that formula, making their total the same.

BTW, MWE, if you are still around and it wouldn't be too much trouble, do you know anything about the defensive skills of Josh Thole, a catcher for the the St. Lucie Mets?

I apologize if this is too forward.

Also, most often a closer comes in with the bases empty, which a set up man or middle reliever might come in with a couple runers on base and 0 or 1 out, and must avoid letting the game becoming tied to record that hold. There are more than enough instances where I tihnk getting a hold equals or is touger than getting a save that it cancels out.

do you know anything about the defensive skills of Josh Thole

Not a thing. It's hard to get any info about the FSL, because most of the franchises are owned by the ML teams and aren't exactly free about sharing info. I'll tap some of my scouting sources.

-- MWE

Not a thing. It's hard to get any info about the FSL, because most of the franchises are owned by the ML teams and aren't exactly free about sharing info. I'll tap some of my scouting sources.

Thank you very much.

Since we are on the topics of Met relievers, how confident are you guys in Sanchez and Heilman as setup men? Heilman's strikeout rate and k/bb ratio are excellent this year, and he has pitched much better recently but his ERA is still around 5.00. Duaner Sanchez's results have been very good and his secondary stuff is still outstanding but his velocity is inconsistent.

Man, it's too bad Duaner got hurt. I really think he was about to become something special as a reliever.

I am a little surprised to see that baseball reference doesn't seem to track holds, at least on a league wide basis.

It does in the PI. Marmol leads the majors with 22 holds. He has 2 blown saves.

it is easier to earn a hold than it is to earn a save in comparable situations.

This is a good point, but I think those situations are fairly uncommon. In general I think (SV + H) / (SV + H + BS) is a number worth tracking. It has its limitations -- just like every single stat -- but I think it is much more accurate/useful than talking about the career save percentage (Sv/Sv+BS) of a setup man who just became a closer, or something like that, which we often see.

I'm aware Sanchez/Wagner is a terrible example of this because the Mets have clearly defined roles.

Almost everyone nowadays has these clearly defined roles: seventh-inning reliever, eighth-inning reliever, LOOGY, closer.

Back in the day, teams usually waited until the current pitcher got into trouble before bringing in a reliever. Nowadays, teams do that less and less; they bring in relievers (not just the closer) to START innings. The percentage of relief appearances that occur at the start of an inning has gone up.

My presentation on relief pitcher usage for this conference in October was accepted, albeit as a poster rather than as a talk. Given some of the guys who ARE talking, I'm not at all unhappy about that.

-- MWE

Almost everyone nowadays has these clearly defined roles: seventh-inning reliever, eighth-inning reliever, LOOGY, closer

This is true, and I'll grant it's not impossible for the offcial scorer to work out, but I still like Kyle S's stat better than trying to figure the hold/save thing.

I'm not trying to defend Wagner, who seems like a jerk, but I think that fans complaining about their closer is both common and is often rooted more in perception than reality. As the article and a number of posts have noted, Wagner has an excellent conversion rate, even when compared only to other closers. But it simply does not stick in the mind when a closer merely does his job, unless it is a particularly memorable game, such as a Game 7. Every blown save, however, does stick in the memory. And because we see our own team's closer far more often than we see anyone else's, the memory of those blown saves colors the perception. For example, if the average save rate among closers is 70% (I'm pulling that number out of the air, but I suspect that the real number is somewhere close to that) and Wagner's is 88%, then Wagner is obviously doing much better than most. But because an avid Mets fan sees every one of those 12% that he blows, while seeing very few of another teams's average closer's 30%, the perception is that Wagner blows more saves than other closers. And because those blown saves are more memorable than the saves, the perception is also that he blows the big games more regularly -- simply because we are less likely to remember the successful appearance against the Phillies than we are the unsuccessful one.

The three-inning rule in 10.19(d)(3) doesn't apply when figuring holds.

That's only true for the SportsTicker definition of a Hold. STATS awards holds in those situations. (This is according to Rob Neyer's Baseball FAQ)

Marmol leads the majors with 22 holds. He has 2 blown saves.

That's because when you blow a five-run lead in the ninth it's not a blown save.

However, a closer doing the same thing in the 9th does not earn a save.

Yeah, but they'd get a hold, which is the same as a save in that formula, making their total the same.

Not really. Using the STATS definition, a reliever can enter the game in the 7th inning of a four-run game and record a hold, because that's a save situation. But a reliever entering a four-run game in the 8th or 9th innings cannot record a hold or save because it is not a save situation. Even if the first guy allows three runs, he still can get a hold, whereas the other two guys cannot even if they allow no runs.

The point is that certain performances which would earn you a hold in the seventh inning would not earn you a hold or a save in the eighth or ninth. You can construct similar situations for pitchers entering in the middle of the eighth vs. the middle of the ninth.

Another way to put it is that it's harder to earn a save than it is to earn a hold, all other things being equal, because the save requires you to finish the game and the hold doesn't. Comparing save conversion rates to hold conversion rates isn't really fair.

With the data now available, I think it's better just to come up with new stats for relievers rather than try to work with the highly flawed existing ones.

With the data now available, I think it's better just to come up with new stats for relievers rather than try to work with the highly flawed existing ones.

This is a fair point and one that I agree with. The only "good" thing that using a metric based on saves, holds, and blown saves it that it can capture poor clutch performance that merely looking at aggregate K/BB/HR/ERA overlook. Of course, there are other, better ways of capturing that without resorting to a hacked-up stat like SV + HLD / (SV + HLD + BS)...

This is a fair point and one that I agree with. The only "good" thing that using a metric based on saves, holds, and blown saves it that it can capture poor clutch performance that merely looking at aggregate K/BB/HR/ERA overlook.

Of course. But with PBP data I think it would be possible to actually measure the difficulty of a situation and the quality of the pitcher's performance more directly.

I agree completely. Hence my last sentence.

But because an avid Mets fan sees every one of those 12% that he blows, while seeing very few of another teams's average closer's 30%, the perception is that Wagner blows more saves than other closers.

But this isn't remotely my point. I acknowledge that Wagner, on balance, has a better success rate than nearly any other closer. But his failures in higher-pressure situations are far more frequent than they are in typical situations-and not merely when facing the better hitters from those teams. His walks go up. His home runs allowed go up, and often to non-home run hitters. And so on.

For a team with designs on October, this is both a plus (his high success rate will help get the Mets in position to succeed in October) and a major problem (will he shut down a team to help the Mets win a critical September game? A playoff series? The World Series?)

I freely admit that the sample size involved doesn't allow us to come to any firm conclusions about Wagner's abilities in such a spot- indeed, it's pretty much impossible to fully quantify, and that is frustrating to me. But there's a remarkable amount of anecdotal evidence for 2.5 years as Mets closer.

Sure. But my point was when he blows that game it's a big one, and when he saves it, it isn't.

Bingo.

Does anyone actually think that if Wagner had pitched a perfect inning in the ASG anyone would say "Wow! Wagner came through in the clutch!" Hell no, they'd say "Who the #### cares, it's just the ASG. He isn't paid for the ASG."

But since he blows the lead, of course now the ASG counts as a "big game." It's the same thing we see with A-Rod/Jeter

call your new stat Slip

blown save + blown hold = slips and maybe make a rate stat out of it too.

my god, this is as creative, nay inspired, as i've felt in at least two hours. must be bed time...

But since he blows the lead, of course now the ASG counts as a "big game." It's the same thing we see with A-Rod/Jeter

Well, I can't speak for "anyone", but I know it would have been significant to me. In fact, I have been a longtime defender of Rodriguez, citing his similar postseason numbers to Jeter's, .279/.361/.483 in the postseason to Jeter's .309/.377/.469.

Trust me. If Wagner comes through in the clutch against Philly down the stretch, it'll be in my column. Ditto for October. And who knows? He might. If postseason numbers are a small sample size, then we know how small a sample one postseason, or one stretch run is.

But his numbers have suffered in pressure-packed situations. His command suffers. And this has happened enough times to be of concern- not to the point that the Mets should be pitching a lesser pitcher in these situations. But enough to be worried, and have a backup plan in a huge game.

I would say this:

- I agree that comparison of save pct for all RP is silly, for reasons stated above.

- Wagner I suspect HAS blown more games in worse ways than is typical for a high-skills RP. Admittedly I haven't seen a formula yet.

Among the possibilities:
- agreed-upon rivals
- coming off losing streaks
- pct of saves blown with multiple-run leads (this might yield what is sought)

Perhaps rather than save percentage, the relevant metric of reliever effectiveness is (SV + H) / (SV + H + BS). Is there something I'm overlooking about this?

One thing that I can think of. Not all blown saves are created equal: sometimes the reliever allows the tying run, and sometimes he also allows the go-ahead run. The second kind is maybe twice as bad as the first kind. Usually the official stats tell the difference, because in the second kind he picks up the loss.

So, how about (SV + H - L) / (SV + H + BS)? The only problem I see with this is that you can also get a loss if you come into a tie game.

The sample size may be small enough to look at each blown save in a targeted closer's portfolio, no?